Stings like hell to type this: Ohio St still has reasonable chance of reaching CFP
Makes me sick to my stomach, but OSU still has fair chance of making the CFP...
-The UW/OR game is a play-in game for the #3 CFP seed. OSU will jump whichever team loses this game.
-GA is going to mow down Bama, so OSU moves ahead of Bama.
-If Texas loses, OSU moves ahead of Texas.
-Of all the dominos that must fall for The Great Evil, this is the biggest one: FSU must lose in the ACC champ game.
So, after Bama loses, Texas loses and FSU loses, does the CFP put OSU ahead of FSU? OSU certainly would go ahead of Texas, because TX would have 2 losses. Same for Bama. Does the CFP put 11-1 OSU ahead of 12-1 FSU? OSU had a tougher schedule, and it's single loss was certainly a much better loss than FSU could possibly suffer 6 days from now. Also, will the CFP consider that FSU's bad-ass QB is done for the season, when the CFP tries to decide between FSU and OSU for that coveted #4 CFP spot?
If you put a gun to my head, I would guess a 12-1 FSU gets that #4 spot, but I would not be surprised if The Great Evil backs into the CFP again. Always keep in the back of your mind...it's about the $$$. OSU would generate better TV ratings for a semi-final CFP game vs GA than FSU.
#GoBlue
#Bet
November 26th, 2023 at 3:59 PM ^
A convincing loss and I’d just about guarantee OSU jumps them
November 26th, 2023 at 2:30 PM ^
It doesn't seem to sting you by the way. You put in a lot of thoughts into this. You want to will OSU into playoff. Not sure why.
Unfortunately, not going to happen.
November 26th, 2023 at 2:37 PM ^
Putting alot of thought into it means I want it to happen? Talk about a non-causal conclusion.
For example...during WW2 the allies certainly put in infinite amount of time imaging the various ways the nazis could win WW2, so that means Gen.Eisenhower and co. wanted the nazis to win? Dont be ridiculous. Just because you can envision something means you want it to happen? That's clown-show stuff.
I simply placed out a scenario that could allow OSU to make the CFP. It's an unlikely scenario, but to say it's impossible is intellectually dishonest. Michigan Men do not lie to themselves. Michigan Men consider all the possibilities, because Michigan Men are afraid of nothing.
#GoBlue
November 26th, 2023 at 3:00 PM ^
Ha ha. You said they have a reasonable chance in your title. Now you are accusing me of lying to myself? You are paranoid dude or dudette. I stand by my statement. It doesn't seem like you are standing by your own.
November 26th, 2023 at 3:10 PM ^
I proved my point. Just because you can think through something doesnt mean you want it to happen.
So every time you see an attractive woman, you call your lawyer and start divorce proceedings?
What a cave-man take. Unreal.
November 26th, 2023 at 3:52 PM ^
Don't want to fight with you. We all need to be happy about our win. And of course you are. So, +1 from me. If they end up in playoff, we will kick their ass again. So, don't worry about what OSU will do. It is all those other teams that need to worry about it. Not UM. Go Blue!
November 26th, 2023 at 4:12 PM ^
Yes we think bad things through and then we shut our damn mouths! We don't post on mgoblog about them!
November 26th, 2023 at 3:18 PM ^
You could have used any scenario at all to make your point, and chose to compare a football team making the playoffs to the Germany winning WW2?
November 26th, 2023 at 6:34 PM ^
And bingo-ing Godwin's Law too. Classic own-goal. :)
November 26th, 2023 at 2:30 PM ^
If that's what you call a reasonable chance, I would urge you not to put money on it.
November 26th, 2023 at 2:40 PM ^
Define reasonable? I define reasonable as possible..potential...not likely nor unlikely. Reasonable means just that...it can happen, but the probability of what "reasonable" means is up to the reader. You define reasonable.
November 26th, 2023 at 3:24 PM ^
Perhaps English isn't your first language, but "reasonable" has a definite connotation of having a moderate chance of happening. It sounds like your are taking the word literally, i.e., that you can reason a path for the outcome to occur. If something is unlikely, it is not considered reasonable.
November 26th, 2023 at 3:30 PM ^
So ‘reasonable chance’ has the exact same meaning as ‘chance’ by your definition. Maybe just say chance?
November 26th, 2023 at 2:30 PM ^
Why would Ohio State jump a one-loss Washington? Washington would have a better win than OSU (Oregon > PSU), and they would have played a Championship Game, while OSU did not. If Oregon wins OSU is behind both Oregon and Washington in my book.
November 26th, 2023 at 2:51 PM ^
Washington's wins would stack nicely against OSUs top to bottom.
Although OSU has made its losses its high points on its resume (UM 22, Georgia 22, UM 23)
Damn those guys get a lot of run for losses.
