Basketbullets: Hillsdale
11/15/2014 – Michigan 92, Hillsdale 68, 1-0
AHHHHHHHHHHHH basketball exists [Dustin Johnston/UMHoops]
No drama just bullets:
Big three. Big three. Big three. Chances a basketball podcast uses "The Big Three Killed My Baby"—the White Stripes' screechy intro to the world off their self-titled debut—are 99.9%. Outside of the uber-recruit laden one-and-done factories There are few in the country who can match Michigan 1 to 3. The backcourt troika all went over 20 points efficiently, and there is more where that came from.
Yes, just a D-II team, but even so Walton/Irvin/LeVert all cracked 20 points on 13-ish shot equivalents. None of these guys got their points via volume. As a result, they picked up where they left off last year at 1.33 points per possession. Single-game ORTGs for the big three: 170, 166, and 144. That's nuts.
Usage was also in the same range it was last year: the six guys who cracked ten minutes all had their usage fall between 16 (Chatman) and 25 (Albrecht!) percent. Last year's Michigan team was efficient in part because no individual player had a particularly heavy load. Even without Stauskas they look ready to repeat that feat.
Individually:
- LeVert looks ready to take over the late-shot-clock mantle capably handled by Burke and Stauskas the last couple years. He's a long 6'7" with an excellent ability to get to his spot and get off a clean jumper, and that's a fine option when you have to get a shot off, any shot. Also he had nine assists. And eight rebounds.
- Walton, meanwhile, is also verging on being able to get what he wants when he wants it. He got the the line ten times, had four assist and just one TO. I don't want to talk about a Trey leap yet… but hey man Beilein point guards have gotten really really good in year two. Hell, you could even throw Stauskas in there if you want.
- Irvin didn't fill up the box score like he did against Wayne State; he did show off a couple of drives off of closeouts that were absent from his game last year. He was actually 5/6 from inside the line… which is about a month's worth of games from last year.
In re: Irvin twos: About half of those were THJ-style pull-up jumpers just inside the line. You know me and my hatred of long twos, but even I have to admit those looked like they might go down often enough to be a decent option.
[After THE JUMP: the five spot, defensive issues, calmer than you are.]
The five spot. I was surprised that Donnal got 26 minutes—thought they'd split it something like 16-16-8 between Donnal, Doyle, and Wilson. Instead Doyle got just 9 minutes. He was productive in those minutes with seven points, at least.
Donnal did flash some of that shooting ability he had in high school, hitting a pick and pop fifteen footer, and was a capable defender against a lower-level opponent. I still think that as Doyle gets more comfortable in the system they're going to want to use him more against big mean guys.
Here is a nice thing: Donnal and Doyle combined to go 6/7 from the line.
Defensive issues: youth. I'm not trying to pile on a guy in his first official game but to my eyes a lot—like a lot a lot—of Michigan's defensive problems fell in Kam Chatman's lap.
An early free dunk for Hillsdale (gif by Ace) was a good example of what went wrong: Chatman ended up switching onto a perimeter player, but nothing came of it. Hillsdale reset; Walton picked up the guard again and Chatman switched to his original man. Chatman didn't actually get between him and the basket, though, and he wasn't fronting either—not that you can do that 15 feet from the basket anyway. That was a gift.
That kind of awareness deficit was consistent throughout the night. Multiple easy buckets in the second half featured Chatman running after a cutter. This was in fact why Michigan played this team: they wanted to get their freshmen burned in a real game in front of people. Hillsdale is a D-II version of Wisconsin—everyone can shoot and they run the swing. They got burned in a 92-68 win and hopefully won't be similarly burned tonight—Bucknell is also a swing team—and will be better prepared to slay the Big Ten's dragon of the year when it's time to do that.
Anyway, back to Chatman: it didn't help that Hillsdale's best player was a skilled 4 who hit a Kobe-like 37% usage rate. When Chatman was in position to guard he did a very good job; it was off-ball stuff that was the main issue. Chatman's got great size and uses that size to be a pest—he had four steals—but he looked far less ready to execute his assignments than anyone else who got double-digit minutes.
