2015-16 Season In Review: The Good
Previously: MGoPodcast 7.22, Postmortem Feelingsball
While it's easy to chalk 2015-16 up as another lost season for Michigan basketball, the program made real progress despite again dealing with injuries that would cripple a lesser squad. The Wolverines improved their win total by seven, made their way back to the NCAA Tournament after a one-year absence, avoiding anything resembling the NJIT-EMU experience of the previous season, and saw promising development from some of their younger players.
Yes, there was plenty of bad, but we'll get to that later. Today's focus is on what went right for Michigan in 2015-16 and the implications for next season and beyond.
More MAAR, More Efficiency. Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman flashed potential as a freshman, but a wonky jumper, too many turnovers, a low free-throw rate, and early-season struggles finishing at the rim knocked his ORating down to an ugly 92.5.
This season, MAAR was thrust into a far bigger role after Caris LeVert's injury, and he responded by improving every facet of his game. His turnover rate dropped by more than half, he made 57% of his two-pointers in Big Ten play, he reliably knocked down corner threes, he got to the line more often, and while he won't be confused for a point guard any time soon he showed an increased willingness and ability to dish off the drive.
Most importantly, MAAR emerged as the team's most (read: only) reliable shot-creator in LeVert's absence. 33.2% of MAAR's shots came at the rim, the highest rate for a non-center on the team, per hoop-math. After LeVert (32.7%), the next-closest Wolverine in the rotation was Aubrey Dawkins at 22.4%, and MAAR worked a whole lot harder for his attempts at the basket—Dawkins was assisted on 75.0% of such shots, while MAAR was on just 16.4%. Even though MAAR had to go solo the vast majority of the time, he made an impressive 72.6% of his shots at the rim.
In an offense spearheaded by Zak Irvin and Derrick Walton, two players who have struggled to create and finish shots at the basket, that ability takes on paramount importance for next season. If MAAR can increase his usage—still at a relatively low 16.3% this season—while maintaining the efficiency he had this season, he could easily become the team's top option, especially if he improves as a passer out of the pick-and-roll. That would allow Walton to play off the ball more often, the role he's been best at in his Michigan career, and take pressure off Irvin to be an off-the-dribble creator, something he's improved at but still doesn't look totally comfortable doing.
Weezy, Freed. Save a few anomalous performances by Mark Donnal, the center position was a major sore spot this season, but there's renewed hope for next year after the late-season breakout of Moe Wagner.
Over the last four games of the season, Wagner went 9/9 from the field—including a three-pointer—with six offensive rebounds and four blocks in only 55 minutes. He was far and away Michigan's best pick-and-roll big, catching opponents square with his screens—he freed up Derrick Walton on the last play of the Indiana BTT game, forcing the help that opened up Kam Chatman in the corner—and showing great instincts for when to slip to the basket; it helped that he was a more reliable catcher and finisher than Donnal or Ricky Doyle, too. Despite being a skinny freshman, he showed he can hold up in the post on defense and potentially be a sorely needed rim protector.
Wagner's potential is tantalizing. At 6'10", he's got the frame to easily add 15-25 pounds and return next season in the 240-250 range. He dunks when Michigan's other big men go for layups. He has the athleticism and length to alter shots, run the floor, and even beat big men off the dribble. He made 71%(!) of his two-pointers as a freshman. If he can stay on the floor—a big question given his 7.3 fouls/40 minutes mark—he could turn the center spot from a negative into a positive in just one season.
Duncan Robinson. Even after an extended late-season slump—which, given Robinson's lofty standard, meant he made a mere 35% of his three-pointers in conference play—the D-III transfer proved he could more than hold his own at the highest level of college basketball. His shot chart remains a thing of beauty:
Robinson's dropoff can be attributed to issues that should be mitigated next season. He played more games than he ever had before while simultaneously facing a much higher level of competition. Opponents increasingly game-planned to eliminate Robinson as Michigan's other offensive weapons went down to injury or proved ineffective. With a year of D-I experience under his belt and what should be an improved group of players around him next season, Robinson should better be able to maintain his torrid early-season shooting pace. He showed signs of perking up at the end of this season, too, making 5/10 threes in the NCAA Tournament.
While Robinson would be a valuable starter based on his outside shooting alone, he rounded out his game as the season progressed. He drove to the basket more often late in the season, and while he wasn't great at finishing through contact, he shot a solid percentage near the hoop by using the basket to help shield him from defenders—the reverse layup off a baseline cut is becoming something of a signature for him. He went from being a terrible defender to merely a below-average one, separating himself from Aubrey Dawkins in that regard.
Robinson isn't quite Nik Stauskas 2.0—Stauskas created far more offense off the dribble—but Michigan ideally only needs him to be a second or third option in the offense instead of being the go-to guy. With more strength to finish drives after another summer of Camp Sanderson, Robinson should be a closer facsimile to Stauskas next season.
Derrick Walton's rebounding. At 6'1", Walton finished 14th in the Big Ten in defensive rebounding rate. Yes, some of that is due to the rebounding strategy put in place by the coaches—the big men seal off while the guards crash—but it's still ridiculous. While the rest of Walton's season was a disappointment, his remarkable ability to grab contested rebounds over bigger players shouldn't be overlooked.
