Hello: Dusty May
The Search
Michigan was dead silent until May was announced during a hockey game I was very mad about. This was a surprise to the basketball world, which widely expected May to get hired by Louisville—historically a top-20 job. John Beilein reportedly met with May, along with Warde Manuel, and was able to sell him on Michigan relative to a very good program.
This space has had a lot of Warde Manuel complaints over the last few years but I have to give it up here: they picked up the leading candidate of the cycle almost immediately after he was available and snaked the guy out from under Louisville. A+.
Now, about that candidate:
Background
Well, if you were looking for the exact opposite of a guy who had a 17-year NBA career, this is it: May's college career is 404 File Not Found. He was a student manager under Bobby Knight at Indiana, then went into various analyst roles his first few years after college before landing an assistant gig at Eastern Michigan. He quickly climbed the ladder, going from EMU to Murray State to UAB to Louisiana Tech. There he was retained by Mike White after he took over for Kerry Rupp and quickly became his right hand; he followed White to Florida.
May jumped to FAU after three years, and it's encouraging that his departure seemed to have a deleterious effect on White's tenure. After an NIT year one, Florida went to the Elite Eight in year two, finishing second in the SEC at 14-4. In year three they were 11-7 in the league and a six seed. Those teams ranked 5th and 22nd in Kenpom, respectively.
White's teams slowly deteriorated after May left. White never had a top 25 team again; after May left they went 26, 32, 41, and 59 before White was shown the door.
[After THE JUMP: resume, recruiting, analytics, the near future]
Resume
May's tenure at FAU is the final six dots here.
May's at Michigan largely because he took a program that had a total of two top 200 Kenpom finishes since 1997 and put up back-to-back top 50 years, with a Final Four run in 2023. It is difficult to overstate how blah Florida Atlantic has been for decades. Prior to May's arrival they had one bid in their D-1 history, which dates back to 1993. That was a 15 seed in 2002.
May took over for former Piston Michael Curry, who had back-to-back 6-12 conference records, and immediately posted the best Florida Atlantic team ever, per Kenpom. After idling around .500 the next two years he posted a 19-15, 11-7 CUSA season that was #129 to Kenpom. May explained this lull on a Rich Eisen Show appearance embedded below: he inherited three players and imported a bunch of grad transfers in year one, so he had to kind of start over in year two.
Then, the blowup. FAU posted a 35-4 season, beating Florida in the nonconference and easily winning a very good edition of CUSA with two other top-50 teams (UAB and North Texas). They won the CUSA tournament with three straight blowouts, edged by Kenpom #20 Memphis in the first round of the tournament, got lucky to draw Fairleigh Dickinson after the second 16-vs-1 upset ever, and then beat #6 Tennessee and #21 Kansas State to reach the Final Four, where they lost to #14 San Diego State by one point.
Florida Atlantic ran it back this year and while they dropped off slightly, they beat Butler, A&M, Virginia Tech and Arizona in the nonconference schedule while moving up to the American. They got an eight seed in the tourney and lost to Northwestern in OT. May was clearly going to be somewhere else after this season, but it's worth noting that he was willing to come back this year, confident that FAU was not a flash in the pan. This was not an out-of-left field run by a team that got an easy draw; FAU beat three top-25 teams to reach the Final Four and was a buzzer-beater away from playing for the national title.
Meanwhile, the "took mid-major to Final Four" track record is pretty dang good:
What a terrible take. They were one shot away from the title game.
— BaylorBearer (@BaylorBearer) March 22, 2024
Here's EVERY mid-major Final Four coach since 2000:
Brad Stevens
Jim Larranaga
Porter Moser
Brian Dutcher
John Calipari
Tark
Kelvin Sampson
Mark Few
Rick Majerus
Gregg Marshall
Tom Crean
Shaka Smart
Bob Huggins
Jury's still out on Moser. Everyone else on that list is a very good basketball coach. Crean is probably the worst name on that list and he has two Big Ten titles at perennial also-ran Indiana.
Roster Construction
Perhaps the most impressive part of May's run at Florida Atlantic is how much of his roster was developed at FAU. This year's Owls are is #1 in Kenpom's "minutes continuity" stat, which measures how similar your playing rotation is to last year's. That might be expected since FAU went to the Final Four and everyone decided to run it back, but the team that went to the Final Four was 26th. May developed this team in Boca Raton.