Wilson minutes were sparse [Bryan Fuller]
Given that, where's the alternative options? With Chatman scuffling on both ends—he finished 1 for 7—I was surprised that Michigan didn't take a look at DJ Wilson at the 4. Wilson got the last couple minutes there, but only nine overall; all of his time was at the 5. Aubrey Dawkins was a GRIII-ish undersized 4 when Chatman left during the first 35 minutes.
Rotation. Spike had 16 minutes, Dawkins and MAAR scrapped over 11, and Wilson and Doyle rotated in at the two frontcourt spots. That's going to be your pattern. In Brooklyn I wouldn't bet against a small lineup of Spike/Walton/LeVert/Irvin/Post down the stretch. What it gives up in size it makes up for with experience and ball security.
I think we're all pretty calm but let's get even calmer man. Last year's opener featured what was essentially a D-II team—UMass Lowell was in their first year of D-I. Michigan was tied with them at halftime.
Meanwhile, ten games deep into the season I remember muttering about how Michigan was going to have to get something, anything from the freshmen if they were going to survive in the Big Ten. Michigan's system is complicated and Beilein's getting publicly frustrated at how long it's taking; it'll be a slow burn for most of these guys. If history is any guide, a couple of them will emerge into solid bench guys midseason and one will come from nowhere to be a high level NBA prospect.
Hooray for the old charge rule. Early yet but those calls feel a lot more intuitive than they did a year ago. Were you square to the shooter? Did you get plowed in the chest? If so, charge.
I know we want to see more offense but futzing with the charge rule was not the way to go about doing that. Handchecking, bumping screens… that's the kind of stuff to focus on.
November 17th, 2014 at 12:19 PM ^
I love you John Beilein for allowing me to forget it's still football season. Like what I've seen out of Walton so far.
November 17th, 2014 at 12:57 PM ^
November 17th, 2014 at 1:21 PM ^
I mean, probably. I don't really know, but I kind of know. You know?
November 17th, 2014 at 12:24 PM ^
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November 17th, 2014 at 12:55 PM ^
But I worry they were sacrificing getting their hands up to stop the 3 from going off. I felt like there were quite a few three balls that wouldn't have come up if we closed out with our hands up instead of down.
November 17th, 2014 at 12:28 PM ^
is going to be so much better than people expect. I think he will be second team All-BIG, with a ceiling even higher than that.
November 17th, 2014 at 12:45 PM ^
Who are these people of which you speak?
November 17th, 2014 at 12:59 PM ^
who don't think he is going to be as good as I do.
Duh.
November 17th, 2014 at 2:10 PM ^
Is a better supporting cast. He probably won't match his volume, but he should be a far more efficient player. That might be enough to end up first team...but probably not.
November 17th, 2014 at 12:34 PM ^
If history is any guide, a couple of them will emerge into solid bench guys midseason and one will come from nowhere to be a high level NBA prospect.We will probably drop a few by mid-season we should've won, then we'll be dangerous come B1G season, then really dangerous by tournament time. One of the freshman will be projected as 1st rounder in 2017 by season's end because that's just what Beilein does.
November 17th, 2014 at 12:44 PM ^
Donnal and Wilson > Doyle
November 17th, 2014 at 1:34 PM ^
I tend to agree with you. Donnal is much more active on the boards and Wilson is just so athletic, but there are going to be team we play with a big, beefy 5 and Doyle will be the only one who can really handle him. Wilson is a match-up problem of his own, but he won't be able to bang around down low. Donnal might be able to, I've read reports that he's a lot stronger than he looks, but when we play against teams whose 5 is 250+ and loves to sit down low, Doyle will be needed a lot more.
I also thought Doyle was a little more aggressive near the hoop. Donnal had a few of those 'just throw it down, big man!" moments that Jordan Morgan had a lot of in his career (even though they mostly went in), whereas Doyle seemed to attack the hoop a little more in his time.
November 17th, 2014 at 2:09 PM ^
Donnal and Wilson will be physically overmatched against bigger bigmen. We need Doyle to be a Graham Brown style presence.
Doyle has been a bit banged up but still looked solid in his limited minutes.
Hillsdale performance needs to be taken with a grain of salt.
November 17th, 2014 at 3:32 PM ^
I just don't see him as the main guy at the 5 like the article is hinting. I have yet to see it.
November 17th, 2014 at 12:44 PM ^
November 17th, 2014 at 12:57 PM ^
I didn't see it like that. I saw it as he was open and he was taking the shot no matter where he was. The dude just makes shots so I'm not complaining.