November 26th, 2023 at 3:11 PM ^
Yes they would have gone 1-1 vs a playoff team in Oregon (p.s. I think Oregon is better than Washington and will show it next week)
OSU's best win is... Notre Dame or PSU.
Washington would ALSO be undefeated in regular season and have their only loss in a championship game while OSU is sitting home eating pickles doing nothing. Why would you punish a team that was undefeated going into the championship game for PLAYING a game vs benefiting a team doing shit at home. (aside eating pickles)
November 26th, 2023 at 2:30 PM ^
So you concede that the pac champ is in, and the sec champ is in. That’s two spots locked ahead of osu.
There is no way they are in ahead of us, even if we somehow lost to Iowa. 3 spots locked.
The only possible scenario they get in is if Texas and Florida state both lose, and the committee ranks them higher than a possible one loss Washington and possible one loss Georgia.
A faint glimmer of a possibility? Sure. A “fair chance”? Nah.
November 26th, 2023 at 2:42 PM ^
UM is locked into the CFP. When UM defeats IA, UM will have the #2 seed. If UM loses to IA, UM probably gets the #4 seed. UM is mostly definitely locked into the CFP though, because if UM takes a loss, their loss would be one of the best losses in all of the college football season: to The Great Evil.
#GoBlue
November 26th, 2023 at 2:31 PM ^
They need four things to happen:
- FSU to lose
- Bama to lose
- Texas to lose
- Oregon to lose
Any of those don’t happen and I think OSU is in trouble. A close Washington loss, they might stay ahead of OSU because they’d still have a win against Oregon. Washington has wins against Oregon and @ Arizona, plus Utah, Wazzu, USC and @ Oregon St. That is collectively far superior to @ND, PSU and @Rutgers.
Texas would be a conference champ with a win @ Bama. Georgia gets in over OSU if Bama wins.
November 26th, 2023 at 2:44 PM ^
Washington probably stays ahead on a close loss just for the fact they played in their championship game.
November 26th, 2023 at 2:47 PM ^
They need the first 3 for sure (FSU 5.5 favorite, Bama 4.5 dog, Texas 11 pt favorite), good luck w that.
If that bad trifecta were to unfold, and Washington was to lose (7.5 pt dog) , then there would be 3 one-loss, non-champion teams
- OSU 11-1, not playing in CCG
- 12-1 Wash, losing in CCG
- 12-1 FSU, losing in CCG
If the committee were to go by the principle of not punishing a team for playing in a Top 5 CCG while the alternative sits home (seems most fair), then Washington would get the last spot.
If the committee were to go with a mixture of TV ratings, numerical rankings (e.g. SP+, Massey, Sagarin), and the eye test, then OSU would get the last spot.
Unfortunately, I would guess that TV ratings would win out.
Fortunately, the prerequisite bad trifecta is not very likely, maybe 5% or so.
November 26th, 2023 at 5:41 PM ^
Since when has anything been “fair?” $$$ will win out as you say.
November 26th, 2023 at 2:32 PM ^
Don’t see how even a one loss Power Five Conference champion gets jumped by Ohio for a playoff spot.
November 26th, 2023 at 2:33 PM ^
#1 You are a pitiful concern troll.
#2 Define "reasonable"
#3 So what? Imagine a fully healthy JJ and rested team and our new OL with time to gel. OSU would lose by at least 2 TDs.
November 26th, 2023 at 2:33 PM ^
Ohio shouldn't jump anyone playing in a conference championship game. There should be NO reward for sitting at home that weekend.
That said, we beat 7-5 Maryland by seven last week and dropped in both non-CFP polls.
Washington beat 5-7 Washington State on a last-second field goal this week and moved up in both polls this week.
Because??
November 26th, 2023 at 3:09 PM ^
Well for one thing a team ahead of them lost, so
November 26th, 2023 at 2:34 PM ^
It’s a long shot although it is certainly possible, but they’d be a 4 seed against Georgia again and I wouldn’t see them giving UGA as much trouble as they did last year.
As far as Michigan rooting interests, a scenario I wouldn’t mind seeing that isn’t all that wild is Georgia and FSU staying undefeated and Oregon winning the PAC 12. That would likely give Michigan Florida State in the semi which would be a pretty favorable matchup.
November 26th, 2023 at 2:45 PM ^
Agreed. This is the exact scenario UM is hoping for next weekend.
UM would be a TD+ favorite over FSU. FSU hasnt faced a D like Michigan all year.
#GoBlue
November 26th, 2023 at 3:16 PM ^
Rooting for FSU so hard. Oregon scares me. Best case would be Washington v Georgia and Michigan v FSU (2 v 3). But ok with Oregon v Georgia and Michigan v FSU.
ROOT FOR FSU - we will win the trenches easy vs them and just need to worry about those WRs with a backup QB!
