Around The Horns: Livers Draft Stock, Burke Back, Top Prospect Duncan Robinson
Isaiah Livers: Potentially Draftable
Figuring out the draft stock of any player projected outside the lottery is difficult in a normal NBA Draft cycle. This is obviously not a normal NBA Draft cycle. Isaiah Livers still has a month to gather information and make a decision about returning for his senior season. At the moment, the consensus has him on the outside looking in:
- The Athletic's Sam Vecenie: #87
- ESPN: #95
- NBADraftNet: #98
- Bleacher Report: NR (board goes to 50)
- The Ringer: NR (board goes to 50)
- Tankathon: NR (board goes to 72)
- SI: NR (board goes to 80)
The issue with projecting the back half of the draft, however, is it only takes one front office with a differing evaluation to make the big boards moot. That's why I try to keep an eye out for the occasional curveball projection if the source has done their homework. FanSided has some strong NBA coverage—I recommend The Nylon Calculus for the numbers-inclined—and their big board has Livers at #53. Their scouting report rings true:
A big wing who can shoot, Livers also uses his frame well to create looks coming around curls and has improved to some degree as an on-ball creator this season. He is not a flashy pick but the shooting and size are a valuable combo at this stage of the draft.
This is apparent given how long he's explored his options, but I wouldn't assume Livers is back next season. All it takes is one team.
[Hit THE JUMP for Trey Burke's return, evaluating Duncan Robinson as an emerging NBA player, and more.]
Welcome Back, King
Back at it with the @dallasmavs
— Trey Burke (@TreyBurke) July 1, 2020
Ready to work! pic.twitter.com/BZaw9BoGst
While Trey Burke's NBA career hasn't gone to plan, he's also persevered where many once-hyped prospects have chosen to move on. He played 25 games this season with Philadelphia before getting waived in February despite solid offensive production. Should the Orlando bubble not pop, he'll get another shot with Dallas, a team that had him for 25 games in 2018-19. This is an opportunity for him to show out and hopefully secure a more stable future as a team's long-term solution at backup point guard.
Duncan Robinson > Miles Bridges
yeah, there's an even longer part two
I didn't say it. Sam Vecenie did, in so many words, when he released his in-depth rankings of the top 50 NBA players on rookie-scale contracts. Duncan Robinson—Duncan Robinson!—comes in at #44 and Vecenie has some ludicrous numbers to back up his assertion [emphasis mine]:
I think I undersold it when I said Robinson might be one of the 10 best shooters on planet Earth. Robinson has been the best shooter in the NBA this season and has turned into a real starter for the Miami Heat. Only one other player in league history has made at least 44 percent of his 3-point attempts on over eight attempts per game: Stephen Curry. No player scored more points off of catch-and-shoot jumpers in the halfcourt. In fact, no one was even close. Robinson had 578 points off of such shots when the league was suspended; the next closest player was Davis Bertans at 369. Robinson legitimately scored 200 more points on jumpers off the catch than anyone in the NBA this season. And on top of the volume, he had the best efficiency on such shots of any player in the top 20 of points scored in such situations.
Sweet mercy. Some players Robinson finished ahead of in Vecenie's rankings:
- Luke Kennard (45)
- Miles Bridges (46)
- Jarrett Culver (48)
- Darius Garland (49)
- Mikal Bridges (HM)
- Kyle Kuzma (HM)
- Markelle Fultz (HM)
As Vecenie noted, nobody could've reasonably said they saw this coming. Robinson was an excellent spot-up shooter at Michigan but didn't display the ability to drain shots on the move that he's developed in Miami. He continues to maximize his talent and it's fun as hell to watch.
Watch Videos, Learn Things
Run, don't walk, to this thread from Eric Shapiro compiling his videos explaining basketball concepts and terminology. Here's a relevant Michigan bit:
How to Talk Basketball #14
— Eric Shapiro (@eric_shap) June 22, 2020
Roll/Replace: A pick & roll action where the ball screener rolls to the rim as another player moves from the paint to the three point arc where the screener just came frompic.twitter.com/PKZh1hiqNX
It's easy to feel like you're drowning in jargon with a lot of basketball scheme breakdowns but Eric does a great job of making it accessible.
