ESSENTIALS

OVERVIEW

For the third straight year, Michigan Hockey is in the Frozen Four. In 2022, their super team rolled into Boston and was felled in overtime by eventual national champion Denver. In 2023, their Adam Fantilli-led squad arrived in Tampa and lost a tight game to eventual national champion Quinnipiac. Now the Wolverines head to St. Paul, Minnesota, the site of their 2018 Frozen Four appearance, looking to snap an 0-4 drought in national semifinal matchups since their last win in that round in 2011 (also St. Paul). That year Michigan was an underdog to #2 national seed North Dakota, in a matchup most similar to the one unfolding tonight, Michigan against #1 national seed Boston College, a super team that has rarely been beaten this season. 

THE US

Michigan's 2023-24 squad had a much bumpier arc than either the 2023 or 2022 teams that played in the Frozen Four. Where those teams were top five outfits nearly wire to wire, this Michigan team was on the outside of the bubble with only two weeks to go in the regular season. A messy year that saw defensive struggles, injury problems, bad luck, and sometimes spotty goaltending meant that Michigan did not find their stride until late, just in time to save the season and punch their ticket to the big dance. Though they are just 23-14-8 on the season and the national #10 seed (3rd in the Midwest regional), they've won 8 of their last 10 games, with one of those two losses being an OT game played under "contested refereeing". 

For those just tuning into hockey for tonight's game, Michigan is a high scoring offensive team with some of the most skilled scorers in the country. Forwards Gavin Brindley, Rutger McGroarty, Dylan Duke, and Frank Nazar lead the way offensively, while getting help from Seamus Casey on defense. They boast one of the best power plays NCAA Hockey has seen in some time and have generally had no problem filling the net this season. Defense has been more of an issue, but this Michigan team has improved on the penalty kill and generally done a much better job suppressing chances against over the last 6-7 weeks. Stronger play from veteran defensemen Marshall Warren and Jacob Truscott has helped in that regard and when they get saves from 5th year goalie Jacob Barczewski, Michigan is a hard team to beat. All of that was on display the last time Michigan played, when they beat two top five teams in the span of three days, knocking off North Dakota 4-3 and then getting revenge on Michigan St. with a 5-2 win to punch a ticket to St. Paul.  

[AFTER THE JUMP: The Them]

[Meg Kelly/BC Athletics]

THE THEM: Personnel 

Boston College was a middling team last season that transformed into a fire breathing dragon in the summer because they reeled in one of the greatest recruiting classes in NCAA Hockey history. Most of that recruiting class was that they copy-and-paste'd one of the best lines in USNTDP history, all of whom were first round picks. That would be Will Smith (4th overall - SJS) centering Ryan Leonard (8th overall - WSH) and Gabe Perreault (23rd overall - NYR), a line that combined to smash USA Hockey records on their 18U team last season and surprise, surprise, they have been a buzzsaw in college hockey as well. These three players have combined to score 72 goals in the team's 39 games this season, nearly two per game. 

Smith is the brainy centerman, seen as a high skill, creative distributor. His raw upside, hockey IQ, and abilities playing a premium position made him of the highest value to NHL teams. Smith leads the team with 46 assists and 69 points, both of those the most in the NCAA. If you want highlights, click here. Yet in spite of the exploits of Smith, you can make the case that Leonard is the better college player right now, with a bit more of a muscular frame and an aggressive, physical game. Leonard's not just an untalented tough guy though, as his hands are wicked and his shot is no doubt NHL caliber, in addition to him being the most defensively sound player on the line. This goal against Michigan Tech in the first round was GROSS: 

Leonard's scored 31 goals this season, third in the NCAA, including 13 on the power play. The kid can flat out rip it, shooting 19.7% on the season over roughly four shots per game. Leonard's strength, aggression, and skill come together on plays like this one: 

He throws a check to get the puck free, gets on it, weaves through multiple bodies, and then uncorks a filthy backhand pass for a tap in. The goalscorer there is Perreault, the third member of this group. Son of NHLer and faceoff demon Yanic Perreault, Gabe is a winger who wasn't as sought after by NHL teams due to perceived limitations in the roundedness of his game (and his smaller size), but no one doubts that Perreault can create offense. He created loads of it at the USNTDP and has put up 59 points in 34 games this season as a freshman, the second highest clip on the team besides Smith. All three of these players can pass, shoot, and think the college game at an exceptional level. 

