Recruiting/Hoops Mailbag: California 'Crootin, Forward Improvement, Greatest-Case Scenario
Can Donnal and Chatman bounce back from underwhelming freshman campaigns? [Fuller]
This edition of the recruiting mailbag—now featuring hoops, too—covers the impact of KJ Costello's commitment to Stanford, a guess at when Harbaugh will land his first commitment, and some discussion of next season's basketball rotation.
Assuming Costello stays out West how big an impact does that have on all these other offers out there? Didn’t seem like too long ago we were hoping for Costello and a bunch of other guys to visit together? Would be great to have a West Coast Tentpole (it’s a thing I think), especially at QB, in the class to link up the offers (and optimism) with commitments.
Tx as always for your time.
Dana
Michigan's forays into California are always going to feature a lot of misses; they'll keep at it because the hits make it well worth the effort. Landing a whole group of Golden State prospects was always a longshot at best; even before Costello went off the board, receiver Theo Howard—who described Michigan as his "dream school" after receiving an offer—pledged to Oregon, and it looks like receiver Dylan Crawford could follow in Costello's footsteps.
Jim Harbaugh has already experienced some success recruiting the state, however. Getting five-star OLB Caleb Kelly to foot the bill for an unofficial visit was impressive, and Kelly's mentioned a desire to return for an official visit, which would be a great sign for Michigan's chances. Four-star OLB Camilo Eifler will take an unofficial days after the spring game. Four-star S CJ Pollard said he'd take an official visit as soon as he received his offer. Four-star TE Devin Asiasi is a good bet to take an official, as well. Several others at least have moderate interest; if I had to guess, I'd say Michigan gets at least one California prospect in the class.
That'd be a huge step in the right direction. Seth was kind enough to dig into his database when I asked him about California recruiting under previous coaches. The disparity between Lloyd Carr and the last two coaching staffs is huge:
Carr: Tom Brady, Russell Shaw (transfer), Patrick McCall, DeWayne Patmon, Justin Fargas, Hayden Epstein, Courtney Morgan, Charles Drake, Zach Kaufman, Calvin Bell, Tyler Ecker, Spencer Brinton (transfer), Matt Gutierrez, Leon Hall, Keston Cheathem, Morgan Trent, Eugene Germany, Jason Forcier, Chris Richards, Johnny Sears, Jonas Mouton, Zion Babb, Avery Horn, Donovan Warren, Michael Williams
Rodriguez (1): Tate. Unless you count Burzynski.
Hoke (2): Mags and Wile
Carr averaged about two California recruits a year, and he landed his fair share of big-time recruits, like Brady, Fargas, Mouton, and Warren. As Seth points out, a lot of those guys were from power programs, like Matt Gutierrez at Concord De La Salle—a connection forged back when Carr was the defensive coordinator and Michigan landed a wide receiver from DLS by the name of Amani Toomer. Reestablishing a strong rapport with California's top schools will pay off, even if it's more so in future classes than 2016.
[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the mailbag, which includes maybe the greatest reader email I've ever received.]
Just read about the busy visitor weekend, should we be holding our breath at all?
There hasn't been a prospect pointed out as an imminent commit watch candidate that I know about, but I think Harbaugh breaks through with his first 2016 commit sooner rather than later. Brady Hoke, who hit the recruiting trail with similar aplomb, if not the same national name recognition, got the initial commitment for his first full class (2012) on April 12th. With a ton of visitors on campus this weekend and next, Harbaugh should be able to best that, even if there isn't a blindingly obvious candidate at the moment.
@AceAnbender (1/2) how do you dictate the minutes for next years hoops team? Beilein has always had a short bench but next yrs team could be
— Andrew Wink (@andrewwink) March 27, 2015
@AceAnbender (2/2) really deep. can he buck his own trend and roll 9/10 deep? #mgomailbag
— Andrew Wink (@andrewwink) March 27, 2015
Unless a team has Kentucky talent, I'm not sure a nine- or ten-man rotation is optimal, and while Michigan does return a lot of depth next season I believe it's far more likely a player or two drops out of the rotation. Brian's already tried to piece together a minutes distribution and it's tough to find roles for everyone, especially if Caris LeVert returns.
