Big Ten Schedule React II: The Morning After
Yesterday's post came out in a rush, so I wanted to clarify a few things that I missed. Thank you to readers who pointed some of these out.
There are no more divisions. This was evident but I should have at least said the format is divisionless, with only the most important protected rivalries. There's a helpful graphic that shows the protected games and the two-plays for 2024-'25:
The Big Ten is probably not bringing them back either, because they stated they want every four-year player to get a chance to play in every Big Ten stadium during their careers. Or at least 15/16 Big Ten stadiums and Ford Field, since MSU is giving away its home games now.
The Championship Game will be one game between the top two schools. This is obviously very dumb and will lead to replays and controversies when there are multiple 1-loss teams deserving at the end of the season. In a press release last night the Big Ten clarified that they are still figuring out the tiebreaker rules for that. I cannot express the level of contempt I have for the direction they're going with this. Please somebody with any kind of sense, tell them to go to a Showcase model instead of a championship game. Three good games we haven't played yet and champions determined by best record >>>>>> replays and controversial champions.
Michigan has just six homes in 2025. They're probably talking to Oklahoma about flipping that series, that but my guess is they end up sticking with what they've got. Whatever they charged for the 2018 home schedule of Penn State, Wisconsin, Nebraska, Maryland, Indiana, WMU, and SMU they can charge for a 2025 home schedule of Ohio State, Penn State, Purdue, Northwestern, CMU, and New Mexico.
The 2024 dates might be pushed back. I have not seen it confirmed yet that the schedule will be pushed back a week to accommodate the 12-team playoff. As of last November it was under discussion according to Nicole Auerbach:
Commissioners have also sorted out the general calendar issues. Down the road, they may propose moving the entire college football season up a week to begin a full schedule the weekend before Labor Day, a stretch currently colloquially referred to as Week 0.
Moving the whole season back was not in the press release when they announced the 12-team playoff for 2024-'25. If that has been updated since please let me know and I'll note it here.
Warde fought to keep the MSU game and was absolutely correct to do so. Via Austin Meek at The Athletic (HT to reader Communist Football on the message board):
“Michigan is unique in having two games that even if, preference comes into mind, it’s really common sense that they need to be on their schedule every year,” Big Ten chief operation officer Kerry Kenny said. “Ohio State from a historical and competitive perspective, Michigan State from an in-state and historical perspective as well, and (athletic director) Warde (Manuel) was very forthright and vocal during the process that those two games needed to stay on their schedule every year.”
I hammered this point on WTKA yesterday and I'll hammer it again: Michigan is not canceling Michigan State over the tunnel incident. I agree that fan sentiment among the super-paying-attention shifted, but what hasn't shifted is that game makes big money at the gate and on television. It is an important game to most of the fanbase, an important game to the state, an important game to the players, and the only important game to Michigan State, who has just as much of a say in this as Michigan. One of Warde's major accomplishments as AD was to use the COVID season as an opportunity to get the home/road schedule with MSU moved back opposite OSU's so that there's a big rival home game to anchor the schedule every year.
I can put this into numbers because I know that they price the season tickets (seat licenses included) based on the maximum get-in price of the secondary ticket market, and I track that market. Nothing matches OSU--that was in the $450 range in 2021--but the only other game that tends to match MSU's $250 get-in maximum is Notre Dame. PSU/Wisconsin are more like $180. We'll see what Texas/Oklahoma/USC bring in the coming years, but if you can get Texas/Oklahoma/USC/Notre Dame kind of interest for a middle-of-the-pack Power 5 program every other year, a little bad behavior on their part is a small fee.
UCLA-USC is not Thanksgiving Weekend on ND@USC years. So technically UCLA could be available to play PSU or MSU that weekend.
That is all.
I’m with you here. Keep it simple. Have co- B1G champs. That worked fine for years before divisions.
The showcase is way overly complicated.
Playoff teams can be selected without the extra conference games just fine.
Not a smart approach now that USC is in the “Big 10”. It would be better to have OSU, Michigan, PSU, and USC all play each other every year. For the foreseeable future, those are the most valuable matchups by far and should be guaranteed. It’s a wasted opportunity to forgo any of these great matchups.
1 loss Wisconsin, Iowa, and Nebraska love this idea.
It's great for the fan of the regular season, but this would ultimately be the reason for less B1G teams making it into the 12-team playoff.