I appreciate Duncan Robinson for many reasons but I also appreciate the fact that maybe just maybe he will shut people up about the NBA not having any coaching or players improving when in fact the NBA has some of the best coaches in the world and players get to solely focus on improving their games with no restrictions on practice time.
Also speaks to the overall diversity of basketball - especially on the NBA level. Miami is running Duncan off screens to get him open for catch-and-shoot 3's (it's almost like a bit of an evolution of Rip Hamilton's mid-range game) where Beilein's offense didn't typically run off-ball screens. It set Duncan up for catch-and-shoot corner 3's, but not the off-the-move, off-ball screen 3's that he's been canning in the league.
At this point you have to wonder if Beilein could have gotten more out of him at Michigan. He averaged 9.2 ppg and shot 38% from downtown (from a shorter distance) his senior year. Now in fairness, we did make the national title game that year, but still...
It’s a fair question. When you have a shooter like that (who doesn’t create his own shot), there’s pretty much one way to maximize him, and that’s to endlessly run him off screens. Otherwise he isn’t going to get much volume, since opponents won’t often make the mistake of leaving him to provide help.
I’m too lazy to go find it right now but back in Jan/Feb Beilein was doing an interview or film study thing after the Cavs job didn’t work out and he was talking about Duncan. In true Beilein fashion, he focused mainly on Duncan’s work ethic but then made a comment like “man, it’s clear I didn’t use him to his full potential” or something like that. A lot of the Duncan articles since he’s taken off in the nba have focused on Spoelstra giving him a complete green light and working on his confidence - stuff like realizing it’s selfish to not shoot 9 threes a game when you’re that good. Such a cool story.
Feels like Livers' goal is to leave. Like all other people, it's going to be easy to accept evidence that supports what he wants to do anyway. Seems like most people are saying that he won't get drafted (Vecenie said on a podcast with Brendan Quinn his best-case scenario is a 2-way deal), but I agree he is by no means a lock to return.
If he does come back, he should strive to play ~220 lbs and prove he can be an acceptable athlete for the league while maintaining his shooting.
I mean its like 50/50 at best there is a college basketball season, a 2 way deal this year is a much better option than trying again next year without getting to play
That depends on whether there is any chance he even gets a 2-way deal this year. The last memory the NBA has of him is a season with multiple injuries where he didn't quite show much improvement with shot creation or rebounding. Even if he returns and there is no college season, you'd think there would be a combine and summer league he could play in next year to give him a better chance at the 2-way contract....while also having a degree in his back pocket.
I don't envy his situation - pandemic or not. I really wish the NBA would look at the NHL and realize that draft-and-follow is such a better system. Someone like Livers is probably already the rights of an NBA team and has a better feel for where he stands with the club.
Everyone's goal is to leave.
I hope Livers comes back. I think he needs to work a bit on his 3 point shot, some ball control and at times his defense was a bit sloppy. I don't think he had the big improvement I was looking for this past season but I think one more year at Michigan will improve his draft stock.
Are you serious? Out of all things for Livers to work on, his 3 point shot is no where close to being at the top of that list. Dude was shooting close to 50% from 3 on a decent volume before getting injured
I'm not sure you realized Livers changed his number last year and must have been watching someone else. He's a smart player that does more on the floor than what appears on the stat sheet. I hope he comes back too but not because he needs to really work on anything other than staying healthy.
I like Livers and want to see him succeed (preferably at Michigan for another year and then the NBA). But to say he doesn't really need to work on anything seems wildly positive. Health is key and at worst he has a chance to be a Duncan-like player with his outside shot. That's the good news.
But I suspect scouts would tell him that he has to show he can guard NBA wings (which he hasn't), he could show that he can create his own shot now and then (which he hasn't), he could rebound (he's never shown a ton there), or he could set up his teammates (never been an assist guy). Obviously if he did all of those things he's a top-10 pick and that's not what I'm saying. But even if he's a 3-and-D guy in the NBA....he needs to work on the D.
