Over/Under on Harbaugh's first season? Be Honest

Submitted by Wolfman on

Whether you stated it publicly or merely kept it to yourself, everyone on this site had an opinion of how many games we would win in Jim's first year. I was one under but was still met with more than a little skepticism when, after the announcement of his hiring, I predicted 9 wins. I can understand this because I did this fully expecting that Shane or Wilton would be our qb. I correctly picked the three losses during the regular season, but I thought, with luck, we could beat UT and one of either MSU or OSU seeing we had them both at home. I didn't think we would be pushed to our limit by IU or MN but, in retrospect, I'm glad we were for no other reason because these are the type of games that define the character of the team. Further, I think beating the teams you are supposed to beat, no matter how close, makes the statement we won't lose to inferior teams. I was also wrong about the way we would win these games. I thought, finally, given how highly rated our OL was coming in from high school, that our ground game would resemble what we saw in the bowl game against a damn fine FL front seven. I also thought it would by Derrick and Ty putting up big numbers during the season and whoever our qb was would basically be asked to complete safe, timely passes just to keep the D honest. What I saw that line do in the Citrus Bowl gives me great hope for next year though. Given the above, I was even more impressed with Jim's abilities to manufacture points with modest tweaks and understanding each week what he could expect from Jake. By season's end it looked like, in addition to an AA TE, we had an All Big QB and a more-than-impressive receiving corp. I am not going out on a limb by saying 98% of us are extremely happy with his first full campaign. There are always a few that hold ridiculous standards. There have been a number of threads related to the steps he took to ensure future success, and obviously he did well in this regard. I am just curious, and I am sure you all remember the "realistic" number of Ws you thought we would accomplish this season.

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DealerCamel

January 2nd, 2016 at 5:59 PM ^

Over the summer in a prediction thread a bunch of people were predicting 7 or 8 wins, and I said something like, "You all are crazy.  There's way too much talent on this team.  Harbaugh will probably surprise everyone.  I'd be stunned if we wound up with less than 10 wins."

I also thought there was no way we'd lose to both MSU and OSU, so I wasn't completely right.

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BlueCube

January 2nd, 2016 at 6:03 PM ^

beat OSU or MSU and slip up one other game. I thought MSU was likely to be the tougher game because we would need time to learn the system.

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rob f

January 2nd, 2016 at 6:04 PM ^

MGoBlog, but told everyone I discussed it with (going all the way back to the Spring Game) that it would be a 10-win season or better. My thoughts were that we'd beat either sparty or OSU at home but lose to one of the Utah schools non-conference, then look for #11 in a New Years Day Bowl Game, probably in Pasadena. If not for one play...

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Nolongerusingaccount

January 2nd, 2016 at 6:04 PM ^

Thought 7-8 wins for a few reasons.

(1) No proven QB in Harbaugh's system.

(2) No gamebreakers. 

(3) The Harbaugh hype seemed a bit worrisome in the sense that I believed people were expecting too much out of one coach.

I'm glad I was wrong.  I didn't realize how inadequate player development was under Hoke (other than the DL) especially for players like Clark, Stribling, Thomas, Chesson, and others.  There were really no signs that Chesson would develop into one the best B10 receivers.  It's really amazing how much difference in so little time that one coach can make.

 

 

 

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Nolongerusingaccount

January 2nd, 2016 at 6:04 PM ^

Thought 7-8 wins for a few reasons.

(1) No proven QB in Harbaugh's system.

(2) No gamebreakers. 

(3) The Harbaugh hype seemed a bit worrisome in the sense that I believed people were expecting too much out of one coach.

I'm glad I was wrong.  I didn't realize how inadequate player development was under Hoke (other than the DL) especially for players like Clark, Stribling, Thomas, Chesson, and others.  There were really no signs that Chesson would develop into one the best B10 receivers.  It's really amazing how much difference in so little time that one coach can make.

 

 

 

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GoBlueNorth

January 2nd, 2016 at 6:04 PM ^

Losses to Utah, PSU, MSU and OSU. We call our bowl game after it's announced and I got that one right as well. I guessed 9-4,,,,,they went 10-3. I love being wrong.