Just three players in his rotation this year were transfers, and May can take a large part of the credit for two of them. Center Vladislav Goldin left Texas Tech after a freshman year where he barely played; over the last three years he's evolved from a middling rotation guy (18 MPG, 109 ORTG, 21% usage) to a legit star (24 MPG, 126 ORTG, 26% usage). Brian Greenlee also barely played in his one year at Minnesota; he's not a great offensive player but has been a four-year starter for a steadily improving team.
Guard Jalen Gaffney is the only player May had during this run who was a plug and play transfer. He came over after three years at UConn where he was a rotation guy on a couple of top-25 UConn teams. And May did not exactly rely on Gaffney: unusually for a down-transfer, his usage plummeted. He's been at 13% in his two years at FAU.
The rest of this roster came to FAU out of high school.
Recruiting
Ask again later. At FAU's level recruiting rankings more or less don't exist. Johnell Davis, FAU's star, was not ranked by 247. Only a couple high school recruits on the roster actually drew a 247 ranking. White's first two classes at Florida consisted of a four-man class ranking between 116 and 203 on 247 that ranked #21 nationally and a three-man class with #20 Andrew Nembhard, #82 Keyontae Johnson, and #107 Noah Locke that was 19th. (Variable class sizes make overall recruiting class rankings nearly meaningless in basketball.) Nembhard was at Montverde and Johnson at Oak Hill, so May has some experience going after big recruits at basketball factory high schools. Locke, meanwhile, is a guy Florida yoinked away from one John Beilein—Locke visited Flordia two weeks after a Michigan visit and committed a few days later.
One signal we do have is May's ability to grab Gaffney out of the portal. A guy who'd been a rotation piece for a top-25 team was likely in high demand at the mid-major level, and May was able to grab him coming off a 19-15 season that was an improvement for FAU but not exactly indicative of a pending Final Four run.
Also, this can't hurt:
Recruiting note: Dusty May, Eastern Greene HS graduate and former IU manager, will be active recruiting the state of Indiana.
— Jeff Rabjohns (@JeffRabjohns) March 24, 2024
May had Gary native Nelly Davis on his 2023 Florida Atlantic Final Four team, is well-connected and well-respected in Indiana. https://t.co/sxeRlgtwSS
His rapid tour of Michigan, Kentucky, Alabama, Louisiana, and Florida as an assistant will hopefully mean he's got a diverse set of connections.
Vibes
May with Rich Eisen last year:
Here's some video of May teaching closeouts if you want a feel for what he's like:
FAU head coach Dusty May teaches his preferred technique for closeouts 1 pass away in a recent presentation where he covers FAU's Defensive Concepts
— Coaching U (@Coaching_U) March 20, 2024
Watch the full video from the FABC clinic now:
https://t.co/2maQj61eoM pic.twitter.com/ekC6jasbkq
I haven't seen anyone say anything remotely negative about him personally; instead, the opposite:
On a personal note, Dusty May was one of the first coaches — he might’ve been the first — that made me feel welcomed in media.
— Kevin Fielder (@RivalsFielder) March 24, 2024
Nothing was ever a dumb question. No interview was too minor. He always made time.
Congratulations to @CoachDustyMay and his family. They deserve it. https://t.co/FQMNQd2P7Y
Dusty May is a class act and tremendous coach. What he did to elevate Florida Atlantic's basketball team, which then directly had a huge impact on the university, is impressive to see. He's laid a strong foundation for the next coach that will come in. https://t.co/RZaoDWYNuj
— Mid-Major Basketball (@midmajorball) March 24, 2024
When Matt Norlander asked coaches in the tourney who their favorite artists are, he responded with "Rod Wave," drawing disbelief:
Going on @dpshow in 30 minutes. Dusty May has sent this text for all those who have doubted his love of Rod Wave.
— Matt Norlander (@MattNorlander) March 20, 2024
He also tells CBS Sports: “I support Hubert.” https://t.co/uVMsn82bin pic.twitter.com/akzi0O2p7r
I do not know who Rod Wave is. I also do not know who "Lil Durk"—Hubert Davis's pick—is.