What makes Boston College truly terrifying, though, is that as great as this line is, none of these three players are the best current college player on the team. That's because they also have Cutter Gauthier, the 5th overall pick in the 2022 draft taken by Philadelphia (since traded to Anaheim after a messy saga far too long to discuss in this preview). Gauthier has scored 37 freakin' goals in 39 games this season in his sophomore campaign, attributable to his wicked release and his love of volume shooting. Gauthier has taken 23 more shots than any other player in college hockey and is scoring them at 18.0%, doing it mostly of the even strength variety (he does have 13 PPGs) while driving a line of his own without two future NHL studs on his wings. The extra year of experience of college hockey that Gauthier has on the Smith/Leonard/Perreault trio has made him that much more dangerous and has allowed him to shatter NCAA U20 goalscoring milestones. Highlights: 

Gauthier centers a line with a pair of sophomores, Oskar Jellvik and Andre Gasseau, who have combined for 25 goals. Gasseau had a sweet rip on a goal against Quinnipiac, but neither guy is perceived in professional circles anywhere in the same zip code as the big four for Boston College. That Gauthier is able to be as devastating as he is at even strength while playing with Jellvik and Gasseau is a testament to the season he's having and the greatness of the college player he's become. 

While Boston College's top two lines are unbelievably dominant, they don't get a ton in the way of depth scoring. 74.9% of their goals this season have been scored by one of the six forwards on their top two lines. Step beyond those six forwards and only one other player on the team has scored more than 5 goals, grad transfer center Jack Malone. A decent player at Cornell, Malone transferred in during the summer and has had a decent year, 12-13-25 in 39 games. He scored the OT winner to defeat Quinnipiac as his career defining moment. In the QPac game Malone centered Jamie Armstrong, a BU transfer (completed the Tyler Duke/Justin Boren I guess), and Colby Ambrosio, who stood out to me as a speedy winger but apparently Ambrosio has been unable to do much with that speed, as he's scored just two goals in 38 games. 

The fourth line has contributed almost nothing in the way of offense. Their lineup against QPac saw Mike Posma centering Connor Joyce and Gentry Shamburger (our name of the week), three players who have combined for five total goals. Posma plays a role on the penalty kill, but if any of these three players are the ones doing the scoring on Michigan, the Wolverines are in big trouble. TOI data is not available publicly for NCAA but I’d guess they don’t play the 4th line much at all. 

[Meg Kelly/BC Athletics]

On defense, I am a big fan of Eamon Powell. A 4th rounder of Tampa Bay in the 2020 draft, he's a four year player who has scored nearly a point per game as a senior due to his role on the top power play unit and ability to move the puck. I wouldn't mistake him for Lane Hutson or Seamus Casey in terms of dynamic puck-rushing, but he made several excellent passes against Quinnipiac and showed some shiftiness at the point on the PP. Powell plays with freshman Drew Fortescue on the top pair, Fortescue appearing to be more of a stay-at-home sort of defenseman. 

Their second pair against Quinnipiac featured Lukas Gustafsson and Jacob Bengtsson, who have very similar stat lines offensively, three goals each and right around 15 points each. They seemed fine, both playing on BC's second power play unit but I didn't have too many notes on them. The third pair features Aidan Hreschuk, a former 3rd round pick of Carolina who is decently well regarded in NHL circles. Now as a junior, Hreschuk has experience that his partner, Aram Minnetian, lacks. The freshman was a 4th rounder of Dallas in this most recent draft, having scored nine points this season but one of those was awfully big- Minnetian joined the rush and got a pass from Gauthier, which he powered by Quinnipiac goalie Vinnie Duplessis to tie the game with under five minutes to play. That one saved BC's season, so for as top heavy as the offense seems, it was a 3rd liner in Malone and a defender in Minnetian who rose to the occasion when it was all on the line. 

