CFP initial rankings predictions
It's predictions time, baby!
The College Football Playoff committee's first rankings for the final (hallelujah) four-team playoff come out Tuesday night.
Who ya got?
Your author's humble prediction:
- Ohio State
- Georgia
- Florida State
- Washington
First two out:
5. Michigan
6. Oregon
Extra credit to rank further, including Texas, Oklahoma, Penn State, Alabama, Ole Miss, Missouri, LSU, Notre Dame, etc.
Fame and glory await you! Let's go!
October 30th, 2023 at 11:36 AM ^
Nah, man. We'll be in the top 4
October 30th, 2023 at 11:46 AM ^
The committee has traditionally been cool leaving teams out that they know will be playing teams who are in.
So it wouldn't surprise me if we're out, with their justification being "they have a path forward by beating OSU". It helps them cover their asses.
October 30th, 2023 at 12:03 PM ^
I think a no loss Big 10 east team will get in as will a one loss Big 10 east team. Like last year.
October 30th, 2023 at 12:40 PM ^
I'm not sure if Michigan gets in with one loss (if it's to OSU). Their schedule has been that bad. In that scenario, they'd have one ranked win (over PSU) for the whole season. They wouldn't be Conference Champs, either.
In OSU's case last year, they had good wins over PSU and Notre Dame to help their case (and it was still a reasonably close call for them to get the last spot). Sign-gate may also be a looming issue this year. It might help the committee to have an excuse to leave Michigan out. Michigan probably needs to win out (or somehow win the Conference Championship if there's a 3-way tie in the East).
October 30th, 2023 at 1:27 PM ^
Last year, OSU also had a 22 point loss at home - in game, IIRC, they were favored in - and, that the only weather factors may have been - it was too bright and too warm.
October 30th, 2023 at 3:16 PM ^
This, plus no way OSU gets in last year if USC takes care of business in the Pac-12 CCG.
Further, if Georgia, FSU, and Washington all win out, no one loss team is getting in, regardless of who that is or who they lost to.
October 30th, 2023 at 1:56 PM ^
Penn State is out barring an absolute shit show finish. OSU/UM are on the mulligan line (with Georgia) until someone proves otherwise.
FSU is the problem right now. Nebraska might be the second best team if they were in the ACC and Im not kidding. The ACC is absolute garbage and FSU looks like they get a free pass. I feel 100% on Georgia's mulligan status. Washington has a murderers row in front of them. Oklahoma could beat Texas back to back and maybe not make the playoffs?
October 30th, 2023 at 12:34 PM ^
The age-old debate is whether the committee is to select the four BEST teams or the four teams with the best RESUME. In this first rankings the committee is going to be forced to show their hand.
If they value the four best teams (i.e., eye test), they'll have Georgia & Michigan as the top 2. But if they value the best resumes, people will be a bit surprised to see:
- Georgia as low as ~4-5
- OSU in the top two, perhaps #1
How the committee treats both Georgia & OSU will show us whether they more value the eye-test or the resume.
As for OSU potentially being #1...I don't want it. I do not want it. I DON'T want it. I. do. not. want. it.
I do not want it. I do not WANT it. I do not want it! Don't want it.
I DO NOT want it. I DO NOT WANT IT. Don't want it! I. DO. NOT. WANT. IT.
...don't want it.
October 30th, 2023 at 1:02 PM ^
If anything, I would think they would have chose the "best resume thus far" especially for the first couple of votes. They would not want to send the message that weak scheduling is the way to go, especially when there are more games to give the "eye test" and high-profile games to sort it all out for them.
October 30th, 2023 at 1:55 PM ^
It is definitely resume vs. eye test.
Resume so far:
- OSU (ND and PSU)
- FSU (LSU, Duke and Clemson though Clemson has faded and Louisville's blow out of Duke diminishes that win.)
- Washington (Oregon win is big. Lousy wins over ASU and Stanford hurt)
- Georgia (Kentucky is a quality win. Florida and Auburn wins help despite them being down.)
- Michigan (We haven't played anyone decent yet.)