Rahk was my favorite player this year, really hoping he takes his game up another level over the summer.
Also hoping Simpson is the pure point that can get everyone else the ball where they like it, that takes a ton of pressure off of Irvin/Walton/Robinson.
Over the last four games of the season, Wagner went 9/9 from the field
You do realize that averages out to 2.25 makes per game. I get the irrational exuberance over Wagner's potential, but you may be short-changing Donnal's development just a tad. Donnal more than doubled his PPG and blocks averages from his RS Frosh season and nearly doubled his rebounding average. Forgodsakes, he quadrupled his assist and steals averages (going from 0.1 to 0.4. Yes, I'm being a little facetious here.) Maybe just as importantly, he cut his fouls/40min from 5.8 to 5.1. If he can get that down another FPG, maybe he can stay on the court and contribute more consistently.
Donnal was at 0.635 on his 2 pt FG%, and that's over the course of a whole season.
...in another post, but here's the short version: while he improved, his defense is still quite bad, he continues to have trouble finishing contested shots, and as Wagner bulks up and cuts down on fouls there will be less and less reason to play Donnal over him. I'd love to be more bullish on him but sometimes you have to look past the numbers; it was very apparent who Michigan's best big man was at the end of the season and it wasn't Donnal.
...it was very apparent who Michigan's best big man was at the end of the season and it wasn't Donnal.
Watching the bigs in the non-conference portion of the season it also looked like Wagner was the best, and then Beilein disappeared him for conference play. It sure would have been nice to have a guy with heart on the floor rather than a tomato with greasy hands.
fouls and being out of position. Off court Beilein said he went through a funk (for lack of a better word) being 18, not having been home for months and having trouble finding playing time. He turned that around, according to Beilein in the last few weeks of the season which translated to better practices and playing time.
That all makes sense, but he was still better than Doyle and (but for a couple games) better than Donnel, who was also frequently out of position.
What I find weird is that Beilein has really been masterful is adjusting his scheme to fit his talent but, despite that, he's still often very rigid with certain aspects of his coaching. Auto-bench being one such point, and it seems Wagner earned an auto-bench throughout the entire B1G season just because he might foul if he ever saw the court. I'd take the "might foul" guy with heart over the can't-defend-and-will-miss-layup-guys any day.
March 25th, 2016 at 11:32 AM ^
I love when fans (who only see games) know Beilein's team better than Beilein does.
You don't teach guys during games. You teach them in practice and when they get it in practice, they've earned the playing time. Wagner didn't get it this year. He has heart and talent and length so he's an intriguing player, but he was not more helpful to the team than Donnal for much of the year.
The charge call was arguably a good one. It was 60/40 the correct call. The other foul on the fade-away was a bad one, yes but it's still 3 fouls in 8 minutes including a really stupid moving screen. That's a turnover AND a foul. He needs to cut down on the dumb mistakes to really help the team. It's encouraging that he'll be there next year, but he has to get there IN PRACTICE before you throw him out in games only to hurt the team.
the team until possible the very end of the season. Yes, he is the most athletic, best leaper, best shooter, best finisher, but he was every where on the floor except where he was supposed to be.
I am hoping Mo continues to improve his game and earns the starter minutes next year, because he has the most up side. If Donnal continues to improve as well, we could have a pretty decent 5 position next year.
With all due respect, I wasn't at any practice this year and I suspect you weren't at all of them. I'm more inclined to trust the judgment of Beilein, who gave Donnal 659 minutes this season to Wagner's 258. That's 401 more minutes to expose his poor defense and whatever else, so it's understandable that we're not as excited about Donnal, but to not even include him in the good column while praising Mo is suspect.
Or more succintly, as Apuleius put it so well, "Familiarity breeds contempt, while rarity wins admiration."
Robinson is not even close to Stauskas as an overall offensive player. Stauskas was a point guard who grew 4 more inches and kept his ball handling skills. Robinson is awkward doing anything but shooting from the arc. Would much rather see him off the bench as a role player. So many games down the stretch he was just taken out of the game and we basically played wtih 4 on offense. Dawkins hit a higher percentage in that time as well but clearly was not on Beilein's mind. Next year I think Beilein will bring out the 2 point guard look for 10-15 minutes a game with Walton and Simpson. He did that a lot with Spike to free up Burke and Walton. Also one thing we didnt see this year was Wagner's ability to be a true stretch 4/5. One day we will have a Pittsnogle, one day.
Sent from MGoBlog HD for iPhone & iPad
Many people keep trying to compare Duncan to Nik, I guess because they are both great three point shooters, but they are really different types of players.
I think Robinson can become a very good player before he leaves here. I think he learned this year that he can play at this level. I think he also learned that he needs to up his game in other areas if he wants to continue to have success. He impresses me as the kind of kid who will do the work and take the coaching and continue to improve. I am really looking forward to seeing him next year.
a really painful montage of Robinson getting absolutely torched as opponent after opponent drove right past him on the way to the basket. His feet are made of cement on defense. And I don't think any amount of work will change that. It's a lack of athleticism. His best bet at becoming better than terrible at defense (despite Ace's generosity, he didn't get to below average) is to gain 20 lbs and and hopefully be able to guard traditional 4s. He wasn't able to do that because he is so skinny so the shorter Irvin had to play against 4s which left Robinson getting burned by wing guys and Irvin struggling against taller 4s.
