WELL MICHIGAN STATE LOST TO MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE. THAT WAS FUNNY.

[clears throat] and now on to the evening games:

Thomas Walkup

Third Window

7. Wisconsin – 10. Pitt (6:50, TNT)

In one of the better games of the day, Wisconsin takes on Pittsburgh in Greg Gard’s first game as the head coach of the Badgers. UW had been playing extremely well until the Big Ten Tournament, where they dropped a surprising L against Nebraska. Wisconsin is the type of team that can grind it out against Pitt: Nigel Hayes, Vitto Brown, and Ethan Happ are a powerful front line, and all three can score from multiple places on the floor. Wisconsin’s calling card is still its impressive defense – the Badgers actually have allowed a very high % on opponents’ three-pointers, which would suggest that their defensive efficiency is weighed down by that randomness. It’s still kind of hard to get a grasp on Wisconsin because of their iffy guard play, but they should play better than they did against Nebraska.

Pitt was a middling team in the ACC this year, but between a good non-conference showing and a few solid wins in conference play (including three wins over former Big East rival Syracuse), they made it safely into the field. Contrary to what you’d expect from a Jaime Dixon team, Pitt is actually better on offense than they are on defense; predictably, their strength on the offensive end is derived from a strong collective offensive rebounding presence led by Michael Young and Sheldon Jeter in the frontcourt. The Panthers’ best offensive option is swingman Jamel Artis, though Young is definitely an able sidekick.

As far as 7/10 games go, this one is pretty even – Kenpom gives Wisconsin a 56% chance of advancing to the next round to (probably) face Xavier.

[After the JUMP: the rest of the 1st round]

3. West Virginia – 14. Stephen F. Austin (7:10, CBS)

A few things:

• Stephen F. Austin forces a higher percentage of turnovers than anyone else in the country. West Virginia turns it over a lot.
• West Virginia (a.k.a. “Press” Virginia) is right behind them at second nationally. Stephen F. Austin doesn’t tend to turn it over as much as they do.
• WVU has the best offensive rebounding team in the country – surely far formidable on the glass than any team SFA has faced this season.
• The Mountaineers are also deep; that’s good, because they send opponents to the free throw line at the second-highest rate in the country. They also get to the line a ton on offense.
• Over the three years of the Brad Underwood tenure at SFA, they’ve gone a combined 53-1 in Southland Conference play, and have made the NCAA Tournament in all three years.
• The veteran Lumberjack team is rated 33rd nationally by Kenpom, suggesting that they may be severely underseeded.

This game seems bound for chaos. Kenpom gives SFA a 30% chance of pulling the upset – far higher than a typical 14-seed can expect.

Dillon Brooks

3. Texas A&M – 14. Green Bay (7:20, TBS)

Green Bay managed to upset Valparaiso in overtime of the Horizon League semifinals – and they luckily saw Oakland fall in the other semi. Valpo and OU were clearly the class of the conference; the former had a stifling defense and the latter had a high-octane offense. It’s a shame that those two didn’t get a shot to pull an upset in March, because they’d likely fare better than Green Bay would.

Texas A&M tied for the SEC regular season title and have arguably the best team in the west region. Oversized point guard Alex Caruso and senior wing and former Houston transfer Danuel House give the Aggies plenty of firepower in the backcourt, and Tyler Davis has really impressed as a precocious freshman big. While a potential matchup against Texas could await in the Round of 32, I wouldn’t expect TAMU to look ahead and let this one slip away.

1. Oregon – 16. Holy Cross (7:27, tru TV)

Holy Cross won their play-in game, but still have a losing record: after a miracle run through the Patriot League Tournament, Bill Carmody (formerly of Northwestern (lol)) and the Crusaders still have a losing record as they prepare to face Oregon tonight. Here’s guessing the magic doesn’t continue against a team that dominated a pretty decent Pac-12 conference.

Fourth Window

2. Xavier – 15. Weber State (9:20, TNT)

All I know about Weber State is that Damian Lillard went there. Unfortunately he isn’t there any more, and Xavier should roll to an easy victory. The Musketeers have the potential to make a deep run.

6. Notre Dame – 11. Michigan (9:40, CBS)

Check out Ace’s preview for all your Michigan – Notre Dame needs.

6. Texas – 11. Northern Iowa (9:50, TBS)

It’s been a solid first season in Austin for new Longhorns head coach Shaka Smart, despite losing veteran big man Cameron Ridley to a foot injury. Texas’s older guards have stepped up under Smart: Isaiah Taylor in particular has been very good, but Javan Felix and native Michigander Eric Davis have also been bright spots for the Horns. Weirdly, Texas isn’t quite as committed to Shaka Smart’s signature suffocating press defenses, but they still hold up well on that end. Texas has been a different team since the early-season loss to Michigan – they swept West Virginia and managed a big home win over Oklahoma, finishing fourth in the nation’s toughest conference.

Northern Iowa has been playing great basketball lately; they’ve won 12 of their last 13, including an overtime win in the conference tournament semi against Wichita State and a buzzer-beater win over Evansville in the final. The Panthers wouldn’t have gotten into the tournament without the MVC auto-bid, but they’re an intriguing Cinderella possibility: they beat North Carolina earlier this year (UNC didn’t have their starting point guard, but still) and also took down Iowa State. In addition to their two wins over Wichita State, those are four high-caliber wins, proof that UNI has what it takes to beat very good teams. They have a veteran team, a good coach, and they’ve been playing great basketball.

8. Cincinnati – 9. Saint Joseph’s (9:57, tru TV)

The very last game of the first round looks like a tremendously even matchup on paper – Saint Joe’s won the A-10 tournament to get into the dance, while Cincinnati’s trademark stingy defense led them to a solid season. The Bearcats allow the lowest percentage on opponents’ two-point attempts and have the second-highest block rate in the country, so Saint Joe’s will have to hope that DeAndre’ Bembry and co. can get some easy looks inside. The Hawks aren’t a good three-point shooting team and are undersized up front, but they – like Cincinnati – win games on the defensive side of the ball.

The Bearcats aren’t an aesthetically pleasing team, but their brand of tough, physical basketball has made them close to a tournament fixture under Mick Cronin. Guard Troy Caupain is often forced to create things when the offense breaks down late in the shot clock, so his shooting percentages are low, but he adds a nice assist rate and can get to the free throw line. Big man Octavius Ellis is more impactful on the defensive end, but he’s the second option offensively for the Bearcats.

As with most 8/9 games, this is effectively a coin flip.