Early line: UM -24 over Sparty
https://x.com/Brett_McMurphy/status/1713620650647011396
That line feels a bit high to me. Considering how wacky UM/MSU games often are, and it's a night game in East Lansing. UM -19 or UM -20 feels correct to me.
October 15th, 2023 at 2:40 PM ^
Halftime spread, amirite?
October 15th, 2023 at 2:40 PM ^
Agreed. MSU plays hard so I expect a fight.
UM needs to come out fast as I could see MSU collapsing once presented with adversity.
October 15th, 2023 at 2:48 PM ^
Best thing that could have happpened yesterday (now that I realize MSU is next week) is Keon Sabb letting up that double WR pass. MSU is gonna throw the kitchen sink (litterally perhaps) at M next week.
October 15th, 2023 at 6:11 PM ^
MSU will do all kinds of trick plays. They'll even try faking a punt or doing an on-side kick, flee flickers, laterals and lots of hurry-up tempo type plays.
Michigan will be ready, adapt then punish.
October 15th, 2023 at 2:41 PM ^
They are terrible and won't be able to consistently move the ball against the UM defense.
I'd expect a 20 point lead at halftime. Only way UM doesn't cover is if they are playing 3rd stringers all 4th quarter and Sparty gets a couple garbage time TD's.
I can't list 1 impact player on their team. I expect UM to be up 28-31 going into the 4th, question is how much Harbaugh lets his foot off the gas.
October 15th, 2023 at 2:46 PM ^
Nathan Carter, Malik Carr, Jaron Glover…decent players. Not a lot of speed.
October 15th, 2023 at 2:56 PM ^
Those players are no better than Kyle Monangai from Rutgers, Jaylin Lucas from IU, Spann-Ford/Daniel Jackson from MN, Billy Kemp from NEB. Their best players are JAGs, and behind them is well… worse than JAGs
October 15th, 2023 at 3:58 PM ^
Our second string players are better than their first string guys. After a few of their players get ejected, all they have left are JAGs and thugs.
October 15th, 2023 at 4:46 PM ^
Or the combination of the two, JUGS. Big, soft JUGS
October 16th, 2023 at 3:01 PM ^
Maliq Carr sucks lol. He the typical "measurables" guy who effin does nothing.
Carter is solid but UM stopped him with a better OL @UConn than MSU has lol
Glover is promising.
Don't forget Keon Coleman.
What?... oh wait.
October 15th, 2023 at 3:53 PM ^
against Rutgers, MSUs WRs had longest receptions in the teens, something like 13,13,11 yds while 4 of Rutgers WRs had longs in the 20s. Shows how limited Houser is at QB and how poor their secondary is defending. A recipe for disaster for MSU if JJ is on his game and the pass rush gets home. Michigan by at least 4 TDs.
October 15th, 2023 at 4:05 PM ^
Houser has a big arm. MSU was clearly trying to protect their young QB by having him throw short/safe passes. I think they will alter that somewhat for this game.
MSU will take more chances because they have if they want a shot.
October 15th, 2023 at 4:19 PM ^
Put pressure on Houser with a pass rush and let's see him sit in the pocket and deliver. He has some quickness with his legs it seems, though, so that's one thing to look out for.
October 15th, 2023 at 4:35 PM ^
Maybe. In order to do that though you have to protect for longer. I think Michigan covers 24.
October 15th, 2023 at 2:47 PM ^
Night game in East Lansing with a team coached by Mark Dantonio???
They will come out fired up, cheap shot us at every opportunity, and you KNOW that there will be trick plays, fake punts, uncalled holding up the wazoo, and Rex Grossman Deep Shots
The over/under on Roughing the Passer penalties is hereby set at 5
October 15th, 2023 at 2:55 PM ^
He isn’t coaching. Why do people keep saying this?
October 15th, 2023 at 3:32 PM ^
Dantonio's current position is associate head coach. I am sure he is extremely involved in the entire football operation at MSU.
October 15th, 2023 at 3:50 PM ^
I wonder why they didn't ask him to be the interim HC until they hire a permanent replacement? To protect his record v Michigan?
Seems like he would have given them the best chance to salvage their season.
