Why social distancing matters now more than ever
There is a lot of debate in this country about when the proper time to relax social distancing and work to re-open. Everyone agrees we have to re-open at some point but the discussions around when and how are filled with misinformation. An epidemiologist I know who has obviously been getting a lot of questions pulled this together to help simplify what the models are showing (he's a maryland fan, hence the turgeon reference). The tl;dr version is that social distancing is working but we need it for another few weeks to get to the optimal outcome from both a public health and economic perspective. I hope people find this informative as they think through the issue.
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Friends, we are beating COVID-19. We have the lead. We have the momentum. We can't let up. We're not a Turge team in the B1G Tournament. We can finish out this game.
Aggressive social distancing is just as important now as it has ever been. It is in our public health AND economic interest to do so. I have attached the following scientific figures* to show where we are, and where we might be headed.
*MS Paint drawings, inspired by real-life epidemiological models.
Figure 1 shows where we are. This is the "flattening the curve" graph we all became familiar with in mid-March. We have just started the downslope. Congrats y'all, the curve is flattened. The red line is dead.
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Figure 2 shows our immediate options, projecting out until roughly early fall.
1. We can fully re-open (gold line). This would kill just as many people as if we had never done anything at all, only a little faster this time around.
2. We can partially re-open (blue line). We can go to the barber and have restaurants and churches that are 25% full, and we can keep the number of cases just below national capacity as long as we can.
3. We can keep doing what we're doing now (green line), with aggressive distancing.
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Note that that the difference between #2 and #3 is tens of thousands of American lives. And a lot of those restaurants that barely turned a profit before went out of business when they had to go to 25% capacity.
Figure 3 shows the potential second wave in the fall and winter. Sorry, a vaccine probably won't swoop in and save us in time for college football season. Let's check in on our 3 options.
1. In the second half of 2020, we've killed people at roughly the same rate as the extermination phase of the Holocaust. Your barber was open up until the day before he died. (gold line)
2. Everyone's out of business because they couldn't operate at full capacity, AND several hundred thousand people are dead. (blue line)
3. We won the race. We implemented containment before the second wave hit. There are still some restrictions on large gatherings, but by and large, the economy is open, and we had a total of 100k-125k deaths in 2020. Prevalence has fallen to a level where we can do testing and tracing, and we contain local pockets of infection. (green line)
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The choice is pretty obvious to me. The option that is best for public health is also the one that is best for the economy. We have to bite the bullet for the next little while. We have to continue to socially distance as aggressively as ever, y'all.
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We can beat this thing. If you'd like to get deep in the weeds of some pretty advanced epidemiology, Figure 4 shows how aggressive social distancing at this stage can manipulate the coronavirus' transmission dynamics in such a way that we save both a whole bunch of lives and a whole bunch of jobs.
Wash your hands, wear a mask, don't touch your face, and stay away from people.
We don't need to be locked in our houses to do that, but anyone who wants to stay shut in is free to do so.
Yeah... I don't get why people are acting as if people have no intention of taking precautions when things are opened up.
Most businesses I've seen are limiting people and/or requiring masks for entrance. As this disease inhabits moisture droplets from inside the lungs/mouth/sinuses, etc., masks alone dramatically drop the cases of infection. South Korea and Taiwan have already proven this. (Yeah, yeah, there are some who won't wear masks... their loss. Stay away from them. I'll bet that even in the countries where governments roll over the wills of their masses, there are occasional dissenters).
And most people I know already know somebody who has been sick. Even if the disease was not serious for their friend/relative, they still don't want to catch it. They're living their lives, but doing it with masks, washings, etc., at the appropriate times and places. I think more people are acting like this than cynics on this board are giving them credit for (Funny how we seem to distrust "the masses" whenever it might conflict with our own worldview, politics, or pet peeves, isn't it?)
The curve only shoots back up if society as a whole decides to be stupid about precautions. If they're not stupid about it (and private businesses for the most part are enforcing the mask rule, which makes a big difference), there shouldn't be an issue.
See how that works?
Exactly. Unfortunately we have become binary in our thinking: lock down vs fully open; economic health vs people dying.
In the end, those of us who think a full lockdown is overkill expect some precaution. I'll wear a mask, wash my hands like crazy and will help compromised folks if it means we can get back to some kind of life.
ROFLMAO...
I live in Chapel Hill NC., one of the more educated regions of this country; despite the entitlement, racism, and constant drinking... go figure. HOWEVER...
In my luxury community, I've witnessed one out of three men handle themselves while taking a piss, then walk right out the fuckin bathroom door at the clubhouse. Isn't UNC known for Pre-Med?
