Basketball Searchbits: Team Ho
OUR WATCH HAS ENDED
I fired off an unusual Sunday post because I was sick of updating and updating and updating a post and thought it would be obsolete by Monday. It was. Roddy Gayle Jr is in. Sam Walters is in. Lorenzo Cason is in. Vlad Goldin… well, he should be in sooner rather than later.
Assuming Goldin, this is as of this moment a basketball team with zero open scholarship slots. To go from "Will Tschetter, I guess?" to this in a couple of weeks is the most whirlwind roster makeover in the history of Michigan athletics.
BUT ADMISSIONS?
Never say never in this department but they've officially announced Gayle and Jones. They briefly announced Donaldson before yoinking that back so I assume that he's on the verge. Goldin should be a grad transfer, Wolf was at Yale, and Walters had just one year at Alabama. My assumption is that after the prior debacles, Dusty May wasn't going to let anyone announce until their transcript got checked out. We'll see about the validity of that assumption.
ARE WE DONE?
Probably. Anyone who comes in at this point would either have to be cool with a year of apprenticeship or tantalizing enough to take despite a potentially negative knock-on effect for guys projected to be in the rotation—primarily Will Tschetter and Nimari Burnett.
Two of the obvious take options aren't happening. St Mary's SG Aidan Mahaney visited Creighton, has a couple more visits set up, and is picking between three non-M schools for his final one. Meanwhile, FAU SG Johnell Davis is seemingly between Kentucky and Arkansas.
I still think Oakland F Trey Townsend isn't happening, either, but he's apparently done with visits; Michigan is one of three schools that got one. Ohio State and Arizona are the others. Tony Paul points out that OSU just picked up former teammate Micah Parrish.
The other two guys worth the swing are Khani Rooths and Liam McNeeley, two top 50 recruits who could play the 3 or 4. I am still in 1% mode when it comes to McNeeley. Rooths is more plausible but the "I am 100% open" tweet is a bit of a downer, and Michigan's depth chart is suddenly jammed.
I mean, sure, if either of those guys wants in you take them, offer Jace Howard a PWO spot, and figure it out later. But Michigan just went from the place you'll definitely play a ton to a place where you're in a war for minutes. I think this is it.
So!
[After THE JUMP: what you've won]
ROSTER
Projected starters in bold. Important rotation players in italics.
PG: Tre Donaldson (Jr), Durral Brooks (Fr), Lorenzo Cason (Fr)
SG: Roddy Gayle (Jr), George Washington III (So), Justin Pippen (Fr)
SF: Rubin Jones (Sr*), Nimari Burnett (Jr*), Jace Howard (Sr*)
PF: Sam Walters (So), Will Tschetter (Jr)
C: Vlad Goldin(Sr*), Danny Wolf (Jr)
I project that one of the four underclassman guards gets ~10 MPG but I couldn't tell you who.
As far as usage goes, my money is on Gayle and Goldin being the two starters who get significantly above 20. Donaldson should be around 20, with Jones and Walters rounding it out.
HOW GOOD IS THIS?
Relative to where Michigan stood two weeks ago it's incredible. The roster above is not only full, it looks like something you might see at an established, good program five years into a coach's tenure. The roster is:
- OLD. The projected nine-man rotation has two underclassmen in it—Walters and whichever G steps up. The two seniors are super seniors.
- BALANCED. The aforementioned super-seniors are the only guys in the rotation who will be out of eligibility next year. There are three seniors, five juniors, two sophomores, and three freshmen. Portal era and all that, but there's a solid chance this team goes into next year even older.
- PROVEN. Donaldson, Gayle, Jones, and Goldin have all been major pieces for top 50 Kenpom teams. The two up-transfers projected to start are a 7'2" center who was the most efficient back-to-the-basket player in college basketball last year and a 6'5" defensive menace—these are not the kind of up-transfers who you worry about falling flat at a higher level.
- FLEXIBLE. Michigan has three guys in the starting lineup who ran the point for their teams a year ago. They have a 1-2 center punch that rivals the Wagner/Teske year. Rubin Jones can check just about anyone. The chance Michigan gets forced into a lineup where the parts don't fit together is relatively low.
Bart Torvik's projections are a little wonky—Goldin at 77% of minutes and Wolf at 69% isn't going to happen—but provide a reasonable baseline expectation. That expectation: 22nd nationally assuming Goldin commits. If Michigan was returning this roster and adding one or two guys, a bid would be a "slam dunk," as the kids say.
The problem is that the roster was "Will Tschetter, I guess," as of two weeks ago and teams assembled largely from the portal seem to be less than the sum of their parts. In February, 247's Isaac Trotter noted that the portal kings weren't that good at doing basketball:
Ten notable teams throughout college basketball filled their respective rosters with seven or more transfers from the 2023 cycle. All eight of the high-major teams on that list are on pace to miss the NCAA tournament.
