The Vig: Week 7
Lines from Fanduel
Interesting slate this week...I am think a 3 team parlay with Cinci, Georgia, and MSU all covering. I might get in on the Ole Miss game too, if I can figure out which side of the o/u I like.
Clemson @ Syracuse +13.5
Clemson has not covered yet this year.
Cal @ Oregon -13.5
Oregon is kinda meh after beating OSU. This loss actually cold hurt OSU if Oregon keeps playing the way they do. Although I’m sure folks will look at how OSU fixed their defense against such offensive juggernauts as Akron, Rutgers, and Maryland.
Auburn @ Arkansas -4.5
MSU @ Indiana +4.5
Oddsmakers still don’t love MSU. I kinda like them and the points.
Nebraska @ Minnesota +3.5
Nebraska is good, but every time Fleck’s team is dead in the water…they row the b…yeah, ok.
UCF@ Cincinnati -21.5
Big number, I’m taking it. I think Cincinnati knows they need style points and UCF is down their starting QB.
Oklahoma St @ Texas -4.5 OK State is undefeated with a really good defense and a bad offense. The under might be the play here U60.5
Kentucky @ Georgia -21.5 Georgia has given up 33 points this year. They don’t let anyone run and Kentucky’s bread and butter is: the run game. I like to Georgia to cover
Bama @ Miss St +16.5 I think Bama bounces back and rolls.
TCU @ OU -13.5 I like Oklahoma and the points…I think Williams puts up some big numbers in his first start.
Ole Miss @ Tennessee +2.5 O/U 83.5(!) That’s a really high number but neither team has figured out how to get opposing players to stop moving the ball forward.
Iowa State @ K State +6.5 I like the home dog, K St is good..and the Fighting Matt Campbells…well they are just ok. They have lost to both teams they’ve played that have a pulse. I think ISU wins but don’t cover.
UCLA @ Washington -1.5 UCLA loves to run and Washington is really bad against the run.
October 14th, 2021 at 4:48 PM ^
You like MSU, but Indiana’s points?
October 14th, 2021 at 6:48 PM ^
I know right? Not sure where he was going with that. I like MSU -4.5
October 14th, 2021 at 4:52 PM ^
Wasn't the MSU line even lower earlier, like 2.5? Isn't Penix out? I despise MSU but it would take some classic "Sparty, No!" for them not to cover this, I don't get it. Am I missing something here? Bloomington isn't a deathtrap stadium or anything.
October 14th, 2021 at 4:59 PM ^
Indiana can't be worse without Penix. He's looked awful.
October 14th, 2021 at 5:12 PM ^
This is fair, but you are talking about a top 15 team playing a below average P5 team that just make a forced QB change mid season due to injury. I'm just not seeing it, but I don't set the odds.
October 14th, 2021 at 4:54 PM ^
Alabama is Smooth Jimmy's ? of the Week.
You wouldn't like Nick Saban when he's angry.
October 14th, 2021 at 5:11 PM ^
Yeap. It probably wasn't a good week to be a men's tackle football player in Tuscaloosa this week.
October 14th, 2021 at 8:09 PM ^
I thought Ole Miss was going to pull off the late cover last week. It is hard to stay undefeated on locks of the week but Smooth Jimmy has had a great year so I am rolling with The Tide this week including the first half line.
October 14th, 2021 at 9:00 PM ^
Yeah, sorry about that brother. I felt horrible when the Hogs scored on the last play last week.
You know Smooth Jimmy wouldn't do you dirty like that on purpose.
October 14th, 2021 at 4:54 PM ^
Funny how the spread for UM and Indiana is the same against MSU. 3.5-4.5
I guess they don't like us much either.
October 14th, 2021 at 4:56 PM ^
I've made a decent amount off Sparty this year, so to make sure I'm not some sort of good luck charm I bet the Money Line on Indiana.
