Could Michigan football play in an empty Big House this fall?
M Live is running this report this morning. Here is the lead-in:
A month ago, the idea would been unfathomable.
But with the novel coronavirus, or COVID-19, pandemic taking hold in the United States — prompting the White House to extend its social distancing guidelines through at least April, and several states, Michigan included, issuing stay-at-home orders — it’s no longer a far-fetched idea.
Could Michigan football play in an empty stadium this fall?
The topic has been brought by at least one administrator at a “high revenue-generating program,” according to a report last week from USA TODAY, while trying to budget for the next athletic year.
And it was brought up by Michigan’s own athletic director, Warde Manuel, last week on the “In the Trenches” podcast.
Yes, that is certainly one very real possibility.
No it won't happen. You would be exposing not only team and coaches but a significant number of people who would provide tv coverage. Let's hope by then we have a treatment or vaccine, but that would need to happen sooner than later or you won't have players conditioned and practiced in time.
FYI, we probably will not have a vaccine for at least a year. You CAN NOT rush vaccines. If there is even a tiny fraction of people (like 1 in 1000) who have an adverse reaction to the vaccine, then people will die and the public's trust is eroded in said vaccine and they won't take it. Vaccines need to be extensively tested over a long period of time, not just to rule out adverse reactions but also to make sure it works (and will continue to work against mutating strains of the virus).
6.8.0Agree with you 100%.
However I do think that IF an effective treatment (like if the plasma infusions are successful, not a novel drug) is identified there could be some middle ground with extensive testing for the virus if the people needed to make it happen. This does not feel likely, but it’s far enough out that I wouldn’t rule it out.
I think we need to be prepared for when we are in the back side of the curve and what that is going to look like (mass distribution of masks might be one strategy) so that we do not have a strong second wave.
I'm well aware of the timetable that is publicly stated, but you sometimes bend the rules when the situation demands it. I'm also aware that you don't want to create a situation where the cure is worse than the disease. The rules have already been bent for some vaccine makers to bypass animal trials and go directly to human trials that have already started because you have a situation that is so dire.
We really need people to trust this vaccine. If they rolled it out and there was significant adverse health reactions because of inadequate testing, that would set us back way more than a delay in the vaccine in the first place.
March 30th, 2020 at 10:27 AM ^
Obviously a vaccine needs to be relatively safe with emphasis on "relatively." If your morbidity/mortality from a virus that left unchecked is worse than the vaccine, it makes a case for vaccination. All vaccines/medications have risks. Read the contraindications/adverse reactions for any vaccine or medication on the planet. The PDR (Physician's Desk Reference) is a good place to start. Here's a link for influenza vaccine: https://www.pdr.net/drug-summary/fluvirin?druglabelid=452
A COVID-19 vaccine might not be administered to a 10 year old healthy child while it might be highly recommended for a 75 year old with significant health problems.
March 30th, 2020 at 11:36 AM ^
This 70 year old is volunteering for the human trial.
March 30th, 2020 at 12:40 PM ^
This one also.
March 30th, 2020 at 10:40 AM ^
You can't bend the rules on human trials. You don't want a vaccine that kills 2% of people who get it for a virus that kills 1% and you can't know that without full trials
March 30th, 2020 at 10:43 AM ^
I believe that was my point.
March 30th, 2020 at 10:05 AM ^
There is no flu vaccine... because it morphs every year into new strains....there won't be a covid vaccine either..rather, a yearly anti-body shot. Your local CVS will give them, along with the flu shot.
March 30th, 2020 at 10:42 AM ^
You may want to explain that to the CDC. They identify 9 different kinds https://www.cdc.gov/flu/prevent/different-flu-vaccines.htm
If it’s still severe enough to close sports to the public, the season is gonna be cancelled
Exactly even if fans aren’t at the game your still exposing the athletes coaches refs and other personnel working the game.
March 30th, 2020 at 10:04 AM ^
This is true, especially for college athletes from a narrative standpoint but from an actual virus spreading perspective it isn't really as true for the same reasons schools should actually be the last place to close and first to open rather than first to close and last to open. Once we get through this initial surge the way to mange this disease is with strong testing and contact tracing. It isn't going to be not a threat to the public for at least a year. If you have just players contract tracing of a case is still possible, if you have 100k fans in a stadium and someone is infected you are completely fucked.
That would be an interesting way to lose our highest annual attendance record for 21 of the last 22 seasons.
Let's get Dave Brandon back to get those "accurate" attendance counts
March 30th, 2020 at 11:11 AM ^
Speaking purely from a football standpoint, it wouldn't be the worst thing if we played all our games in empty stadiums with a first-year starting QB. Husky Stadium and Ohio Stadium are two of the loudest stadiums in the country. Even Spartan Stadium can get loud.
March 30th, 2020 at 12:13 PM ^
Decent chance that Michigan was going to lose that record this year anyway. Especially now that cash is tight.
Before the coronavirus pandemic swept ashore, I figured that the enthusiasm deficit Michigan has built after three years of horrible season finishes would combine with the terrible home schedule to seriously depress ticket sales and fan turnout.
So if nobody is allowed to come anyway, that would take care of that.
I’m not sure I understand this - if we aren’t allowed to have fans, obviously no one will count that against the attendance record. If we do have games, coming off 6 months of no sports, I’m quite confident the enthusiasm will be there.
Not likely. Players could infect one another in practice or in games through close contact just like in the NBA.
