Recruiting

Earlier this week I put out a call on the internet for mailbag questions. Today I have answers: 

Higher 2024 (and 2024 - 2025) ceiling: UM football or UM basketball? (-zh2oson)

I feel like there are two different answers here, factual ceilings in an objective sports sense and fan enjoyment factor. The matter of fact ceiling is clearly still football, because the defense ought to be one of the very best in college football. That sets the floor pretty high and if the offense can be any degree of decent to good, Michigan is a top 10 team at worst, with even higher upside possible. Projecting men's basketball to be top 10 is extremely lofty, maybe a pie-in-the-sky scenario but one you don't think is likely due to how many new pieces are coming in and the likely growing pains. 

In a fan sense, I do think the upcoming basketball season could be more enjoyable than football, just because there's a fairly legitimate chance this will be the worst Michigan Football season since 2020 while it could be the best basketball season in a few years. Fan enjoyment of sports is often tied to the expectation game; an 8-4 season where you expected to go 11-1 is a miserable time while an 8-4 season when you expected to go 5-7 is a delight. Michigan Basketball being decent but not incredible could definitely be more enjoyable than Michigan Football being very good but not top five elite because one is coming off of 8-24 and the other is coming off of 15-0. 

Of all the football players who left for the NFL with eligibility remaining, who would you most want back? Where is your over/under for wins this year based on the turnover of the roster and coaching staff, the difficult schedule, and the holes on offense? (-AC1997) 

Going to take JJ out of the equation for the first question here because he's the no-brainer answer that needs no explanation. Beyond JJ, I think it's best to look at what areas of the team are a little weak right now. Corner could use depth but Josh Wallace and Mike Sainristil didn't have eligibility. DL depth is a little thin, but the starters are so good I don't think that one makes sense. The more pressing areas are at offensive tackle and wide receiver. Roman Wilson had eligibility remaining (Cornelius Johnson didn't), as did Trente Jones and Karsen Barnhart (Henderson didn't). Given Trente's recent retirement, I don't think we can pick him, so it comes down to Barnhart vs. Wilson. Between those two, you gotta pick Wilson because he was a significantly better football player. 

The Vegas lines put out this week had Michigan at 9.5. I think Michigan is clearly favored over Fresno, Arkansas St, Minnesota, @Illinois, MSU, @Indiana, and Northwestern, so that's 7. The remaining group is Texas, USC, and Washington at home, as well as Oregon and OSU on the road. Michigan is an underdog to me in the road games to me, probably favored over USC and Washington, and maybe a slight 'dog to Texas? I'd probably put the O/U at 8.5 personally, because I'm intrigued by USC and the trio of Texas/Oregon/Ohio State should be elite. Michigan will have a chance to beat all of them if they can put up a good offense, but I'm not entirely convinced at this point that that is going to come to pass. As it stands right now, I'm going with 8.5. 

[AFTER THE JUMP: More Questions]

Things Discussed:

• Craig tells a story about spelling pronunciation, like how people pronounce the 't' in often for the first time since it disappeared in the 15th century.
• Nobody likes Chip Kelly you say? This isn't news. He's not there to bring the love; he's there to give them a running game because Michigan's been playing then six on eight on the box.
• Meta Game evolution: Kelly is there to give them a QB run game. Wink is going to blitz more because he has different talent now. Brown's problem was not enough difference-makers at DT; Wink has WJ, Graham and Grant and doesn't have Sainristil/Moore to call opponents' plays for them.
• OSU going run QB? They have time to develop Sayin, can afford to go slowly because they have a 2-game cushion with their easier schedule.
• Portal recruiting: Seth wants Sam to stop giving us names—just do every recruitment like Rubin Jones. Lost a CB who got shredded in Texas's defense to Illinois, lost a DT to LSU, what's up Sam?
• Answer is they're probably getting two of their targets at safety so they can leave Zeke Berry at Nickel and Ja'den McBurrows can give them corner depth. Problem is Michigan isn't recruiting starters.
• Corner depth? Time is now for Jyaire. Want a guy from the portal. Sam thinks they have a dude in JoJo Edmond coming in.
• Why is Michigan not offering the same NIL as LSU/OSU/USC? Donors haven't been conditioned for this. They were all just at Chad Tough, which it's hard to argue that's not a better use of your dollars than a second-string cornerback.
• After the break: Softball. Congrats on B10 championship. Next year looks great, with only Keke Tholl departing and bringing in JJ Putz's daughter. Got a lucky draw in B10 tourney, got a horrible draw in NCAAs.

[Hit the JUMP for the player, and video and stuff]

(Last because it needs a new name now). While updating my master roster database with this year's NFL Draft results I produced a rather striking analysis: Harbaugh's players were getting into the NFL at about twice the rate as his modern predecessors at Michigan. The data are here for anyone who wants to check my work, or you can go to my tweet storm to see the lists for Harbaugh, Hoke, Rodriguez, Carr, and Moeller.

Anyway today's goal is to explain this:

(Here's that same table if you're having trouble with the interactive version.) Blue means drafted, shaded by round. Yellow shades refer to undrafted free agents, with designations for guys who had full, long NFL careers (UDFA+), actually played in the NFL (UDFA), or just signed but never made a roster (UDFA-) with this year's guys in their own category of don't know yet. The sample includes counts scholarship players, transfers, and the type of walk-on who ascends to the Kovacsian Order of Glasgow. I also removed Xavier Worthy, though other non-enrollees who signed with Michigan are included, just because I didn't think it was right to count Worthy; YMMV.

Not counting guys still in college—and Hoke guys that Harbaugh's program probably deserves the credit for—Harbaugh's recruits are about twice as likely to sign an NFL contract, twice as likely to play in the NFL, twice as likely to be drafted, and twice as likely to be drafted in the first three rounds.

The social media explanation for this has been "player development," and there's truth to that, but it's hardly the whole truth.

What I'd like to do here is to use what we know of the players' stories to see if development was truly the big story. I suspect there's a lot more nuance here, that they were better at developing players than most, but also had some strategies for finding underrated talent, and geared their program in certain ways to make the players coming out of it more valuable to NFL teams.

[After THE JUMP let's talk about this.]