Let's Try To Make A Basketball Roster
Dusty May is in, baby, and it's time to acquire… well… a basketball team. Michigan currently has four scholarship players and nine empty chairs. Two of the guys in hypothetically full chairs, Nimari Burnett and Terrance Williams, walked on senior day, and a third is the son of the recently departed head coach. There is a nonzero chance the roster right now is Will Tschetter.
Dusty May's got work to do. How does Michigan fill those chairs?
RETAIN… uh… CROOT
Durral Brooks is in.
RAID FAU
FAU did not go with an internal hire, instead picking off Baylor assistant John Jakus. Most insider chatter was already very positive about Michigan grabbing some former Owls; the chances just went up further.
Three starters and four rotation players still have eligibility. Starters Johnell Davis, Vladislav Goldin, and Alijah Martin all have COVID years should they desire them. They would be grad transfers, so Michigan's persnickety admissions department shouldn't be a problem. Those three were the highest-usage players on a top-50 Kenpom team and should up-transfer just fine. Goldin entered the portal yesterday. He is also testing NBA draft waters. Martin and Davis both went through portions of the draft process last year, FWIW, and people seem to expect they'll be in the portal sooner rather than later.
Reserves Giancarlo Rosado and Nick Boyd also entered the portal. The path to Michigan for those guys is murkier. Rosado would be a grad transfer but he's a below-the-rim 6'8" post who was a low usage player; it's not clear he's a fit in the Big Ten. Boyd is a 6'3" guard who played about 20 MPG and was an efficient shooter. He should be a grad transfer as well since he enrolled in 2020, and he should have two years left since year one was the COVID year and he did not play in year two due to injury.
The other rotation guys are midway through degrees and are probably not going to get through admissions. And it's likely that some of them will prefer the prospect of starter's minutes to another year behind FAU's core.
Then there's May's recruiting class. I'm particularly interested in Elijah Elliott, who's 6'4" and gets described as "twitchy" and "ultra-athletic." 6'4" + twitchy + ranked #185 means he's got some limitations but I'm willing to roll the dice on a dude who seems like a high major athlete and deploys that athleticism in the service of perimeter defense sizzle reels. Just have him shoot threes for a couple years and you've got Chaundee Brown.
Ty Robinson and Lorenzo Cason, both guards, are so deep down the rankings that there's nothing out there on them. If May believes one or both could work in the Big Ten, though, may as well bring them along. Stu Douglass and Zak Novak were not exactly batting away tons of P5 offers.
[After THE JUMP: portaaaaaal]
RETRIEVE MICHIGAN PORTAL GUYS
Dug McDaniel is likely un-retrievable.
On the other side of things, George Washington III attended May's press conference and told reporters things that made it seem like he was strongly considering a return. He and May will have to sit down and see if there's common ground, but "you are a guard" seems good enough given the state of things.
Tarris Reed is somewhere in between Washington and McDaniel. He just took a visit to Kansas State and is clearly exploring high-major options, but there were some insider rumblings that Reed would consider returning. On the other hand, McDaniel was on the visit to KSU with him. Slight decrement to already limited optimism there.
May as well throw Khani Rooths and Christian Anderson in here, too. Anderson is likely gone since he waited until after Michigan named a new coach to hit the bricks; maybe you could talk to Rooths but the chances either guy returns to the fold are slim.
HIT NON-FAU PORTAL
Names that Michigan has been linked with:
- Connor Essegian, SG, Wisconsin. Essegian made the All-Freshman team in 2022-23 and then disappeared into the Wisconsin bench this season. Insider chatter very positive that if interest is mutual this will get worked out. Shot 47/36/88 as freshman on pretty high usage. Back injury supposedly responsible for major dip in performance.
- Danny Wolf, C, Yale. Skilled inside-outside big was first-team All-Ivy as a sophomore after playing very little as a freshman. Sort of Moe Wagner-ish on tape. Heavy-footed compared to Moe. Performance in Top 100 KP games concerning, but is a legit 7 foot and blew up this year. Michigan supposedly in good shape.
- J'Vonne Hadley, SF, Colorado. Low-usage, high-efficiency wing played 80% of Kenpom #22 Colorado's minutes. Grad transfer. Leaving a good team you started on seems like an NIL play. Hadley is zoomin' with Iowa State and MSU, with a short-term timeframe for a decision.
