2019-20 Hoops Preview: The Story, Predictions, Tonight's Preview
Previously: (Rather Early) Season Preview Podcast (post-Franz-injury update in last week's Ace Pod), Big Ten Tiers Part One, Big Ten Tiers Part Two, Position Preview: Definitely Guards, Position Preview: Wings, Position Preview: Bigs, Five Questions/Five Answers
Tonight: Appalachian State
WHAT | #21 Michigan (0-0) vs #203 Appalachian State (0-0) |
---|---|
WHERE | Crisler Center Ann Arbor, MI |
WHEN | 7 PM |
LINE | Michigan -18, 96% to win (KenPom) Michigan -20.5, 96% to win (Torvik) |
TV | BTN |
Juwan Howard isn't the only coach making his debut for a new team tonight at Crisler. Appalachian State fired Jim Fox after an 11-21 season capped a five-year tenure in which he never finished above .500 in the Sun Belt.
His replacement is Dustin Kerns, who's in his third year as a head coach; his first two were spent taking Presbyterian from a 5-25 record the year before his arrival to a 20-16 mark last season while breaking a six-year program streak of finishing in the 300s on KenPom (#179! Skipped the 200s entirely!). That's a very good time to find greener pastures.
Kerns runs a very three-point heavy offensive system; Presbyterian was 14th in 3PA/FGA last year and 25th in 3P%. The Mountaineers return a high-volume gunner in guard James Forrest, who used 29% of their possessions last year with 44/35/73 (2P%/3P%/FT%) shooting splits and a free-throw rate approaching 50. Unless a freshman breaks out, though, it doesn't look like anyone else is a major volume scoring threat from the outside, and Michigan has Zavier Simpson to cut down Forrest's production.
KenPom predicts an 18-point win. Bart Torvik ups the ante to 20.5. As long as there isn't a huge gap in three-point shooting, this should be a comfortable victory, even though Appalachian State is friskier than M's usual early-season cannon-fodder by virtue of projecting towards the top of the 200s instead of being truly bottom-barrel.
[Hit THE JUMP for this year's story and predictions of all varieties.]
The Story: This Is Going To Be Different
it's gonna take a while to get used to things [Campredon]
I still don't feel like talking or writing about either of them.
One is John Beilein's sudden departure. Despite his dalliance with the Pistons last year, I was not emotionally prepared for the best coach in program history to decide his time here was over after coming so close to a national championship not once but twice. I wasn't writing at the time. It was a relief not to feel obligated to put together a farewell post. Covering his teams has been my favorite part of this job; I thought that'd still be waiting for me if and when I came back.
The other is my time off. I've been mostly absent for over a year now because of my health, and there were some bumps along the way that were unexpected even by my standards, some of which have had a lasting impact on my physical and mental health. I'm back to writing and podcasting but am still ramping up to full-time work, and it's going to take a different form than it did before. I'm working entirely from home now, mgopodcast tapings excepted, and depending on how my body responds to treatment that may be my new normal. It's a very different experience writing about games from home than covering them in person, and while there are some advantages to recapping from the couch, I miss press row and the excitement of being in Crisler for big games and asking the occasional press conference question to a Hall of Fame-level coach. I never wrote an "I'm back" post because I don't truly feel back yet, and I may have to get comfortable with the idea that never happens.
But I can look forward. It's legitimately cool to see Juwan Howard coaching Michigan basketball. He's built up excitement for his tenure before his team has played a game, largely by getting the program in the mix for several top-flight prospects and landing a commitment from five-star Isaiah Todd. He's moving the team to a faster, NBA-style system that should be pleasing to watch. There's a lot to like about this year's team, headlined by seniors at point guard and center, and future squads should only get more talented. There's a chance, though by no means a guarantee, that hiring Howard and focusing on obvious NBA talent is what Michigan needed to solidify their status as a perennial title contender.
Meanwhile, I'm writing about basketball again, and that feels right no matter where my laptop rests. I'm not ready for everything, but I'm ready for Simpson-Teske pick-and-rolls, Isaiah Livers spot-up threes, the emergence of the next Wagner, salty defense, and behemoth lineups. It's going to look different, both on the court and in this space, but I'm cautiously optimistic that things are going to work out in a way that's satisfying.
