So Do We Play TCU No Matter What?
Assume with USC’s loss, OSU is in at four. A Michigan win and a TCU loss likely doesn’t drop TCU behind OSU given their SOS this season. A Michigan loss and a TCU win means they flip flop, as they likely wouldn’t pair OSU against Michigan in the semis (the rematch in the championship is a tv ratings dream). Both teams lose and I think they stay put, with OSU sliding in at four.
Jack Herer is telling my brain that this makes sense, but tell me what I’m missing.
December 3rd, 2022 at 12:49 AM ^
If we play Ohio State again that is genuinely going to be either the best day or the worst day of my life, and I've seen some shit.
December 3rd, 2022 at 12:58 AM ^
Any honest Michigan OR OSU fan should be terrified with a rematch. If it happens, someone is going to experience a pain that has never been felt in the entire history of the rivalry.
If OSU loses, it's going to be the first time they've ever lost to us twice in one season. Can you imagine?
If we lose, it's going to be the first time our amazing season ending championship/playoff clinching victory over OSU is going to be emotionally nullified by losing an even bigger game against them one month later.
Yuck.
December 3rd, 2022 at 1:11 AM ^
From reading OSU fans later this week it seems like they’ve talked themselves into thinking the UM game was a fluke and with another shot they’d beat us. Basically back to their normal bravado mixed in with Day bashing.
Now being resurrected has given them a shot in the arm based on Twitter comments tonight. I don’t follow any OSU fans but I’ve had about 4 OSU fans chime in on the 2-3 tweets I’ve made since the game ended. They are giddy.
December 3rd, 2022 at 1:28 AM ^
I'm not surprised. Also those kind of people might literally die if they watched us beat them again. 365 days of "okay that was a fluke it was snowing and we had the flu" followed by losing followed by a month of "okay that was also a fluke they had too many big plays we'll cover guys next time" followed by losing again? A blood vessel somewhere in their brains would burst and that would be it.
December 3rd, 2022 at 11:05 AM ^
But OSU is playing with house money right now so another loss to Michigan is more of a validation of the previous loss. OSU already has a not so good data point, stuff to work on to get better, etc, and have likely processed the loss in that manner. If Michigan were in OSU's shoes, I could live with that. However, Michigan earned every bit of that victory in a very hostile environment and was awarded with the CFP seeding. OSU backed in because USC played like shit.
In other words, OSU woke up today on third base thinking they hit a triple. Almost literally.
December 3rd, 2022 at 1:37 AM ^
Even Connelly was floating the fluke theory. "They hit a bunch of isolated high-leverage plays." Yes, but why?
I'm a Knicks fan. We just played the Milwaukee Bucks and lost despite outscoring a team that had Giannis freaking Antetokounmpo in the paint because the Bucks were better from 3. Imagine thinking "oh the Bucks only won because they got more open looks from 3, it's not repeatable." Yes but WHY did they get open looks from 3? Did it have anything to do with the fact that they had a cheat code we had to collapse in the paint on?
WHY did Michigan hit so many big plays (and missed the chance to hit more)? Why did they have so many opportunities?
You could argue maaaaaybe that without Corum, ground and pound wouldn't be quite as effective as it was the rest of the season for Michigan if OSU played a more conservative style but this "well take away the big plays that were a direct result of how we were forced to play because we are soft up front" is ridiculous.
December 3rd, 2022 at 5:16 AM ^
Wait...wait...you root for a team named the bucks...how can you possible be a Michigan fan...the bucks...no way.
December 3rd, 2022 at 7:43 AM ^
No, he’s a Knicks fan. The Knicks are the Lions of the NBA. Have pity on this poor soul.
December 3rd, 2022 at 7:34 AM ^
Hey Connelly, choke on 28-3 dicks.
December 3rd, 2022 at 9:18 AM ^
"They hit a bunch of isolated high-leverage plays."
Isolated? So Connelly understands math pretty well, but apparently he doesn't understand football. Those plays were set up by the entire running game. There is nothing isolated in football when the 'isolated' thing happened repeatedly because of something else. Isolated is that USC safety making a tackle downfield. Isolated is most definitely not FIVE bomb touchdowns because the defense had to play Cover 0 and leave everything open trying to stop one thing.