At Michigan, Beilein's rotations have usually gone seven deep, or eight if there's a viable third center (Horford or, in last season's context, Bielfeldt) around, and those tightened up as the season went along. With so many options, I think a lot of guys see the floor early in the season as Beilein gets a sense of what he has and tinkers with different lineup combinations, but by the time Big Ten season rolls around he'll have set a shorter rotation. If that means MAAR or Chatman or Robinson doesn't see much time in 2015-16, that shouldn't be a huge issue—they all have plenty of eligibility left and more minutes will open up in 2016-17.
Ace,
While enormous improvement from sophomore guards has become pretty standard around here, forwards seem to be a little less predictable. What kind of progress should we expect to see next year from Chatman and Donnal, two of the bigger disappointments of this season?
David
For both Chatman and Donnal, getting more consistent with their shooting is paramount, and Beilein's track record provides plenty of optimism in that regard. With a year of strength training, it's also reasonable to expect progress on defense and the boards—especially for Chatman, who's got the wingspan and instincts to be M's best rebounding four. Donnal really has work to do there, as he was consistently overwhelmed by true post players, and usually had to resort to hacking—he had easily the worst foul rate on the team—to prevent easy buckets; he had a hard time preventing bigs from establishing position.
I'm more optimistic about Chatman's prospects than Donnal's, if for no other reason than Chatman not having the benefit of a redshirt year heading into last season. Based on Michigan's depth on the wings, however, there's a decent chance Donnal ends up with more playing time, barring a DJ Wilson breakout. (I'm by no means ruling out a DJ Wilson breakout.)
I somewhat doubt either is an integral part of the rotation next year—I certainly don't expect either to start—but the transition for bigger players to the college game can be a rough one; both are capable of taking a big leap. Chatman's got great length and shows flashes of top-notch skill, often with his passing. Donnal could change how the offense operates if he's able to hone his three-point shot and at least tread water on defense. We'll see.
Ace,
I've been trying to outline UM's best case scenario for 2015-2016, stop me if I get too unrealistic.
A healthy Derrick Walton takes a delayed sophomore leap to become an all B1G performer, accompanied in the backcourt by a returned Caris LeVert, who uses a NPOY campaign to solidify himself as a top 3 draft pick. Jaylen Brown commits to UM and joins Zak Irvin and Ricky Doyle in a vicious, athletic frontcourt.
Hip surgery revitalizes Spike Albrecht, and he leads a Kentucky-style, 5-man substitution 8 minutes into each game featuring MAAR at SG, who takes home B1G DPOY despite averaging just 16 mpg in B1G play. Kam Chatman's proverbial light turns all the way on, and he is joined in the 2nd unit frontcourt by Aubrey Dawkins(58% 3pt) and DJ Wilson(4.7 BPG)
Mark Donnal, Duncan Robinson, and Austin Hatch all take immense leaps forward, but can't sniff the rotation due to the talent on the rest of the roster. However, as Michigan participates in so many blowouts, these 3, plus Dakich and Lonergan, lead the team in minutes played.
During the course of the B1G season, Michigan goes into Kohl Center and hits 14/14 threes, intentionally putting every single one off the backboard. With his MSU squad down 28 at Crisler, Izzo deliberately injures his own players with a cricket bat to provide him with talking points at the post-game press conference.
During the NCAA tournament, Spike get's Kate's number.
After the undefeated season, Beilein takes the team on a barnstorming tour against US and global basketball powers. Opposing squad members often ask for autographs before the game or during timeouts. The world is shocked when the US National team manages to tie the game with 5 minutes left in the 2nd quarter.
Once the team's place in history is cemented, Beilein reveals himself as an ambassador for a superior race of mild-mannered extraterrestrials, scouting lightly-recruited Earth for entry into his planet's utopia. Earth commits, and the entire human race plus our cultural landmarks are transported across the stars to a new and better life.
During the journey, the unmanned ship carrying Value City Arena is plunged into the sun.
Did I miss anything?
--Abe
@Smoothitron
MGoBlog: Smoothitron
But do they beat the US National Team?