November 17th, 2014 at 12:55 PM ^
Also, for the future, they have to start thinking about getting some time at the 4 for either/both Wilson and Donnal, don't they? That's three guys who are all the same class playing the 5, and the 4 looks like Chatman...and then a guy who probably fits much better at the 3? Hell, Chatman may also possibly be able to play some 3 if he can improve his shooting; he certainly has the handle. And Robinson for next year seems like a gaurd as well despite his size. I can understand not throwing too much at the freshman early, but eventually I think they need to move Donnal or Wilson to more significant 4 time.
November 17th, 2014 at 1:09 PM ^
said the same thing about Morford but Beilein hardly every did it. He does not lile playing two bigs. I think you will see some Donnoyle and Wilson, but hardly any Donnal and Doyle.
November 17th, 2014 at 2:09 PM ^
I'm guessing that only applies if both of the guys lack much, if any, perimeter game. If he has a big who can step out and hit a 15-17' jumper, if not longer, I'm guessing he'd be fine having a couple of 'big' men on the court at the same time.
November 17th, 2014 at 1:51 PM ^
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November 17th, 2014 at 2:07 PM ^
he probably shouldn't be.
November 17th, 2014 at 6:03 PM ^
Beilein was going to play two bigs...but then McGary was out for the year. There's no reason to play two bigs when your only two bigs are Horford and Morgan.
November 17th, 2014 at 1:33 PM ^
November 17th, 2014 at 1:39 PM ^
It also might have something to do with the opponent. Hillsdale's 4 was that Cooper kid who was a lot more of a wing than a big (he shot 7 threes, and made 4 of them) and he barely sat. This is not the opponent you play 2 bigs against. When we play teams who have a center and an actual power forward, we might see someone like Wilson playing alongside Donnal or Doyle more often.
November 17th, 2014 at 2:03 PM ^
Wilson and Donnal look very much a year or two away from being able to play the 4. Let's let them get their duties down at the 5 spot before we start shuffling them to another spot.
November 17th, 2014 at 2:06 PM ^
That sounds like a good problem to have. Right now, we don't have any established players at the 5. If we get to a point where we have 3, let's talk again.
Beilein has said as much wrt Wilson. Will start at 5 and may move to 3/4 down the line, but not this year.
On this season's team we have plenty of guards, so their minutes should be maximized, not the frontcourt.
Robinson sounds like a pure 3 to me -- I dont think he'll be able to defend 2s. He's more likely to be a Beilein 4 than a Beilein 2, IMO.
November 17th, 2014 at 1:09 PM ^
is showing why first-year players often struggle at both ends of the floor. But at times he has flashed the skill that makes him such a great player in space. You can see why he is a with the potential to become something special. He had trouble handling switches and was behind cutters to the basket on defense, and yet in many off-ball situations, he did a great job of jumping pass lanes and anticipating passes.
It is pretty clear just from a little bit of what this team has shown that defense will be a work in progress expecially around the basket, but Michigan is going to excite its fans with a lot of transition baskets and runs that are prompted byt quick hands and good anticipation.
So far, finishing around the basket has been a problem for the young guys. Even Albrecht who has taken a lot of off-hand layup attempts that have missed, did so intentionally in some cases knowing he had size behind him. I just love Albrecht's ability to make plays and know when to make them. He is one smart basketball player.
November 17th, 2014 at 1:09 PM ^
is showing why first-year players often struggle at both ends of the floor. But at times he has flashed the skill that makes him such a great player in space. You can see why he is a with the potential to become something special. He had trouble handling switches and was behind cutters to the basket on defense, and yet in many off-ball situations, he did a great job of jumping pass lanes and anticipating passes.
It is pretty clear just from a little bit of what this team has shown that defense will be a work in progress expecially around the basket, but Michigan is going to excite its fans with a lot of transition baskets and runs that are prompted byt quick hands and good anticipation.
So far, finishing around the basket has been a problem for the young guys. Even Albrecht who has taken a lot of off-hand layup attempts that have missed, did so intentionally in some cases knowing he had size behind him. I just love Albrecht's ability to make plays and know when to make them. He is one smart basketball player.
November 17th, 2014 at 1:13 PM ^
I thought WIlson looked pretty good defensively. He seemed to alter a lot of shots, considering he only played a few minutes.