March 30th, 2020 at 10:06 AM ^
If we are waiting until the disease is eradicated to do anything again we won't be seeing any sports until 2022.
Well, If we're in a state of operations where gatherings like football can't take place, then schools will still likely be closed so...
I wouldn't be surprised at all if K-12 schools were still closed in the fall, or moved to online instruction only.
Football is not a sport conducive to distancing.
well, in candor, unfortunately sometimes our defense has been very good about 'distancing'.....
No. Either it will be too dangerous to have football, or it will be safe to have football. If there are still outbreaks come August, you can NOT have practice where 100+ guys are coughing, spitting, bleeding all over each other. If one guy is infected, the entire team will quickly become infected. Once a team is infected, they have to go into quarantine for at least two weeks. That potentially means 2 or 3 forfeited games and missing out on 2+ weeks of practice IN-season. Also there is the chance of teams giving it to each other in games and spreading this shit state to state, with multiple teams then having to go into quarantine and forfeit games/miss practice.
There is little to no chance we will have a football season. This sucks. It's time everyone accepted this possibility.
^^I think MichCali has it right.
I believe the bigger worry is will people want to pack the stadium? On one hand you have the "bars, hookers, vegas, party like it's 1999" crew who won't think twice (and I get it) because we've been stuck at home. On the other hand...I think a whole lot of people are just going to hang tight. Think about how many of the older crowd go to CFB games...are they really going to want to be around all those people?
I'm in the headspace that we're going to have to sacrifice many things in the face of this. As dearly as I love Michigan, I would love ending the spread of coronavirus more than anything that can happen in sports.
No college football season. NFL maybe in empty stadiums. Baseball is also done.
Aside from the concern for the two teams involved, the officiating crew, the support people around both teams, a medical crew (always present at every game), and maybe TV peeps, there are issues with that many people traveling though airports. You think Michigan will bus to Washington state to play a game?
LOL!!
Unless everything is lifted and back to normal, there will be no football this year. It's early yet, it could happen. But I kind'a doubt it...
On the bright side, at least we're not losing to OSU again this year.
Plus, the game is in Columbus, so we would Notre Dame them and get back to back games in Ann Arbor, assuming the league did not mess with future schedules.
March 30th, 2020 at 10:51 AM ^
That's a giant assumption you're making.
don't forget msu did it to us in '13 and '14 too.
In all seriousness, I think that if this season got canceled, they would just shift everything a year. Like this year's exact schedule would be played next year. If the NCAA mandated that, then everyone would do the same thing and it would work...assuming no other scheduling conflicts arose.
The B1G is who screwed us on two straight in EL.
Too many contracts would have to get realigned - the NCAA doesn't schedule games, schools and conferences do. And 2021 schedules are already finalized. I would imagine that 2020 would have one of those historical footnotes like "No games played due to World War II".
The notion that it’s so unsafe to congregate in numbers that spectators wouldn’t be allowed but at the same time it's safe enough for players to be in close physical contact in the locker rooms, workout facilities, and practice fields is magical thinking of the highest order.
Unless we are lucky enough to have a large number of things go extremely right in the next five months—including the large-scale availability of an effective vaccine—football is not happening.
I know right?
As of yesterday we are capital F Fucked in terms of returning to something resembling “normal.” Hope everyone likes “hiking” alone in semi-closed unkept parks.
What happened yesterday that changed everything? Nothing got particularly worse than the day before.
Deaths were almost cut in half. Dropped from 525 on Saturday to 264 on Sunday.
I know this is serious, but the mortality rate isn't anything like the 1918 flu so many want to bring up. Everyone talks out of both side of their mouths when it comes to COVID-19. They cite the current high mortality rate while also saying that this virus is so infectious it has spread to hundreds of thousands or millions we don't even know about. If it has spread like that, that inherently means that the mortality rate is far below what we see with deaths vs confirmed cases.
Here they make an assumption the current IFR is 0.26%, so it's not that much worse than the common flu. https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/global-covid-19-case-fatality-rates/
If this was 1918, who's to say it wouldn't be as bad as the Spanish flu. Can't really compare 2020 to 1918. It's one of those comparisons that don't make sense to me as we have 100+ more years of knowledge, doctors, science and technology.
March 30th, 2020 at 10:12 AM ^
That drop in deaths is the best news I’ve seen. Here’s to hoping it is a trend, not a one day anomoly.
March 30th, 2020 at 10:18 AM ^
But this good news does not explain Ijohnb declaring yesterday the day we were fucked with a capital F - that is what I’m curious about.
March 30th, 2020 at 12:27 PM ^
Blue in dc, this is a political war first and a public health war as a distant second. I am a lifetime liberal who is truly shocked at how radicalized the left has become. I will never vote for a democrat again. If this was really about public health people would be looking at facts, only facts, and see that we are canceling our culture based on rhetoric that does not align with reality. Trump caved yesterday, and we went from months to years before we may possibly be able to put this country back together. I am hoping to preserve some semblance of liberty for my kids right now, that’s all.
March 30th, 2020 at 12:04 PM ^
While it is still a drop, updated numbers for yesterday are now 362
Thank you for updating. I had not seen that yet.
I've socially distanced myself from checking on this stuff too often.
I finished reading this in early February before the shit hit the fan here. Highly recommend it.
While I don't think COVID-19 will prove to be as lethal as the 1918 flu, its easy transmissibility makes it more than serious enough to screw things up in a major way.
It simply isn’t trending like that though. The rhetoric does not match the reality. We are in real true double-think territory now.