- Dante Maddox, PG, Toledo. Put Michigan in a top eight. 48/40 from the floor, 86% from the line, solid TO rate. Team had a very low assist rate overall and his was just 15—secondary playmaker-ish—but that might fit May, who had a bunch of guys pick up middling assist rates the past two years. OTOH, he can definitely go to the tournament at teams elsewhere on his list.
- Jason Rivera-Torres, SG, Vandy. Freshman was an inefficient bench player on a bad Vandy team; just outside the top 100 to 247. May has a pre-existing relationship as FAU was on his shortlist as a recruit.
- Cade Tyson, SF, Belmont. 6'7" sniper is a career 45% deep shooter with 86 FT% to match. Has been Not Just A Shooter at the MVC level; these guys usually get more perimeter-oriented after up-transfers. Guys with his profile are in huge demand because everyone can use a Duncan Robinson, so I'd imagine he ends up at a blue blood.
- Rowan Brumbaugh, SG, Georgetown. Former top 100 recruit redshirted at Texas and then left for GTown after that; was not exactly efficient but the outline of a good player is there: top-200 assist rate, 79 FT%, 37% from three. Bad two-point shooting sticks out but in the context of an abominable GTown team might be ok in a less dire context. High school teammate of Wolf. (In the midst of getting Brumbaugh items I discovered that Georgetown has a guy named Supreme Cook. I shake my fist in his general direction.)
Notably, almost all of these guys are 6'4" or taller so I think we can assume that FAU's four guard lineup was out of necessity, not desire.
FWIW, EMU transfer Tyson Acuff went off the board to Rutgers.
ATTEMPTED CARIS
May is hitting up some high school recruits, most notably Indiana decommit Liam McKneely:
“Dusty May said I was his first recruiting call,” McNeeley said. “That was special. Right now, my primary focus is preparing and practicing for the upcoming McDonald’s game and Chipotle Nationals. I am going to hold off any college visits until those basketball events have concluded.”
May swooping in on a five-star who's going to be a burger boy is exceptionally unlikely, but FWIW. A more likely occurrence is that May narrowly missed on some guys who went to bigger conferences and is now in the Big Ten. If some of those guys get caught up in coaching transitions, May could revisit. No names here.
BEST CURRENT GUESS
PG: Johnell Davis (FAU), Durral Brooks
SG: Alijah Martin (FAU), Connor Essegian (Wisc), George Washington III
SF: Nimari Burnett, Jace Howard
PF: Will Tschetter, Terrance Williams
C: Vlad Goldin (FAU), Danny Wolf (Yale)
Realistically Martin is likely to be the main ball-handler when Davis is out and that SF spot is going to be some Burnett and then a lot of guards, so all four of Davis, Martin, Essegian, and Washington would have significant roles.
That's 11, with two open spots for flier recruits. It is also unlikely to be correct.
At least May won't have to say he doesn't have his own guys. From Day 1, the guy has a clean slate.
This may be a bad thing for him in that he has no real excuse for a shitty 1st year (if that happens).
First couple of years are already a wash. No excuses needed...
I agree that the first couple years are a wash in that he's not going to get fired in those years. But those years are not a wash with regards to understanding what we have if he brings in the core of FAU that got him to a FF.
For example, if he brings in the core of the FAU FF team, but can barely crack .500 in the big ten, even in year one, we are in trouble.
Are we? Core as in 7 players or do you consider 3 players a core? Im not sure you are seeing his track record if you think this is a two year build. He will need his first two recruiting classes to reach junior status to see how he develops players here. I may even be ok if he is more recruit/fresh/soph heavy his first two years instead of 5+ players with one year left going into next season. Beilein had some brutal seasons early at U of M we have to give this guy some leeway.
this is beyond ridiculous
People say this but if May has 2 years like Juwan's last 2, he's going to be under a lot of pressure, including from the mgoboard.
Agreed. Beilein took our dumpster fire of a program to the tourney in year 2. That should be the minimum. Despite Howard's and Amaker's attempts to demonstrate otherwise, making the tournament is not *that* hard!
Now do year 3
Anybody accidentally kills anybody in a fight, they go to jail. It's called manslaughter.