Here is a small child being serenaded by the FAU locker room:
Sad to see character of this FAU team questioned. I have seen its true merit. My nephew is a fan. On his birthday, Coach May waved him into the locker where the team cheered, sang, presented him a signed card. They were all genuinely happy to make his moment. This is fau… pic.twitter.com/KvSjRDq1VJ
— GatorBrent (@gator_brent) March 20, 2023
I'd say the vibes are good.
What To Expect
May's teams have some fingerprints you can glean from the statistics:
- Lots of made threes. Not quite Beilein level but this is the first year of May's six at FAU that the Owls have not been in the top 100 in three-pointers attempted. They were top 100 in 3P% three of the last four years, backsliding to 121 this year.
- Lots of made twos. Top 50 the last three years.
- Lots of good shots. The last two years FAU was 98th percentile in the proportion of catch and shoot opportunities that Synergy filed as "unguarded." The previous two: 79th and 95th. Even the pre-breakout FAU teams took a ton of open shots.
- Relatively few long twos. Three of the last four years they've been around 50th in long twos attempted—by that I mean 50th fewest long twos. The outlier was the Final Four year, when they were 9th. May's teams aren't quite as rim-or-three oriented as, say, Nate Oats, but they're not far off. This year they were 15th percentile taking jumpers out to 17 feet and 8th percentile taking long jumpers; last year they were 6th and 7th.
- Relatively plentiful long twos for opponents. Same deal: around 50th three of the last four years and popping up to 21st for the Final Four run.
- Limited easy shots for opponents. This year FAU was 2nd percentile(!!!) in catch and shoot attempts allowed, 98th percentile at forcing jumpers off the bounce, and 99th(!) percentile at forcing runners. Those numbers are virtually identical to last year. They were 20th and 12th percentile in shots at the rim.
- Defensive assist avoidance. IE, how many of the opponents' baskets are assisted. May's teams were top 5 nationally the last two years and have been inside the top 100 every year except his first.
This is great. May's teams are forcing opponents into the toughest shots in basketball and getting tons of open looks themselves. That is traceable back to coaching, especially since these trends started before FAU blew up into a top 50 program.
The Immediate Future
Michigan's current roster is Terrance Williams, Nimari Burnett, Will Tschetter, and Jace Howard. Durral Brooks and Christian Anderson remain committed. (247's Davis Moseley said that he expects Brooks to stick and Burnett to stay, FWIW.) This is a considerably insufficient number of basketball players. Michigan will look to supplement in various ways:
- FAU's top three players—Davis, Goldin, and Alijah Martin—all have a COVID year left and could come over as grad transfers. Since they were willing to run it back with May after the final four run when any and all could have up-transferred for NIL money, I'd imagine there's a good chance all three decide to take a run at the Big Ten.
- May is likely to be on the phone with Tarris Reed and George Washington about returning. Dug McDaniel, too, but since a lot of people expected him to leave even if Howard was retained that seems like a long shot.
- FAU has three guards committed—novel idea to have more than one guard on a roster—and one or more could decide to follow May. Elijah Elliott is the highest-rated at #185, so all are likely to be developmental prospects.
- May could try to pick off players committed to other schools who have recently undergone a coaching change, a la Caris Levert. The lack of major jobs open this year—and OSU deciding to go with an assistant—means the top-100-ish pickings will be slim. Liam McNeeley decommitted from Indiana and says he'll go through a whole recruiting process, there's also, well, Khani Rooths. Those are both unlikely, but LeVert was committed to Ohio. There are gems down in the hinterland of the rankings and May seems adept at finding them.
- And then there's The Portal Writ Large. May has not emphasized the portal but hasn't been a teetotaler about it, and given the distinct Year Zero vibe of the current roster he'll likely have to go find some guys. His experience walking into three guys his first year at FAU will be helpful here.
The other open question is who May will tap as his assistants. He's likely to bring in some or all of his FAU guys, but schools at FAU's level often go with an internal promotion after they lose a successful coach. If he has an opening May could take a shot at an assistant who's been at the high major level a long time for recruiting purposes, and if Beilein's involved with the program he will probably suggest that May look at Saddi Washington, Lavall Jordan, and Luke Yaklich. That, too, is a rumor that's out there: Beilein may return in an administrative capacity.
