Looking ahead to 2017
Yeah we can still play in the Rose bowl and hopefully we somehow get into the playoff but with the season moslty over, it's interesting to look at what type of team we'll have next year.
I think we'll have one of the best RB combination in the country with Chris Evans and Karan Higdon with the possibility of Najee Harris if we can pull that recruitment off.
QB will be a strength also with Wilton Speight coming back and Brandon Peters coming on to battle Speight for the spot.
At tight end, we lose Jake Butt which will be a big loss but bring back Asiasi who looks like a star in the making and also bring back Wheatley and Bunting.
Wide receiver loses Chesson and Darboh but return Grant Perry and Drake Harris and return guys like Crawford and Mcdoom get some reps there with the possibilty of adding difference maker DPJ who will probably get some snaps. Also, Nate Johnson has been talked about as a difference maker.
The offensive line will probably be very thin but we return Bredeson and Cole and hopefully Newsome. Onwenu and one of the potential 4/5 star OL recruits Wilson, Leatherwood, Ruiz etc. look to start.
The defensive line will still be very good with guys like Hurst, Gary, Mone, Winovich coming back. We will be thiner but that line will be very good.
The linebackers should hopefully take a jump forward with McCray coming back and Bush getting some minutes already this year. Mbem-Bosse and Josh Ross could also contribute.
The secondary is another position with a lot of turnover. I feel pretty confident in Tyree Kinnel but hopefully we get some good play from Watson, Hudson, Long, Lavert Hill etc. and we're due a 6th year from Jeremy Clark after Ed Davis got one.
Overall, I think this is a lot of turnover to still be in the national championship picture. I think we probably go anywhere from 9-3 to 11-1 although we have a tough schedule. I think there's numerous positions that people will worry about like TE and WR just because you're losing players but Harbaugh has good talented players that are playing right now. The more worrisome positions are the secondary and OL where we will be thin. Hopefully guys like Hudson and Lavert Hill are the real deal and Newsome is able to play again.
November 26th, 2016 at 9:34 PM ^
I don't think they were that explosive as a trio. Comparitively, they feel just kinda normal. Not going to waste the time doing it, but if you went through a lot of teams across the country, a 750-550-400, 12 TD breakdown for your top 3 WRs is probably pretty normal. Maybe a little below normal for top offenses. For shits and giggles I looked up MSU's top 3: 715-420-324, 13 TDs. And for more shits and giggle's here's Wisconsin's: 535-421-417, 7 TDs....so yeah. Michigan's is pretty normal, unless you think super highly of MSU or Wisconsin's offense.
Also, Darboh was pretty far and away the most dominant of the three. He has almost half (45%) of the trio's yards and exactly half of the TDs.
Where I do agree through is that since there's no Dede Westbrook level top WR to replace, plugging in some new WRs and TEs should be pretty doable, won't be much of a step back, and won't make the offense any less explosive.
Also agree that OL is the top issue. Especially with the way Michigan wants to run the ball.
November 26th, 2016 at 10:07 PM ^
and mostly agree. Darboh, Chesson, Butt will be missed but their production can be replaced.
DPJ will be important to get.
If M ends up having better 0-line, then the offense should be better in 2017.
November 26th, 2016 at 6:37 PM ^
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November 26th, 2016 at 6:46 PM ^
It happens everytime you lose a player, people say that you'll have a drop off which is probable but it doesn't account for another position like RB or QB stepping up or the people behind a guy like Butt or Chesson as being good but not as good.
November 26th, 2016 at 7:02 PM ^
That's what I'm saying. The players behind Butt, Chesson, and Darboh will be just fine. For a good example of "HOW WILL WE EVER REPLACE PLAYER X" look at Alabama, Ohio State, or Clemson. Last few year people have said that about the players they have lost, and they've all been just fine. If you can recruit and coach at the level they do (and Michigan does) then you'll be just fine.
Butt, Chesson, and Darboh have had nice careers here, but we're talking about two players in Butt and Chesson have have under 500 yds receiving each, and a total of 6 TDs between them. That's very replaceable. Darboh is the best of the three, but we'll have better or equal players in the next few seasons.
