Previously: (Rather Early) Season Preview Podcast (post-Franz-injury update in last week's Ace Pod), Big Ten Tiers Part One, Big Ten Tiers Part Two, Position Preview: Definitely Guards, Position Preview: Wings, Position Preview: Bigs, Five Questions/Five Answers

Tonight: Appalachian State

Juwan Howard isn't the only coach making his debut for a new team tonight at Crisler. Appalachian State fired Jim Fox after an 11-21 season capped a five-year tenure in which he never finished above .500 in the Sun Belt.

His replacement is Dustin Kerns, who's in his third year as a head coach; his first two were spent taking Presbyterian from a 5-25 record the year before his arrival to a 20-16 mark last season while breaking a six-year program streak of finishing in the 300s on KenPom (#179! Skipped the 200s entirely!). That's a very good time to find greener pastures.

Kerns runs a very three-point heavy offensive system; Presbyterian was 14th in 3PA/FGA last year and 25th in 3P%. The Mountaineers return a high-volume gunner in guard James Forrest, who used 29% of their possessions last year with 44/35/73 (2P%/3P%/FT%) shooting splits and a free-throw rate approaching 50. Unless a freshman breaks out, though, it doesn't look like anyone else is a major volume scoring threat from the outside, and Michigan has Zavier Simpson to cut down Forrest's production.

KenPom predicts an 18-point win. Bart Torvik ups the ante to 20.5. As long as there isn't a huge gap in three-point shooting, this should be a comfortable victory, even though Appalachian State is friskier than M's usual early-season cannon-fodder by virtue of projecting towards the top of the 200s instead of being truly bottom-barrel.

[Hit THE JUMP for this year's story and predictions of all varieties.]

The Story: This Is Going To Be Different

​it's gonna take a while to get used to things [Campredon]

I still don't feel like talking or writing about either of them.

One is John Beilein's sudden departure. Despite his dalliance with the Pistons last year, I was not emotionally prepared for the best coach in program history to decide his time here was over after coming so close to a national championship not once but twice. I wasn't writing at the time. It was a relief not to feel obligated to put together a farewell post. Covering his teams has been my favorite part of this job; I thought that'd still be waiting for me if and when I came back.

The other is my time off. I've been mostly absent for over a year now because of my health, and there were some bumps along the way that were unexpected even by my standards, some of which have had a lasting impact on my physical and mental health. I'm back to writing and podcasting but am still ramping up to full-time work, and it's going to take a different form than it did before. I'm working entirely from home now, mgopodcast tapings excepted, and depending on how my body responds to treatment that may be my new normal. It's a very different experience writing about games from home than covering them in person, and while there are some advantages to recapping from the couch, I miss press row and the excitement of being in Crisler for big games and asking the occasional press conference question to a Hall of Fame-level coach. I never wrote an "I'm back" post because I don't truly feel back yet, and I may have to get comfortable with the idea that never happens.

But I can look forward. It's legitimately cool to see Juwan Howard coaching Michigan basketball. He's built up excitement for his tenure before his team has played a game, largely by getting the program in the mix for several top-flight prospects and landing a commitment from five-star Isaiah Todd. He's moving the team to a faster, NBA-style system that should be pleasing to watch. There's a lot to like about this year's team, headlined by seniors at point guard and center, and future squads should only get more talented. There's a chance, though by no means a guarantee, that hiring Howard and focusing on obvious NBA talent is what Michigan needed to solidify their status as a perennial title contender.

Meanwhile, I'm writing about basketball again, and that feels right no matter where my laptop rests. I'm not ready for everything, but I'm ready for Simpson-Teske pick-and-rolls, Isaiah Livers spot-up threes, the emergence of the next Wagner, salty defense, and behemoth lineups. It's going to look different, both on the court and in this space, but I'm cautiously optimistic that things are going to work out in a way that's satisfying.

Onwards.

Predictions Of All Varieties

Still the league's best matchup. [Campredon]​

ALL BIG-TEN FIRST TEAM

G Cassius Winston, MSU
G Zavier Simpson, U-M
F Lamar Stevens, PSU
F Xavier Tillman, MSU
C Jon Teske, U-M

ALL BIG-TEN SECOND TEAM

G Anthony Cowan, MD
G Ayo Dosunmu, ILL
G Joe Wieskamp, IA
F Jalen Smith, MD
C Kaleb Wesson, OSU

CONFERENCE PLAYER OF THE YEAR

Winston

CONFERENCE COACH OF THE YEAR

Matt Painter, Purdue

CONFERENCE DEFENSIVE PLAYER OF THE YEAR

Simpson

CONFERENCE FRESHMAN OF THE YEAR

DJ Carton, OSU

FIVE OPPORTUNITIES FOR ME TO LOOK SILLY

1. Brandon Johns quickly usurps Adrien Nunez for a starting spot, shifting Livers down to the three and giving M an enormous lineup when Franz Wagner returns. Johns averages an efficient eight points and five boards per game.
2. Jon Teske forces his way into first-team all-conference by upping his averages across the board. While still a better defensive player than offensive player, the gap closes considerably.
3. Wagner averages 14 points per game with >40% three-point shooting, but is nipped for the team scoring lead by Livers.
4. The team finishes ~45th in adjusted offense and ~10th in adjusted defense. Both marks improve as the season wears on after some early hiccups.
5. Michigan finishes 20-11 (11-9 Big Ten), fifth in the conference, and gets a five-seed in the NCAA tournament. Zavier Simpson refuses to let Michigan lose to MSU in Crisler. They make it out of the first weekend but lose in the Sweet 16 when their shooting gives out.