Unfortunately I don't think Jim's success recruiting California means much here and now. The two schools he was recruiting CA kids to were both in California, so there was likely more of a chance kids would've wanted to go to his schools anyway. Also, being out of the college game for 5 years many of the relationships he made with HS coaches have weakened, or in some cases disappeared altogether.
Harbaugh just spent the last few years as the pre-eminent NFL coach in the state of CA, and his QB protege Andrew Luck is the best young QB in the NFL now. Some of his connections may have weakened, but his status certainly has grown. We probably won't see it this year, but in another year or two, I expect Carr-level CA recruiting, if not better.
Bingo, 73.
And I would that coaches are a generally tight-knit community; relationships aren't going to vanish because a guy goes to the NFL. If they trusted Harbaugh before, they will trust him now, unless he gives them reason not to.
HS coaches are almost always looking out for the best interest of their players. Access to a school like Michigan and a staff like ours--led by Harbaugh--is a good thing for their players and their programs, and they will want to rekindle that relationship with Harbaugh. Sending your player to a great school that can also prepare him for the NFL is a win for you, the player, and your program...HS coaches want to see their players go as far as possible, and to be able to say, "You know who So-and-So rookie of the year in the NFL is? He played his HS ball here and got a degree from Michigan."
I seriously doubt JH's time away from college football has had much of negative impact on his connections, and I believe those bonds will be re-formed quickly.
The real problem is location--a lot of kids say, "distance isn't a factor," but most end-up committing close to home. Like Carr, if Harbaugh can get a couple players a year from CA, he's doing well. Ditto for Texas and the southeast. If we're pulling 6 elite or very good players per year from those regions, chances are we've got plenty of talent--that would be 20-30 of our total roster in addition to the talent we get from the B1G footprint.
probably need a change in NCAA rules. Kids are committing earlier than they did back then. Classes are mostly filled early, before official visits are permitted. That narrows the pool of recruits from far away that we have a decent shot at.
Allowing recruits to take official visits before their senior year, as they do in basketball, could make a big difference. I'm not optimistic we'll see that change any time soon. Schools in talent rich areas don't see it to be in their best interests. The ACC proposed an early signing period before official visits could even take place. An early signing period is likely coming very soon. It will only make recruiting in CA more difficult.
"But do they beat the US National Team?"
The softball team comes on at half and beats them by the newly implemented mercy rules.
Re: California I should have noted that Morgan Trent moved to Michigan (Brighton) in early HS and went to OLSM before coming to Ann Arbor.
From many paysite snippets, people seem to think that Duncan Robinson is either the 3rd or 4th best player on the team, in addition to being unanimously considered the best shooter. Regardless, Beilein seems to like to have a shooter to bring off the bench, so I think he'll assume that role for 20--25 mins a game.
Let's hope so but remember that Donnal was supposedly better than Morgan in the previous year and look how that turned out.
Ace -
Something that might be interesting to do this off-season is a piece like Brian does for football where he picks 27 tickets for the next season. If I had to rank the basketball players mostly likely to be a significant contributor next season, here's my list:
- Caris Levert (if he returns)
- Zak Irvin (big leap forward late this season, will get help from the rest of the roster)
- Ricky Doyle (much further ahead than any other post)
- Derrick Walton (only this low because he has a great back-up)
- Spike Albrecht (luxury)
- Aubry Dawkins (could start at PF or be spark off the bench)
- DJ Wilson (predicting he is the zone D force in the middle at center)
- MAAR (moves up if Levert leaves, Beilein now trusts him at PG/SG)
- Robinson (there's always room for a shooter off the bench)
- Chatman (still a chance he could start at PF with a big leap, has a long way to go)
- Donnal (more competition with Wilson/Doyle and role is less clear, could move up)
This team's success will be determined by the progress everyone taller than 6'7" makes this offseason. Robinson, Chatman, Wilson, Doyle, and Donnal are the key to next year. Any of those guys could end up starting and playing 20+ minutes and any of those guys (except Doyle) could fade into the end of the bench.