November 26th, 2016 at 7:09 PM ^
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November 26th, 2016 at 7:17 PM ^
Same for me. DPJ is kind of a must get, but WR is a position where guys step up all the time. Its not like we're replacing a 1200yd and 10 TD receiver.
OL kinda killed us in the 4th quarter the last three games when we just needed to grind out a solid 8min scoring drive to ice the game and they couldn't come close. Given how young some of the guys on the OL are, and the young depth behind them, I'm hoping they are at least equal to this season's team, if not better. Will likely be 2018 before they turn into a Stanford or Alabama level road grater crew.
November 26th, 2016 at 8:06 PM ^
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November 26th, 2016 at 10:17 PM ^
has two loses right now.
Officiating today was horrible today.
But the 0-line was merely good not great all year And today they could not get that one first down needed late in the 4th (never mind the 8 minute clock killing drive).
That was the problem with the offense all year. O-line fell short on run plays against good Ds.
But I have to think that Habraugh and Drevno should not have tried to run in the 4th and in OT at certain times. They know that this 0-line has not been great againt good defenses all year (or all day against OSU).
Offense worked best in the 1st half when they were passing a lot on 1st down.
November 26th, 2016 at 9:25 PM ^
We've had one.
We're losing a ton of talent across the board, and we don't have the same stable of up-and-coming players that have been in practices and conditioning for a year or two ready to step on the field (in addition to the few freshmen that are immediate impact players).
We'll get there, and the receiving corps isn't the greatest concern, but any dropoff hurts when it's part of a potential across-the-board dropoff.
November 26th, 2016 at 6:53 PM ^
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November 26th, 2016 at 7:12 PM ^
three catchable balls that cost us the Iowa game.
November 26th, 2016 at 7:21 PM ^
Butt had a bad dropped pass this game too. He's had a few bad ones this season. And while he's had a fantastic career at Michigan, with the way he performed this season and with the way they used him, I'm not sure how big of a loss that actually is. Again, its 460 yards and 4 TDs, half of which he picked up in three games against Maryland, UCF, and Colorado. Michigan has a lot of guys that can do 4 catches for 40 yards a game.
November 27th, 2016 at 4:02 AM ^
November 26th, 2016 at 6:24 PM ^
I think that's what hurts so much right now. Next year doesn't look nearly as good as this year does. OSU reloads every single year, and even after huge turnover, they're still probably going to be a playoff team. We're not there yet. By not making it this year, we're still a minimum of 2 years away from bring in this position again.
I want to puke as I type this, but we're just not at Ohio's level right now. We were the better team this year, but that wasn't enough. Next year, their inexperienced team loaded with 4 and 5 stars will have a lot more experience, and they'll have a clear talent edge.
With so many seniors this year, it was clearly a "playoffs or bust" year, and we had a bust. I want to be positive, and I want to be looking forward to next year, but I just don't how we don't take a major step backwards next year. I hope I'm wrong.
November 26th, 2016 at 9:16 PM ^
OSU 2016 team is not nearly as good as the OSU 2015 team. But it looks like the 2016 team will make the playoff while the 2015 team did not.
OSU was really lucky to win today in OT and also lucky to win in OT at Wisconsin. They really should be a three loss team.
Frustrating that M did not win today. M really is the better team this year, but just made too many mistakes and got screwed on PI non-calls in OT and late in the 4th.
Weird year in college football. No single dominante team. All of the top 6 or 7 teams are less than perfect. Even Alabama looks beatable. the gap from no 2. to no. 7 is compressed this year.
November 26th, 2016 at 6:30 PM ^
that could be interesting
November 26th, 2016 at 6:34 PM ^
Next year could be an 8-4 to 9-3 year with how much we have to replace. And until I actually see us beat an OSU team that isn't coached by Luke Fickell, I have doubts about us ever being able to beat Urban Meyer. His recruiting classes are somehow managing to get better and better. Depending on how long he stays, I'm worried it could be years before we beat them.
