pick and roll

[Marc-Gregor Campredon]

3/4/2021 – Michigan 69, Michigan State 50 – 19-2, 14-2 Big Ten, Big Ten regular season champions

I have now watched a year of pandemic sports, and I can say that the most surreal thing to watch with nobody in the stands is college basketball. This was made plain when I turned on the Baylor-WVU game, which was about 20% full, and recoiled at the strangeness of an audio record of whether things were going well or not. People were furious at certain things. It was a sad (and unwise) echo of the Before Times, and at the same time it injected a fervor into the proceedings. It felt like a top-ten matchup, or at least the ghost of one. 

Alone amongst major sports, basketball puts fans directly adjacent to proceedings. Malices at the Palace do not transpire in other sports because there are barriers between athletes and the hoi polloi. Opportunities for portly gentlemen to confront and get absolutely wrecked by Jermaine O'Neal are limited.

This gives a basketball crowd an immediacy other sports lack. When you are close to the court the sport literally vibrates for you, each bounce of the ball resonating in your ears and feet simultaneously.

On top of that, a college basketball crowd puts several hundred dubiously sober students in prime position to mock, taunt, celebrate, wobble unsteadily, and wear varied animal costumes. The reduced number of games relative to the NBA, and the various ways in which you could succeed or fail heightens stakes. An NBA version of this MSU team is wondering whether it's worth making the playoffs just to get obliterated instead of clawing desperately to maintain a 22-year tourney streak. This turns up the volume further until a band-box arena in Vermont with maybe 3,000 people in it feels like a nuclear reactor during Championship Week.

Deleting that leaves you unsteady. The resulting season feels tangibly less real.

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eight minutes to tip [Campredon]

When the confetti came down and Michigan paraded around a sign that said "2021 Big Ten Champions" I was happy, of course, but the emptiness of that building—the failure of several hundred people to appear on the court and mill around aimlessly—hit hard. A true and proper title celebration is far from the most important thing the pandemic has taken from us, but it could only be bittersweet to see Michigan be this team, to win this thing, 358 days after the 2020 Big Ten Tournament was shut down and Zavier Simpson skyhooks unceremoniously vanished into the G-League ether.

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You may have noticed that my output on this blog has dropped substantially. There have been more weekdays without a post from me in the past couple months than years-long blocks of time prior.

I have struggled. My weak connections to the people around me have been severed and the few strong ties leaned on unto their breaking point. A lack of reliance on other people has morphed from a marker of rugged individualism into a blank, gray loneliness. Existing addictions—mostly to video games, which I compulsively click at even when I am thinking about how boring this activity is—were exacerbated. Relationships strained. My personal life roiled until there was a sudden break. A look into an abyss, and a turning away from it.

I can't say the roiling has exactly stopped but at least I have a path I can see that leads forward. It is a repeated agony that it buckles and warps, cracks and shudders, rises and descends. Work gets put in and sometimes it seems like it amounts to nothing. But I suppose if Austin Davis can put Luka Garza in a blender, there is no depth that cannot be surmounted brick by brick.

This is a stupid and flimsy thing to latch onto, the actions of college players attempting to throw a ball through a hoop, but since a large part of this years-long slide was sitting on my computer staring at a football game I had no desire to comment on I'll take it and nestle it into place. Belief starts somewhere. An ability to take joy from other people starts somewhere.

Here at what feels like the end, or at least the beginning of the end, of being locked away from each other I have concluded that the only thing to do is get up in the morning and try again.

[After THE JUMP: a regular-ass bullets section! Like nothing even happened!]

drawing your attention [Marc-Grégor Campredon]

Mike Smith Starts Putting It Together



increasingly dangerous [Campredon]

As opposing defenses have placed a greater emphasis on stopping Hunter Dickinson, the court has opened up for other Wolverines to step forward. The primary beneficiary has been point guard Mike Smith, who's increasing his shot attempts from beyond the arc while slicing his previously problematic turnover numbers in half.

After removing the season-opening cupcakes, the statistical comparison between early-season Smith and the version we've seen since the Minnesota loss is stark. Everything has stayed level except for missing a couple more two-pointers (almost certainly a sample size issue), attempting an extra three-pointer per 100 possessions (given his numbers, great!), and trading off an assist or two per game to cut out an equal number of turnovers, which has been a very worthwhile swap. The result is an 11-point jump in O-Rating, per Bart Torvik:

  ORtg ARate TORate 2PM-2PA 3PM-3PA 3PA/100 FTM-FTA FTRate PPG APG TOPG
Prev. 9 Games 106.0 29.5 30.2 14-33 (42.4%) 11-22 (50.0%) 4.6 12-15 (80.0%) 27.3 8.1 6.0 3.0
Last 5 Games 117.2 26.3 16.0 7-22 (31.8%) 8-14 (57.1%) 5.5 7-10 (70.0%) 27.8 9.0 4.6 1.4

The increased attention on Dickinson has helped Smith. The more important factor, though, is his improved comfort level against the size and speed of Big Ten defenses. A lot of his turnovers earlier in the year were passes that didn't make it through the crowd.