He needs to work on his dunking against tomato cans. That’s my biggest improvement area for him.
Duncan Robinson only being the #44 player on a rookie contract honestly undersells what he's done on for the Heat. If you look at the advanced stats for how the Heat play with versus without him on the floor and it's night and day
Just speaking politely, Ace, I think we should jettison forever these normative takes on Michigan players who don't become transcendental superstars. Trey's career "hasn't gone according to plan. . ." just isn't terribly interesting or accurate, IMO. It's like saying some architect's career didn't go "according to plan" because they didn't build skyscrapers, or aren't as well known as I.M. Pei. Trey has made millions, had big games, and stuck around the league that has the 60-some-odd best players on earth. He has succeeded, period. That he hasn't lived up to the fantasies of some overweaning fans, okay. . . But I don't count you, generally, in their number.
60 solid NBA players ? What ? There is close to 300 solid NBA players. And another 50 ish fringe roster guys.
I guess it depends on the "plan" that you're basing that on.
Sure, as a 10-year-old it might have been in his wildest dreams to play some years in the NBA and make a few millions dollars.
But when he won the Naismith award and was taken in the lottery, the plan at that time was to do a lot more than he has. He'd be the first to admit that.
When we're talking about a lottery pick who has played on five teams in seven years, I think it's fair to say his career hasn't gone to plan. That doesn't mean he's terrible (Chauncey Billups similarly bounced around the league before landing in Detroit) but no one expects to be changing teams every year when they were the national POY coming out of college.
POY is based on college production, not NBA readiness.
For some reason I'm thinking of Mike Hart. I think there are some parallels.
I see Trey's draft position as a collective scouting failure. He's actually exceeded my expectations.
College POY is the best player that year in college. We all knew he wouldn't be an NBA superstar.
But there is a middle ground between being a superstar and bouncing around the league. I didn't think he'd be a star but thought he'd find a home with some team.
He won the Wooden award as the best player in college basketball!
To say being an oft unemployed journeyman is all we could reasonably have expected for him, or he from himself, is sparty level douchery!
People are grossly overestimating what. college POY guards do in the NBA.
Here are the Naismith and/or Wooden POY guards since 1990: Calbert Cheaney, Jay Williams, T.J. Ford, Jameer Nelson, J.J. Redick, Evan Turner, Jimmer Fredette, Burke, Buddy Hield, Frank Mason, Jalen Brunson. Four of those guys have averaged 10 ppg for their career (Ford, Nelson, Redick and Hield).
I'd be surprised if Livers came back considering there is a decent chance there won't be college ball this year. We'll obviously have to see, but what really hurt him this year was the injury robbed him of a lot of tape for teams to consider.
Robinson turning into an elite shooter is the career I thought Stauskas would have, highlighting how good organizations (Miami) help guys develop while bad ones (Sacramento) don't.
I think you're attributing too much of their respective successes to the organizations and not enough to the individuals. Robinson as "it" and Stauskas didn't/doesn't (and he was given chances at like four or five different teams). Sometimes you don't know that until the highest competition reveals it.
From the title, I thought Trey had figured out how to get his college eligibility back and was coming back to be our PG.
I would guess his wait and see approach has a lot to do with Covid, understandably.
Professional basketball is far more likely to be played than college basketball this winter and that would be a major factor for anyone in his position. If he comes back and Michigan doesn't even play a season, that would be very bad for his professional prospects.
Anyone on the border like him would have been smart to wait and see how those likelihoods might change. With cases surging here in America and very little confidence that it'll get better by the winter, probably will get worse, the idea of getting a contract somewhere to play basketball and to get paid as opposed to neither seems like it might be a good one.
Two extremely tangential thoughts:
1.) Great that Trey is back in the league, but the guy I really want to see in it is Jamal Crawford, while he still has a chance to make the top 50 on all-time scorers list.
2.) As much as it matters for nothing,now, I really wish we'd managed to beat Oregon.
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