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November 26th, 2016 at 6:43 PM ^
Ditto.
The moral victories are getting absurd at this point.
That's all Michigan has left in this rivalry honestly.
November 26th, 2016 at 9:32 PM ^
you are thinking abut it the wrong way.
I could see the pessimism about ever beating Urban Meyer if we still had Hoke or whatever.
But Harbaugh has closed the gap to nil in just 24 months.
Dissapointing to lose today, but OSU needed terrible officiating, three M turnovers, some dumb M penalties, some dropped balls from M receivers, plus some luck to escape the win.
If they played 10 times, M would win 7 or 8. Just did not work out today.
Everyone says this was the year becasue we were loaded with talent. But that was true on D only. The offense still has a talent gap. O-line was good not great. Just could not run the ball late in games against good defenses.
Despite these deficiencies on offense we were still hair's breath from the playoff (and will still probably be top 5 after the conference CC games are played).
I mean do you remember losing to Rutgers 25 months ago? Do you realize how far we have come? Ridiculous that M lost today. But this game is just a speed bump.
November 26th, 2016 at 10:13 PM ^
November 26th, 2016 at 10:49 PM ^
Losing the way we lost is terrible. It was there for the taking and we both let it slip away and it was taken away by poor officiating (the non-PI calls bother me more than the bad spot on 4th down).
But if you think about it M really is slightly better than OSU this year, and that is way better than the reality of 2015, which was that OSU was totally dominant. The gap is nil.
M might be 8-4 in 2017. Or they could get some breaks and have some young players work out really well and win the conference.
Will M have a d-line in 2017 as good as 2016? No. But the d-line and D overall can still be a top ten D, and they may end up with a better o-line, etc.
Way better to be angry about losing a close one to OSU that should have been ours than to lose to be angry and confused about losing to Rutgers, etc.
November 26th, 2016 at 10:51 PM ^
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November 26th, 2016 at 11:41 PM ^
November 27th, 2016 at 7:21 AM ^
November 26th, 2016 at 10:53 PM ^
This is far more than a speed bump, pal. We risk falling behind to OSU permanently while Meyer is in town. OSU may not have played well today, but they didn't make mistakes. We made a TON of them.
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November 26th, 2016 at 11:22 PM ^
If you think Harbaugh is no better than Les Miles you are wrong.
And if you think Michigan and Harbaugh will permanently be behind OSU and Meyer you are wrong.
I did not call anything a moral victory.
Instead, my point is that 25 months after M lost to Rutgers (!) M is actually better than OSU.
Too many turnovers today. Too much bad officiating. Somtimes the better team does not win the game.
But right now M is not at all behind OSU.
November 26th, 2016 at 6:34 PM ^
The core question is OL. This group was average and that means minimal talent on the roster - perhaps almost nothing to really deliver Harbaugh power football. It will depend on recruiting (Wilson and Ruiz might start day 1).
Speight and Peters battle for QB (Peters is a significantly better athlete). Evans becomes a nightmare with 10 more pounds of muscle. I think Kareem emerges with his one-cut ability and resculpted phasique. Crawford, Perry, Asiasi, Bunting, McDoo, TJW are a good receiving core. Add DPJ and Nico - this group is legit.
We have 81 scholarships (excluding walkons) and 19 seniors with no eligibility. 11 seniors with potential 5th years: Morris, Shallman, Isaac, O'Korn, Hill, Poggi, Dawson, Kugler, Hurst, McCray, Sypniewski. Assume Peppers to the NFL so 35 spots. I think 5 get invited back for 5th years: Isaac, Hill, Poggi, Hurst and McCray.
Defense will be good if Hurst and McCray return. Mone showed some burst today. Gary will be a terror, Bush is a warrior, and the secondary might be better with Long, Hill, Metellus and Kinnel.
November 26th, 2016 at 6:36 PM ^
Playoffs? We have no right to be in the playoffs. We didn't win our division.
November 26th, 2016 at 6:48 PM ^
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November 26th, 2016 at 8:44 PM ^
OSU shouldn't be in either.