You can see the game slowing down for him. The little hesitation move on this pick-and-roll drive forces the defense to commit before Smith makes the pass, which allows him time to make the correct read to find the right angle to get the ball through clean:

Over the full season, Smith is posting strong numbers as a pick-and-roll ballhandler when you include his passes. He’s slightly above-average as a scorer but his passing puts him in the 85th percentile overall as a P&R ballhandler anyway. If he keeps the turnovers down, the efficiency of these plays will take a substantial leap, too:

  %Time Poss Points PPP %ile FG eFG% TO% FT% Score%
Smith Shot/TO 33.8 69 54 0.783 60th 21-46 48.9 26.1 7.2 36.2
Smith Pass 66.2 135 155 1.148 81st 61-113 63.7 11.9 5.2 48.9
OVERALL 204 209 1.025 85th 82-159 59.4 16.7 5.9 44.6

Smith has done a nice job of spreading his passes between kickouts to shooters, dumpoffs to the roll man, and quick-hitters to the occasional cutter. Finding the big man on the roll is generally the most efficient way to end a ball screen for any team—save for hitting cutters, because when that happens the other team usually fell asleep, and that happens far less often—and Michigan is no exception with Hunter Dickinson usually on the receiving end of those plays.

Only two Big Ten players, D’Mitrik Trice and Marcus Carr, have hit the roll man more than the 44 times Smith’s posted this season and neither crack a point per possession on those plays while Smith’s in elite territory at 1.23:

  %Time Poss Points PPP %ile FG eFG% TO% FT% Score%
Roll Man 32.6 44 54 1.227 80th 23-33 72.7 18.2 6.8 59.1
Spot Up 57.8 78 82 1.051 72nd 29-68 63.7 10.3 2.6 39.7
Cutter 9.6 13 19 1.462 83rd 9-12 75.0 0.0 15.4 69.2
OVERALL 135 155 1.148 81st 61-113 63.7 11.9 5.2 48.9

Smith has increasingly gone to the bounce pass, which turns his height (or lack thereof) into an asset instead of a detriment as he threads the needle between taller defenders:

His skip passes are getting through more often, too.

[Hit THE JUMP for Smith's P&R scoring and lethal transition work, plus updates on the BTT, an injury to Ayo Dosonmu, and more.]

a master in chaos [Marc-Gregor Campredon]

Previously: Part One, Part Two. If you're looking for the Rutgers preview it's here.

You're definitely going to want to at least read part two of this series, which explains the stats I'm using below and details the 2009-14 seasons, before moving on to the rest of this post. Ideally, you'll read part one, as well.

Now that you're caught up, let's get to it.

2014-15: Bad Wheels

Team Stats: 27.7% pick-and-rolls + passes (#36 in country), 0.911 points per play (#62)

The Ballhandlers:

  P&R Plays (Own Offense) PPP on Own Offense (%ile) P&R Plays (Passes) PPP on Passes (%ile) Total P&R Plays Overall P&R PPP. (%ile) Keep %
Spike Albrecht 65 0.815 (70%) 98 1.276 (92%) 178 1.092 (93%) 36.5%
Caris LeVert 87 0.644 (35%) 58 0.862 (34%) 145 0.731 (28%) 60.0%
Derrick Walton 52 0.635 (33%) 61 0.967 (54%) 113 0.814 (47%) 46.0%
Zak Irvin 60 0.783 (63%) 43 1.395 (96%) 103 1.039 (90%) 58.3%
MAAR 39 0.872 (79%) 19 1.737 (100%) 58 1.155 (96%) 67.2%

The Screeners:

  Pop Plays (%) Pop PPP (%ile) Roll Plays Roll PPP (%ile) Slip Plays (%) Slip PPP (%ile) Overall Plays Overall PPP (%ile)
Max Bielfeldt 12 (36.4%) 1.167 (88%) 19 (57.6%) 1.000 (30%) 2 (6.1%) 2.000 (—) 33 1.121 (76%)
Ricky Doyle 1 (3.6%) 2.000 (—) 26 (92.9%) 1.308 (74%) 1 (3.6%) 0.000 (—) 28 1.286 (90%)
Zak Irvin 9 (69.2%) 1.222 (—) 4 (30.8%) 2.000 (—) 13 1.462 (96%)
Mark Donnal 1 (10%) 3.000 (—) 9 (90%) 1.556 (—) 10 1.700 (99%)

I almost didn't include this season or the next because of Michigan's injury issues, then decided it was useful to see what happens when a team's two best perimeter players get hurt in the same season.

