Michigan's got a few 2025 commits that have yet to receive Hellos and today we start with the most star-studded one, 4* QB Carter Smith. Lost in all the fanfare surrounding Michigan's failed pursuit of mega QB prospect Bryce Underwood is the fact that the Wolverines already picked up a commitment from a pretty highly regarded QB in Smith, who joined the '25 class in November. Today we will get to know a potential QB Of The Future. 

GURU RATINGS 

Smith is a legitimate 4* to three of the four services and is either top 100 or borderline top 100 to Rivals and On3. The Rivals ranking is rather remarkable, Smith being bumped up from unranked to top 60 nationally in one national rankings update. The negative site on Smith is 247, pegging Smith as a 3* presently, but even that ranking is damn close to being a 4*. Based on Seth's 5 star scale, it is exactly one, 4.00. The consensus rankings thus have Smith a good bit higher, with the 247 Composite bordering on 4.5* status. Based on Seth's database, Smith is 17th out of 43 QBs that Michigan has recruited since 1990 in terms of rankings. Not too bad! 

[AFTER THE JUMP: do you remember JJ McCarthy?]

SCOUTING 

The first thing you learn when you look at scouting reports for Carter Smith is he is an athlete. From On3's EJ Holland: 

Smith was actually a highly touted baseball prospect that threw in the 90s as a sophomore. He could have earned millions by graduation and instead passed it up to follow his passion — football. Smith, who also competes in the 400m relay and does high and long jumps

A multi-sport athlete (he was a legit baseball prospect... on track for SEC offers and selection in the top five rounds of the MLB Draft), Smith's athleticism and abilities as a running QB get mentioned by pretty much every scouting report of him. His nature as a lanky, rather slim mobile QB earns him frequent comparisons to one JJ McCarthy. EJ again: 

Michigan has had plenty of success over the last few years thanks to the athleticism of JJ McCarthy. Smith is obviously a special athlete and once he polishes up as a passer, he has McCarthy-like ability.

That same article includes quotes from Smith's dad, who is very eager to offer the comparison himself, saying "I think he’s almost a carbon copy of JJ McCarthy". He then continues with something that at the very least would seem to suggest that Smith's brain and view of football is identical to McCarthy's: 

Penn State game, they ran it 30 times in a row. That kind of stuff fires us up. Carter loves that. If they can’t stop it, why change it? We’re not about throwing it 60 times a game. There is a toughness in that program that Carter really enjoyed seeing. That was definitely a big part for him.

When some people ask "what QB wants to play for a team that runs it 30 times in a row?", you can give them the name "Carter Smith".

But how about a more general scouting report? Let's go to On3's rankings director Charles Power ($): 

Carter has a lot of ability as a dual-threat quarterback and is one of the top baseball players in the state of Florida. He’s a true athlete at quarterback when you look at what he can do in the run game. His improvisational ability and his ability to get in the end zone with his legs. He can do a lot of things from an improvisational athletic perspective. 

Power went on to investigate the JJ comparisons himself: 

“I see a lot of stylistic similarities between (Smith) and JJ,” Power said. “I would give McCarthy the edge in terms of arm talent. But the play style, athleticism and fit in Michigan’s offense is very similar" 

So an athletic guy who can improvise and thrives outside of structure. But how is he as an actual passer? Most scouts like Smith's arm strength and talent, but they are universal in their belief that the throwing mechanics and footwork need to be cleaned up, which is what will keep Smith from being a 5* as JJ McCarthy was. EJ saw Smith in person and came away with these as major areas for improvement ($): 

Smith almost has a shot-put like release, which more than likely stems from his baseball background. He can often ‘push’ the ball when going deep. Smith, who throws in the 90s, also fires it in at full speed short-intermediate. He needs to learn how and when to add touch to his passes. And that starts by cleaning up his release and overall throwing motion. 

This comes out in the tape of Smith for sure. In my personal review of the footage, the footwork comes out as an even bigger area of concern, which EJ says Smith is aware of: 

Smith also needs to improve his footwork. In talking with his father, that’s going to be a key focus throughout the offseason. Smith also has happy feet in the pocket and looks to run more often than he should. It never seemed like he was really comfortable setting his feet and going through reads. 