November 17th, 2014 at 2:00 PM ^
but he often didn't know where he was going and he didn't look very strong in establishing position against even Hillsdale's dudes. He's raw, but promising.
November 17th, 2014 at 1:14 PM ^
a couple WTF games coming up early, but like all Coach B. teams they just keep getting better.
Looking forward to a fun season.
Hail!
November 17th, 2014 at 1:14 PM ^
It was a really fun game to go to. We had a little Chargers cheering section up behind one of the baskets (Sections 212-214) and were able to get some pretty big cheers the first five minutes or so. However, Hillsdale's offense with all the motion takes some time to get used to...the same thing happened last year when we played IU, we jumped out ahead 13-3 or something like that before the game settles down. Michigan is far too athletic for any lead like that to last and they were able to clog some passing lanes and get steals after learning the motion of the offense. The rest of the game on Hillsdale's side was trying to find that rhythm of the first few minutes again, but except for a little run midway through the second half that didn't materialize.
On offense for Michigan I was really impressed with the ball movement of the perimeter guys particularly kicking out on drives. Walton looks very comfortable (again all the D-II caviats apply) at penetrating and orchestrating the offense, as mentioned earlier he could be one of the best points in the league...he's come a ways from this time last year. Irvin looks much improved as well. Levert seemed quiet to me but then you look at his stat sheet and realize he had a massive impact Hillsdale had great contests on pretty much all the initial shots that Michigan missed because they were going full bore...well, they aren't quite that athletic to keep it up and once Michigan's shooters had an extra half-foot or more of space the jumpers rained in. The interior for Michigan seems pretty uncertain...will need to iron out a rotation there.
Overall I have high hopes for Michigan this year in the Big Ten. Obviously we have Wisconsin as the favorites but Michigan's guard play and shooting are the class of the conference. It's a similar kind of team to last years, albeit without a dominant guy like Stauskas but with an added year of experience for all the perimeter guys and maybe a bit more inside scoring (the one thing J Mo wasn't great at and McGary wasn't present to give them that.)
November 17th, 2014 at 3:31 PM ^
"albeit without a dominant guy like Stauskas"
LeVert will have a larger impact on the game than Stauskas.
November 17th, 2014 at 3:44 PM ^
You really think so? On offense or defense? Obviously early and small sample size etc. but it seems as though offensively Walton will take a bigger share than last year in ballhandling, so Levert may be used more as a spot-up guy and slasher than an iso-type, except when Michigan needs to create late in the shot clock. And even then I wouldn't be surprised to see Walton be more assertive in that drive and kick role than he was last year. Stauskas had a huge role in ballhandling and scoring last year that I just don't see Levert approaching in usage, even if he is much improved, simply because the rest of the team and perimeter guys will also see their usage increase.
I think Levert on defense no question will be superior to Stauskas, he's just better in man and zone and with his length and quickness will be tougher for teams to attack. Stauskas wasn't a slouch defensively but I like Levert more to defend against a team's best wing player.
November 17th, 2014 at 4:03 PM ^
Stauskas was BAD defensively. LeVert also rebounds the ball well.
As good of a PnR passer as Nik was, Caris is a solid PnR playmaker and can drive and dish and find guys in transition in ways that Nik cannot.
I don't see Levert equalling Stauskas' TS% but he will be a threat from more areas of the floor.
16-18 ppg 4-5 rpg 3-6 pg 1 spg 40% 3 pt with solid defense
November 17th, 2014 at 8:33 PM ^
I'm thinking more like 13-14 ppg... Walton and Irvin will be taking more shots. But I agree that he's a more well-rounded player at this point that Stauskas was.
November 17th, 2014 at 1:19 PM ^
I don't want to talk about a Trey leap yet… but hey man Beilein point guards have gotten really really good in year two. Hell, you could even throw Stauskas in there if you want.
*paging Derryck Thornton* we might need another starting PG soon
November 17th, 2014 at 1:20 PM ^
My brother thought he saw you at the hockey game this weekend. Will there be a hockeybullets companion post?
November 17th, 2014 at 1:41 PM ^
I'd love to see the stats on this, but I believe Caris already had this role pretty often last year, especially earlier in the year before Nik got his swag in full.
