CFP pecking order scenarios
How's this for a CFP pecking order for end-of-season scenarios?
...which top 10-12 scenarios should be moved up or down?
(in case imbedded image doesn't display...which I'm expecting...because of course):
- an undefeated Washington
- an undefeated B1G champ
- an undefeated Georgia
- a one-loss PAC12 champ
- an undefeated Oklahoma
- an undefeated ACC champ
- a one-loss B1G champ (from the East)
- a one-loss SEC champ
- a one-loss Big XII champ
- a one-loss B1G non-champ
- a one-loss PAC12 non-champ
- a one-loss SEC non-champ
- a one-loss ACC champ
- a two-loss PAC12 champ
- I've probably already gone further than will be required
October 15th, 2023 at 3:21 PM ^
To me, an undefeated Washington should be moved down to 3.
And a one loss PAC12 champ should somewhere in the 7-9 range.
October 15th, 2023 at 4:33 PM ^
If Washington goes undefeated, they will have beaten Oregon, USC, Utah, Oregon St, Washington St & one of them twice (or also UCLA).
That is BY FAR a better collection of quality wins than ANYBODY else, including Georgia or the B1G champ, could possibly get.
October 15th, 2023 at 4:40 PM ^
What proof is there of that? USC just got depantsed by ND. Decent chance the PAC12 is smoke and mirrors.
October 15th, 2023 at 4:51 PM ^
Please do share your crystal ball which can tell you how many wins and losses each of Utah, USC, Oregon St, Oregon, and WSU will have that would make any of those possible wins "quality" by the end of the season. The Pac-12 could easily consume itself.
October 15th, 2023 at 5:37 PM ^
Like it or not, the PAC-12 is getting the old SEC treatment this year, where all of the 2-3 loss teams will be ranked. They're getting a lot of runway from Colorado's wins over Nebraska and TCU, WSU's win over Wisconsin, and Utah's wins over Florida and Baylor. And probably everyone rooting for Oregon St and WSU this season, given the circumstances.
October 16th, 2023 at 12:57 PM ^
The only reason to move Washington down is if you think previous years should matter
October 15th, 2023 at 3:22 PM ^
Beat MSU.
October 15th, 2023 at 3:31 PM ^
I’m out this weekend with a strained pectoral. I knew I shouldn’t have gone for that fork.
October 15th, 2023 at 3:45 PM ^
Vegas hears this and the betting line will swing wildly.
October 15th, 2023 at 5:01 PM ^
I do expect the UM/MSU line to swing quite a bit. Overall though, I expect it to swing towards MSU.
That line is gonna be UM -21 or UM -20 at game-time.
#GoBlue
October 15th, 2023 at 3:49 PM ^
Two questions
1) was it in the road?
2) how many times have you been warned not to play there?!
October 15th, 2023 at 5:36 PM ^
No, it was for a casserole. I either had to fully commit and stand up or go just out of my reach and snag it. I didn’t make up my mind in time and it was this weird lunge. Painful stuff.
October 15th, 2023 at 6:42 PM ^
No one to blame but yourself. Bad heating pad level, it’s always a cause.
October 15th, 2023 at 3:25 PM ^
I think an undefeated Georgia stays at #1. At any point in their rankings last season, did the committe have Georgia below the top spot?
October 15th, 2023 at 3:31 PM ^
Maybe for a week after the Missouri game, but otherwise I doubt it.
October 15th, 2023 at 5:14 PM ^
Was that game before or after the committee being releasing a poll?
October 15th, 2023 at 4:38 PM ^
You forgot a 3-loss Alabama that would be a Vegas favorite over someone.
October 15th, 2023 at 4:44 PM ^
A one loss Ohio state should not be overlooked. That win over notre dame is a huge boost
October 15th, 2023 at 4:57 PM ^
Is it though? ND could easily lose to Clemson. And Pitt took Louisville apart yesterday, so ND could get upset there, too. To top it off USC is likely to lose a few more games as well, tarnishing the current perception that they just beat the breaks of a good team instead of a deeply flawed 8-4 team.