Stauskas was an 18 year old freshman playing his first year in college when he was Just A Shooter (which was really all the team needed anyway). Robinson was a 21 (!!!) year old this season, turning 22 next month. In fact, Robinson is only 6 months younger than Stauskas. Now. Robinson is likely much closer to his ceiling than Stauskas was as a freshman.
Do most shooters hit corner threes at a higher clip than elsewhere? If so, why? I'm hardly a baller but I have always thought the lack of a backboard made shooting from the corner harder.
It's a closer shot than other 3 pointers. It's been called the most efficient shot in basketball because it's the distance of a long 2 and it's worth 3 points.
...when a defender is beat off the dribble at the top of the key, especially on a high screen, the help defense usually comes from the corner. Those shots aren't only shorter; attempts from the corner tend to be more open because of the way they're created.
the 3 pt line is the same distance everywhere in the ncaa; 20'9".
Isn't the college 3-point arc a uniform 20'9" from all distances? I thought it was only the NBA's three that had the varying distances.
I don't think so. Even just looking at the arc you can tell it straightens out in the corner so I think it might be shorter than the wing or point shots. But I could be wrong.
from the basket. The line runs a little more than 20'9" anywhere behind the basket.
that's the nba
is of equal distance, 20'9", from the basket at all points along its arc.
My mistake then
March 29th, 2016 at 11:42 PM ^
I personally always found the long corner shots to be more difficult because of the lack of a backboard creating a near distance reference point. For me, the shot at about a 45 degree from the hoop always felt the most reliable. As well as a few of the smaller gyms I played ball in had mis-sized, mis-shapen courts where the corner three could be less than 2' from the sideline and the bleachers. I also took solace in the fact that I grew up shooting hoops against a dark backlit northern Michigan sky in my parent's country driveway. I read somewhere once that Larry Bird said this helped his shooting growing up in Indiana as well (along with a lack of a net on the rim).
Well, when you're shooting a three, you don't normally want to use the backboard. For whatever reason, it seems like it's easier to line up your shot from that angle. I liked shooting from the corner.
In the NBA, there's a more specific reason why people like the corner three: it's the shortest distance on the three-point arc (22 feet, compared to 23'9" at the top of the key).
i liked the 3 up top. for some reason i liked having the backboard in the background. i think it helped my depth perception. the corners were my worst.
March 24th, 2016 at 10:04 PM ^
like shooting the three from the wings for the same reason; I like the backboard in the background.
edited.
has been overblown. I thought your comments on Robinson were particularly on the nose. If anything, Dawkins has gone backwards as a defender as Robinson has improved.
Wagner gets to tote around that fifth foul from the Notre Dame game all summer long
I hope they don't put too much weight on this guy. First, he could get hurt given his build and background of not lifting weights, and second, it might take away some of what makes him dynamic. I think he could be an anthony-davis type player, but I'm afraid they will make him plodding and one-dimensional.
Could result in injuries caused from workout plan (McGary) or simply putting too much weight on his feet/ankles (LeVert).
As far as his game, some guys play better lighter. Davis was never a bruiser with his lean build, but found other ways to be effective. Wagner is obviously not as talented but has a similar skillset in many ways. Hope they don't turn him into Mark Donnal.
most improvement from the start of the season to the end were (in order), Donnal, Abdur-Rahkman, Wagner and Robinson. I don't think any of those guys are any where near their ceiling yet and, hopefully, will continue to improve. I think a healthy Irvin and Doyle can also get better and next year could be Chatman's break out season.
March 24th, 2016 at 10:08 PM ^
I am looking forward to next season after this write up.
I just hope that I don't feel like crashing my vehicle into a bridge abutment after the write up for the "The Bad", which will be primarly about how bad the defense was and how bad the production from the bigs was.
March 24th, 2016 at 10:40 PM ^
Thanks for this post. This team perservered through a season (for the 2nd year in a row) that would cripple many others.
Take the best player and most poised player off any team, and how would they have finished? I'm definitely bummed for Caris and Spike for what could have been for them - forget about us - but I'm happy for the younger players for the growth opportunity.
While the 'bad' post will point out plenty, I think Coach has made good progress with this group and the incoming class is full of good pieces to add.
March 25th, 2016 at 12:13 AM ^
Wagner can surpass Ricky Dolye in minutes. Everytime Doyle came in, it felt like he was a liability, especially in conference play. He couldn't defend and couldn't catch the ball on the rare occasion he was open on a slip to the basket.
5/10 in the tournament, other than the small sample size, is the horrific defensive competition against which he did it, and the short scouting/prep time Tulsa and ND had. Unless the other players on the team garner a lot more attention next year, I fear it'll still be too easy for B1G teams which are mostly well-coached and traditionally good at defense, to take him out of the game.
Comments