2014-15 hillsdale

You may have noticed, especially during the second half of Monday's thumping of Bucknell, that Michigan's offense has looked a little different this season. This season's shot chart, via Shot Analytics, puts it in picture form (green dots are makes, red misses):

A little over 34% of Michigan's shots this season have come from midrange, compared to just over 25% last season. It's not a good change, either; midrange jumpers are by nature the game's most inefficient, and the Wolverines are hitting just 33% of such shots this season, down from 39% in 2013-14. A higher volume and lower efficiency is obviously not a good thing.

A closer look reveals that there may be something here worth sticking with, however. With the usual sample size caveats applying, here's a simple breakdown of what's working and what's not:

(If you're wondering why it looks like a three is included in Irvin's chart, he had a foot on the line.)

Simply put, Zak Irvin is working, and a look at the tape reveals that this may be no fluke, especially since Irvin wasn't bad on midrange elbow jumpers last season (8/19). Here are all of Irvin's midrange attempts from this season:

He's getting these shots primarily in two ways: catch-and-shoot jumpers (3/3) and step-ins when defenders overplay his outside shot (2/4). The aborted drive to the rim off a curl-cut stands as the exception, not the rule.

[Hit THE JUMP for a look at why the rest of the team isn't shooting like Irvin, as well as a picture pages of how M is getting Irvin good midrange looks.]

THE ESSENTIALS

THE LINEUP CARD

Projected starters are in bold.

Stats are obviously from last year, as Bucknell has played just one game this season, a 75-72 home victory over KenPom's #225-ranked Marist. Three starters return from last season's 16-win squad; they're denoted with an asterisk. For those who've forgotten the "Should I Be Mad If He Hits A Three" methodology, we're mad if a guy who's not good at shooting somehow hits one. Yes, you're still allowed to be unhappy if a proven shooter is left open.

Pos.	#	Name	Yr.	Ht./Wt.	%Min	%Poss	SIBMIHHAT
G	32	Ryan Frazier	Jr.	6'0, 190	46	15	Sort of
Low-usage role player last year takes care of ball, but not a playmaker.
G	3	Steven Kaspar*	Sr.	6'3, 196	61	24	Yes
High volume, low efficiency; tons of assists, lots of TOs, gets to line, poor shooter.
G	14	Chris Hass*	Jr.	6'5, 184	63	21	No
40% 3-point shooter; solid midrange game, too, but not good finishing at the rim.
F	50	Dom Hoffman*	Jr..	6'7, 222	41	21	N/A
Decent rebounder, okay finisher at rim, half of shots were 2-pt jumpers he hit at 31%.
C	20	Nana Foulland	Fr.	6'9, 227	--	--	--
2 points on 1/6 shooting, 5 boards (1 off.), and... zero fouls in his debut. WTF, man.
G	5	John Azzinaro	So.	5'11, 180	30	18	Sort of
Backup point takes care of ball but iffy shooter who doesn't initiate a lot of offense.
F	0	DJ MacLeay	So.	6'7, 213	11	18	Yes
Lots of rebounds, tons of turnovers in very limited time last season.
G	12	JC Show	Fr.	6'2, 204	--	--	No
Last year's Pennsylvania Mr. Basketball scored 12 points in 18 mins in debut.

NANA FOULLAND. THAT IS ALL.

THE THEM

Though they posted an uncharacteristic 16-14 record in 2013-14, failing to make postseason play for the first time since 2010, Bucknell is no pushover; they've been the class of the Patriot League for much of coach Dave Paulsen's six-year tenure, running that swing offense that gave Michigan plenty of trouble off the ball against Hillsdale.

That said, this is still a game Michigan should win comfortably. The Bison lost their leading scorer from a season ago, high-volume sharpshooter Cameron Ayers, as well as their leading rebounder and a couple key role players. 

The backcourt is one Michigan's talented group should be able to handle. Steven Kaspar is a combo guard who commands the ball a fair amount for someone who doesn't take a lot of shots; he posted the nation's sixth-highest assist rate last year, but combined it with a very inflated turnover rate (25.7%) and poor shooting (42.0 eFG%). Ryan Frazier had a very low usage for a de facto point guard; he's asked to do more on defense than offense, where he's a low-volume, low-efficiency shooter with a knack for getting to the line.

Michigan must keep a close eye on the third starting guard, Chris Hass, who hit 40% of his 117 three-point attempts last season. He takes nearly half his field goals from beyond the arc and he's less effective the closer he gets to the rim; he's a good midrange shooter (44% on two-point jumpers, per hoop-math) and a sub-par finisher at the basket (46%).

Power forward Dom Hoffman worked his way into the starting lineup towards the end of 2013-14, and that coincided with a regular-season-ending six-game winning streak for the Bison. He's a solid rebounder who does almost all of his work on offense near the hoop. Center Nana Foulland is a true freshman who disappointingly didn't record a foul in Bucknell's opener; he struggled from the field and—at 6'9", 227, with minimal experience—could be exploited inside.

They key backup to watch is 2014 Pennsylvania Gatorade Player of the Year JC Show, a lightly regarded recruit who was obviously quite productive at the high school level. Show poured in 12 points in just 18 minutes in the opener against Marist, hitting both his two-pointers while going 2/5 from three.