November 27th, 2016 at 12:37 AM ^
NO ONE SHOULD BE IN THE PLAYOFFS!!! NO TEAM DESERVES IT!!! THEY SHOULD JUST CANCEL IT THIS YEAR!!!
November 26th, 2016 at 6:38 PM ^
It won't get better until there is an uptick of talent and playmaking ability at the QB and RB positions. If Hurst goes the D line could take a couple steps back. Could be an 8 to 10 win season.
November 26th, 2016 at 6:58 PM ^
UM has no Barrett, Samuel, or Weber. The difference in athleticism at these positions is obvious.
November 26th, 2016 at 7:04 PM ^
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November 26th, 2016 at 7:23 PM ^
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November 26th, 2016 at 10:53 PM ^
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November 27th, 2016 at 12:38 AM ^
We don't have guys named Barrett, Samuel, or Weber. This is correct.
November 26th, 2016 at 7:05 PM ^
Speight was really good this year. Way better than people imagined he would be last August.
The pick six today was terrible. No excuse.
On the other INT was only half his fault. If you look at the replay you will see that the OSU defender was hidden behind an official when Speight threw it.
There are plenty of reasons to be concerned about several very young positon groups in the 2017 two deep.
But Speight is not really something to worry about. He is usuallly accurate, has very good pocket presence, and can make all the throws. And he will only get better.
M had the talent at almost every position this year to win the national championship. I say almost becasue in the end the real flaw in the 2106 team was having a good but not superb o-line. Two more really good o-linemen and M would be undefeated right now.
Open qustions from 2017 include: o-line, corners, d-line depth, wide receivers.
QB, RB, slot and (probably) LB position groups will be very good.
November 26th, 2016 at 7:39 PM ^
To me, that pick six was way more on Smith than Speight. Smith totally blew the block that allowed whoever it was to plow into Speight as he was throwing. And the only reason that pass is off is because Speight's arm is hit as he is throwing. Don't remember which receiver it was, but I think he had someone open on the sideline for a big play there if his arm doesn't get hit. Tough to fault a guy for getting blindsided as he's throwing.
Now the fumble and the other pick? Yeah, those were totally on Speight. But he's a redshirt sophomore with plently of upside. It'll either be a more experienced Speight or Peters ready to go. I like our QB chances for next season.
November 26th, 2016 at 7:42 PM ^
I do think it will be hard for the others to overtake Speight next year. I'm not too down on him, I think he also kept us in the game today. But, I just feel like there is something missing from his game. I love his demeanor and pocket presence.
Regarding the O-line, I feel like the veteran's Kalis, Magnussen, Braden and I'll even include Cole, just never really turned into the mauling road graders we'd hoped for. I give Bredeson a pass this season because he is a freshman.
November 26th, 2016 at 9:33 PM ^
we'll be fine?
November 26th, 2016 at 6:38 PM ^
November 26th, 2016 at 6:47 PM ^
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November 27th, 2016 at 4:43 AM ^
is not coming to UM
he is Ohio St all the way
Sad to say, but don't get your hopes up
We haver been 2nd fiddle to OSU all along
The loss against OSU just killed any chance we had
November 26th, 2016 at 6:44 PM ^
team will be one that is rough at the start of the year but improves hugely over the course of the season.
You don't just replace the number of guys we will lose and/or experienced guys like Peppers, Womley, Jourdan Lewis, etc. with unproven RS freshman and sophomores and expect no drop off.
Hoke's last two classses 2014 and 2015 (one month after Harbaugh hire) will be a problem next year. Neither class was very big or highly ranked. There are some good players in there, but not enough.
So lots of guys from the superb 2016 class, and even some true freshman from the 2017 class, will be playing central roles.
November 26th, 2016 at 6:45 PM ^
November 26th, 2016 at 7:11 PM ^
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November 26th, 2016 at 10:01 PM ^
Just like they always do.
November 26th, 2016 at 6:48 PM ^
Sigh next year will be a down year, but maybe we can weasel our way in like Penn State. This was the year, we're losing too much for next year to matter, so maybe in 2018 we'll be sitting pretty again.