Not following. He should be able to put together a competent roster in today’s college basketball with the portal and new coach buzz.
I mean, even if you have a bunch of your guys from FAU, replacing an entire team is hard. Those Florida kids could have seasonal affective disorder in the North, or who knows what. I'm not looking to make excuses, but replacing pretty much everybody is inherently risky.
I suppose it depends on expectations.
Bring in a core of guys that made the NCAA and lost to NW and finish in the middle of the Big Ten and make the NCAA and that would be pretty good. Big Ten top to bottom will certainly be more of a challenge.
Having guys that know your program to help accelerate the learning would be a win.
Remember, the core of those guys got FAU to the FF. If he brings in those core of guys, I'm expecting Michigan to finish in the upper 3rd of the Big10, and being at least a bubble team.
Yea kinda.
I was kinda prepped for a bad season next year, but if BM can bring in the core of his FF team, my expectations will rise.
Think about it, if he brings in his FF core, but can't do much in the big ten, then his FF was in fact a big fluke.
The NCAA tourney is a crapshoot. It wasn't like FAU went to the FF as a 1 or 2 seed. FAU was a 9 seed and beat the 8 seed, 16th seed, 4th seed and 3rd seed. The 4 seed was Tennessee whose coach, Rick Barnes, is almost the poster child for ncaa disappointments.
Co-signed on Rick Barnes, who hilariously didn’t even make the Sweet 16 the year he had Kevin Fucking Durant.
So you're arguing that FAU wasn't as good the last two years, then, by arguing that Barnes fails. That's pretty silly. Not only did FAU go to the Final Four, but they were then ranked in the Top 25 most of this past year. Was that wrong? Or did we get a not good coach who will bring in not good players who just got lucky in the tourney?
I don't see any logic in "Dusty May got lucky because he faced Barnes, therefore he was good enough to be hired at M, but don't expect him to win with his guys he's won with the past few years."
If May's brining in his guys he has won with, his starters, and has other good portal players come in, he should be able to have a core that makes the tourney, bare minimum. It's weird to praise a guy as being very good, praise the portal targets as very good, but then try to lower expectations because "winning is hard." May, himself, said he expects the team to be a winning program in year 1. If the coach says it, but does not live up to it...it is a 100% guarantee that plenty of idiots on here will get out their pitchforks and torches and screaming at Warde for failing to hire the right guy. Anyone who has been at this blog over a decade knows that.
I’d still need to see how the roster shakes out. Depth could be a pretty major issue and I’m not gonna put a top 6 finish in the conference on a team with no depth and a couple decent-good players.
These are not just decent-good players, but those that led a team to a FF.
Depth will be an issue no doubt.
They had to play like 3 real games all season that year. They also led the same exact team to a first round exit the next season. A Cinderella run in March Madness is a helluva lot different than being one of the top teams in a major conference for a whole season.
Why are we pretending like that automatically makes them a top 6 team in the B1G? Depth is much more important than couple guys from a mid-major that had a Cinderella run a couple years ago. They’re decent-good players that are going to need some help from a supporting cast if you’re talking about a top 6 conference finish.
I agree! The FAU FF run was more Cinderella/luck than something more substantial.
Now you’re just contradicting yourself.
I see what you are saying.
I guess my point is that after last week's Alex post about Dusty May, I was less than impressed by the hire. I felt his FF run was kinda lucky, and that we are putting way too much into that FF run. I got negged fairly hard. So I played along.
If people are really high on bringing over several of FAU's core FF team, then people should expect more than just having a shitty first year.
Full disclosure: While DM has my full support, I don't think he'll last long at Michigan. I'm just not seeing it.
I have yet to see you offer any reason why you think May will do poorly at UM, other than that you think the FF run was a fluke.
Well, just like 99% of people on this board, I'm no expert. I thought Juwan Howard was going to be an absolute star. Oops! With that, I learned my lesson in that we should be targeting coaches with more HC experience. DM has very little, and those are at a small no-name school. As mentioned, I think his FF run was kinda of fluke, of which this fanbase puts way too much stock into. If people are so high on bringing in FAU transfers who were the core part of a FF run, then those people should expect more than a shitty season.
Overall, DM has yet to show that he has skills that are transferable to the big stage. That's not to say he won't be successful here. I think he's a huge risk hire.