October 15th, 2023 at 4:00 PM ^
I am sure that he isn’t. Dude is burnt out and lord knows he doesn’t want to take on this mess of a program.
October 15th, 2023 at 3:53 PM ^
This. He doesn't even have a headset. He's been out of the game too long to coach.
October 15th, 2023 at 5:42 PM ^
My assumption is that he is there to provide stability and (what passes at MSU for) leadership.
October 16th, 2023 at 12:33 PM ^
While you're probably right, I laughed out loud at the idea of "stability" in the MSU football program. The only things they are stable at are having a ton of players transfer out and finding embarrassing new ways to lose games (see Iowa, Rutgers).
October 16th, 2023 at 10:47 AM ^
To be fair, neither did Brady Hoke
October 16th, 2023 at 11:15 AM ^
So your argument is that Damtonio is only a decade out-of-date?
October 15th, 2023 at 2:49 PM ^
I think Sparty is better than the record indicates, but it has been many years (before this century, for sure) since a mediocre MSU team, as measured by year-end record, has beaten a good UM team. I think we have enough data this year to declare UM good and MSU mediocre or worse.
October 15th, 2023 at 5:00 PM ^
Better than their record indicates?
Who have they lost to that they should have beat? I think they are exactly as bad as their record indicates, maybe worse.
October 15th, 2023 at 5:39 PM ^
They’re who we thought they were
October 15th, 2023 at 6:17 PM ^
They're -6 in turnover margin, so they've had some back luck. And they have a pretty good D line, O line and running back. Houser is a decently mobile guy with a big arm. I'm not saying they have any real chance of beating us, but no one should be surprised if this is a contested game in the second half.
October 15th, 2023 at 8:46 PM ^
That -6 isn't just bad luck. They are breaking in a pair of young QBs.
In the Rutger game, Rutger gave MSU the lead by committing 3 turnovers, then MSU had 3 turnovers and gave it back. Maryland forces turnovers just a smidge more than Michigan so that might be a push also. (Maryland forced 5 turnovers.)
October 15th, 2023 at 7:41 PM ^
I think you might be reading too much into his comment, and mine earlier along the same topic. Sparty has had their team basically disintegrate, between transfers and their coach disgracefully leaving a few weeks ago. Most other teams wouldn’t be trying, half the team would now be transferring, and they wouldn’t just be losing games, they be losing games, 60 to nothing. From that standpoint, I think they’re performing far above expectations of total epic disaster.
October 15th, 2023 at 6:28 PM ^
I think Sparty is better than the record indicates, but it has been many years (before this century, for sure) since a mediocre MSU team, as measured by year-end record, has beaten a good UM team. I think we have enough data this year to declare UM good and MSU mediocre or worse.
Totally agree on point one (Sparty is better than the record indicates). They played Iowa even and were up 24-6 at Rutgers and lost to both.
But respectfully disagree on point two (that mediocre MSU teams haven’t beaten good U-M ones). It’s kind of a tautology.
Since we never play State at the end of the year, there’s always a lack of data on how good each team is. But that’s the whole point: We don’t know. If U-M (somehow) loses Saturday, it’s quite conceivable they could wind up 9-3 with no wins over rivals or ranked teams. So you could again say, well, this was another instance of MSU beating a Michigan team that wasn’t actually that good.
The whole thing is a convenient narrative that seems aimed at explaining away the 2017 and 2020 upset losses to MSU.
October 15th, 2023 at 6:59 PM ^
Let's check the record books. First of all, Blue Heron is only referencing this century, so from 2000 on. Secondly, we're only concerned with "good" Michigan teams. We haven't defined what good means. I think if Michigan ever has anything less than 8 wins, people lose their minds and want everybody fired, so I will go with the 8-win teams.
Out of the 23 seasons we've already played this century, there were 7 times we did not even give MSU the opportunity to beat a "good" UM team. (That includes the 2-4 2020 season.)
Of the remaining 16 years, MSU won 4 times: 2011, 2015, 2017, 2021. When was MSU good and when were they mediocre, or worse?
Of those years, MSU's worst was 2017, when they went 10-3 overall, 7-2 in conference, and beat Washington State in the Holiday Bowl.
