The Defensive Turnaround: Real or Opponent-Driven?

After Brian posted this in the Rutgers game column...

Teske back? Myles Johnson isn't exactly Luka Garza but he is shooting 53% from the floor on decent usage in Big Ten play. Teske shut him off. Johnson was 0/3 and all three of his shots might have been blocked by Teske. Indiana's Trayce Jackson-Davis had as many points (4) in the first three minutes of the Indiana-Minnesota game as he had against Michigan, when he was 2/3 from the floor. IIRC not much of De'ron Davis's game came against Teske.

Tillman did okay personally from two (6/10) but MSU collectively shot 38% from two; OSU shot 44% and Wesson's twos were mostly putbacks or fadeaway jumpers.

Teske's been very rough offensively for the last month but as Michigan's defense surges he seems to be a major part of that. A return game against Trevion Williams up next will be a good measuring stick.

...I took a look at Synergy to see if there were some explanation for Michigan's defensive improvement beyond Teske simply playing better. This led to an entire post's worth of information.

The stats that leap off Michigan's defensive page are their wildly varying abilities against certain sets. They boast a remarkably good pick-and-roll defense but are among the worst power conference programs against isolations and post-ups. Here are the numbers from Synergy for M's defense, with passes included (note: Synergy separates out putbacks from offensive rebounds, so the points per possession figures are lower than you might anticipate):

The good news: pick-and-rolls are generally better offense than post-ups and isos, so if you have to choose a play to be killer at defending, that's the right one.

After that, I wanted a good visual of Big Ten offenses and their acumen in pick-and-roll and post-up situations. I'm dire at working with anything related to Excel, so thankfully Seth put together some scatter plots for me. My (rather obvious) operating hypothesis was that Michigan would prefer to avoid good post-up teams. Here are the Big Ten's post offenses charted by frequency and efficiency:

Michigan's worst defensive performances have come against these teams almost without exception—the outlier is the first Michigan State game, when the Wolverines couldn't slow down the Winston/Tillman pick-and-roll. Iowa, led by Luka Garza, broke the original scale—Garza is so obscenely good in the paint that the Hawkeyes are more efficient on post-ups than any Big Ten team is on pick-and-rolls. Purdue will, indeed be a big test.

The Wolverines haven't had many of those lately. Indiana is their worst defensive performance by adjusted efficiency since the Jan. 17th loss at Carver-Hawkeye. Their next-worst game in that span: Illinois. Other than Ohio State, which the defense handled relatively well despite the loss, Michigan's recent stretch of good defense has come against teams that generally don't post up often or particularly well—Rutgers checks both boxes.

I'm worried a decent portion of Michigan's recent defensive turnaround is due to the competition. The stretch run will be a challenge. The next three games all come against post-oriented teams: Purdue, Wisconsin, and Ohio State. Then comes a respite against Nebraska before closing the season against Maryland, a very good team but one that Michigan is well-suited to defense.

[Hit THE JUMP for why that's the case, plus a look at the conference's defenses and a preview of Sunday's M/MSU WBB tilt.]

Pick-and-Rolls, or How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love X

Ready to see something awesome?

Okay, I need to finish my thought on Michigan's preferred opponents before getting into that. The Wolverines haven't done as well against teams that eschew the pick-and-roll in favor of other sets; Iowa and Purdue find their way in here again, as does Indiana. Michigan State is surprisingly middling given the presence of Winston and Tillman. I'm really curious to see how Michigan does against Maryland in the finale; their profile is one that Michigan should want to face. The Spartans and Scarlet Knights also fall into that category.

Anyway: holy hell, Michigan's pick-and-roll offense. It's not just that they're the most efficient in the conference by a decent margin, they're also running it way more than the rest. The Wolverines are 12th in the country in efficiency and 11th in usage for pick-and-roll possessions. The only other major conference teams that have a comparable combination of usage and efficiency are Marquette and Seton Hall, and neither quite measure up.

We've seen Michigan go to the next level this year in part because Zavier Simpson is punishing teams for ducking under screens, something his outside shooting prevented him from doing in years past. This is what happened when Rutgers started out the game going under picks:

They stopped doing that, which prevented Simpson from hitting more practice-level three-pointers. Of course, changing approaches tends to open up other avenues. In this case, Rutgers going over screens gave Simpson way more options off the dribble. He could, in this case, use a crossover to get his defender to commit to fighting over the screen, only to turn down the pick and drive for a layup:

Or, with a bit of ballhandling magic, he could split the two defenders, get into the paint, and find a shooter wide open for a corner three:

Meanwhile, in Things X Is Also Very Good At Doing, here's how Michigan stacks up against the rest of the conference in pick-and-roll defense:

Only Ohio State is better in the Big Ten on a per-possession basis—Kaleb Wesson's reshaped body has been critical for the Bucks—and Michigan faces more P&R possessions. The graph above is a good argument against Michigan wanting to face OSU any more than the regular season road game left on the schedule; Maryland and MSU again look vulnerable.

Yeah, there's one more of these to go. It's the one you don't want to see:

Yuck. At least Michigan seems to be finding a way to make post entries difficult; I was surprised that seven teams in the Big Ten face a higher share of post possessions.

WBB: Illini Down, MSU Sweep On Deck?

Naz Hillmon looked back to full strength on Wednesday [JD Scott]

After a tough two-loss week in which star Naz Hillmon was ineffective trying to play through an injured shoulder, both Michigan and Hillmon bounced back in a big way against Illinois on Wednesday night. Unfortunately, the game was on at the exact same time as the men's game, an issue that has come up seemingly every other game this season. My annoyance at not being able to watch live out of the way, Michigan took a one-point deficit into the tunnel at halftime only to win 81-59 with a huge second half.

Hillmon played 37 minutes, scored 15 points on ten shooting possessions, and hauled down four offensive rebounds among her ten total. Senior Akienreh Johnson, who's stepped up her game on both ends in the absence of injured senior Kayla Robbins, led the team with 22 points on 15 shot equivalents while stuffing the stat sheet with four rebounds, five assists, a block, and six steals. Amy Dilk had 15 points and five assists, while forward Hailey Brown added 14 points and five boards.

Michigan now stands at 17-9 (8-7 Big Ten) with four Quadrant 1 wins by RPI, which the women's game still uses for tournament selection purposes. They've bounced between the 8- and 10-line in recent weeks. Securing a road win on Sunday at Michigan State would be a great way to move towards locking up a bid. Let's look at the details, shall we?

The first time out, Michigan easily took care of the Spartans, 89-68, at Crisler. Hillmon had a monster 21-12 double-double, while Dilk led the team with 23 points and Johnson added 15. Michigan, as is their goal, dominated in the paint, where they outscored MSU 54-34.

The defense held leading MSU scorer Nia Clouden to eight points on eight shots. Taryn McCutcheon's 23 points on 16 shooting possessions was impressive but not nearly enough to overcome a lack of help; the Spartans went only 19-for-39 inside the arc.

While the Wolverines won't have Robbins, like they did in the first game, Maddie Nolan has settled into her starting spot and does a great job of doing the little things while her teammates put up numbers. Michigan has the size and talent to make this much like the first game.