Etc.: Deal is five years, 3.75 million per.
I am very excited, forgot what it was like to be hungry for MBB content. Encourage anyone with access to read the Athletic article on Dusty taking the job and the ones linked at the end of it about him as well (I skipped the one about the downfall of UM hoops myself)
"Beilein may return in an administrative capacity."
I might cry.
I might cry.
It's getting Dusty in here.
Don't you mean "It's getting Dusty in here and you May cry...."
Beilein comes back and we'll have subs. It will be crazy.
Now you did it - I May cry
March 24th, 2024 at 10:26 PM ^
That fact that Beilein had a large part in this hire makes me feel even better about it. Bringing back Yaklich would be great given his defensive expertise and I remember him being a pretty solid recruiter. Lavall Jordan or retaining Saddi Washington could also be good options
When the hire was first announced, I was a bit underwhelmed.
What I've read in the past 12 hours has increased my level of whelmed-ness.
I don't typically believe in "getting the band back together," but having Beilein involved and some coaches with HC and high-major experience would definitely be a plus.
With May, we may kick the whelm out of other Big Ten teams.
I currently am appropriately whelmed but the whelm has potential to kick up a notch depending on assistant hires and if he is able to bring the grad transfers from FAU.
The questions surrounding May have always been centered around sustainability. His first four years were pretty “meh.” Excellent by FAU standards but not exactly something that would earn you consideration at a top job. Now there are reasons the success was middling in those four seasons, but the results are what they are.
The last two years have obviously been the type of years that WILL get you that consideration. But with just two of those seasons there are valid questions surrounding whether that success is sustainable. Especially with this past season bringing everyone back from the Final Four team.
Compared with other candidates, Niko Medved took over Furman and went from 9 wins to 23 by year 4. At Colorado State he went 12-20 in year 1 and has won 20 games twice and 25 games twice in the 5 seasons since, making the NCAA tournament twice. DeVries took over a .500 Drake team (ironically from Medved, who was there one season) and aside from a 20 win season in Year 2, has won 24+ in each of his other 5 seasons with three NCAA tournament appearances.
So there were some other candidates with longer track records of success that I think many fans found attractive in comparison to May. I think the signs were there for May that he was building a team that could consistently compete for NCAA appearances, but it’s also fair for the question to be raised after two years.
This take might have gotten me concerned as it seems like a logical argument. Especially in light of the rumor that Calipari had interest.
However, the fact that Beilein was involved helps overcome these concerns. I doubt John is going to campaign on Michigan's behalf for someone he doesn't feel is worthy.
To be honest I’d be way more concerned about Calipari than taking a shot on May. Calipari hasn’t done anything the last 5 or 6 years despite having elite talent at Kentucky… talent that won’t be available to him at Michigan.
As an in-game coach, it really looks like the game has passed Calipari by. Tremendous career, but he’s won just a single NCAA Tournament game in the last 5 years with the crazy talent Kentucky brings in. Id have a really hard time seeing him translate to Michigan.
So many positive things about May. I'm pumped.
And a shout-out to Howard. Though the evidence suggests he's a better pro coach than college coach, he did face a perfect storm of bad breaks this year.
Also, I wish I'd had the nerve to express my opinion that Manuel isn't terrible. That's probably still the prevailing stereotype but I don't know that we can tell.
Well, Warde clearly had his eye on the prize and had his guy vetted and was ready to execute when the time came. Probably working quietly in the background and preparing, going through his list and determining his target for the past month or so and having negotiations in order to get the deal done at the right time and not let another school get his guy because he was ready when the time came.
I still don't like Warde, but this just looks so decisive and well-timed he deserves a lot of credit on this one.
Warde definitely did not confirm a lot of the general suspicions most of us have (probably fairly) had about him lately. He got the coach who was the more-or-less consensus best available this cycle, did it promptly, beat out a more "basketball school" competitor, and got him for a reasonable salary to boot.
Overall good AD work over the last week. His stock is up, no doubt.
Agreed about much of what you wrote but FFS just stop with the excuses for Howard. Howard created the so-called perfect storm of "bad breaks" by his own damn self through mainly horrible coaching and piss-poor roster building/player development.
