2018 v 2016: Where do you see this year’s team in comparison?
The 2016 team was an extremely talented and experienced group. Evidence to that is the amount of draft picks that contributed to that team. My question is: how do you compare, position by position this year’s team to 2016?
Personally I have 2018 being better at the: QB, RB, WR2, Slot, TE #2, LG, SDE, MLB, CB #2, one of the safeties, and K
Even to 2016: FB, RT, WDE, and Viper
Weaker than 2016: WR #1, TE #1, LT, C, RG, both DT, ILB, CB #1, S, P.
Preseason wise how do you expect this roster to hold up to 2016?
August 12th, 2018 at 12:01 AM ^
I’ve long held this 2018 is better, and I think the only position group 2016 will have an edge in by the end of this year is safety.
August 12th, 2018 at 12:05 AM ^
100% agree. Safety and maybe but hopefully not OL. I think receiving game will be a very pleasant improvement from 2017 and comparable to 2016.
August 12th, 2018 at 12:06 AM ^
I hope you’re right. My prediction is based just on how I anticipate(d) the teams going into the season. Could DPJ or Black be as or more productive than Darboh? Maybe, I hope. OL as a whole is a wildcard. Same with DTs, in comparison to 2016 where the DTs were known commodities. Lastly, the thought of Hill/Long being as good as Lewis is daunting, but surely possible.
I will say though, the QB and RB positions are significantly better going into 18 than they were in 16
August 12th, 2018 at 12:42 AM ^
Darboh was good, but he wasn't Braylon or Terrell. Steady, not spectacular. And Chesson was disappointing in 06.
Both DPJ and Black SHOULD be better than Chesson, and I think at least as good as Darboh. Especially if Shea can hit them as has been hinted.
August 12th, 2018 at 12:04 PM ^
Yep yep yep. Darboh was a B+ guy, Chesson regressed from 15 to 16. Black and DPJ SHOULD pass them.
August 12th, 2018 at 11:47 AM ^
If the QB is way better, the WRs are going to look better too
August 13th, 2018 at 11:39 AM ^
This. When Chesson had Rudock he was a deep ball threat who was put into position to make some great plays. Speight with the same player, but a year matured, was not able to find Chesson nearly as much or put the ball in a place to let him make as many plays.
Patterson is going to be a massive difference maker for us in this regard.
August 12th, 2018 at 12:38 PM ^
Until they prove it, no way is Michigan better off at the receiver position, any of them, than it was two years ago. In fact, that offensive team was probably better at most every position considering the pass blocking in the backfield that protected Speight, if only because of De Veon Smith.
Curiously, we now have the older version of two of our backs from the 2016 team, but neither have shown great development as backfield blockers and picking up stunts or blitzers. And quite honestly, the reason the 2016 team didn't win at season's end, had more to do with protection issues and qb performance just as this offensive team must prove this year against a more difficult road schedule against our rivals.
And clearly that offense is coming off a very limited, unproductive season. On paper, this year's team looks highly promising at most every position outside of OL, with experience alone expecting to raise the level of performance at most key spots. But until that performance upgrade happens, there is no way I commit to expecting more than what was delivered by the 2016 team on offense.
Defense, however, I am expecting to be better this year than 2016 even with Peppers as the wild card. He was a difference maker on both sides of the ball, which this year's team lacks. But the promise of this year's defense cannot be overhyped, and I fully expect it to reach or exceed the sky high expectations most have for it.
August 12th, 2018 at 4:49 PM ^
Peppers was a difference maker on returns, but as far as "both sides of the ball" goes...he was a negative difference maker when he lined up on offense (except for against Rutgers).
August 12th, 2018 at 12:13 AM ^
Right on. I thought about saying TE because Butt but McKeon, Gentry and Eubanks all beat out older versions of that year's #2 Flex (Bunting) and the remaining Kaiju.
August 12th, 2018 at 12:59 AM ^
I agree. The 2016 safeties were better. I think the 2016 two deep DL was better.
August 12th, 2018 at 7:35 AM ^
Asked this morning about shoes. Sounds like most of the guys being fingered are no longer here. Just got back from a wedding and have not seen if this is posted anywhere. Sounds like worst case scenario is only a couple current players and even that is not confirmed.
TI, KW, KC, and RJ were all being thrown about.
Cheers
August 12th, 2018 at 8:02 AM ^
Thanks! Got KW and Kc, but who are Rj and Ti?
August 12th, 2018 at 8:48 AM ^
An upright runner of good size that had a few good performances.