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philgoblue

January 2nd, 2016 at 6:05 PM ^

I mean, y'all saw this team in 2014, right? Assumed losses to Ohio, state, Utah, and 2 or three more among penn state, Minnesota, byu, northwestern and Indiana.
So, yea, 10-3. Pretty amazing.

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YoOoBoMoLloRoHo

January 2nd, 2016 at 6:07 PM ^

Clearly add a couple more wins from coaching competence (Rutgers, Maryland) and then beat MSU or Minn and/or bowl win. So 9-4. D was better than expected, ST better, passing game better, and running game worse. Other than 2nd half vs OSU, team should total competence throughout the season. So beat my expectations in more ways than just record.

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Baugh so hard

January 2nd, 2016 at 6:08 PM ^

I thought we could beat everyone on the scedule other than OSU. Even so, this was a great season given the state of the program one year ago and the most important thing is that you can tell watching the team that they're playing in a system that makes sense and with fire to win. 

I'll probbaly have the same expectation next year, although I may flip my OSU pick to us.

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MileHighWolverine

January 2nd, 2016 at 6:09 PM ^

9-3 with a win over MSU or OSU and 10-2 being the high mark for regular season record. We are 10-3 ...... but I really look at us as 11-2 because, in my mind, we won the MSU game.

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Ray

January 2nd, 2016 at 6:17 PM ^

with an emotional, statement win over either Staee or Tattoo U. 

Love the trajectory of this team:  Win the games you're supposed to and keep the other ones close.  With the exception of tOSU and (almost) MN, these guys did that.  What a world of difference from where we were.

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Ty Butterfield

January 2nd, 2016 at 6:21 PM ^

I said 7. HOWEVA, I would be totally happy with 7 if one of the wins was against Staee. Really puts Michigan behind the 8 ball next season. Losing both rivalry games again is is not acceptable.

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MGoDillon

January 2nd, 2016 at 6:31 PM ^

Oh shut up, we barely lost to MSU who made the playoffs, and got smoked by a team that was a playoff caliber team with 1 loss all year and like 2 or 3 total losses in the last 3 years. After a 5 win season. Give the whole rivalry thing a break will ya.



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MGoDillon

January 2nd, 2016 at 6:27 PM ^

I said 9-10. However, I said 11-12 many times with Hoke when he got 5 or 6. So let's just say I'm an optimistic as it is.



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Cold War

January 2nd, 2016 at 6:33 PM ^

The expectations concerned me. I thought 8-4 was fine and would not have freaked at 7-5 at all. My O/U was 7.5 wins I guess.

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Muttley

January 2nd, 2016 at 6:41 PM ^

 
 
 
  • One OOC loss
  • A loss to MSU
  • Winning out including OSU upset
  • No '69 parallel for the CCG, so I went w/ a W
  • Loss in the top tier bowl game

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The Man Down T…

January 2nd, 2016 at 6:45 PM ^

Doing better in the latter half than the beginning.  After Utah and before the shutout streak and before Utah blew a hole in Oregon the size of the Big House, I was thinking we'd get 6. 

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RadioMuse

January 2nd, 2016 at 6:57 PM ^

I had us at 8-4 right from the hiring. During the spring I though that might be a bit optimistic given the QB situation and that we hadn't put together a proven tailback based running game in years, but I stuck by it.

After the Rudock transfer I started to have a bit more confidence that whoever started at QB had earned it rather than just being the best bad option available. By the beginning of the season I was starting to think that 8-4 was pestimistic and 9-3 was probably more in line with reality. But the way we got there was quite a ride.

Against Utah the team looked unfinished, but the composure in a night game, on the road, was refreshing after the last couple years.

The offense took a while to find itself but the defense looked completely overwhelming. As the defensive dominence lessened and special teams started returning to Earth the passing offense started to click. By the kickoff in Happy Valley this felt like a proper Michigan team - one that just finds ways to win no matter what strength or weakness was getting exposed. The regular season ended with a defensive breakdown I'd rather not remember or recount, but otherwise it was a damn fine 11 games.