Traditionally, Minnesota and Illinois are much bigger rivals of Michigan than the Michigan State Agricultural College. Yost, Crisler, Kipke, Grange, Zuppke, Bierman and Bruce Smith are all rolling over in their graves.
Bruce Smith died?
Sure did--in 1967 actually. So, by now he's very dead.
"Traditionally" if you remember WW2 maybe?
Shouldn’t it be move forward vs pushed back? Kind of confused since season would start earlier but later? Like showcase model but don’t you still have to pick a 1-2 for that game? Also I am wondering how many teams would want to play more games … maybe get a bowl game but now aren’t those antiquated/players opt out?
My only thing with the showcase is:
OSU USC UM each one has a loss to the other in this group of leaders and are all 11-1. What then? Who gets to play the 4th place team and what do you do if they lose? Showcase sounds fun but who is your champion in that very plausible scenario? There is no possible way you are going into this without clear cut champions.
The Showcase 1 game doesn't have to be for the championship, but there is always a way to create matchups that will give you a non-controversial champion.
The scenario like the one you speak of happened in 2018, when OSU, Michigan, and Northwestern all finished 8-1. Ohio State had a win over Michigan, and Michigan had a win over Northwestern and a loss to Ohio State.
Since OSU and NW hadn't played each other yet, they would go in the Showcase 1 game. Michigan would get the best team they hadn't played, which was 5-4 Purdue, in the Showcase 2 game. Penn State (6-3) would get Nebraska (3-6) in the Showcase 3 game since that's the best team left that they hadn't faced.
In this scenario:
- A: If OSU beats Northwestern, OSU wins the Big Ten, since they have 1 loss and a h2h win over Michigan, the only other team that can finish with 1 loss.
- B: If Northwestern beats OSU then Michigan can win the Big Ten by beating Purdue. Michigan and Northwestern would both be 9-1, and Michigan would have the head-to-head.
- C: If Michigan loses to Purdue and Northwestern beats OSU, Northwestern is Big Ten champ, as the only 1-loss team left.
Basically the Showcase works for all scenarios because when you get to the end of the season you know what information you need to declare a champion.
The one season when things got messiest was 2016, when we finished the season with 7-2 Michigan, 8-1 Penn State, 8-1 Ohio State, and 7-2 Wisconsin in range of a championship. Penn State hadn't played Wisconsin yet so that's your Showcase 1 game. Ohio State gets Iowa (6-3) and Michigan gets Nebraska (6-3).
Scenarios where:
- A: Penn State (9-1) wins the Showcase 1 game. OSU is the only other team that can finish 9-1 and PSU has the h2h so PSU wins the B10.
- B: Wisconsin (8-2) wins the Showcase 1 game. OSU wins the B10. Why?:
- OSU (9-1) wins its Showcase game. OSU is the only 9-win team and wins the B10.
- OSU (8-2) loses its Showcase game.
- Michigan (8-2) wins its Showcase game. Now PSU, OSU, UW, and Mich are all 8-2. OSU and Michigan are both 2-1 vs the other contenders so UW/PSU are eliminated. OSU has the h2h vs Michigan and are B10 champs.
- Michigan loses its Showcase game. PSU, OSU and UW are all 8-2. OSU and Wisconsin are 2-1 vs the others so PSU is eliminated. OSU has the h2h vs Wisconsin and are B10 champs.
As you can see the tiebreakers are pretty simple, and based on head-to-head matchups, because after the Showcase games we have all of that information.
Penn State (6-3) would get Nebraska (3-6) in the Showcase 3 game since that's the best team left that they hadn't faced.
Both people who watch this extra game at a neutral site would be ecstatic. If it was at a college stadium with a weeks notice and in early December you could probably boost the attendance and viewership to the dozens.
This is really well thought out Seth excellent work. If the three top teams all have a loss only to each other how would you play that out?
OSU lost to USC
USC lost to UM
UM lost to OSU
If they all win the showcase game what is the final placing? Lots of ifs but it could happen.
Yeah, I found this awkward to read as well. I think it is the same thing semantically. He is using ‘pushed back’ when the quote says ‘moved up.’ Bottom line: season starts a week early.
Just go NFL with itt. 4 Divisions. You play everybody in your division once. Every year you pit two divisions against each other so that there is good schedule parody. Every year you play one team from the two divisions you weren't up against this year.
Everybody plays 9 games that way, you have good schedule balance in the event of tie break decisions. You cycle the division face offs every year so that you can guarantee that every team plays each other at least once every 3 seasons.