August 12th, 2018 at 8:52 AM ^
Ty Isaac.
RoJo coming back to haunt us again?
August 12th, 2018 at 8:56 AM ^
RJ is two possibilities?
August 12th, 2018 at 12:02 AM ^
Feel better about the defense than I did going into 16.
feel worse about the offense
feel worse about the schedule
August 12th, 2018 at 12:46 AM ^
The offense this year is more talented and has a much higher upside. It's young, and the OL is a worry. But the OL was a problem in 2016, too.
August 12th, 2018 at 1:28 AM ^
The OL has been a weak link for a long time. That has to get fixed to win the big games.
August 12th, 2018 at 9:05 AM ^
Especially in the Orange Bowl against Florida State. The Oline really struggled to allow Speight to get anytime needed.
August 13th, 2018 at 12:54 AM ^
The thing is, OL makes everything go. They have to make holes for RBs and give QBs and WRs time to get open and throw.
It'll take a much better coaching job and some Shea magic for this offense to go from 85th (!!!) in S&P+ last year to something approaching good.
I'm hopeful but also realistic given the challenges.
August 12th, 2018 at 12:05 AM ^
I am not sure if we would see a drop off on WR #1. Experience is an issue but I think there is a higher ceiling and I believe it will at least be even
August 12th, 2018 at 3:27 PM ^
If any of the QBs could have hit DPJ on the many instances of him being wide open down field, his stats would be a lot better and we would all feel a lot better about the WRs.
August 12th, 2018 at 12:06 AM ^
Games aren't played on paper but i don't think there is any question that the 2018 roster is better.
August 12th, 2018 at 12:16 AM ^
2018 team is better and i expect a conference championship and playoff berth, tough schedule be damned.
August 12th, 2018 at 12:30 AM ^
Lol try to beat ND first. And maybe not lose to your both your rivals, again.
August 12th, 2018 at 1:13 AM ^
ToBe's really not a part of our family. Also he's divorced, so he's really not a part of his family either.
August 12th, 2018 at 8:24 PM ^
Brutal
August 12th, 2018 at 8:49 AM ^
Our coach isn’t an enabler of spouse abuse. He was also the reason Hernandez is a murderer. Your coach and fanbase are morally bankrupt
August 12th, 2018 at 9:08 AM ^
OSu grad wisdom: "If you want to win them all, try to win the first one and then not lose the others."
Deep. Really deep. For a Buckeye.
August 12th, 2018 at 1:39 AM ^
I love your optimism! One of those things hasn't happened in 14 years and the other has yet to happen, but it's gotta happen sometime, right.
August 12th, 2018 at 12:34 PM ^
Don’t you have some domestic abuse to be enabling or something?
August 12th, 2018 at 12:23 AM ^
OL this season probably will not be as good as 2016
LB this season will be better.
DL will be a draw or slightly better than 2016.
QB could be better than 2016.
RB will be better or should be better.
WR could be as good as 2016.
TEs should be equal or better.
special teams about equal.
Secondary may improve to be close to 2016.
August 12th, 2018 at 9:17 AM ^
You honestly think the tight ends this year are going to be better than Jake Butt? Because he was the best tight end in the nation that year.
August 12th, 2018 at 12:34 AM ^
The 2016 schedule wasn't a cake walk but it didnt scare me nearly as much as the 2018 schedule.
August 12th, 2018 at 1:17 AM ^
Going into the season, no it didn’t look that bad (considering both rivals on the road). Colorado was light years better than what anyone expected, Penn St turns out had a ton of talent, and Wisconsin was an 11 win NY6 champion.
August 12th, 2018 at 1:26 AM ^
True. However, the PSU we played was not who they turned out to be, and we had more flat-out cupcakes. Road against Iowa was tough, but we play at ND this year, and MSU is much better than two years ago--with Northwestern a dangerous trap game.
And we get strings like Wisconsin-MSU back-to-back, with PSU following a bye. Even in my best-case-scenario hopes for this team, which are pretty crazy good (see below), I can't see any way that isn't a brutal test.
My hope is that the team is so good that it doesn't matter, but realistically only Alabama can hand-wave those kinds of stretches, and even they struggle.
August 12th, 2018 at 7:56 AM ^
If the 2016 schedule was more difficult in retrospect, that means the 2018 schedule is subject to change as well. It is highly doubtful that when the year is done there will still be five top 12 teams on our schedule.