KenPom gives Michigan a 93% chance to win this one. While Bucknell's off-ball movement could give the Wolverines some trouble, they have to replace quite a bit of production from a team that disappointed last year—the Bison were fifth in this year's preseason Patriot League poll and currently sit at #178 on KenPom. Michigan will continue to have growing pains, but this is a game where they should be able to work through them and come out comfortably on top.

THE TEMPO-FREE

Still too early for this. Last year Bucknell was heavily reliant on three-point shooting to score points, so it'll be interesting to see how they adjust while rolling out a starting lineup with just one proven outside shooter. On defense, they rarely forced turnovers but did a remarkable job—second-best nationally, in fact—of keeping opponents off the offensive glass. Both those trends continued in their season opener.

THE KEYS

Stay between the man and the basket. A simple request, sure, but Michigan's young bigs—especially Kameron Chatman—had a lot of trouble sticking with their assignment off the ball against Hillsdale's motion- and pick-heavy swing offense. Bucknell will give Michigan a similar look with better, experienced players. Better communication during off-ball screens would solve a lot of Michigan's woes in this department; on Saturday, defenders looked far too unsure of when (and when not) to switch.

Keep firing. This looks like a great matchup for Michigan's three stars. Derrick Walton is going against a low-usage point guard; he should be able to give plenty of help defensively while looking to hit the boards and initiate the break, which he's great at doing. Both Caris LeVert and Zak Irvin are going to have size advantages over their respective matchups; in LeVert's case, he'll also have the chance to get Michigan going in transition by guarding the turnover-prone Kaspar. Irvin will shoot, because that's what he does, and that's perfectly fine. Should be another game in which these three dominate the ball and carry much of the load.

Help off most. Bucknell doesn't have much in the way of shooters out there; Hass is the only reliable outside threat in the starting five, while JC Show seems to be the only dangerous bench scorer. If Kaspar is going to the rim time and again—he's not a great finisher but he does draw quite a few fouls—Michigan can collapse inside, helping off just about anyone aside from Hass. Giving up a few open outside jumpers won't be the worst thing in the world.

THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES

Michigan by 15.

ELSEWHERE

UMHoops preview.

GIFs

It's a basketball/football crossover week so I didn't have time to put together a full OFAAT post, but here are several GIFs from Saturday's game and a couple from the exhibition against Wayne State. Click the links to open each GIF in a lightbox.

Wayne State:

Austin Hatch's free throw.
The Beilein/Hatch hug.

Hillsdale:

LeVert steal/slam. Alternate view of the dunk.
Irvin breakaway one-handed dunk.
Chatman goes coast-to-coast.
Zak Irvin, alone in front of the pack, fades to the corner and drills a three. I love this.
Spike steals, does not dunk.
LeVert to Doyle for the and-one.
LeVert lob to Doyle.
Might want to guard that guy.
Slick save by Mark Donnal.
Holy hell, Aubrey Dawkins.

11/15/2014 – Michigan 92, Hillsdale 68, 1-0

AHHHHHHHHHHHH basketball exists [Dustin Johnston/UMHoops]

No drama just bullets:

Big three. Big three. Big three. Chances a basketball podcast uses "The Big Three Killed My Baby"—the White Stripes' screechy intro to the world off their self-titled debut—are 99.9%. Outside of the uber-recruit laden one-and-done factories There are few in the country who can match Michigan 1 to 3. The backcourt troika all went over 20 points efficiently, and there is more where that came from.

Yes, just a D-II team, but even so Walton/Irvin/LeVert all cracked 20 points on 13-ish shot equivalents. None of these guys got their points via volume. As a result, they picked up where they left off last year at 1.33 points per possession. Single-game ORTGs for the big three: 170, 166, and 144. That's nuts.

Usage was also in the same range it was last year: the six guys who cracked ten minutes all had their usage fall between 16 (Chatman) and 25 (Albrecht!) percent. Last year's Michigan team was efficient in part because no individual player had a particularly heavy load. Even without Stauskas they look ready to repeat that feat.

Individually:

• LeVert looks ready to take over the late-shot-clock mantle capably handled by Burke and Stauskas the last couple years. He's a long 6'7" with an excellent ability to get to his spot and get off a clean jumper, and that's a fine option when you have to get a shot off, any shot. Also he had nine assists. And eight rebounds.
• Walton, meanwhile, is also verging on being able to get what he wants when he wants it. He got the the line ten times, had four assist and just one TO. I don't want to talk about a Trey leap yet… but hey man Beilein point guards have gotten really really good in year two. Hell, you could even throw Stauskas in there if you want.
• Irvin didn't fill up the box score like he did against Wayne State; he did show off a couple of drives off of closeouts that were absent from his game last year. He was actually 5/6 from inside the line… which is about a month's worth of games from last year.

In re: Irvin twos: About half of those were THJ-style pull-up jumpers just inside the line. You know me and my hatred of long twos, but even I have to admit those looked like they might go down often enough to be a decent option.

[After THE JUMP: the five spot, defensive issues, calmer than you are.]