What Michigan probably would most want is for one of Robinson/Chatman to establish themseles as a solid contributor at forward while one of WIlson/Donnal pushes Doyle for playing time and isn't just a foul magnet. I would like to see a 9 man rotation with a couple of guys told to play their butts off for 10 minutes per game on D (MAAR, Wilson) or O (Robinson). I love the idea of how flexible this team is, the defensive lineup we could throw out there, or even being more willing to play physical since fouls won't kill us at any position.
Here's my list for that scenario:
- Irvin
- Walton
- Doyle
- Spike
- Dawkins
- MAAR
- Wilson
- Robinson
- Chatman
- Donnal
I might be too optimistic on Wilson (he was awful in his cameo this year) and too pessimistic on Donnal (he was still a young freshman).
That's fun. Here's mine:
1) LeVert
2) Walton
3) Irvin (this is cumulative average Irvin from 2014/15, but if it's the Irvin we saw over the last few games of the year, then he's 2 and Walton is 3)
4) Spike (he carried the team at times this past year)
5) Dawkins (will probably move past Spike assuming the offseason goes well)
6) MAAR (best defender on the team)
7) Duncan Robinson (I think he has the chance to move past MAAR and Spike, but not Dawkins if Dawkins improves)
8) Doyle (our big men just aren't that great)
9) Chatman (flashes late in the season)
10) Donnal
11) DJ Wilson (looked lost in his limited appearances)
He was born in California (I didn't know that until just now) but he grew up in Brighton and attended OLSM.
That email is gold, Jerry! Gold!
"MAAR" is terrible. Especially when said out loud.
The team calls him Rahk. Call him that. Or just Rahkman.
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Next year's bball team is going to be great and extremely fun to watch. I bet Belien is more excited to coach next year's team than any other team. Mainly because he as the luxury of coaching each game differently. That's a coach's dream!
He will have the flexibility to play his opponents to their weaknesses more than ever. He can go with a really large lineup with Walton, Irvin, Dawkins/Chatman, Robinson/Chatman, Doyle/Wilson. Or he can go with a smaller quicker lineup with Irvin at the 4 and Dawkins and Rahk in the 2-3. Or if Donnal picks up his shooting, he can throw 5 guys out there than can hit 3's.
Think of the length he can throw out there for his 1-3-1 zone. Or if he wanted to do the pseudo-matchup 2-3 zone they ran a little.
I agree with Ace that he will still want to run 5-8 players per game, but I think those 3 subs will interchange depending on the matchups.
It sounds like Levert is leaning towards coming back, which makes me really excited to see how this team develops. We will be a force that could make a deep run in the tourney.
man rotation is optimal.
I disagree that you need to have that same level of talent. What you need is an euqal talent level so that there isn't a drop off from the Maize to Blue team. If you leave guys of equal talent on the bench, about all you gain is the further developement of those you choose to play at the expense of those who sit. If you play them all, you (1) keep guys fresh, (2) develope everyone equally, (3) keep guys out of foul trouble, (4) allow yourself to play at a faster pace or harder on defense and, maybe most importantly, (5) keep everyone involved and happy.
Not saying that Beilein will or should use this, but he may find that the talent is there that he could.
We won't have real traction with many top football recruits until the on-field performance has changed. Right now, the memory of our actual games last year is too much of a bad taste. But if we start seeing signs of HARBAUGH! on the field next season (which I fully expect) then watch for things to change. I expect Jim will be very effective with the top recruits who remain uncommitted late in the calendar year.
Is the number of high quality players that have enough interest in Harbaugh and the program to come here, on their own dime, to check out Spring practice, and the Spring game, and it is these players that are most likely to come to Michigan later on down the line when we start winning, hopefully right away this Fall, and it is for this reason that I would like to see Lavonta Taylor, so he can see the difference in how the staff coaches the team, as opposed to the former staff, make a visit to A.A. during this time, for if he doesn't, it is likely he will latch onto some other program, and go there, and never really know what he missed, as far as coaching and instruction are concerned.
/dies.
2016 B-ball will be good.
Except the part of Izzo injurying his team with cricket bats if he goes down big to UM. 100% buy that.
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Toomer came in under Moeller so he isn't on the Carr list.
"Texas as always for your time". Confused the hell out of me (._.)
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love it
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