- After Next week:
- OSU, Washington (Beats USC), GA (beats Missour), FSU (beats Pitt), Michigan (beats Purdue)
EOY Resume:
- Georgia (beats Ole Miss, TN and wins SEC)
- Michigan (beats PSU, OSU and wins the B1G)
- Washington (beats Utah, Oregon State, Washington State and wins the Pac-12)
- FSU (beats Florida, Miami and wins the ACC. Meh.)
- OSU (Loss to Michigan puts them out. If Michigan were to lose to OSU we would be out.)
Eye Test:
- Michigan
- Georgia
- FSU/OSU/Washington--They've all had underwhelming games.
If FSU loses I could see Texas or maybe Alabama getting in.
If Washington loses I could see the same thing. You can't put Oregon in over them and who from the PAC is left to complain?
Thinking about strength of schedule I was thinking Washington had a pretty tough schedule including MSU and then I remembered that MSU sucks. I then wondered allowed if we even had MSU on our schedule this year because they aren't in our remaining games. LOL Where's the threat?
October 30th, 2023 at 1:59 PM ^
Duke/Miami/UNC are just god awful.
Maryland/Rutgers/Nebraska/Minnesota are quality wins if those three are.
October 30th, 2023 at 5:05 PM ^
Gives you an OK chance to lose to Michigan and still make the playoffs though, assuming enough chaos.
October 30th, 2023 at 12:48 PM ^
yea, i think in the initial ranking you may be right. I could also see the committee moving M into the top 4 and dropping FSU to 5 if/when M gets a W in Happy Valley. At that point M's best win would be a 'better quality win' than FSU's best win.
October 30th, 2023 at 11:47 AM ^
To be clear: I have Michigan as #1, no question. Georgia #2. Suckeyes #3. UDub as a placeholder at #4.
But the CFP committee has done this $4!+ before--ranking teams, and specifically Michigan, lower based on "strength of schedule" (while leaving the SEC representative ranked higher), and then justifying it by saying "it'll sort itself out in The Game."
Not approving the behavior; just predicting it.
October 30th, 2023 at 11:53 AM ^
I honestly am not even that bothered by it - at this point in the season, it's fair to look at who everyone has played. If we take care of business our resume will be great too.
October 30th, 2023 at 1:36 PM ^
Michigan's only way in is beat both PSU and OSU and win the B1G. I doubt if Harbaugh or the team has any other intention.
October 30th, 2023 at 1:41 PM ^
We might get in as a 1-loss Big Ten Champion, depending on if other conferences knock each other off. But I wouldn't want to assume it.
We are in the playoffs now. Win and advance.
October 30th, 2023 at 11:36 AM ^
Beat Purdue.
October 30th, 2023 at 12:15 PM ^
Go scorched earth from here on out.
Maybe let the 1st stringers play the whole third quarter.
October 30th, 2023 at 11:37 AM ^
I tend to agree that the committee is looking for any reason to keep UM out of the top 4, whether it is schedule ( that they can say) or now the sign shit, which they can't.
October 30th, 2023 at 11:42 AM ^
Then they'd have to do the same for Georgia.
UM FBS opponents combined record: 31-33
UGA FBS opponents combined record: 22-35
Georgia's Non-con schedule is worse than Michigan's, they played UAB, Ball St, Tenn-Martin. Wowza that's bad, weird how we don't hear about that every five minutes.
UM - SOS according to Sagarin: 68
UGA - SOS According to Sagarin: 81
October 30th, 2023 at 11:58 AM ^
You nailed it. If they keep Georgia and not UM, then it is not fair.
October 30th, 2023 at 1:57 PM ^
It'd actually be sort of great if we were #5 and OSU was #1 in the first rankings. We could play the disrespekt card and would thump PSU, MD, and OSU even worse.
October 30th, 2023 at 12:04 PM ^
To be fair, I have heard a lot of the talking heads spouting off on UGA's strength of schedule as well. But they are almost unanimously provided the benefit of the doubt based on being the two time national champs. I don't like the second sentence at all. Rank the four best teams THIS SEASON. This is a new season and fresh slate. And that said, I still do think UGA should be ranked #1. They have come up big on their two toughest games to date -- Kentucky and Florida. You can argue that both teams are overrated but UGA handled them in much the same way that Michigan has handled its toughest opponents thus far. And the game against Florida was without their best player. So yeah, UGA should be #1. Michigan #2.