Onwards.
Predictions Of All Varieties
Still the league's best matchup. [Campredon]
ALL BIG-TEN FIRST TEAM
G Cassius Winston, MSU
G Zavier Simpson, U-M
F Lamar Stevens, PSU
F Xavier Tillman, MSU
C Jon Teske, U-M
ALL BIG-TEN SECOND TEAM
G Anthony Cowan, MD
G Ayo Dosunmu, ILL
G Joe Wieskamp, IA
F Jalen Smith, MD
C Kaleb Wesson, OSU
CONFERENCE PLAYER OF THE YEAR
Winston
CONFERENCE COACH OF THE YEAR
Matt Painter, Purdue
CONFERENCE DEFENSIVE PLAYER OF THE YEAR
Simpson
CONFERENCE FRESHMAN OF THE YEAR
DJ Carton, OSU
FIVE OPPORTUNITIES FOR ME TO LOOK SILLY
- Brandon Johns quickly usurps Adrien Nunez for a starting spot, shifting Livers down to the three and giving M an enormous lineup when Franz Wagner returns. Johns averages an efficient eight points and five boards per game.
- Jon Teske forces his way into first-team all-conference by upping his averages across the board. While still a better defensive player than offensive player, the gap closes considerably.
- Wagner averages 14 points per game with >40% three-point shooting, but is nipped for the team scoring lead by Livers.
- The team finishes ~45th in adjusted offense and ~10th in adjusted defense. Both marks improve as the season wears on after some early hiccups.
- Michigan finishes 20-11 (11-9 Big Ten), fifth in the conference, and gets a five-seed in the NCAA tournament. Zavier Simpson refuses to let Michigan lose to MSU in Crisler. They make it out of the first weekend but lose in the Sweet 16 when their shooting gives out.
November 5th, 2019 at 3:20 PM ^
That plausible
Jamie Hyneman
November 5th, 2019 at 3:23 PM ^
I would take that for a first year. Here’s hoping for the best. Looking forward to the game tonight.
Good luck Coach Howard!
November 5th, 2019 at 3:26 PM ^
So difficult for me to form an expectation for the team this season. There'll definitely be some growing pains, but we have some experienced guys that have been around the block. How does Howard handle in game adjustments? I just know that I'm thrilled to see him back at Michigan and it would be really soul crushing to watch him fail. I know he'll put the work in and do everything he can to keep this program rolling. His teams will play hard for him and his passion for the sport will rub off on his players. I just wonder how big of an adjustment the transition to college will be for him. Can't wait to watch this season!
November 5th, 2019 at 5:05 PM ^
Negative Nancy. How hard will the transition from NN to BW to I always knew he’d be successful be?!!!
November 5th, 2019 at 3:33 PM ^
A massive lineup with Wagner at the 2 is very intriguing.
November 5th, 2019 at 3:36 PM ^
The most similar teams I could fine that were close to a profile of 45/10 from last year in ADJD/O were:
FSU (38 AdjO, 12AdjD) - 4 seed.
Florida (55 O, 15 D) - 10 seed
Iowa St (9 O, 55 D) - 6 seed
LSU (10 O, 56 D) - 3 seed
Then 2018 I found:
Clemson (52 O, 8 D) - 5 seed
North Carolina (8 O, 51 D) - 2 seed, pays to be a blue blood
I'm personally expecting bigger defensive transition costs than others, so I'd guess more 50/15. Which would put Michigan around top 30th overall, so let's go with an 8 seed.
November 5th, 2019 at 3:40 PM ^
At first, I thought 11 losses seemed like a lot for a 5-seed, but then I looked at last year's bracket and Wisconsin & Mississippi St both had 11 losses. Of course, both lost in the first round, so that's probably why I don't remember them being 5-seeds.
November 5th, 2019 at 3:42 PM ^
31-0 and first overall 1 seed.
November 5th, 2019 at 3:50 PM ^
Ace, thanks for the update. Welcome back to doing what you love. In any form, having purpose is central to one's life. I hope the upward trend continues.