Upon seeing the matchup with Florida I felt we had a pretty good chance to break out the champange a second time in one day; but that performance exceeded my wildest dreams. I figured it was going to be a defensive slugfest where a kick coverage issue (Florida has scored on returns this season) and a few Harris scrambles kept the Gators in it while our offense plugged away in a mildly more efficient fashion. Then our line started opening holes and tailbacks cut decisively into them and refused to go down on first contact. Our recievers shook open with help from Ruddock's eyes and pump-fakes leading defenders to the wrong routes; dissecting maybe the best secondary we've encounted all year. The defense held up their end of the bargin after gaining confidence on an INT in the enzone, keeping the Gators out of scoring range for most of the remaining minutes. It was confirmation that we're going to right direction and (unlike 2011) we didn't have to get lucky to do it.

My expectations for '16 are now much higher than they were six months ago. Find a few key pieces on offense and some linebackers and this feel like a Big 10 championship, and in turn, a playoff year. But I'll probably keep my expectations at a 10-win regular season. ;)

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Harlick

January 2nd, 2016 at 6:57 PM ^

I predicted 8-4 with 9-4 after a bowl victory. I thought we would beat either MSU or OSU with a couple of fluke loses. It was a great season with only one fluke loss and one what the hell was that loss.

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JayMo4

January 2nd, 2016 at 7:23 PM ^

I honestly thought we'd go 9-3 in the regular season, with our three likeliest losses being Utah, sparty, and OSU.  I posted that exact prediction when we did the whole preseason expectations thread months back.

I'm certainly not bragging, as I'm not always quite as dead-on as I was this year.  For what it's worth, I was basically wrong about the MSU game.  I mean, well, you know...

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m1jjb00

January 2nd, 2016 at 8:11 PM ^

But, I'm congentially optimistic and regularly do head gymnastics to ward off the negative truth.  So, I'm taking zero credit for it.

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WichitanWolverine

January 2nd, 2016 at 8:30 PM ^

Anywhere between 8-4 and 10-2, so 9-3 was right on the money. We simply don't play any teams we should lose to except for MSU, OSU, and ND (Utah this year). So I wasn't too impressed with 9-3 but the bowl win was awesome.

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jpmorganchaswood

January 2nd, 2016 at 9:22 PM ^

We did beat Sparty by 2 td"s. The B10 refs awarded lil" bro the win. You're welcome Jim. Would have  been 4 without the bogus targeting call.  We deservedly lost to Utah. Chalk that up to opening night jitters. I am on record for the contrast between our performance vs. OSU as opposed  to our performance vs. UF.  Go back to the MSU game, and youll see where the breakdown on defense, and the refusal to corrrect it occurred.

For the N'th thousandth time:::: Keep Jabril at home.....On his sde of the ball...Or OUT of the gameplan entirely!!!  Stop treating him like he's 'special'. Give the other thoroughbreds  in the stable their touches..

 

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JTGoBlue

January 2nd, 2016 at 9:52 PM ^

I was thinking 10 wins going into the OSU game, which I felt would be a toss-up. I knew we would beat Sparty, and I was right about that. All of the other games, save Utah, we were favored to win by a tangible margin as I recall, and I felt that Harbaugh would sufficiently prepare the team to win all of the games it should, and that we had a lot of underrated talent, experience, and depth on the team overall.



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ca_prophet

January 2nd, 2016 at 10:48 PM ^

With either a bowl win against a second-tier opponent or a loss against an elite team, pretty in line with Moonlight Graham above. I saw no way we'd beat OSU and wasn't convinced MSU would be as bad as everyone thought, and figured one of Utah/PSU would break badly for us. I was wrong - even with the OSU stomping we are ahead of where I thought we'd be. Go Blue!

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Jack Hammer

January 2nd, 2016 at 11:48 PM ^

I thought anything more (or equal to) than 7 wins. More importantly was seeing the quality of play. Besides the obvious 2H of OSU, this was pretty much a dream season. The bobble doesn't really bother me now. It was a fluke. I am more optimistic for our future now than I ever have been. I believe this staff will get more (and demand more).

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