October 30th, 2023 at 12:57 PM ^
Didn't Georgia have some close calls, despite their crappy schedule?
October 30th, 2023 at 12:59 PM ^
Didn't Georgia have some close calls, despite their crappy schedule? And I don't think we would need a last second play to beat ND.
Bust just keep burying teams and nothing else will matter.
October 30th, 2023 at 3:49 PM ^
I don't disagree with you. But those two higher profile wins against UK and UF were very impressive.
October 30th, 2023 at 1:22 PM ^
I think there needs to be more context though beyond just the overall SOS number. Any of the top 5 teams should have no issues beating a team 70 or below. Sure its going to be much easier to beat a bad G5 school than it would be to beat Michigan State but all the top 5 are going to win those games.
What I'm looking at is have they tested themselves against top competition? Using SP+ here are the top 3 opponents of all 5 of the undefeated teams:
OSU: 9, 10, 27
FSU: 12, 21, 29
Wash: 6, 32, 55
UGA: 25, 35, 43
UM: 49, 50, 51
If you put those 15 opponents in order, Michigan's opponents would be 12th, 13th and 14th in that list
I'm mostly playing devil's advocate...I think the rankings should be a mix of how dominant a team is and the metrics that go along with it, and your resume. Michigan is number 1 in terms of dominance, number 5 in terms of resume. I think they should be 2 or 3 in the CFP rankings. But my guess is the committee will have them 5th.
October 30th, 2023 at 2:05 PM ^
You dont hear about it on this board because the MGOBORG arent pissed that the home schedule sucks for Georgia. We must let everyone know through posts and podcasts how upset we are we arent playing teams like Vanderbilt and Gtech in the OOC.
Our top 5 opponents are 26-14 with 3 of them being Big Ten teams that are bowl eligible or above .500. Beating them all by 40 pts game in and game out. Crazy. Not bad for a number 5 team.
October 30th, 2023 at 11:37 AM ^
Not that it matters rn, but Michigan is clearly a top 2 team. Whoever says otherwise is just being a little bitch ie Ryan day and janklin
October 30th, 2023 at 11:38 AM ^
If your ranking is accurate then the CFP committee don't know ball.
1. Georgia
2. Michigan
3. UW
4. FSU
IMO - Georgia and UM should be flipped, but SEC bias will prevail.
October 30th, 2023 at 11:50 AM ^
UW can’t be ahead of FSU. They’ve looked middling at best since beating Oregon.
1. UGA
2. UM
3. OSU
4. FSU
5. UW
6. Oregon
7. Alabama
8. Oklahoma
9. Texas
10. PSU
Feel free to mix 7-10 any way you want, but the top 6 feels pretty solid.
October 30th, 2023 at 12:09 PM ^
How is FSU more deserving than UW?
FSU's big wins are overrated teams like LSU and Clemson and they struggled mightily with Boston College.
October 30th, 2023 at 12:34 PM ^
I don't know if FSU is "bettter" than UW, but FSU has played a tougher schedule and has wins over LSU, Clemson, and Duke. UW has the best overall win (Oregon) but were outplayed in the game, and had two "Boston College-like" episodes against ASU and Stanford; were it not for some questionable calls late in the ASU game and an easy, dropped catch on a 4th-and-two by Stanford, UW could have lost both of those games. Their second-best win is a one-touchdown victory over Arizona.
October 30th, 2023 at 12:52 PM ^
Dude I'm not a Washington believer and I'm with you if you think they're not a top 4 team, but Clemson and Duke most definitely do not make a team's schedule "tough" this year. Washington would destroy those two teams even with their close games vs Stanford and ASU.
October 30th, 2023 at 5:11 PM ^
But I didn't say "tough"--I said "tougher" than Washington, as in I've not seen a strength of schedule metric that puts UW above FSU based on SOS.