NC State did make it in but required a miracle run through the ACC tournament to do so. (Yes, then they hilariously donked Duke en route to the Final Four.) It's also worth noting that St John's got hot at the end of the year and barely missed; they ended up #21 in Kenpom. They probably make it in if they don't inexplicably lose to 8-24 Michigan at the beginning of the year in a game where it looked like none of the St John's players had ever met before.
This is our concern, dude. May built his FAU program on continuity that is unheard of in the modern game; he will not have that this year.
POTENTIAL ISSUES
As constituted there are a few different things that could trip Michigan up other than having to wear nametags until conference play.
High guard turnover rates. Donaldson had a 20 TO rate; Gayle was at 19; Jones was at 18. Burnett had an 18 as well. You can live with one shot creator at that level; three is rough. Then again, the three transfers were primary creators for their teams; at Michigan they'll share that burden.
A power forward spot that does nothing but score. Will Tschetter and Sam Walters were both crazy efficient last year; they got 40 and 30 percent of their teams' minutes, respectively. Both guys were defensive liabilities last year, and extremely foul prone. Part of Tschetter's problem was playing a significant number of minutes at center; presumably that won't repeat with Goldin and Wolf on the roster.
Walters has some upside here because he is crazy long and doesn't have to be the quickest guy to start making himself a defensive pest. With Tschetter it's mostly about mitigation.
Frontcourt depth. Right now there are four guys for two spots and the possibility that Burnett or Jones could reasonably check a four. That's fine. One injury to a guy taller than 6'5" and things get iffy.
Gayle three pointers. Gayle was playing through a wrist injury a year ago, which may explain his 3P% falling off a cliff. On the other hand he continued to knock down free throws at an 83% clip.
One guy being a ~30% three point shooter isn't going to kill Michigan when it looks like there will be at least three plus shooters on the floor at all times, but if Gayle can get up to 35% that changes how teams have to defend him.
WELL?
Six seed?
Six seed? Man that is setting expectations high. I'd be happy to just be in the conversation for a bid at the end of the reg season given it's year one and our entire roster is new
I'll take the under [edit: meaning lower than 6 seed] , and happily admit my error when I'm wrong. I expect an up-and-down experience--fastened seatbelts necessary. I think it will take a late push to make the tournament, but the team at tourney time will be playing 2-3 seed lines higher than their full season record.
I love the optimism but nothing in May’s past suggest a turn around guy. Process guy? Yes. System/culture guy? Yes. Not quick turnaround
Well, he's only had one other head coaching job, and it was one of the worst jobs in the country when he took it over.
Still, in his first season at FAU he improved them, from 12-19 to 17-16 - and that was before NIL and the portal.
Even a broken clock is right 3 times a day.
I'm just happy we have players to play.
I think it was Jerry Seinfeld's joke that fans are only rooting for the jerseys. He was wrong.
This roster coming together so dramatically fast teaches a different lesson.
It feels good to root for players that Michigan's coach has chosen, and who have chosen Michigan. In other words, they're like many of us on this board: we chose Michigan and it chose us.
I like the idea of being a 6-seed.
Shock the World!
Six seed question mark is helluva lot better than field a team question mark!
Once Goldin is in, the scholarship allocation is full, but it sounds like May is looking for a wing/forward to play the 4 and move up to the 3 if necessary.
Going to be interesting to see how it shakes out.
Yeah, I can't remember what is and what isn't paywalled info, but it seems okay to say that various items at UMHoops make me think that May isn't done.
We've got 2 stretch 4's on this team already - we need a defensive guy who can play the 3 or 4. Teams last year would just go at Tschetter everytime down the floor.
Is there a rule that I am not aware of that states if you are a stretch four, you can not play defense? I swear, it seemed like not too long ago we had stretch fours who were great defenders every year.
Michigan doesn't have a stretch 4 on the roster. Walters is a wing who can shoot. Cheddar is a stretch 5.
Wonder who would need to leave, or if this is in case Goldin goes pro. I don't think Burnett went in portal so they have to honor the scholarship.
Either GW3 or Phat Phat saw Dusty bringing in a lot of guards and would reconsider their decision to stay committed to Michigan thus would open a spot from SG logjam towards SF/PF spot.
Gaining an entire basketball team from Friday through Tuesday was a lot of fun, and I couldn't be more impressed with May & Co. That said, let's never do this again.
A very literal "And let us never speak of the shortcut again."
In the era of the portal we're going to see this sort of thing on a regular basis. Just hopefully at other schools.