People are high on bringing in the FAU players because they grade out as decent-good players that are familiar with May and his system… and we’re currently looking at entering next season with 5 scholarship players. It really has nothing to do with the Final Four run. Pretty sure everyone recognizes that anytime a mid-major makes a deep tourney run, luck plays a factor.
We need bodies. Bodies that are experienced in what May wants to do both from a schematic and culture standpoint is a major plus. The fact that they project as playable at the B1G level is a huge bonus too.
Nobody is expecting that to turn us into a B1G contender. Nobody is expecting this to be an overnight fix either. But they ARE quality players that can help us achieve a nice season if the right pieces are put around them.
you seem to be trying to catch everyone in a logic trap here. I don't recall you ever being so negative on anything before, maybe I'm just not remembering (I'm here everyday, though).
Who did you think was the slam dunk hire that UM passed up?
The guy at the really high end program with a 10 year plus track record aint leaving that program he built to go sideways at best. Pick em but they are all crap shoots. CSU/FAU/ etc etc.
DM has 6 years of HC experience at a school which he elevated from nothing to respectability and then to the NCAA tourney the last two years. That is a good amount of HC experience not "very little." And it's no longer just a "small no-name school" after his accomplishments there. Moreover, he did it the right way by coaching fundamentals and building a team without a bunch of one and done 5 stars. Yes, it's not clear whether he can continue that success at Michigan without an ultra long track record at a very top school. But a coach with that type of record is rare and wasn't available. In DM's case, he's still young with a much higher upside than downside.
I would be curious once the smoke clears to see the production on the FF team and last year in relation to who we end up getting.
Top 3rd would be great. It would think top 3rd in the Big gets you an invite.
Keep in mind, we are up to 18 teams next year, so top 3rd would not necessarily get us in.
6th or better? That would likely include some good wins.
I would be surprised if a clear cut top 6 from the Big Ten don’t all get in.
If by core you mean 3 FAU players and Twill and cheddar cumong man. He will need some instant impact scorers right away. He isnt getting FAU's entire roster to work with.
Tbf, I'd rather have someone else's guys than no guys. You can't build a functional roster overnight, and there will still be growing pains until May's been recruiting for a few years.
All it takes is a top recruit to come into fold and the ball will roll quickly.
Pitino replaced all but two players from St. John's roster and won over. 20 games in year 1. Hubie brought in 5 portal guys, lost 7, and UNC went from NIT turn down to, checks notes, a #1 seed in the tournament in a year.
To be clear, Michigan's roster is more depleted than those. However, the team can be competitive.
To be even clearer, I'm not suggesting a deep tourney run or high seed would be remotely in consideration in Year 1. However, your premise ignores the transfer portal and its impact on being able to quickly build a competitive roster.
Throwing in the towel at a "functional" roster is ludicrous.
Grad transfers are others' guys (not so much FAU of course, but in general). They're either immediately useful or hopefully round into shape by March, and those are the only two optimistic outcomes. And the reality is, we'll need transfers just to field a team.
May said he's going to try to put together a winning roster immediately, because why not, but his stated preference is to develop. I'm mostly fine with it; I think there are other benefits to surrounding freshmen with upperclassmen, even if the latter developed elsewhere.
Subtract out Jace and T-Will and I can live with that rotation.
You are going to have to add in players to make it a "rotation".
Yeah based on the alleged Jace to Sanderson interaction I have no idea why that guy is still on this roster other than currently we fucking have almost no scholarship players.
so if he held a practice today, would it just be him and Cheddar? Crazy!
On the bright side, you could really save on subs!
Is Jace Howard really going to be a part of this team? From his dad being the former coach, to the sense of entitlement it takes to get into it with a member of the strength staff, to that fact that he isnt a high major level player, I would have to imagine him transferring is in the best interest for everybody involved.
I could see a guy like that wanting to prove he's not just there because the coach slept with his mom. If he really is that entitled, it won't go well no matter where he is. I could also Juwan advising him to stay, because it seems Juwan really does love and respect Michigan. That being said, if I were in his position I think I might go elsewhere for a fresh start.
wanting to prove he's not just there because the coach slept with his mom
I laughed out loud.
Didn't work IRT Worthy.
Thing is - that IS the only reason he's here.
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