October 15th, 2023 at 5:15 PM ^
Notre Tame got their asses kicked
by a team that just got their asses kicked
by a team that was fighting for last place in easily the weakest P5 conf.
October 15th, 2023 at 6:37 PM ^
Because they got trounced by Louisville who shit the bed this week?
October 15th, 2023 at 4:59 PM ^
Georgia
Michigan
Washington
Oklahoma
October 15th, 2023 at 4:59 PM ^
Washington goes undefeated, with that resume including the PAC-12 champ game, Washington is in.
Winner of B1G east, as long as they win the B1G champ game, which they will, is obviously in.
I dont think UNC has the D to defeat FSU in the ACC champ game. FSU goes undefeated, FSU is in.
SEC champ game: the team that wins that game, if that team has 1 loss or is undefeated, goes to the CFP.
Even if Oklahoma finishes the season undefeated, I dont see how you can justify them getting a CFP slot, IF AND ONLY IF what I wrote above actually happens.
#GoBlue
October 15th, 2023 at 6:03 PM ^
What if a one-loss Bama beats Georgia in the SEC champ game and all the above (undefeated Washington / B1G Champ / undefeated FSU) also play out?
Curious to see how that one would play out. Now I'm just gonna root for that to happen.
October 15th, 2023 at 5:18 PM ^
Most likely, in order, from your list:
3,2,1,5,6,8,7,4,12,10,9,13,15,14,11
October 15th, 2023 at 5:32 PM ^
The polls tell you everything you need to know. Georgia and Michigan will be the lead vs any team of equal losses. Undefeateds are all in unless there are 5 or more. We have joined Georgia and OSU with mulligan status. Bama has lost that status (for now).
One loss pecking order will be:
1. Georgia
2. Michigan (can another school behind us beat a loss win combo of PSU/OSU?)
3. OSU (Can another school behind them beat a loss win combo of PSU/UM?)
4a. Penn St (their position right now will make it a challenge if they beat OSU the polls might give them OSUs current spot. If PSU beats OSU and moved to 5th they would absolutely have to win out.)
4b. Texas (A win combo of Bama/Oklahoma should have them right on the edge) if Oklahoma/Bama both lose again these wins will lose some luster.
5. Washington/Oregon/Oklahoma/Bama - Conference champ out of this group could jump them to the 4th spot.
This is the order I would put them in if they all take a loss.
October 15th, 2023 at 7:32 PM ^
With your Texas 4b, are you assuming Texas beats Oklahoma in the Big 12 title game cause Oklahoma beat Texas last week?
I know everyone bags on ND but that's a good win for OSU's resume. Beating a ranked team on the road will look good to the committee.
October 15th, 2023 at 8:00 PM ^
Texas is only a one loss team if they beat somebody in the championship. If they have one loss at regular seasons end they are in. If Oklahoma isnt there to play them its going to be uphill battle for them.
How are you goin to jump Michigan with these results
UM TEXAS
Losses Top 5 PSU or OSU Multiple loss Oklahoma
Wins Top 5 PSU or OSU Alabama, Big12 championship
Remember these are one loss teams so Oklahoma would either take a last game loss vs Texas or lose to a shit team along the way.
October 15th, 2023 at 6:30 PM ^
After Thee Ohio gets pummeled in AA Nov. 25th and they are NOT part of the playoff and their AD & corching staff, and all their fans are crying and bitching..... collectively as a nation we can say:
"tough"
October 15th, 2023 at 9:29 PM ^
But what OSU wants to know is WHERE’S LOU HOLTZ??
October 15th, 2023 at 7:40 PM ^
Washington's interior d-line is terrible and their secondary can't tackle. They're not a number one team, even undefeated.
October 16th, 2023 at 2:55 PM ^
Once again it’s the resume they’ll put up. Besides, they’ve looked better than Georgia up to this point.