November 26th, 2023 at 2:47 PM ^
I love this idea but I keep reading that Oregon would jump an undefeated FSU so they can have a West Coast team at the Rose Bowl.
November 26th, 2023 at 3:13 PM ^
Agreed
- Keeping a relatively weak-but-undefeated FSU out of the CFP is off the table (We're all clamoring to play them)
- Monkeying with their seeding isn't
November 26th, 2023 at 2:53 PM ^
Very very hard to see that, honestly. FSU is not getting a bump this week or next whereas Oregon winning will put them at 3. Would much rather see Washington than Oregon though, in my opinion. Oregon is trotting out five 5 stars and Washington doesn't have a single 5 star on the roster.
November 26th, 2023 at 3:07 PM ^
Washington is not beating Oregon
November 26th, 2023 at 3:18 PM ^
Oregon favored by 9 vs a team who beat them a month ago at their place. I watched that game - this Oregon team is for real. Their HC went full Dan Campbell - if he played it somewhat safe Oregon wins by 7+.
November 26th, 2023 at 4:02 PM ^
I don’t know about recruiting stars but Odunze might be the best WR in the 2024 draft after MH2 and Pennix is a Heisman finalist. I agree Oregon is the better overall team but UW has some players.
November 26th, 2023 at 3:08 PM ^
Committee would give Georgia FSU if that happened, no question
November 26th, 2023 at 2:34 PM ^
I can't remember exactly how last year unfolded but it seemed like they needed 10 things to happen and all 10 did.
This year it doesn't even feel like a stretch. UGA beats Bama, FSU loses to Louisville, Texas loses to OU. Could easily happen.
For those of you are saying a close Washington loss puts in two Pac-12 teams ahead of OSU...I hope I don't have to say "told you so" when that doesn't happen.
Go Noles, Hook Em Horns
November 26th, 2023 at 2:43 PM ^
Last year they just needed USC to lose, that was literally it. People thought maybe Clemson could get in if they ran the table but they lost the same day as OSU did last year to SCAR.
And for the record, Texas plays Oklahoma State, not Oklahoma.
November 26th, 2023 at 2:50 PM ^
There was more than just USC losing. Tennessee and Bama were involved. And Clemson losing to South Carolina is part of what happened. Maybe it was just as likely last year as this year, though.
Also, Okie State, oops. Really thought it was OU. Pokes can still beat Texas though.
November 26th, 2023 at 2:48 PM ^
Exactly.
Thinking OSU has no shot of making the CFP is beyond naive. Go through all the scenarios. Run the math. Think about what truly motivates the CFP committee. It's unlikely OSU gets into the CFP, but it's certainly not impossible. Improbable? Yes? Highly improbable? No.
November 26th, 2023 at 3:15 PM ^
It's highly improbable.
November 26th, 2023 at 2:35 PM ^
I don’t give a fuuuuucccckkkkk
November 26th, 2023 at 2:37 PM ^
They've backed in enough times already. What is Gene going to go talk to the Big Ten?
November 26th, 2023 at 2:37 PM ^
I can’t see the committee going two years in a row with 2/4 playoffs teams from the B1G.
November 26th, 2023 at 2:37 PM ^
Not seeing it. Committee is random and mostly favors teams that will draw the most eyeballs (OSU's one advantage) but:
- Michigan is above them even with a loss to Iowa
- Georgia is above them even with a loss to Bama
- Washington is above them even with a loss to Oregon
- Oregon will be above them with a win
- Bama will be above them with a win
- FSU will be above them with a win
- Texas will be above them with a win
Only scenario I see is Oregon losing, Bama losing, Texas losing, and FSU losing. Odds of that are, what, 5%? If Washington, FSU, and Bama would have lost last night, things might have been very interesting, but they didn't get that.
November 26th, 2023 at 2:39 PM ^
It depends on your definition of "reasonable".
I looked for updated odds for OSU to make the playoffs but I couldn't find any easily.
That said, there's another way to put it in betting terms based on making a parlay bet with the following events "to win"
Georgia over Alabama
Louisville over FSU
Ok State over Texas
I think that you would get very (very) good odds for that, and that's even before betting OSU would get in over a 1 loss UW team if Oregon won a close Pac 12 title game
Not saying that it's impossible by any means but I think it's much less likely than the odds were last year at this point.
November 26th, 2023 at 3:23 PM ^
20-1 given the point spreads, and taking a touchdown favorite as 2/3rds likely to win, 11 points as 80%. (And interpolating and rounding).
November 26th, 2023 at 3:56 PM ^
Thanks! That’s one heck of an emotional hedge bet.
November 26th, 2023 at 2:40 PM ^
If they got in it’d just be an opportunity to beat Ryan Day’s ass twice in the same season…in front of an even larger national audience…with Harbaugh there to remind him of his rightful place in college football. Would be absolutely glorious.