And if his heart issues kept him from being all that he could be, then that's also on him for not taking a medical leave of absence.
March 24th, 2024 at 10:19 PM ^
You've convinced me. He should be fired again.
Well, since both Louisville and Indiana are now asking to hand their ADs maybe Warde didn't do too bad.
March 24th, 2024 at 10:39 PM ^
And a shout-out to Howard. Though the evidence suggests he's a better pro coach than college coach, he did face a perfect storm of bad breaks this year.
In a world where Howard didn't have Michigan's admissions hurdles, I think he'd be a good college coach. However, Michigan is clearly not a school currently where Howard can be the type of coach he is and find success. He never quite figured out the formula to win and build a team at a school like Michigan. Less Caleb Houstans, Frankie Collins, and Moussa Diabates. More Hunter Dickinsons, Kobe Bufkins, and Will Tschetters
If nothing else, he kinda looks like the Kingpin from Marvel comics.
"...and if Beilein's involved with the program he will probably suggest that May look at Saddi Washington, Lavall Jordan, and Luke Yaklich."
On a weekend where pretty much every team I was rooting for lost, the hiring of May with some Beilein "help" puts a huge smile on my face.
It would be nice if May could bring in Yak as an assistant. Things didn’t quite work out for Yak as a head coach, but his skills coaching D are proven. Crossing fingers……
from James Hawkins article in the Detroit News:
“The University of Michigan has hired a phenomenal basketball coach and an even better person,” Florida Atlantic athletic director Brian White said in a statement. “In addition to his historic level of competitive success, Dusty built a world-class culture within our men’s basketball program; operating with a high level of integrity and representing our university and athletics department with dignity and class.”
I really don't understand the hate, by some, of Warde Manuel. While no one makes every call perfect, I think he's done a fine job on the whole.
It would be nice to see Coach Belein return in some capacity. He has a great track record of spotting and developing talent and can be a great resource for our new coach.
Also coach Beilein, understands leadership and real team building, on and off the court, like few others. May seems to get it as well. JB was interviewed recently by Michigan Medicine two weeks ago ( lots of simple wisdom here).
Please read up on the fiasco with the hockey program that Warde completely mishandled. That alone was a firing offense.
March 24th, 2024 at 10:43 PM ^
I really don't understand the hate, by some, of Warde Manuel. While no one makes every call perfect, I think he's done a fine job on the whole.
While I like this hire, apparently Warde has had Dusty May's name in his pocket for over a year after the rumblings of Juwan taking an NBA job and he didn't do that much research outside of him. Warde has always seemed to have an issue of being reactive and not putting the work in. Thankfully it worked and it had the support of others in his circle, but I'm really not sure where this coaching search would've went if Louisville managed to grab him instead or if Beilein hadn't tag teamed this with him
This is a weird take. "if Beilein hadn't tag teamed this with him" ok, but that happened because Warde involved JB. That wasn't pure coincidence. Do you think that JB was just wandering around the right conference room and happened to hear Warde trying to hire May?
"If Louisville managed to grab him" again, that's not a random circumstance. Warde took actions that influenced (but didn't decide) that outcome.
March 25th, 2024 at 10:58 AM ^
Also this:
but I'm really not sure where this coaching search would've went if Louisville managed to grab him
Where it would've gone? It would've gone on to the next candidate. I don't understand the question.
March 25th, 2024 at 11:52 AM ^
Yeah, so we don't get May. We hire Medved or DeVries. I'm very happy with how the May hire went down, but it was not a "May or bust" situation.
March 24th, 2024 at 11:05 PM ^
The best head coaches of all of his major programs walked out the door on his watch -- one way or another. Maybe some were unavoidable, but it's hard to fathom that all of them were unavailable. He's either the unluckiest AD ever, or he's botched some stuff.
March 25th, 2024 at 10:10 AM ^
I think the list is small enough that you can look at them point by point. I think you really mean Harbaugh, Howard, Beilein, Hutchins, Bakich, and Pearson.
3 I view as not Warde's fault at all.
Harbaugh: left for the NFL. College coaches don't turn down NFL HC opportunities, especially after they've gone 15-0 and won national championships at their alma mater. I don't believe any amount of salary, or any "standing up to the NCAA" by Warde would have been more than a nice gesture - Harbaugh wants to shoot for a Super Bowl, and that's that.