Personally, I think ND takes a big step back, and MSU is capped at ten wins (they should have been an eight or nine win team last year). I think Michigan, OSU, and Wisconsin inflict a lot of losses on the other teams
August 12th, 2018 at 12:39 AM ^
My hope and my expectation: 2018 has considerably better talent, but less experience, particularly on offense.
The 2016 team had good but not great offensive talent. Chesson and Darboh were a good pair of receivers with some flaws, but as seniors they were refined and smart. Deveon Smith was a pretty good RB rather than a gamebreaker, but with experience blocked well and generally got all of the yards available on his runs. The OL at that point was known not to be as good as their recruiting ratings, but was very experienced and steady in most situations.
But the offensive talent was limited. Chesson could run fast in a straight line, but his routes weren't impressive and he was awful at adjusting to the ball in the air. Speight was only ok, and except for one pass against Wisconsin the passing game was not explosive at all. And in the crucial moments when the team needed to gain yards on the ground and the opponent knew it, the OL simply could not answer the call.
On defense, the DL was every bit as scary as this year's, and Jourdain Lewis and Jabrill Peppers were as good as you can get at their positions.
But the LBs this year should be significantly better, and the #2 corner will be a prospect to go to the NFL. However, again, everybody is young.
2016 was "the year" because Harbaugh needed to show progress and the talent was experienced. This year is the year because Harbaugh needs to prove he can be elite so that he can recruit like it, and because this is easily the most talented Michigan team since the Carr years with a chance to be better than any of Carr's talent collections.
Patterson appears to be the clear starter. We have no idea how good he'll be, but he SHOULD be a significant upgrade from the Speight/O'Korn/Young Peters carrousel. We have incredible talent at every pass catching position, gamebreaking stuff. We have very good talent at RB (they're not Chubb and Michel, probably, but it's the best RB situation Michigan has had since Mike Hart). And the defense should be a top 3 group nationally, totally elite
It should be better. It needs to be with this schedule. The OL is the big, massive black hole of doubt in all this, and in Harbaugh's fourth year Hoke can no longer be held responsible for it. Now is the time to win.
It could happen. If it comes together in camp we could beat ND by 3 touchdowns, seriously. If it's a struggle things may improve significantly through the season and everything is still in play.
But if Harbaugh can't produce a good offense with this group he never will. It's time to score and it's time to win.
August 12th, 2018 at 1:03 AM ^
I mostly agree with you, except for the DL and Viper. The 2016 DL was very good, but not elite. Wormley could be great, but he'd disappear too often. Taco started slow but was very good in the 2nd half of the season. Glasgow was great inside, but Godin was just fine, Mone wasn't great, and Hurst was still a back up, though very good. Gary/Winovich should be much better throughout the season than Taco/Wormley, and I have high hopes for Solomon and Dwumfour inside, at least better than Godin/Glasgow. Plus RS senior Mone and Kemp has gotten good reviews.
And everyone thought Peppers would be hard to replace, but in many ways Hudson was better last year than Peppers and he has another year experience.
Also, no one wants to say that Hill or Long could be better than Lewis, but Lewis has said Hill and Thomas were better than him at that stage, and Long had a ridiculous passer rating against according to PFF. Not saying they will be better than Lewis, but it's not unfathomable.
August 12th, 2018 at 1:15 AM ^
I think it's possible that Hill and Long are both as good as Lewis, but I have a hard time believing either will be better. Whichever one considers the second-best will be a considerable bump over the still-very-good Stribling that we saw most of 16.
I think you're underrating the DL, but those are interesting arguments. However, your remark about Hudson vs Peppers continues a bizarre trend of baseless dimunition of Peppers by Michigan fans for... some reason.
Peppers was a massively explosive and dominant player at his position. He didn't just make offensive edge plays problematic; he destroyed them. He was aggressive and smart and terrifying to opposing offenses.
Hudson is quite good, but he's not Peppers, and it's no insult to him to say so.
Someone might argue that Peppers never had a game like Hudson had against Minnesota: Of course not--any team leaving Peppers unblocked like that would have thrown that play out of their playbook, because Peppers would have killed them. He changed whole gameplans in a way Hudson does not.
Again, that's no disrespect to Hudson. We aren't pretending that Lewis or Hill or Long are Charles Woodson, either.
August 12th, 2018 at 10:07 AM ^
I'm not saying Peppers was bad by any stretch, and he's a far superior athlete to Hudson. But Peppers was hurt by having to play so many roles to make up for the lack of athleticism on that 2016 team. He was playing a new position in a new defense while also spending time learning some offense and practicing KR/PR. Meanwhile, Hudson had 2 years in the same system and focused on learning only 1 position during that time.
