Paging Bball Research Gurus - How do Beilein teams do on the 3rd game in 3 days?
Absolutely fantastic theater these 2 days.
My worry pre tournament is my memories of some of the NBA player full UM games tiring later in BTT. Maybe my memory is foggy but we seem to lose our sea legs - understandably - as a jump shooting team playing that 3rd game in a row. I know the sample size is small but I'm curious how many times we've advanced to the 3rd game in a row and how our outside shooting looked those games.
Exaggerating that, we seem to be down to a 7 person rotation at this point and hitting a wall about 5 minutes into the 2nd half tommorow is a big worry. Talk me out of it.
#HoldMeBrownBear
"Win the game"
Only if MSU wins.
Yes but few teams rely on outside J like we do. The one I am remembering most is when they gave JMorg 2 fouls in like the first 2 minutes vs MSU in the final, and we went stone cold outside. Other teams generally have more of an inside threat and turn to that later in the tournament when all the guards and SFs get tired. Or those misses require offensive rebounding - which our system is built around not doing (getting back on defense is our system)
Even our "bigs" are generally outside shooters (see DJ). Mo can do some work inside but he is really the only guy and any foul trouble like today and I have nightmares of relying solely on outside Js again.
We've never won 3 games in 3 days under Beilein.
Here are all the opportunities we've had so far. We've never even played 4 games in 4 days under Beilein. I'm not sure we ever have.
- 2007-08: 1-2 at Great Alaska Shootout
- 2011-12: 2-1 at Maui Invitational
- 2013-14: 2-1 at Puerto Rico Tip-Off
- 2013-14: 2-1 at B1G Tournament
- 2015-16: 2-1 at Battle 4 Atlantis
- 2015-16: 2-1 at B1G Tournament
Record in those 3rd games-
- 11/24/2007: L 69-73 vs. Western Kentucky
- 11/23/2011: W 79-63 vs. UCLA
- 11/24/2013: L 61-63 vs UNC-Charlotte
- 3/16/2014: L 55-69 in B1G Tournament final
- 11/27/2015: W 78-72 vs. Texas
- 3/12/2016: L 59-76 vs. Purdue
All trend are trends until they are not.
Time to end that streak.
One trend that can keep going: our perfect record in neutral-site games.
At Michigan he's 0-2 (2014 and '16). Very small sample size, of course - and the second time was against a PU team playing only its 2nd game.
We got mollywopped in both too...
The Purdue game was simply a mismatch. The fact that it was our 3rd game in three days didn't help matters but I don't think that caused it.
The MSU game was bad. But it's a sample of one.
He's talking about the B1G championship game a couple of years ago, when we swept them in the regular season (in part spurred by a great game by freshman PG Derrick Walton Jr in East Lansing) and lost in the title game.
Yes they did. Derrick Walton and Stauskas had back to back three point plays/makes and they ended up winning. Stauskas blew kisses.
We are with house money now. I don't see much benefit in winning the whole tourney.
The benefit is not having to face UNC in the 2nd round if we win the first game in the NCAAs.
Granted... if we do win out, we can get up to a 6 and end up facing UCLA, which is probably not any better.
7 is probably the best seed.
3 could get us Zona, who is only two spots above us in KenPom.
Nobody knows where we are currently at. If anything minus the #1 seeds Lunardi is generally tossing darts at a board for the seeds and lines
2 seed probably. I don't think there is a huge difference between the 2s and 3s this year though. Depends more on specific matchups.
playing with house money allows for a letdown. Every time I heard a fan say that, no matter the team or sport, their team lost.
My point is I would rather them get home relax. These kids went through a major event and my guyess is that won't sink in until they are back on campus.
Are you seriously saying you'd rather Michigan lose and not win a conference tournament championship so they can rest and have a slightly better chance at going to the Sweet 16? Wtf?
10-0 on day one, 3-7 on day 2 (at the BTT, better if you add in some of the pre-season tournaments), 0-2 on day 3
The 10-0 should definitely be recognized more often than it is. That is remarkable and shows that if you give a good coach like Beilein time, good things tend to happen. Also shows up in the NCAA Tournament where his teams at U of M are 5-1 in openers.
In contrast, the Big Ten champion the past two years has lost its BTT opener (to us!).
That 10-0 record is a significant reason why Beilein's Michigan teams have never ended up in the NIT. When we've been on the bubble, we've gotten that win we needed.
Do early season invitationals count? I think there have been a few of those where they've won three in three days?
The fact that we'll be playing for the third day in a row has me considering something that's an anathema to me: rooting for Sparty. At least they'll be in the same boat as Michigan.
I would never do that no matter what but even with your theory they have Ward inside whose range is about 6 feet and built for this 3rd game in 3 days scenario, and Bridges is an absolute fantastic slasher. I see what you are saying about Minn too as they have the big burly guys inside but if we must get tired and miss, I'd rather do it vs Minn!
At Michigan 0-2:
Last year lost to Purdue in a game in which we were big underdogs.
2014 lost to MSU in the title game in essentially a pick 'em.
At WVU 1-0:
Beat a good Nova team in 2005 in the year they went to the elite 8 (Pittnogle breakout).
At Richmond, only one year of data in kenpom but went 0-1.
Lost as big underdogs to Xavier.
No real trend. Lost to the much better teams, went 1-1 in relative pick ems. We have to be exhausted but will be the better team whomever it is tomorrow.
that DJ can step up should scare a lot of teams and hopefully make our guys even more confident
Not to mention after playing an OT session and dealing with physical injuries from a fucking plane crash. ;) Anything from here on out is gravy.
snipers on 3rd day tired legs than proven bricklayers on 2 day legs. Yeah, I am looking at your MINN & MSU ... and SYRACUSE.
3-0: once
2-1: twice
1-1: 11 times, including seven straight from 2007-2013
0-1: 5 times
vs Illinois: 4-2
vs Indiana: 1-1
vs Iowa: 5-0 (they say argh mizzen wizzen fizzen, we say why we no get chance vs u since 2010?)
vs MSU: 0-1
vs Minnesota: 3-1
vs Northwestern: 1-1
vs Ohio State: 1-6
vs Penn State: 2-2
vs Purdue: 3-1
vs Wisconsin: 0-1
We have not played the newcomers: Nebraska, Maryland, or Rutgers
Honestly I think the team is already tired and I think the poor shooting and turnovers today showed it. I have no idea how they'll respond tomorrow, but if Purdue had won the game we'd be talking about how tired the team was and excusing the loss, and that would not be inaccurate.
I will point out that if Wagner is hurt (just the wrapped back rumors, but he wasn't playing in OT and that seems odd) we have trouble. And if he's not hurt, he didn't play much at all, and he might be ready to have a good game.
I don't think there's much way Michigan can sustain this for another two games without falling apart. They played the last B1G game of the regular season Sunday night, crashed Wednesday, got up at 4am Thursday, have played two games... and two more to go?
I'm actually a bit worried about how tired they'll be for the first round of the NCAA tournament. Teams do wear down after a while, and this is a long slog.
are young guys. As long as they don't actually get injured, their fitness will be perfectly fine for next week even if they play Sunday.
They must be exhausted right now though. Would be understandable if they're lacking energy/are sloppy tomorrow.
They are probably exhausted but the adrenaline from the near-disaster must be sky high....no pun intended by the last comment, but they are obviously really fired up.
Just how long can it keep them up?
Your understandable comment is right on.
Then might as well win the BTT. It's a lot easier to keep playing when you keep winning. Going to the BTT finals and losing would really suck since then we can't ride that high, but hopefully it would push us to a 6 seed.