Hoops will be bumpy this year, but a guy with character like Juwan deserves to succeed. Go Blue!
November 5th, 2019 at 4:01 PM ^
Welcome back officially, Ace! These preview posts have me so fired up for the game tonight and the season.
November 5th, 2019 at 4:03 PM ^
Those are bravely specific predictions. I'm also a bit fearful they may be optimistic.
I think around 45th in offense seems possible, but I think the defensive dropoff is more. I'd be happy with anywhere from a 5-7 seed.
In completely safe, not-at-all brave predictions, I predict Zavier Simpson will end up being my favorite UM basketball player of the last 25 years.
November 5th, 2019 at 4:12 PM ^
I mean if we look at the guys they lost only Matthews was an above average defender, so the major defensive pieces are all back for the most part. I think expecting about the same caliber of defense when you got a great defensive PG at the top, with a couple of shot blockers behind him is pretty reasonable. Teske and Simpson are easily the best defensive combo in the conference.
November 5th, 2019 at 4:23 PM ^
Matthews was the best of the bunch though. We could stick him on the best opposition wing and know he would make them extremely inefficient. Also I think Poole and especially Iggy were better defenders than you give them credit for. Brooks will be an upgrade on Poole, but Livers is a downgrade on Matthews and Johns/Castleton are downgrades on Livers/Iggy. Plus changing systems will bring some potential issues.
November 5th, 2019 at 5:11 PM ^
Iggy maybe. Poole was okay when motivated which was rare. The other times he was a defensive liability. Now if Nunez plays large minutes, that may be effectively neutral. But if it's Brooks, Livers and Johns that may be equal to Poole, Matthews and Iggy/Livers.
Don't get me wrong, I liked watching Poole play and he was a shot maker but defense really wasn't his thing.
November 5th, 2019 at 4:07 PM ^
Opening with App State? I see someone in the scheduling dept. has a twisted sense of humor
November 5th, 2019 at 4:26 PM ^
The Johns for Nunez swap will hopefully start tonight and a line 8/5 for Johns would be nice, but I'm hoping there may be even more upside in there this year.
November 5th, 2019 at 4:32 PM ^
Ace covering UM hoops = Michigan sports' fan nirvana.
Great job Ace and keep up the good work!
November 5th, 2019 at 4:47 PM ^
Why the fuck do we keep scheduling App State in anything? It's like the AD thinks The Horror is some fond memory Michigan fans want to be reminded of over and over.
November 5th, 2019 at 5:08 PM ^
We can avoid playing this school in all sports until the end of time . . . or we can choose to no longer be traumatized by that game. It was 12 years ago, and that team lost three other games that season.
November 5th, 2019 at 5:13 PM ^
Maybe we should play Air Force? Or Army?
November 6th, 2019 at 4:23 PM ^
What offense do their hoops teams run? Triple option?
November 7th, 2019 at 8:17 AM ^
Urban Meyer lost to the UM team that lost to Appalachian State.
Boom. Roasted.
November 5th, 2019 at 5:39 PM ^
I'll take it.
November 5th, 2019 at 5:56 PM ^
Excited to start the season. Not a lot of clear cut answers but a whole lot of potential ones.
November 5th, 2019 at 6:15 PM ^
Veritable Wowness...
Just watched my 1st Coach Howard press-con. Dude reeks Stud.
Strong sensing of Strength, coded thusly: Mr. Juwan Howard is an elite human being.
It may take awhile to build a champion, but I have no doubt the players will run through walls for the Man.
Looking forward...
November 5th, 2019 at 6:21 PM ^
Welcome back, Ace. I think I'll take your predictions as gospel.
November 5th, 2019 at 7:05 PM ^
Seems optimistic. I think just getting to the tournament would be a big accomplishment. Also, I don’t see this team beating Staee unfortunately.
November 5th, 2019 at 7:53 PM ^
Ace, it's great to have you back as much as you can and want to be back. I can't imagine reading about this season without you writing about it.
November 5th, 2019 at 9:30 PM ^
Win the Game.
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