Touch The Banner's review of Smith gives more specifics on the issues with Smith's footwork: 

There are even times where he crow-hops into a throw, which you can’t get away with much in college (or the NFL) because of the tighter windows and the requirement to get the ball out quickly. Taking the time to crow-hop means the receiver is going to be covered by the time the ball gets there unless he’s wide open on a blown coverage of some sort.

Magnus also offers some specifics on the throwing mechanics: 

He holds the ball down by his belly button, which elongates his release, and he doesn’t keep two hands on the ball. He also tends to hop around the pocket in herky-jerky motions rather than using smoother footwork with shorter steps, which is going to mess with accuracy. 

247's Director of Scouting Andrew Ivins has a free scouting report on Smith's 247 page goes into detail on Smith as a passer as well: 

A bit unorthodox as a passer with a lower release point, but makes things happen more times than not, showing plenty of field command. Has operated primarily out of a pro-style spread attack the past few years and found tons of success coordinating run-pass options as he can evade defenders and change directions while keeping his eyes down field. Can generate plenty of whip and attack the sticks, but must get more consistent with his ball placement as he tends to miss low.

With all this talk of Smith as a passer and how much he needs to improve on, it's worthwhile to note a couple things about him. The first is that Smith has improved as a HS QB pretty consistently since he began his career (was a freshman starter), limiting turnovers as a junior relative to his sophomore year. Here's the coach's take on it ($): 

He came back sophomore year, and you’re like ‘holy crap, your best player is better than he was before.’ He did it again from sophomore to junior year. He made another leap. Two big things really helped him in the offseason. One, he had time to live in the weight room and put some muscle mass on. His speed has even improved a lot. Two, he really spent a lot of time with his receivers. They did a lot of throwing and catching on their own. 

The second reason for optimism with Smith is that while he lacks polish as a passer, that's completely understandable because he hasn't received anywhere near the same resources as comparable top QBs. He only recently began to focus on football full-time and hire a QB specialist. He hasn't done any camps besides the Elite 11 (citations for both in the above article). Smith is a kid who appears to love sports and only recently decided to specialize the way some QBs have been doing for years. How much polish Smith can put on his game now that he's attempting to do so will be decisive. 

Finally, since we're on Harbaugh Watch, we might as well ask if writing this Hello was pointless. If Jim Harbaugh leaves, will Smith bolt out the door? Negative ($): 

If Harbaugh leaves and Sherrone Moore is the guy, I would expect that to have no impact on Smith’s pledge, especially if Campbell remains on staff. ... In fact, Smith posted a message with ‘those who stay will be champions’ shortly after Ewald backed out of his verbal pledge on Monday night. As I’ve written before, Smith committed to Michigan as a whole. He loves the university and the program. Smith is happy with his commitment to U-M despite the ongoing Jim Harbaugh saga

Seems like the sort of guy who was born to be a Michigan Man™. 

OFFERS 

Smith held offers from the three Florida powers (Miami/FSU/Florida) who were the subject of much of Smith's recruiting buzz before Michigan seized the reins. The Smith/Michigan love affair was strong and moved quickly, with a commitment coming well over a year before signing day for the 2025 class, so there really wasn't much of a chance for there to be a ton of other schools with top tier interest. The list of the other offers are merely that, teams that offered and not much else happened. PSU, Minnesota, Maryland, and Purdue also offered out of the B1G, Cincy and WVU out of the "Big 12", VT, BC, NCST out of the ACC, and Ole Miss and Texas A&M out of the SEC. A legit 4* prospect, in other words. 

HIGH SCHOOL 

Smith plays for Bishop Verot Catholic High School in Fort Myers, FL. The school had an enrollment of 860 in 2023 and has been around for some six decades, producing a handful of baseball players who reached the MLB, most notably Daniel Vogelbach of the New York Mets. In football, the Bishop Verot Vikings are a powerhouse in their level of competition (2S), going 11-2 this past season with Smith as their starting QB. They were eventually defeated by under-seeded Booker in the 2S quarterfinals, but both losses in 2023 were by one score. They went 10-3 last season as well and you figure the Vikings will be contenders for the state title again in fall 2024 when Smith is a senior. 