August 12th, 2018 at 7:26 AM ^
Spot on with everything, must win year for recruiting too. I feel optimistic this year for the run game being best in years with the massive o-line who I think runyan-bredeson-Ruiz-onwenu-jbb, elite deep defense and with a good run game and a qb that can make some plays sky is limit for this team
August 12th, 2018 at 12:50 AM ^
TL:DR - Offense will be better - OL slightly worse but I'm guessing some breakouts from skill positions.
Defense will be about same - Slightly less depth on DL and safeties aren't as good, but CB group and LBs are better.
Offense
QB - Shea>>Speight
RB - Higdon>Smith
WR - DPJ, Tarik, Perry > Darboh, Chesson, Perry
TE - Gentry, McKeon = Butt, Asiasi
LT - JBB/Hudson << Braden
LG - 2018 Bredeson > 2016 Bredeson
C - Ruiz = Cole
RG - Onwenu/Spanellis > Kalis
RT - Runyun < Magnuson
Defense
SDE - Gary > Wormley
Nose - Solomon < Glasgow
3T - Dwumfor < Mo/Godin
WDE - Chase = Taco
Will - Ross (?) = McCray
Mike - Bush > Gedeon
Viper - Khaleke = Peppers
CB - Hill + Long > Lewis + Strib
FS - Kinnel < Thomas
SS - Metellus < Hill
August 12th, 2018 at 1:07 AM ^
You're giving the edge to a lot of 2018 people who haven't proven much. Ruiz equal to Cole? Come on. Hopefully Shea is better than Speight but we don't know and 2016 Speight was undefeated when healthy.
Gary over Wormley is even a stretch. Wormley was a monster, and I know Gary had the recruiting hype and stuff but assuming he's an upgrade over 2016 Wormley is still just projection. And I think Winovich's ceiling might be 2016 Taco, but again, I think that optimistic. You say Ross, who we haven't see, will be equivalent to Mike McCray who was a 4th year player?
Anyway, I think your evaluation here is really optimistic. I think all of those COULD happen, but that's more of a best case scenario than realistic scenario.
August 12th, 2018 at 1:21 AM ^
Ruiz could very well equal Cole. Cole was physically dominated by powerful DTs in 2016. We'll have to see, though.
2016 Speight was good against poor teams; when things got tough he wasn't particularly sharp. Shea is 2018 is better than Speight in 2018 (no way Speight has this clear of an edge in camp if he's still here) so I find it hard to believe that Shea won't be better than Speight, even if it's just in actually hitting long balls.
Wormley was great. Gary was Wormley 2016 last year. He'll be better this year.
I don't agree with all of the scenarios, but I think they're very realistic. Not guaranteed, but realistic.
Best case scenario is our OL is good, Shea is a 20-28 3 tds 280 ypg player, both RBs rush for 1000 yards, receivers are unstoppable downfield, and the team averages 40 ppg, with a defense that is #1 in the nation. Realistic is short of that, but still good.
August 12th, 2018 at 8:12 AM ^
If we average 40 ppg with the #1 defense, we will be the national champs.
August 12th, 2018 at 8:38 AM ^
lol @ 40pts/game.
The only way M scores more than 40 in more than 3 games is if we play Rutgers twice. Come on man.
August 12th, 2018 at 9:58 AM ^
It sounded crazy to me too, but the 2016 was averaging about 40 ppg for much of that season and that wasn't a great offense. 63, 51, 45, 49, 14, 78, 41, 32, 59, 13, 20, 27 (2OT), and then 32. If the offense is better than 2016's unit - with a D approximately as good - it's not unreasonable to think we could average in the 30's somewhere
August 12th, 2018 at 1:39 AM ^
Agree that I'm projecting some growth we haven't seen in person yet, but since we have the benefit of hindsight for 2016 but not 2018 that's an inherent part of this.
Speight was a 3 star RS SO starting for the first time in 2016. I'll take the 5-star whose shown promise in his starting experience to date.
Wormley was great in 2016, but I'd say Gary was barely below his level last year and I'd expect a fairly big jump between his true sophomore and true junior year.
McCray was coming off years of injury in 2016 and was solid but always limited by his speed which is a big deal in today's game. From the camp chatter I've read sounds like we're loaded with athletes at LB and I'll take whoever comes out on top of that battle