October 14th, 2021 at 5:12 PM ^
Same. I'm small potatoes, but I don't think public money has caught up to MSU yet.
October 14th, 2021 at 4:58 PM ^
I took MSU, Nebraska, Iowa, and Rutgers spreads so fast when bets became available Sunday. Nothing is ever guaranteed but those seem like gimmes to me. Add those in with moneylines on WMU, Bama, Georgia, Florida, and Oregon and you got yourself a nice parlay that has a good chance of hitting.
October 14th, 2021 at 5:03 PM ^
Yeah, Rutgers-Northwestern came out as a pick-em and I immediately put money down. I'm now trying to figure out what the oddsmakers saw that I didn't. Even with a backup QB, Rutgers should beat them, right?
October 14th, 2021 at 5:07 PM ^
I agree with some of your takes, but I came to say that I was struck by how many story lines have faded through half the season.
Ole miss, UCLA, Washington, Tennessee, Texas, Nebraska, Indiana, Arkansas, Oregon. The media has played up these teams either preseason or during and they've flopped, some repeatedly. Many in very disappointing fashion
It's just nice that we're still going strong. On to 7-0!!
October 14th, 2021 at 5:13 PM ^
Tennessee is 4-2 with 2 good losses. I think they've outperformed their preseason expectation. I put money down on the over for them and it was 6 wins.
UCLA was a question mark but beating UCLA turned out to not be as good a win as people though, cause LSU was way overvalued as a preseason 15, based off of purely nothing. Every reason people said Michigan would suck SHOULD'VE applied to Penn State and LSU.
Texas could very well go 8-1 in conference and play OU in the conference title game.
Arkansas is better than most people thought. Beating Texas the way they did, 1 point loss to Ole Miss...and well...Georgia is Georgia. Oregon wins out, and I think they make the playoff.
October 14th, 2021 at 5:27 PM ^
"Oddsmakers still don’t love MSU. I kinda like them and the points"
Confused by this, you do realize IU is getting the points, right?
October 14th, 2021 at 9:01 PM ^
the lines aren't consistent, meaning the way they are written up in the OP is ambiguous or even contradictory. normally you list the favorite first, the points, then the dog, with an '@' symbol in front of the home team.
October 14th, 2021 at 5:46 PM ^
“I like Oklahoma and the points…I think Williams puts up some big numbers in his first start.”
”Oddsmakers still don’t love MSU. I kinda like them and the points.”
FYI, I don’t think you understand what “liking the points” or “taking the points” means in gambling lingo. “Liking/Taking the points” refers to taking the underdog to cover the spread whereas “laying the points” refers to taking the favorite to cover the spread. In both the OU and MSU instances above, you’d be laying the points, not taking/liking them.
I’m hammering MSU and Rutgers. The last time I bet on MSU to cover this season, they didn’t vs. Nebraska so hoping that happens again but they actually lose this time.
October 15th, 2021 at 10:46 AM ^
Thanks...you're right, still learning the lingo.
October 14th, 2021 at 5:59 PM ^
brb, betting the farm on Rutgers
October 14th, 2021 at 8:25 PM ^
6-7 last week on the games I put in the Vig thread. 24-18 overall. Staying away from over/unders this week since I was 0-3 last week. I locked a bunch of these in on Sunday night so lines are probably different now.
Sparty -3.5 over Indiana
Nebraska -2.5 over Minnesota - feels like a trap
Bama -17.5 over Miss. St.
Bama -10 first half
Air Force ML +198 over Boise
Ole Miss -2.5 over Tennessee
Georgia -13.5 first half over Kentucky
Florida -4.5 first half over LSU
Rutgers -2 over Northwestern - farm on the line.
Good luck everyone!
October 14th, 2021 at 8:55 PM ^
You bet 42 college games last week???
October 14th, 2021 at 10:26 PM ^
24-18 is my total since I started to keep track on the Vig threads.
I was 6 wins and 7 losses last week on Vig thread picks.
