Basketball

Earlier this week I put out a call on the internet for mailbag questions. Today I have answers: 

Higher 2024 (and 2024 - 2025) ceiling: UM football or UM basketball? (-zh2oson)

I feel like there are two different answers here, factual ceilings in an objective sports sense and fan enjoyment factor. The matter of fact ceiling is clearly still football, because the defense ought to be one of the very best in college football. That sets the floor pretty high and if the offense can be any degree of decent to good, Michigan is a top 10 team at worst, with even higher upside possible. Projecting men's basketball to be top 10 is extremely lofty, maybe a pie-in-the-sky scenario but one you don't think is likely due to how many new pieces are coming in and the likely growing pains. 

In a fan sense, I do think the upcoming basketball season could be more enjoyable than football, just because there's a fairly legitimate chance this will be the worst Michigan Football season since 2020 while it could be the best basketball season in a few years. Fan enjoyment of sports is often tied to the expectation game; an 8-4 season where you expected to go 11-1 is a miserable time while an 8-4 season when you expected to go 5-7 is a delight. Michigan Basketball being decent but not incredible could definitely be more enjoyable than Michigan Football being very good but not top five elite because one is coming off of 8-24 and the other is coming off of 15-0. 

Of all the football players who left for the NFL with eligibility remaining, who would you most want back? Where is your over/under for wins this year based on the turnover of the roster and coaching staff, the difficult schedule, and the holes on offense? (-AC1997) 

Going to take JJ out of the equation for the first question here because he's the no-brainer answer that needs no explanation. Beyond JJ, I think it's best to look at what areas of the team are a little weak right now. Corner could use depth but Josh Wallace and Mike Sainristil didn't have eligibility. DL depth is a little thin, but the starters are so good I don't think that one makes sense. The more pressing areas are at offensive tackle and wide receiver. Roman Wilson had eligibility remaining (Cornelius Johnson didn't), as did Trente Jones and Karsen Barnhart (Henderson didn't). Given Trente's recent retirement, I don't think we can pick him, so it comes down to Barnhart vs. Wilson. Between those two, you gotta pick Wilson because he was a significantly better football player. 

The Vegas lines put out this week had Michigan at 9.5. I think Michigan is clearly favored over Fresno, Arkansas St, Minnesota, @Illinois, MSU, @Indiana, and Northwestern, so that's 7. The remaining group is Texas, USC, and Washington at home, as well as Oregon and OSU on the road. Michigan is an underdog to me in the road games to me, probably favored over USC and Washington, and maybe a slight 'dog to Texas? I'd probably put the O/U at 8.5 personally, because I'm intrigued by USC and the trio of Texas/Oregon/Ohio State should be elite. Michigan will have a chance to beat all of them if they can put up a good offense, but I'm not entirely convinced at this point that that is going to come to pass. As it stands right now, I'm going with 8.5. 

[AFTER THE JUMP: More Questions]

After attacking the portal with an enthusiasm unknown to mankind, Dusty May landed his second HS commitment when Lorenzo Cason signed with the Wolverines a few weeks back. 

GURU RANKINGS

On3 is the most bullish on Cason, slotting him just outside their top 150 prospects. 247 places Lorenzo just outside the top 250, and Rivals/ESPN have him firmly in "who-dat" territory. There is relative consensus in terms of size, as all services agree on 190 pounds at 6'2-6'3.

I have no basis for ranking any individual in the 2024 class, as I haven't seen enough of those prospects to have an informed opinion. But from a holistic perspective across years, I'd likely split the difference between On3 and 247. After evaluating multiple full games, I lean toward a Mid-Major/Mid-Major Plus grade. 

SCOUTING

Though I have sifted through full-game film, I have not evaluated Lorenzo Cason live. As someone that has scouted professionally for years, multiple live viewings always generate the most informed evals, so caveats apply and my word is certainly not gospel here. With that out of the way, let's get into it.

Playmaking/shot-creation for others is Cason's best facet in my opinion. He consistently identifies defensive coverages and takes advantage of the associated vulnerabilities. That is rare for a HS guard. 

In the clip below, Windermere Prep is consistently pre-rotating their weakside guard to take away the roll-man. Lorenzo sniffs that out with ease and repeatedly exploits the pre-rotation by finding the weakside teammate that has been vacated by the defense.  

And he manipulates drop coverage to optimize passing windows to create easy looks for teammates. In the clip below, Cason puts the opposing guard in jail (IE on his hip/backside) and dribbles right twice to force the opposing big to commit to him............and that allows the screener/roll-man a free walk to the rim for an uncontested layup.  

[After THE JUMP: projectable pull-up game with questionable athleticism]

Things Discussed:

• LSU is out of NIL money? They got outbid for an MSU DT and Brian Kelly says "We don't buy players." That'll be news to Bryce Underwood; hope his checks clear.
• Spartans getting in their feelings about Jaden Mangham possibly transferring to Michigan (or Ohio State or Minnesota). Want to prevent him from graduating. There's an intrastate program that allows you to finish your MSU degree at Michigan. Why can't this work for other guys? It's a formal in-state program. The reason academic programs like this don't associate with athletic transfers that much is schools other than Michigan are good at making exceptions for athletes. Michigan should have done so for Terrence Shannon; they probably were right to turn down Caleb Love.
• Brian: Good time to be a Michigan fan; long-term prognoses for OSU and MSU not great.
• Dusty May's presser: Best first presser ever? He's a great communicator/teacher who gave us a lot of information, addressed exact questions. He was watching OSU games for fun? Seth: He was probably watching OSU games because he thought he'd be coaching them.
• Dusty's offense: two point guards, wants all of his players to be facilitators so the ball can't get stuck, can't get trapped. All of these guys have an out: good passers or at worst they can shoot it over anybody. Kinda like Beilein's where the PG with a 64-bit decision tree. Dusty May wants lots of guys with 16-bit decision trees. Tough part: lots of teaching to get it down.
• Rubin Jones perfect glue guy. I'm calling this now: I'm the #1 Rubin Jones fan around here. No takesies.
• Competition in the Big Ten? Oregon and UCLA will be decent, MSU standing pat with a bubble team, OSU is new coaching, Purdue graduated everybody. Michigan will probably be…top 4, 6-seed? Expect them to lose some games early as they learn to play with each other.
• Roster May built is ideal but for a star. I call it the Dayenu roster because everybody's one flaw from being in the NBA. Craig: May wants to be fun as well as good. Seth: Sounds like he's one of us.
• Football in the break: Texas CB Terrance Brooks?. Watched him vs Washington last year, when he was getting burned because he was in man all day. He's..Vincent Gray? Technically solid, smart, big, good ball skills, not a burner. Need to give him help; Michigan would be a good fit because they use so much poach coverage to take away the post. Texas was terrible because they were playing so much press quarters with no help on the double post and fade. Michigan takes that away.
• Schools cutting sports because of paying athletes? They'll say that, but they shouldn't. They're paying just 10% of their budget to players; pro leagues pay 55%. Will happen at the mid-major level because their conferences don't make sense and football is already a massive expenditure that they finance with student fees. Brian: that's a marketing fee; they can just cut back on marketing.
• What we want to see from Congress: your cap is based on how many scholarships you give out.

[Hit the JUMP for the player, and video and stuff]