6 seed? Damn.
How quickly this team comes together will help decide its ceiling, for sure. Seems like you can discern a team that has a recognizable Dusty May shape, so that's encouraging. Also seems like a number of these guys, even if of modest evals, see the floor and pass well--I'd rather a team of great passers and team players, on a first go, than Calipari diamonds waiting to be cut.
This is going to be an interesting experiment. A lot may depend now, on things building fairly quickly so that money and enthusiasm find their way to May and the program. Hope all these guys can get to A2 and start jumping in the gymnasium, pronto. Will keep fingers crossed.
Agree. He's past the roster building mountain, and passed with flying colors. Now, the hard part. Between now and the fall, build them into a cohesive team with sort of identity they can win with. If May can pull that off, he's a genius.
I'm trending toward genius. The influx here exceeds the exodus in football. Moore's challenge differs from May's, but genius is a possible term on both fronts.
Let's Go has become let's execute. That is crazy. The pieces are in place.
Thanks for tracking all of this Brian, as always we appreciate the accurate content!
Do they still do overseas trips? Seems like an idea to help develop chemistry before the season.
You are only allowed one trip every four years and Michigan took one in 2022. Next one is on tap in 2026.
Why is this even a rule?
I'm guessing this is similar to the on site scouting rule where it is a cost measure. Michigan can send the basketball team to Europe every month if they choose while some less financially secure schools can't send a team every 4 years. My hunch is if you wanted to fight the rule in court it would be a very winnable case on antitrust grounds.
That's unfortunate, I get it's all hindsight but we could use it a lot more this year than we did in 2022 when we missed the tournament anyway...
Maybe they could do a "Say Yes to Michigan" summer tour. Similar to the football team, they could hit some of the State's tourist areas and recruiting areas. Cool way to get to know the State, your teammates and have some fun.
Excellent idea, and so many great places in the Great Lake State!
The last two times Michigan did an overseas trip they missed the tournament.
Meanwhile, FAU SG Johnell Davis is seemingly between Kentucky and Arkansas.
I've noticed with Bama in football as well, but it's odd to me that for both Bama and UK, two perennial recruiting powers in their sports who lost their famous head coaches, that recruits have seemingly forgotten that Saban and Calipari aren't there anymore? Like are their brands that good that recruits don't care?
It can be explained in three little letters. Come in folks say it with me now... NIL.
I'd say it's what's left behind. Saban and Calipari didn't take the facilities with them or the alumni that will contribute to the NIL.
Both schools had donors make huge pushes in the aftermath of losing legends to help buy new rosters. The money isn't going away.
Let’s hope so, because with Harbaugh gone we need the Michigan brand to be one that still attracts recruits, at least until Moore becomes a better known commodity.
recruits have seemingly forgotten that Saban and Calipari aren't there anymore?
There's a reason why Saban and Calipari went to those schools in the first place. They're bluebloods.
My hope for this team from the day Dusty got hired was to be at minimum a bubble team. This roster definitely feels that way and has me excited about next year and the years to come. It feels like there will be very few coaches that out work Dusty May. GO BLUE!
It is a very interesting and exciting lineup. I would really like to see us land one more stud - starter quality level. I think that puts this team over the top and may cement us as a top 5 Big Ten team (given Mays coaching).
I Don't care about what seed we are, just playing meaningful games at the end of season will be a win.
Dusty is my Homeboy
I'm sticking with hoping to be a competitive bubble team for now for my own sake, but hard to not by hyped with this roster.
I'll buy hyped. Wolf is a team player. These guys can ball. Very excited to see how point works. 5v5 is going to be a meat grinder. I'll pay to see practice at this point.
My expectations/hopes were for May’s first year were for a team that would not be embarrassingly bad, that would work hard, and represent the university well. Seems like we are on track to do much better than that. I am really liking the May hire, even before game #1.
I think some are being a tad pessimistic with projections in other threads, etc but a 6 seed is definitely a bold prediction. I think I would wager they make it as a 8-9 seed that no one wants to play in March if I had to guess.
There are weird vibes happening around Nimari and whether he's actually in the team or not. I am fine with the roster as Brian states it, but more of a true PF would be nice that allows Walters to play some 3 or have insurance at that spot.
Odd to have four young guards all in the development category and have to assume this is a royal rumble year to see who sticks it out. But with Dusty playing three guards it doesn't hurt to have 7 on the roster! Amazing to think of only having 3-4 the last two years and having 7 this year.
Agree on needing an athletic/defensive 4 on this roster. We've got Tschetter & Walters - who aren't known for their defense.
A 6 seed? Maybe a better question is who ends up with most wins in calendar 2024…football or basketball?
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