I do bet a lot of games at very low amounts ($5 -20) and then I have somewhere around 10 or less that I put more money on ($30-100).
I also bet quite a few NFL games and player props.
I have a set budget and just keep playing until the money runs out or football season ends. I have to stay away from the NBA. I am awful at NBA gambling and a little less than average at college basketball.
October 17th, 2021 at 7:23 AM ^
Finished 5-4 for the week.
29-22 for the Vig season.
October 14th, 2021 at 11:48 PM ^
I just want to point out that DraftKings now has college hockey lines. Michigan is -135 vs Minnesota Duluth Friday night. Also, they're the favorites to win the championship at +400. You can get into it if you want to be a real junkie.
October 15th, 2021 at 1:26 AM ^
Here's one for the bad beats history book. I had the Red Wings to win tonight and it would have paid out +185. The Wings held a 3 goal advantage with a little over 6 minutes to play in the third period.
Yeah, the Wings lost in OT. I hope my weekend goes better.
October 15th, 2021 at 7:43 AM ^
I'm on a bad run. 6 losses in a row. I'm hitting at a 60% clip on my single bets -but keep blowing money on parlays. I need a few wins to build the bankroll back up.
I've got:
2 units on MSU -3.5
1 unit parlay: (msu -3.5, BC +3.5, ULCA ML and ASU +.5) +1196
1 unit parlay: (nebraska, under 44.5 uga/uk, bama -17.5, Tennessee +2.5) +996
and although I don't bet NFL generally ever -- I have a $10 risk free bet at +37110 odds that isn't worth talking about until its half over.
October 15th, 2021 at 8:22 AM ^
I don't gamble so I'm ignorant of gambling lexicon but what in hell is "vig"
October 15th, 2021 at 8:57 AM ^
Vig aka Vigorish/Juice/Cut/Margin
It is the fee charged by the 'house' or bookmaker to accept a wager. Its their keep to ensure they profit regardless of the outcome.
If it isn't clear by now - The Vig is the unofficial place where we talk about sports gambling week to week...
October 15th, 2021 at 8:59 AM ^
Hi Don,
Vigorish (also known as juice, under-juice, the cut, the take, the margin, the house edge or simply the vig) is the fee charged by a bookmaker (or bookie) for accepting a gambler's wager. In American English, it can also refer to the interest owed a loanshark in consideration for credit.
October 15th, 2021 at 9:11 AM ^
Oregon has real problems at QB - Anthony Brown ain't it and I'm not sure they have a replacement on the roster. Moorhead is a brilliant playcaller and can call a game around his offense's limitations...but we don't know if he'll be back or not.
With Moorhead calling plays I think Oregon covers (mostly because their defense is pretty good and Cal's offense is fucking embarrassing) with uncertainty around Moorhead - I'd stay far away.
October 15th, 2021 at 10:52 AM ^
The UCLA game and the Rutgers game are the two at first blush that really standout to me. This lines seem to be overweighted to recent performance.
October 15th, 2021 at 11:45 AM ^
Washington seems specifically designed to get hammered by UCLA with their inability to stop the run. and somehow I got UCLA as the dog.
October 15th, 2021 at 11:45 AM ^
Washington seems specifically designed to get hammered by UCLA with their inability to stop the run. and somehow I got UCLA as the dog.
October 15th, 2021 at 5:05 PM ^
last week record 3-6. Season record 20-24.
Nebraska -3.5
Auburn/Arkansas Under 54
Ball St/Eastern Michigan Under 54
Virginia Tech +5
Georgia -21 (-120)
Alabama -17.5
Boston College +3
Kansas St -6.5
Louisiana Tech -6.5
October 16th, 2021 at 11:15 AM ^
I hate saying this, but Sparty laying 4 against a backup QB is easy money
experience has taught me that when a bet looks like easy money, go opposite
tbat said, I’m going double Costanza (opposite of opposite) and heavy on MSU…