I think UW is capable of destroying those teams, but how can that be a given when the Huskies have had games come down the wire against multiple, below average P5 teams? Here are teams that are currently ranked above Stanford on Sagarin: Rice, Idaho, S. Illinois, N. Illinois, Ohio U., FAU. UW generally looks amazing when Penix takes care of the ball, but then against 1-5 ASU, they didn't score a single offensive touchdown.
I'm not stumping for FSU--I think both UW and FSU are in a class below UGA and UM--I'm just claiming that putting them above UW is defensible.
October 30th, 2023 at 1:04 PM ^
What? We are giving credit for winning against 4-4 Clemson? I don't think that holds up anymore after Clemson was outplayed by NC State. And Duke was outplaying FSU for 3 quarters until the QB got hurt. And that LSU victory doesn't look that great now either. At least UW beat a legit top-10 team.
October 30th, 2023 at 5:26 PM ^
I already admitted that UW has the best win. Everyone knows Clemson is 4-4. I just happen to think that 4-4 Clemson is still a decent team and better than any team that UW has beaten outside of Oregon. UW should get credit for beating Oregon, but Oregon outplayed them on the road and should have won by multiple scores. I couldn't care less whether UW or FSU gets ranked higher, but I don't know why it's obvious that UW is more deserving. They are currently ranked 15th (!) on Sagarin.
October 30th, 2023 at 2:09 PM ^
FSU, Oregon, Washington all have terrible blemishes on their schedule. FSU can sleep walk through their shit show schedule though. At seasons end UMs schedule will make FSUs schedule look like a walk in the park.
October 30th, 2023 at 11:51 AM ^
Eh, last year for the initial rankings they had Tennessee #1 and Ohio State #2 over Georgia (#3) and Michigan (#5).
I don't think it would be too shocking to see OSU #1 tomorrow night with the argument that their wins over Notre Dame and Penn State bounce them up there.
October 30th, 2023 at 12:23 PM ^
If that's the standard, then UW's one win against Oregon looks far better than OSU's two wins against ND & PSU.
The ranking should be:
#1 Georgia being the back-to-back defending champion who is undefeated.
#2 Michigan as a back-to-back CFP participant & conference winner who is undefeated.
#3 UW as an undefeated with the best overall win with no carry over benefit from last year.
#4 OSU as an undefeated with better wins than FSU. Maybe they make it to #3 due to the carry over benefit from last year.
#5 FSU undefeated, no great wins, no carry over benefit
#6 Oregon best one loss team
#7 - 9 Texas/Alabama/Oklahoma are all in a mix with no clear pecking order due to head-to-head ambiguity
#10 - 11 PSU & Ole Miss
This gives FSU a clear path if they keep winning because Michigan & OSU still play each other. It also gives the committee flexibility to not drop the Michigan vs, OSU loser below FSU if the committee feels the one loss team is better than undefeated FSU.
October 30th, 2023 at 12:44 PM ^
One things is for certain the committee will NEVER leave a P5 undefeated champion out the playoff. Hasn’t happened yet, doubt it ever will.
October 30th, 2023 at 2:12 PM ^
That is why a shit schedule can be a huge help for a program making the playoffs.
Look at Washington's remaining schedule and FSU's. Those FSU fans may be bored to tears (sound familiar) but its going to work out well for them.
October 30th, 2023 at 1:32 PM ^
SEC Bias? This is a phrase / term that I'm not familiar with.
Is it when every body, or committee (including the NCAA and CFP Selection Committee), "bows their knee" to the almighty conference that lives entirely for college football - and, will capitulate to their every desire?
October 30th, 2023 at 11:39 AM ^
I can't imagine a world where UM isn't ranked in the top 4 but I guess you gotta reward OSU, FSU, and Washington for barely beating some mediocre teams because they won a game against a ranked team at some point.
October 30th, 2023 at 11:40 AM ^
Georgia until not Georgia for one.
October 30th, 2023 at 11:41 AM ^
It doesn't matter where they have us, it will all be sorted out in 3 weeks.
October 30th, 2023 at 11:41 AM ^
The ranking doesn't really matter, all we need is to win it all.