Beilein: left for the NBA. We live in a CBB world where Jay Wright retired and got out of coaching entirely rather than deal with NIL/transfers/one-and-dones/etc. JB wasn't turning down an NBA HC opportunity to begin with, and he had additional reason to not like where CBB was going.
Hutchins: retired at age 64. MAYBE you can throw the bag at her to get her to stay, but that would only delay the inevitable. She's 66 now and was going to retire sooner or later, and it's not like she got poached by anything other than "not having to work anymore."
2 I view as partially Warde's fault.
Howard: fired by Warde, but also hired by Warde. Obviously Warde made a hire that didn't work out, but given the timing of Beilein's departure, there wasn't an option as good as Dusty May available. Partial blame on Warde for making a bad hire, but also partial credit to him for both firing Juawn promptly at the end of the season, and getting the consensus best-available candidate to replace him.
Bakich: left for Clemson. I'm of the opinion that Michigan is at a disadvantage to southern schools for baseball simply due to geography. That said, there was opportunity for Warde to throw the bag at Bakich and at least TRY to make Michigan more of a baseball school. Would it have worked? Would it have been a good investment? It is impossible to know. Personally I don't mind dis-investing in baseball compared to the Big 3 of Football, Basketball, and Hockey, but I undestand that's not a universal opinion.
1 I view as entirely Warde's fault.
Pearson: absolute clusterfuck. Should have either been fired much faster, or should have been retained much faster. Warde's nearly year-long indecision was extremely risky to the hockey program, and he's frankly just lucky that Narauto has worked out so well, and that hockey more or less survived an incredible management blunder (though there has been visible damage, mainly in the form of Augustine).
This seems relatively fair. Blaming Warde because Harbaugh dreamt of winning a Super Bowl and not of building Michigan into Alabama-Redux+Georgia-Part-Deux seems pointless. I also share your opinion that trying to make Michigan baseball happen is not the best use of resources at a school where three other men's sports (and arguably the women's softball team) come first.
The Pearson farrago, however, is all on him. Whether he was trying to wait it out, or was vigorously defending Pearson behind the scenes but failing, the situation left Michigan hockey twisting in the wind, and kept the story in the news if on the back burner.
Sounds good to me. Yoinking him away from the Louisville job -- even better.
GREAT job here Warde. I have been critical, but it sounds like he knocked it out of the park here.
Finally a clean block the officials cannot screw up.
Crean is probably the worst name on that list and he has two Big Ten titles at perennial also-ran Indiana.
Savage!
I'm not here to bash the Dusty May hire, which I think is a good one, just the list from Twitter referenced here. It's a real stretch to call the 90s and early 2000s C-USA teams (Marquette, Cincy, etc.), 2021 Houston, or 2023 San Diego State "mid-majors." The C-USA Final Four teams cited there played in the same conference as the likes of Louisville and Memphis.
But May's FAU team definitely falls under the category. C-USA was much, much weaker by then.
Proof will be in the pudding obviously, but I cannot think of a better omen than smooth-brain Cro-Mag Dave Biddle pooh-poohing this hire.
(apologies to Cro-Magnons for the invidious comparison to Biddle)
Apology accepted.
Cro, the Bro
Coach Beilein continuing being a legend - thanks for the assist Coach!
Hadn't heard that Beilein was directly involved in speaking with May - very encouraging.
Paywalled on 247, but gist is Beilein was one of Warde's advisors and made the trip to sit down with May and Warde. Coach Beilein truly is a gift to Michigan basketball.
Thought 1: I'm loving the character commentary. That's the fondest farewell I ever seen for a departing coach.
Thought 2: would this count as the Bob Knight coaching tree? Dude had 3 titles and I heard some former assistant named Shisheffskee won like 5 or 6. Seems like a fruitful tree.
Thought 3: Chris Collins, wut? Scott Drew, on brand. Calipari, trying too hard.
IMO there's simply too much cross-pollination of ideas and time spent with so many different coaches and systems these days for May (or nearly anyone) to be considered part of a coaching tree.
this is dusty with his assistants on a recruiting tour.
I'm hoping for something more like this with some alumni support...
I feel much better now. There is hope for the future.
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