In conclusion, MSU only beats us when they are good, or we are bad, in this century.
Original comment from Blue Heron stands.
Edit: That was a fun exercise, but I guess your real point was that it's possible by the end of the year, we will see that Michigan is, in fact, a bad team. I guess that's true, in theory. But if by the end of the year we decide that, Blue Heron's statement will still be true.
October 16th, 2023 at 12:44 PM ^
To add to your point, it's weird how people still talk about 2017 as if we were better than them. We finished 8-5 without a single win over anyone of substance. That wasn't a good Michigan team, period. I agree the original point stands - it's something I've also been saying for a long time.
Bad MSU has beaten bad UM, good MSU has beaten bad UM, good MSU has beaten good UM. Bad MSU has not beaten good UM since....?
October 16th, 2023 at 9:21 PM ^
Don't tell anyone, but I totally didn't count 2001 as an MSU win. Oops, lol. I just glossed right over all the Carr years counting those as wins.
So actually 2001, which is this century, is when a bad MSU last beat a good UM. Spartan Bob.
MSU finished 3-5 in conference, 7-5 overall. We were 6-2 in conference, 8-4 overall.
October 15th, 2023 at 8:38 PM ^
You made some notable points. However, everyone plays Iowa even, until they lose to Iowa.
October 16th, 2023 at 9:34 AM ^
They lost to Rutgers and got destroyed by Maryland. Only two wins are CMU and Richmond. Lost to Iowa and their backup QB. What are we missing here? Never mind the Washington game given they're pretty good.
October 15th, 2023 at 2:50 PM ^
M 31
State 13
October 15th, 2023 at 3:04 PM ^
Good prediction. May I tag along?
#GoBlue
October 15th, 2023 at 4:17 PM ^
Same score against them as 2006.
October 15th, 2023 at 2:54 PM ^
Your feels don’t matter to the betters and the line Vegas needs to set to limit its exposure.
October 15th, 2023 at 2:56 PM ^
Let JJ light them up, they have a bad secondary, take advantage of it for once
October 15th, 2023 at 2:56 PM ^
it actually feels low to me. The wheels were already coming off and they just had one of their biggest Sparty Nos in years. I think theyll put a fight for a few drives but ultimately its gonna be more of the same
probably something like 45-10
October 15th, 2023 at 3:02 PM ^
I can already hear Dantonio b*tching about disrespect. Although I'm a little surprised at the line. If this were at the big house, I could see it. But on the road in a night game against a rival who is going to play their best game of the season and has their backs to the wall....maybe not so much.
I'd love another blowout and God knows, Sparty deserves it. But 2016 reminds me that they're going to be annoying and play so much better. We were 7-0, they had lost 5 in a row. They scored first on us and we won 32-23. With how awful MSU looked all year, I think very few expected that to be a 32-23 type game. And they won with "dignity" or whatever.
Definitely hope I'm wrong and the score becomes so lopsided that there's only Michigan fans left in the stadium.
October 15th, 2023 at 6:08 PM ^
I know the score doesn’t show it, but we kicked the shit out of MSU in 2016. We were up 30-10 in the middle of the fourth and we just let them run out the clock. There was a 0% chance they could win that game. They scored with 1 second to go. It was obvious we stopped caring about the score and just wanted to get the game over with.
October 15th, 2023 at 7:36 PM ^
2016 was the Defeated with Dignity year.
This year, MSU is out of dignity.
October 15th, 2023 at 7:52 PM ^
Similarly 2018 the score did not reflect the domination. The final was 21-7. They had 94 total yards for the game (less than their pregame stormtrooper march). Their one TD was a 7-yard drive after a turnover.
We should have scored more, but, Shea...
October 15th, 2023 at 8:06 PM ^
Not always crazy about Gus Johnson but I did love his call of the bomb from Patterson to Peoples-Jones.
October 15th, 2023 at 3:03 PM ^
Rutger almost covered that in the fourth quarter yesterday.
October 15th, 2023 at 3:04 PM ^
While I’d love to see a 119-0 drubbing like 1902, I’ll take 28-0 with Michigan playing its 2nd and 3rd string for 60 minutes.