[BC Athletics]

THE THEM: At a glance

Boston College is 33-5-1 on the season, having put together an exceptional campaign. They were 20-3-1 in the Hockey East, finishing four points clear of rival BU to win the regular season title. They played a surprisingly close game with UConn in the first round of the conference tournament but then easily blew out two tourney teams in UMass/BU in the semifinals and finals of the tournament at TD Garden. In the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament, BC played the last team in the field (Michigan Tech) in a game that was closer than anticipated for awhile before putting the game away in the third. Then they played Quinnipiac in the Regional Final, a game that saw BC on the ropes, trailing 2-0, 3-2 and 4-3 before a late tying goal and then the OT winner. Was that the lone scare BC will see in this tourney? Or is it a harbinger of a disappointing end to the season in St. Paul? 

Any way you slice it, this Boston College team is indeed really good. They've won 14 straight games and 19 of 20. They've lost only five games and all five were either one goal defeats or two goal defeats with an empty netter tossed in (so, essentially a one goal defeat). There has never been a single point this entire season where they had an off night, put up a stinker and got punked. Their "off nights" are losing by one goal to a really good team. But we should point out those off nights because they do exist. As I mentioned, BC had close calls recently with UConn and QPac (the Connecticut schools are scary, I guess) and when you look at their five losses, they did lose to really good teams. They lost to two of the other Frozen Four teams (Denver, BU) once each, in addition to a loss to Maine (who was the national #6 seed) and then one loss each to Providence and Northeastern, who were both bubble out teams. With three losses to teams in the national top six and two OT wins over QPac (national #9), the idea that national #10 Michigan (who is playing much better than that ranking as of late) could beat them isn't crazy. 

One interesting wrinkle in BC's profile is that they don't dominate play the way that you'd expect. Their possession numbers are surprisingly middling, 51.7% CF% (shot attempts) at even strength and 52.4% shot share at even strength. For example, BC was tied with Michigan Tech in shots through two periods in that first round matchup. There may be some score effects going on (BC is leading a lot so they don't need to press as much as other teams) but Michigan is higher than BC in both metrics, so it is quite possible that Michigan will outshoot Boston College and have the puck more often. It's just tended to be that that hasn't mattered because Boston College's goalie is good and their shooters can score a lot more goals on fewer shots than other teams due to their shooting talent. 

That's the potential vulnerability here. Michigan is a pretty solid possession team and can potentially dictate that game a little bit by having the puck more and having shooters who can go toe-to-toe in some ways with BC's (not quite to the same level, but closer than anyone else in the NCAA). Quinnipiac's 1-3-1 neutral zone forecheck flustered BC in the third period of their game while the Bobcats were protecting the lead and there's definitely a pathway to victory between Michigan having the shooters to solve BC's goaltending unlike most teams, Michigan's puck possession allowing them to dictate play a little more, and then having good structure in the neutral zone to slow down BC's rush offense. Following that formula crisply- and maybe getting a couple bounces- is the logical way to imagine a Michigan victory. 

SPECIAL TEAMS

This semifinal is the matchup of the season for people who love power plays: Michigan #1 vs. Boston College #2. The Wolverines saw their PP percentage dip some after having an uncharacteristically clunky performance against MSU with the man-advantage due in part to the absence of Seamus Casey. The good news is that Casey is back so Michigan's 34.5% PP should be fully operational. Boston College sits in 2nd nationally with a 29.9% power play, a unit that has the ability to do stuff like this to you: 

That little move by Powell at the top is the stuff I was talking about liking with him. Little bit of stickwork to shake the defenders and open up an angle, and then Cutter Gauthier goes all Nikita Kucherov with a slap-pass to Leonard for the tap-in. G-R-O-S-S. BC's top power play unit consists of the big four + Powell, usually with Powell and Smith at the points, Gauthier and Perreault on the wings, and Leonard screening in front. I doubt either team will go to their second units a ton in this game, but for the record, BC's second unit against QPac consisted of Gasseau, Jellvik, Malone (all the non-elite scoring forwards) + Bengtsson/Gustafsson (the 2nd pair), a 3 F/2 D look. 