December 3rd, 2022 at 10:21 AM ^
Isolated is not two wide receivers open to go the distance at the same time. Yes, two! 2 plays and maybe three big plays are a fluke. 5 big plays is not a fluke.
December 3rd, 2022 at 11:56 AM ^
Meet Georgia, the elephant in the room. Does anyone really think OSU can hang with Georgia?
December 3rd, 2022 at 1:30 AM ^
In lieu of a rematch, I would settle for Georgia destroying them followed by us beating Georgia to win the whole damn thing. Would take away whatever fluke argument osu is trying to roll with and we don’t have to play their sorry asses again.
December 3rd, 2022 at 1:39 AM ^
Man I think we can beat anyone else in the country (maybe even Bama) but UGA feels like it would go similarly to last year, especially now that their tight ends are even better. If any offensive line can run the ball on them, it's us for sure, but I don't think it will come to fruition, or at least not to the level we need.
And they have a very talented secondary. They could replicate the Illinois game plan but much more effectively. Or honestly could do what they did last year, sit back in coverage and still limit the running game. They're too fucking good.
December 3rd, 2022 at 1:49 AM ^
It would not be good for the B10 nationally if Georgia destroys both OSU and UM back to back
December 3rd, 2022 at 7:09 AM ^
So, am I hearing we want OSU to beat Georgia because we at least have a decent shot of beating OSU again?
December 3rd, 2022 at 8:05 AM ^
Yes?? Michigan scouted the hell out of OSU not UGA, after our second half adjustments against OSU I'd say we'll be well prepared for a rematch. I get the emotional scars if we were to lose to them but I think from a practical standpoint having them at the 4 is good for us.
December 3rd, 2022 at 10:27 AM ^
I would think with a month to prepare that the staff could do it again.
December 3rd, 2022 at 6:50 AM ^
They’re good, no doubt. But they were way better last year. That D was an NFL scout tam, maybe better. Lard ass is gone and most of the playmakers that shut us down. They aren’t unbeatable, just tough to beat and Smart is as good as it gets with time to prepare. watching OSU get beat like a drum will be a late Xmas present, especially with all the shit they talked about being the only team that could beat them. Now prove it buckeyes, you got your wish.
December 3rd, 2022 at 7:41 AM ^
Georgia does not seem as fearsome as last year, while we are clearly a better team. When JJ played last year, our offense got moving. On the other hand, Stetson Bennett is really good. I'd like to see the rematch very much.
December 3rd, 2022 at 8:02 AM ^
I think having a month to prepare for a semifinal game vs just over a week for the championship game makes a big difference. I just think Michigan has more of a chance with shorter prep time. Just look at how the can adapt better at halftime.
December 3rd, 2022 at 9:14 AM ^
Last year's prep for Georgia does help somewhat.
December 4th, 2022 at 12:49 AM ^
But he is still named after a hat and nothing Georgia can do will change that.
December 3rd, 2022 at 9:40 AM ^
Michigan would be a favorite against Alabama (Bama's defense and run game are far below their recent standards), and Georgia is human this year. Having seen Georgia last year, Michigan should be ready for game speed with them earlier in the game, hypothetically.
December 3rd, 2022 at 8:47 AM ^
Sadly Georgia would be less than a TD favorite over OSU, maybe even closer to 4
December 3rd, 2022 at 4:06 AM ^
I think we crush them again. They either load the line of scrimmage and JJ exploits their weak secondary or they back out of it and we run the ball like we have all year. Donovan's hand will be better and we might even have Blake back.
To me it doesn't matter either way. I think we have their number.
December 3rd, 2022 at 5:12 AM ^
"we might even have Blake back."
Corum is supposed to be getting season-ending knee surgery.
December 3rd, 2022 at 7:04 AM ^
It’s only season ending according to an nfl reporter and everyone piled on. Harbaugh and Blake have confirmed nothing. I’d like to see what Mullings can do. That wouldn’t be lightning and thunder, it’d be lightning and a dam freight train. I was impressed with Tryanum last week and how he virtually came out of nowhere, so why not us.
December 3rd, 2022 at 8:25 AM ^
Do we know what kind of surgery Blake had? If it was just an arthroscopy to clean stuff up, he could very well be back by the end of the month.