STATS

247 has us covered here so I can copy straight from Smith's page on the site: 

2023: Gatorade Florida Player of the Year. Threw for 2,223 yards with 29 TD and 4 INT while completing 133 of 213 pass attempts (62.4%). Also ran for 715 yards and 19 TD while averaging 6.9 ypc. Posted an 11-2 record, leading Bishop Verot to the quarterfinals of Florida’s 2S playoffs.

2022: Went 10-3 as a starter. Completed 185 of 296 pass attempts (62.5%) for 3,104 yards with 29 TD and 6 INT. Also ran for 692 yards and 19 TD while averaging 5.2 ypc.

2021: Threw for 2,025 yards with 15 TD to go against 9 INT as a freshman on varsity. Also ran for 581 yards and 6 TD.

Cutting down on INTs is always a good sign. 

FAKE 40 TIME 

Smith's Perfect Game page lists an officially timed 30 yard dash from July 7, 2019. If you don't want to do the math, Smith was 12 years old when that time was recorded, which was a 4.33. Good, but obviously Smith's body is radically different now at age 16-17 than it was at 12. A bit more useful is the 60 yard dash time that Perfect Game has recorded from July 8, 2021, which was a 7.10. Smith was 14 then, so likely more physically mature but still not necessarily recent. These were timed at PG events, so they are official and get no FAKES but I would like if we could get something more timely on Smith. 

VIDEO 

Junior year highlights from his Hudl page (check out the block at 0:27): 

ETC 

Appears to enjoy cowboy aesthetics. Baseball and track athlete. Named Gatorade Player of the Year for Florida HS football as a junior. 

PREDICTION BASED ON FLIMSY EVIDENCE 

Smith is a prospect I like quite a bit. I'm a pretty big believer in the necessity for great QBs to be able to move around in the pocket and potentially improvise/scramble in modern football and I like that Smith very much has that ability. He's also got more of an ideal height/length for the position relative to Jadyn Davis, so I think it's fair to deem him the higher ceiling prospect, or the one with more NFL potential if it all goes right. I like the multi-sport athlete element and he seems to have all the right intangibles to succeed as a QB. Culturally, he seems like a perfect fit at Michigan. 

There are clear downsides, the lack of polish as a passer being the most notable, but his high school completion percentage encourages me. Low 60% range isn't ideal but it's also not Joe Milton, who was sub-50% in HS. That, to me, is a major red flag, whereas Smith is more in the range of "okay, we can work with this". Drew Allar topped out at 59.9% as a senior, so Smith is a bit above that too. The mechanics seem like they are in need of considerable refinement (his tape is definitely a bit odd), but there is time to do that. Hopefully hiring a QB tutor will begin the process of refining Smith's throwing motion and funky footwork now that he's focusing on football full-time, a task that will have to be completed at Michigan once he arrives in 2025. 

I don't believe that any true freshman not named Trevor Lawrence should be starting at QB in modern college football, but Smith definitely does not seem ready even on that scale. Davis, by comparison, will likely be much closer to being a starter when he arrives. Smith probably needs to sit for a couple years, but at the very least one, while Michigan works on polishing his arm. But perhaps by his second or third season, if all goes right, you could have a high-level NCAA starting QB who may resemble a certain national championship winner just a little bit. 

UPSHOT FOR THE REST OF THE CLASS

Smith is one of Michigan's three commitments currently in the 2025 class. The other two are TE Eli Owens and DL Bobby Kanka (a fourth, CB Chris Ewald, recently decommitted), who I am planning to do Hellos of soon. The class is still in its very early stages and recruiting will not resume in any major manner until the Jim Harbaugh coaching situation is resolved. After that, Michigan will begin building their class and it's nice to begin building with your QB already in the fold. While there was some talk about taking two QBs in the class (especially when the Underwood sweepstakes were ongoing), it doesn't seem like that is terribly likely now. Michigan likes Smith and is comfortable with him being The Guy in 2025 at the QB position. Smith figures to be a vocal recruiter moving forward to help Michigan cobble a group of talented players together.