Then... you become the first league to have a 4 team playoff. Each division winner. First round is on site, ranked accoring to CFB playoff rankings. Championship game in Indy.
Then you go out and add Stanford, Oregon, Washington to get a true B1G West division. Give Notre Dame one last chance to get in as team #20.
You have the best league in CFB and none of this stupid scheduling crap that was clearly cooked up by some horrible overpaid consulting firm.
Yeah it really is the way to go. UM/OSU same division?
That is a good schedule parody.
The one thing that stands out is that if the schedule is as difficult as it looks, I would not be surprised if a 3-loss Michigan would still be in a 12-team playoff.
Texas, Oklahoma, Bama, LSU, Georgia, Tenn, Florida, A and M, Auburn
UM, OSU, USC, Penn st, Wisconsin, UCLA, Nebraska, Iowa
There are a lot of losses there. I can pretty much promise a couple teams a year having 3 losses in the playoff with these new additions to the BIGTEN/SEC. Its going to be beauty contests at the end but lets be honest SEC will be first in the pecking order.
"They price the season tickets (seat licenses included) based on the maximum get-in price of the secondary ticket market"
Somebody help me out with this. Is does this mean that if you take the cheapest get-in price for each game on the secondary market, add them up, that's the total tickets + PSD for the cheapest season tickets?
The do the same for the next pricing tier? Based on season ticket prices in recent years, that doesn't feel right. Especially this year, I can't see any game other than OSU sniffing "face value" and it will be hard for one game to make up the difference.
Don’t think USC-UCLA has been last game of season even when ND was not at USC. At least for awhile. UCLA’s last game has been against Cal I think. Weird. Oh and USC should drop ND from its schedule ASAP. Would love those Irish tears.
"Fighting" for MSU is incredibly stupid. It was obviously going to happen anyway, especially b/c MSU was no doubt fighting for it even harder.
This is why IMO Warde is a dummy. Keep your powder dry and ready for a fight that really matters. Instead, he wastes this "fight" on a certainty rather than play it like he's acquiescing and now he's owed one.
There is no powder to waste. Warde was only going to get loud over something that didn't matter. He actively avoids any situation that requires courage or principles.
This is the politician's way of looking like you're doing something, without doing anything. Scandalous hire? Crawl under a rock until it blows over. Foregone conclusion? Time to get vocal!
This is exactly right. The fact that Warde felt it necessary to aggressively lobby for putting MSU on the schedule—when MSU was going to do that lobbying for him—tells you everything you need to know about Warde's lack of savvy.
"Showcase" is Seth's personal "fetch." Stop trying to make it happen. Whether its a good idea or not, it's never going to happen.
Honestly didn’t see what was so wrong with “fetch” Regina you bitch.
My question is is anyone other than talking about this Showcase concept? It seems like a really good idea, and I hope it gets real consideration. TV has to love it, no downside.
Everything That Can Be Invented Has Been Invented--US patent office-Charles Duell circa 1899.
Enjoy living in the dark Edison .
With Oklahoma on the road, 2025 was already going to be a 6 home game season in the current division format (east had 4 home/5 away in odd years).
They ended up just keeping it East + UCLA in 2024 and West + USC in 2025 for who gets 5 home games.
It is an important game to most of the fanbase, an important game to the state, an important game to the players, and the only important game to Michigan State, who has just as much of a say in this as Michigan.
Too good. It's funny because it's true.
Thanks for the shout-out Comrade. I appreciate that there's a business interest in playing MSU...but there isn't a business interest in Michigan players being deliberately injured by MSU players. To me, the latter should be the priority.
I'm pondering if we have championship in Indianapolis and add a 3 v 4 game at Ford's Field, would the third place game improve the conferences chances of getting a second or third team into a 12 team play off? I expect the first team left out of the championship game, would typically be a bubble team for a 12 team playoff.
Personally I'd be in favor of adding a 3v4 game.
There is an outside possibility we play OSU three games in a row.
- Regular Season
- Big Ten Championship once divisions disbanded
- National Championship (particularly when field expands)
Just a reminder that Northwestern is tearing down Ryan Field/Dyche Stadium at the end of this season to build a new stadium. Plan is to have it complete by the start of the 2026 season. They would likely play their home games at Soldier Field.
Bringing west coast teams into the B1G is just plain stupid.
Comments