Most HUMANS, especially here in the USofA are not used to being as diligent about hygiene. How many of you wash your hands BEFORE taking a piss...ex. so you touched everything everywhere then touch your penis (not smart). How many of you wash your hands after touching a menu at a restaurant? How many people handle those menus, then you're going to stick food in your mouth? When was the last time any of you wiped down the steering wheel and gearshift on your car?
Seriously... it's a brave new world, because most aren't capable of any sort of critical thinking and the average attention span is about 8 seconds. We legislate to the lowest common denominator... that's why you're suffering with "STAY AT HOME" orders, because our FED has to appeal to that same 'lowest common denominator' for everything.
Welcome to an overly liberal society...
Thank you ... And how are those States doing? Thank you again.
imo, restaurants (and other places) should have a sanitizer dispenser at the entrance with a sign encouraging people to use it upon entering (and exiting). if porta johns at UM games can have them, establishments can make utilize them. most people will use it if encouraged. that alone should improve the R naught everyone talks about big time.
I'm a conservative, and I'm pretty sure being liberal or conservative has nothing to do with being stupid about handling your dick and not washing your hands. You're just a piece of shit pig if you don't.
Coumo was shocked that 66% of all infected were locked indoors!
I'd be more shocked that 34% weren't?!
Coumo is my Governor, and he's an idiot. There were all sorts of reports coming out of Italy of people who were confirmed infected without leaving their apartments. There was conjecture that it was spreading through the shared HVAC system.
Sounds like masks might have helped in Italy then, if that's the case?
Masks always help. If you need to wear one in your apartment to stay safe, why not just wear one outside to stay safe.
Only inside public spaces (grocery primarily) for me, thanks!
Outdoors, keeping my social distance & moving briskly past passers by will do I believe.
Outside on a sunny day is probably the safest places to be. The UV light helps kill viruses and stimulate vitamin D production.
I'm disappointed that so little space has been given to nutrition needed to stay healthy. Adequate Vitamin C and D levels are excellent predictors of how one will fare vs. this virus (and many others).
I have to wonder that the states that are opening up, the places getting the most people are parks and beaches. It's as if people instinctively recognize that needing to be in the sun and near salt water and fresh air is exactly what they need. During WW1 they found having soldiers sick with Spanish Flu lay out in the sun helped them recover faster.
he also thought it was a good idea to send recovering covid patients back to their nursing homes.
Very few people in this country are actually locking themselves indoors and if they say they are, they're lying.
And for those very few that truly are locking themselves indoors, they're living with or receiving services from people who aren't locking themselves indoors (who are then infecting those people they live with/serve).
I don't get why people are acting as if people have no intention of taking precautions when things are opened up
Because people already aren't taking precautions when going out. The majority of people aren't wearing masks and a lot of people who live near me just ignore or forget about social distancing
If you believe in social distancing, you should be opposed to the masks, because, from everything I've seen, many people who wear them think that they're a magic immunity guard.
No mask and 6 feet away has got to be safer than wearing a mask and standing face to face.
The six feet guideline isn’t based on modern science.
What kind of stupid black and white logic is that? I'm pro masks and pro social distancing. I can't control stupid people
It's a question of whether results or optics are more important. You can still choose to wear a mask, but in my experience, it seems that people are more likely to ignore the distancing suggestions if they wear a mask. It's not just me, either; nearly every mask requirement also gets a plea: "Please stay away from each other too!" That's not simply because people like to talk.
most are taking heed here in chicago. masks aren't required outside but people tend to keep their distance from strangers when passing by on the street. masks are required inside businesses.
I still saw a few jabronis at Mariano's yesterday without masks. WTF is wrong with these people? Also, they were running low on meat.
" I don't get why people are acting as if people have no intention of taking precautions when things are opened up. "
Because I watched the governor have to shut down motorboating because idiots fishing wouldn't social distance... and then someone shot a security guard for requesting they wear a mask... and then some nutter wiped his nose on a Dollar store employee for asking where his mask was...
Without incentive - either financial or penal - lots and lots of people will not do what is right.
Because I watched the governor have to shut down motorboating because idiots fishing wouldn't social distance
While I've supported most of the governor's measures, boating was a dumb fight to pick. The evidence suggests that the virus is essentially transmitted indoors. Your risk of contracting it when outside is vastly smaller. She burned through a lot of political capital on this trivial issue.
All folks had to do was just fish with household members or maintain social distancing while fishing. It wouldn't have gotten banned.
...but folks couldn't handle it and then the DNR was having to hang out at launches dealing with hundreds violating , so it all got shut down.