Boston College is not bridesmaid on the penalty kill however, as they are 1st nationally at a sterling 88.6%. Special teams: immaculate. BC's PK unit filters through different forwards, including Rosma, Gasseau, Leonard, Gauthier, and others. They provide decent pressure, block shots, and challenge shooters well. If there was one team that could break them down, it would be Michigan's exceptional PP, but it won't be easy and most teams get stifled. As for Michigan, their PK is middling nationally but has been much better in the second half, as has been discussed often. It will get its stiffest test of the season in Boston College. 

[Richard T Gagnon/Getty]

GOALIES 

The other key part of Boston College's recruiting class for the ages is they also scooped up a very good goalie recruit in Jacob Fowler. Fowler was picked in the early 3rd round by Montreal (6th goalie off the board, so Portillo range) and has proceeded to post a .924 SV% as a freshman. Not bad! He's tied for fifth nationally with that SV% clip, a tie he's in with Notre Dame's Ryan Bischel, who we believed to be the best goalie in the B1G. Yeah. What I will say about Fowler is that for a young, high skill team, Boston College protects him pretty well. They exposed him to very little in the way of dangerous rush chances/breakaways against Quinnipiac and play with structure in the defensive zone. If you can get shooters clean against him, Michigan is one of the few teams in the country that has the sort of shooters who could solve a goalie like that. 

On Michigan's side of things there's Jacob Barczewski, who is in for a tremendous challenge. The Eagles will be by far the best offensive team he's faced all season but the good news is he's coming in hot. Against two strong offensive teams in the regional, Barczewski played some of the best hockey that he has all year, stopping 62 of 67 shots for a .925 SV%. He's up to .909 on the season, generally pretty solid but a little bit of a rollercoaster from week to week. Michigan will need Barczewski on his game. 

[Bill Rapai]

KEYS 

Put pucks on net and create traffic in front. Every single goal Quinnipiac scored against Boston College in the last round was some variation of putting pucks on net with traffic around or playing for rebounds. No high skill goals or shooters beating Fowler clean... good old-fashioned mucking it up. Their first goal was a high slot deflection on the PP, the second was a seeing eye shot through traffic, the third was a point shot knocked down in front and put in on the rebound, and the fourth was a shot wide that kicked off the end boards to a waiting shooter on the far side. We saw Michigan have success scoring this kind of goal against North Dakota, methinks it'll be very useful against a good goalie like Fowler. This and counterpunching using high skill off the rush will probably be Michigan's two best methods to scoring. 

Have Jacob Barczewski be good. Versions of this bullet point are on every preview I do but this one more than ever is critical. Michigan cannot win this game if Jacob Barczewski is bad. Or average. They need the same goalie who played in Maryland Heights two weeks ago. Ideally Michigan plays a great defensive game and cuts down on rush chances against, forcing Boston College to play to the perimeter in zone. But even if they do that, stopping Cutter Gauthier or Ryan Leonard from the circle when kept clean is very different than stopping an Ohio State or even Michigan State shooter from the circle. These are the very best shooters in college hockey, guys who could be shooting it in the net 20 times a year on NHL goalies right now if you gave them those looks. Barczewski needs to find the spirit of Shawn Hunwick for this game. 

Don't beat yourself. Look, Boston College's shooting and passing talent alone is going to create a couple goals for their team. Just the way it is. You're not shutting this team out and you're probably not holding them to one. Their shooters and skill are just so overwhelming. But there is the possibility that you can hold them to 2 or 3 and that requires not beating yourself. Don't commit egregious turnovers in zone that leave your goalie out to dry and limit odd-man opportunities through the neutral zone. Michigan has grown up in this phase of the game a lot over this season, but tonight is the final exam. 

PREDICTIONS

Are stupid in a one game hockey playoff