It'll be interesting to see who (Derrick or Zak) ends up taking more of whatever late-shots Caris doesn't. Presumably, it'll be Walton.
November 17th, 2014 at 1:45 PM ^
Chatman's 1-7 was a little misleading. It's not like he had 7 looks, and only converted one of them, he started the game 0-2 right off the bat on a good shot and a putback attempt that were both tough, and he missed them. This was like 20 seconds into his career, and he was a little shaky. If anything, the aggression on the ability to get that putback attempt is a positive. After that first possession he was 1-5. Still not great or anything, but it makes it look a little better. And the one he got was pretty sweet.
November 17th, 2014 at 1:59 PM ^
Even his make was a pretty difficult. Poor shot selection may be improved as the season goes on, but his outside shot is also still developing. I think there's a chance he's a low efficiency player all season. It's good to see the aggressiveness in the early part of the season but there's obviously a lot of room for improvement.
For THIS team, we need him to ease it back a little bit and follow the role-playing 4 man tradition that has become a big part of Beilein's system. Rebounding, defense, corner 3s and so on.
November 17th, 2014 at 1:54 PM ^
- Irvin will play significant minutes here; Michigan's best lineup has 3 smaller guards beside him, and...
- Dawkins is still an excellent bet to emerge in the rotation. He has immediately applicable skills (athleticism and shooting). He is also a coach;s kid and pretty old (for his age) so he should figure things out soon. He's probably too skinny to defend a lot of 4s but the two positions are interchangeable on offense. He could play alongside Irvin.
- Wilson is more needed at the 5 and should focus on getting that down for this season. Asking a raw freshman to learn two very different positions is overly ambitious IMO.
- Chatman will struggle - This was inevitable given his extremely low level of competition last season. But has talent, size, and skill to be fine.
- The silver lining of the 4 struggles is that the underappreciated GR3 might get a little more credit.
November 17th, 2014 at 7:24 PM ^
Underappreciated GRIII? He was one of the most overappreciated players we've had in a while. Take away his elite recruit status, his name and the occasional awesome dunk and he was a solid player at best. Everyone was waiting for him to be great, and he never was.
People wanted him to break out his frosh year, but he never really did. Then everyone said that with Burke and Hardaway gone, GRIII would break out, but again he never did. Some said that he should have stayed a year because with Stuaskas gone he could have taken the reigns, but I still doubt he would have. I wish he was on the team so Chatman could rotate in off the bench, but GRIII was certainly not underappreciated.
November 17th, 2014 at 2:00 PM ^
November 17th, 2014 at 2:13 PM ^
He looks pretty solid early on for Florida and would have served as a defensive anchor for this team.
Losing both those guys at once, neither for any really good reason from our perspective, is so frustrating.
November 17th, 2014 at 4:28 PM ^
Still not totally sold on Horford. I mean, I wish him the best of luck at UF, but I just don't see him being the 'we would be a FF team if he were here' caliber of player. If he is as UF, well then that's probably like the first strike against Beilein in the proper deployment/talent identification department. I give Beilein the benefit of the doubt at this point. And while UM could totally use Horford right now, I just don't think he was some force to be reckoned with Beilein was holding back. I honestly think he just hasn't been as good the people he couldn't beat out at UM.
November 17th, 2014 at 2:18 PM ^
Yes that's the amazing thing - despite losing Nik and GR3 if Beilein had caught Mitch instead of the NCAA he'd be sitting 3 games and back in a week from now. And instead of a big 3 you'd have a big 4, which could match up with any 4 in the country. The 5th would have no need for offensive responsibility with Caris, Irvin, Mitch and Walton as your primary 4 starters. And its a top 5 team in the country. That class was one for the ages.
November 17th, 2014 at 2:27 PM ^
Yeah, I wasn't too worried about the defense. They can swarm and turn it on when necessary, and all that length in the background really can help the young defenders inside. I agree that a couple of the young kids will grow into their roles, and if they can win this convincingly despite the complaints it is hard to get too worked up.
November 17th, 2014 at 2:46 PM ^
November 17th, 2014 at 3:21 PM ^
I have yet to see anyone come close to being a frustratingly consistent "just inside the line" jump shooter. Jackson seemed like the best 19'8" (before they moved the line back) jump shooter who ever lived, which only increased his confidence in that terrible shot.
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