This is definitely not why motorboat fishing was banned and then the ban was lifted a few weeks later. Same with golf.
The Governor made a mistake and reversed it because it wasn't based on anything but trying to do something for the sake of doing something.
Yes, it is.
They were having huge crowding problems at the Detroit River and Lake Erie launches, and were getting complaints from medical workers.
' "The DNR has received many reports about heavy use of boat launches across the state and the subsequent congregation of people at these launches in violation of social distancing requirements, and in a manner that threatens public health," the DNR wrote Friday on its website. '
I would like to live in a world where we don't punish Peter for a wrong committed by Paul. It is wrong to punish all boaters because of the challenges at other locations. The usual practice is to quartantine the sick and close dangerous locations not quarantine everyone and quaratine them some more because some people need direction from local management or law enforcement.
Yeah, yeah, there are some who won't wear masks... their loss. Stay away from them.
But that's not how the masks work. We wear, and desire that others wear, masks to prevent the spread. The masks help contain the droplets from spreading widely. They have not, however, been shown (other than N95 masks) to prevent the wearer from contracting the virus. The virus gets into our lungs through our mouth, nose and eyes.
If everyone wears masks, the likelihood of mass infection (via spreading the virus) goes down. Those who won't wear masks but are contagious defeat or put a significant dent in purpose of all wearing masks.
NO! We need big daddy government to tell us to wear masks (or not wear) and socially distance! It's irresponsible to go out and open things up. You're risking lives!!!
ALSO . . . We need to open up! If you disagree then you don't care about small business! How are people suppose to work and provide for their family? You're risking lives!
I don't care about small businesses (at all) during this pandemic. The government should give everyone money until it's safe to reopen, just like in civilized countries. How should they give everyone money, you ask? They should print it, or just go ahead and make it digital. Small businesses can reopen (with government support if necessary) in a few months. That's what sane countries will do.
They should print it, or just go ahead and make it digital.
Why would I value the US dollar if its supply is infinite and I get it for sitting around doing nothing?
The only reason fiat currency can function is that people believe that it has value, and the only reason that people believe that it has value is that they trust the government not to print more of it than justified by the country's economic production.
The current steps that have been taken are much, much riskier than anybody's really stating, but your idea is economic suicide.
Bravo! Nailed it J.
Bullshit. They've pumped trillions out to keep businesses in the black and the consumer price index is still going down. They can pump another 2 trillion out to keep individuals and states afloat without causing inflation. The supply doesn't have to be infinite. It just has to be generous.
Basically every country's production has gone in the toilet. The US doesn't exist in a vacuum. The dollar is stronger against the euro today than it was a year ago. And that's after printing an unprecedented amount of money. There is still a lot of room to go before you can cause inflation when the economy craters.
"I don't care about small businesses (at all)"
Sorry, but that is vile.
So is taking that one snippet out of the context of the entire post!
You must be running for office, or be in politics?
You wrote it, you can own it.
That person didn't write it. I wrote it. Literacy! It's important!
I also own it. I don't care at all about your business or any other small business right now, unless it's actually an essential business. You (qua human) should be given handouts by the government if you don't have savings to rely on. Your business can restart later. I'm very happy to stand by each of these sentences in context or separately.
Here's another one: if you care more about any small business than about human lives, not only is it you who is vile, but you would in that case be *so* vile that your judgments about whether others are vile are completely uninteresting, because you just aren't the kind of creature who understands morality well enough to engage with it.
i live in chicago. just went to a jiffy lube. the employees were wearing masks, put plastic on the seat in the car and had chairs set up 6 feet apart inside and outside. it's a nice day today.
so covid should have zero impact on them going forward. businesses and customers will adapt. some businesses will struggle; like sporting events and movie theaters.
and i washed my hands before i left the house and when i returned. i actually started doing that in the days leading up to the lockdown. it's just common sense.
JPC: Too many politicians and medical "experts" think we, the average Joe are too stupid to take care of ourselves. They must make these decisions for us- NOT!
If your decision only effected you, that would work fine. Unfortunately it doesn’t.
You OBVIOUSLY don't deal with the public much... do you...
I upvoted and your point total went from -5 to +6! I feel so powerful. (I know how voting works. It just seemed interesting that the early voters were negging you and then the more optimistic folks started weighing in.)
I miss when you could see the total number of up and down votes separately. I guess you lose that functionality when your cousin makes your website.
While being stuck in the 6th stage of HUEL.
New website sucks a bag of dicks. I'd take the old one that crashed and there was an app for any day.
Open the fucking gyms!
I was at the YMCA the day before they closed. It was great. 5 of us had the buidling to ourselves.