While neither Caris LeVert nor Derrick Walton were producing particularly well in the pick-and-roll before their respective foot injuries, we saw later that these injuries delayed breakouts into effective players—Walton, in particular, eventually became a great P&R ballhandler.

The players that remained were effective but one-dimensional. Spike Albrecht drove to pass. Zak Irvin and Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman hunted shots off of screens. Irvin, defying reputation, struck the best balance between shooting and passing, and he was a very effective passer. Only MAAR was above-average at generating his own offense off of screens, though.

Derrick Walton's foot injury stunted a developing rapport with Ricky Doyle

Michigan was also working with a limited group of finishers. Ricky Doyle was the best roll man but was a roll man only. Max Bielfedlt(!) ended up with the most plays among screeners even though he was a 30th-percentile finisher on the roll; he salvaged decent efficiency with some pick-and-pop jumpers. If Zak Irvin was setting a screen, it was to pop or slip for a jump shot.

This marks the first season since 2008-09 that Michigan's pick-and-roll usage went down; they also slipped 40 spots in the efficiency rankings. This team was going to drop off with the departures of Nik Stauskas, Glenn Robinson III, and Jordan Morgan, then injuries made matters worse. Even if LeVert and Walton weren't high-level P&R ballhandlers at this point, their spot-up shooting could've helped.

Even with all that, Michigan's pick-and-roll offense ranked in the 83rd percentile by points per play. They weren't elite; they were still good. They just couldn't build the offense around it to the extent they had the previous year.

2015-16: Bad Wheels 2

Team Stats: 30.5% pick-and-rolls + passes (#22 in country), 0.923 points per play (#80)

The Ballhandlers:

  P&R Plays (Own Offense) PPP on Own Offense (%ile) P&R Plays (Passes) PPP on Passes (%ile) Total P&R Plays Overall P&R PPP. (%ile) Keep %
Derrick Walton 128 0.711 (44%) 120 1.000 (59%) 248 0.851 (51%) 51.6%
Zak Irvin 149 0.826 (68%) 98 1.306 (93%) 247 1.016 (86%) 60.3%
Caris LeVert 57 0.877 (77%) 62 0.855 (32%) 119 0.866 (54%) 47.9%
MAAR 67 0.910 (82%) 41 0.805 (24%) 108 0.870 (55%) 62.0%
Duncan Robinson 19 0.632 (29%) 17 0.647 (9%) 36 0.639 (14%) 52.8%

The Screeners:

  Pop Plays (%) Pop PPP (%ile) Roll Plays Roll PPP (%ile) Slip Plays (%) Slip PPP (%ile) Overall Plays Overall PPP (%ile)
Mark Donnal 12 (21.8%) 0.500 (12%) 40 (72.7%) 1.250 (60%) 3 (5.5%) 0.667 (—) 55 1.055 (60%)
Ricky Doyle 1 (2.9%) 2.000 (—) 30 (88.2%) 1.200 (54%) 3 (8.8%) 0.333 (—) 34 1.147 (73%)
Moe Wagner 3 (15.8%) 1.667 (—) 16 (84.2%) 1.375 (77%) 19 1.421 (95%)
DJ Wilson 9 (64.3%) 0.556 (—) 4 (28.6%) 1.500 (—) 1 (7.1%) 0.000 (—) 14 0.786 (24%)
Zak Irvin 9 (81.8%) 1.000 (—) 2 (18.2%) 0.000 (—) 11 0.818 (27%)

An unfortunate repeat, as Walton's previous foot injury sapped his ability to finish at the rim and LeVert—who'd improved considerably as a scorer off the high screen—again lost most of the season to a bad wheel.

Beilein increased the volume past where it had been in 2013-14 and the team's PPP slightly increased, though they came out worse compared to the rest of the country. Irvin was easily the team's best P&R ballhandler, continuing to pass at a high level while making enough pull-up jumpers to be relatively effective as a scorer.

some of those jumpers were rather important

MAAR pulled off a tough feat, averaging more PPP using his own offense than when he passed; that's very much a good news/bad news situation.

The roll men remained limited. This was the year Ricky Doyle seemingly lost the ability to catch and finish, so Mark Donnal ended up as the primary screener. Neither graded out particularly well. The center who did: enigmatic freshman Moe Wagner, who scored well as a roll man and flashed the ability to pop out and hit jumpers.

[Hit THE JUMP for Michigan exploring that a bit more.]

we've come a long way from manny harris leading the team in pick-and-roll plays with 45.

no, not in a game. in a season.

x in effect

stake time 

surprise! juwan howard knows how to utilize skilled big men.

a balanced performance holds off Rutgers, which is Legitimately Feisty