December 3rd, 2022 at 9:06 AM ^
Even if OSU makes it in there is a good chance there is no rematch.
The odds are the CFB Playoff Committee will likely try to avoid a rematch in the semis if at all possible.
Georgia likely would have a 60% chance of beating OSU. We'd likely have a 60% chance of beating TCU. If those probabilities are correct, that means only a 24% chance of a rematch or so.
December 3rd, 2022 at 9:50 AM ^
This has been me since about 11:00pm last night.
I truly do not want to face OSU in the playoffs. It feels wrong and stupid and needlessly dangerous.
December 3rd, 2022 at 10:54 AM ^
Totally agreed. The one silver lining is that *if* OSU plays Georgia, and wins, we’ll have some more useful film on OSU (and vice versa).
December 3rd, 2022 at 1:02 AM ^
I read that in the voice of Chuck Norris and it made me feel better.
December 3rd, 2022 at 1:14 AM ^
Chuck, you're not afraid of anything according to Alexa.
Anyway, here is the reality we are all going to have to deal with; whether we like it or not, we will play OSU twice in a season at some point.
1) Conferences championship games aren't going away period.
2) The B16 is going to do away with divisions soon.
3) The CFP is going to 12 Teams after next season.
4) Both Michigan and OSU are high-end teams for now and the foreseeable future.
We will be playing OSU twice in a season eventually, with the possibility of 3 times if the stars align.
December 3rd, 2022 at 1:39 AM ^
I think a 12- team playoff should do away with Conf championships.
December 3rd, 2022 at 2:13 AM ^
Contacts, $$$ & network conglomerates say otherwise.
December 3rd, 2022 at 8:17 AM ^
The 12 team playoff should eliminate the ccgs, but it won't.
This won't happen either, but ideally the ccgs get integrated into the playoffs. Something like playoffs consist of 6 ccgs game winners joining winners of 2 play-in game winners for a round of 8. Top 4 conference championship game winners get home field in round of 8.
December 3rd, 2022 at 5:19 AM ^
Yikes, but probabaly true
December 3rd, 2022 at 11:35 AM ^
Username checks out
December 3rd, 2022 at 12:52 AM ^
Got to think that there is a small chance that we play Georgia if we lose and are the 4 seed or if we win and Georgia loses there may be a small chance that we play OSU.
December 3rd, 2022 at 12:57 AM ^
Don't buy the first scenero of having any chance of happening because that requires the committee to put OSU ahead of UM. They literally would have no justification for doing so and they know that regardless of what UM does.
December 3rd, 2022 at 9:08 AM ^
The only reason I could see OSU jumping us is if it is to avoid a rematch in the semis based on chaos happening in today's games.
December 3rd, 2022 at 5:15 AM ^
If Georgia loses to LSU, there are scenarios where we play them in the semifinals instead of TCU.
December 3rd, 2022 at 6:37 AM ^
Think only way we play Georgia in the semis is if we both lose and TCU blows out K-State and jump to first place
TCU would be only undefeated team and Michigan/Georgia/OSU all have one loss and no way would they put OSU anywhere above 4
December 3rd, 2022 at 10:45 AM ^
That's one scenario, but we don't need to lose. If Georgia loses and TCU and Michigan both win, we'll definitely play Georgia.
December 3rd, 2022 at 7:08 AM ^
The committee will avoid first round rematches if at all possible-just as they did last year.
December 3rd, 2022 at 12:52 AM ^
If Michigan's reward for beating OSU at OSU is playing fucking previously #2 OSU in the semis- that would be really annoying. I would assume they'd avoid the rematch in the semis though.
December 3rd, 2022 at 2:20 AM ^
Last year they went out of their way to say that they are matching up based on seeds, not interesting teams to play each other. So 1 will play 4 and 2 will play 3.
So it seems Michigan will play TCU if TCU wins, and will potentially play OSU if TCU loses...assuming OSU moves up.
In that case bama or tcu would be the 4th seed.
Not much chance Michigan will rise to #1 but georgia still has to play the sec championship so its possible.
December 3rd, 2022 at 10:56 AM ^
TCU could stay #3 with a close loss. The real risk is what happens if UGA chokes agains LSU.