WTKA Roundtable 5/2/2024: I Wanna Go Back to Michigan Comment Count

Seth May 2nd, 2024 at 11:01 AM

Things Discussed:

  • Draft Takeaways: Nice that Saban kept being like "I love this dude!" Brian: Michigan and Iowa are the best two teams at developing talent; Michigan also recruits in an area where you win a national title if you outperform like that.
  • Seth: Harbaugh recruited at the same level as previous Michigan coaches but where they were getting 20% to 33% of their players to the NFL, Harbaugh is putting *60 Percent* of his players in the League:image
  • JJ McCarthy: Threw as many passes in the first three Qs as the other guys. Would I trade Goff for JJ, Neil? Can't break up a team on a Super Bowl run, but JJ is more valuable than Goff by far; he's gonna be under team control for a long time.
  • Junior Colson: Sam shares that Minter told him to go pro after the championship because he and Harbaugh were going to the league and they're gonna come get him.
  • Amorion Walker: If he'd stayed at receiver he'd be the breakout player of the year, but he burned his redshirts both years and then was at cornerback and Ole Miss—that is a hard position to play, and it's probably gonna need to be next year before he's a breakout player.
  • CJ Charleston: He's here to be a veteran presence. Sinagosa brought him over from YSU. Tough sell getting receivers.
  • DT? Looks like PT wasn't there for their top prospect CJ West so they're moving on to the GVSU guy (Suggs).
  • Jaden Mangham? Seth: YES TAKE ALL THE FALCONS! Brian: I don't want anybody who thought it was a good idea to play for Mel Tucker. He's also against taking anyone from Belleville.
  • Break: Basketball recruits.
  • Post-break: NCAA has an opportunity with House negotiations to sit across the table from *somebody* and create a sustainable future. Brian: Pendulum swung too far, single transfer rule was correct. Seth: Best thing would be to create an incentive formula that gets small schools out of a huge tax bill and makes players want to stay put.

[Hit the JUMP for the player, and video and stuff]

You can catch the entire episode on Michigan Insider's podcast stream.

Part 2 is here. Watch the video here:

The Usual Links:

Why? What is he gonna do, perform at a college level?

Comments

bluebyyou

May 2nd, 2024 at 11:28 AM ^

Regarding Brian's comment that the single transfer rule was correct, I would agree that the rule would significantly reduce movement in and out of the portal.

What I would question is whether such a rule might be a problem from an antitrust standpoint.

The Supreme Court decision was a game changer and college football is a very different product than the NFL. A superleague might be a good answer because that is where maximum fan interest will reside along with the money players would be paid and where the presence of a union and financial rewards might provide the incentives that result in stability.

Shorty the Bea…

May 2nd, 2024 at 11:52 AM ^

I believe what Brian meant was in a regulated environment (which means there is a collectively bargained contract between schools and a players union) the two sides would create a system which allows for one free transfer before there is a sanction against a player for transferring multiple times to reduce movement.

Due to the relatively short length of college careers this would seem advisable as it benefits programs and school culture and players' academic pursuits while still allowing for greater roster control and the opportunity for players to make a significant pay day upgrade during their short careers, should they choose.

bluebyyou

May 2nd, 2024 at 1:32 PM ^

The major issue I see with unions for players is that even if the B1G and the SEC were to create a consortium where they control the narrative, there are other conferences not thusly bound.  Consequently, those schools could buy the services of players.

I believe the NFL had a merger with the AFC several decades ago when a second league was formed.  If everyone is on board, life gets easier but with the disparity of the income potential between schools, I don't see that happening.

Blinkin

May 2nd, 2024 at 11:55 AM ^

I don't think there's a legal issue as long as you admit players are employees and put them under contract (yes the NCAA will fight that notion of employee status).  There are various legal tools like non-compete agreements that could be used as well.  Yes I know that non-competes are taking a general beating right now (and probably rightfully so), but hitting regular office drones and line cooks with non-competes isn't the same as an All-Conference caliber football player.

dragonchild

May 2nd, 2024 at 12:36 PM ^

I don't know if regulating behavior of this sort ever works for the better.  We're not talking about crimes here; we're talking about simple self-interest.  Brian doesn't like the optics, but he's really just bitching about the world we all live in now.

That said, while I wouldn't try to throw regs at a portal frequent flyer, I think it's long past time we drop the "happy trails" bullshit and call a spade a spade:  if you're transferring multiple times for more PT, you're a coward.  Seriously.  You're in competitive sports and the first thing you do when the coach starts someone else is to run away from competition?

Let's not have the NCAA -- a embarrassingly incompetent institution -- try to implement a fix here.  But can we at least throw tomatoes at fragile snowflakes who transfer more times than they have years of eligibility?  I ain't rooting for a player whose first reaction to adversity is to leave town.  After all, a guy who soils his pants next to a teammate probably lacks the requisite mental toughness to face a powerhouse opponent.

Seth

May 2nd, 2024 at 12:53 PM ^

It's a lot more than optics. Employment agreements exist in all fields of business because a company can't spend all of its time swapping and retraining employees. It behooves both parties to sign an agreement providing stability.

Also the system right now makes players choose between optimizing their value as athletes and receiving a complete education. This incentive structure is backwards, but does competitively benefit the SEC, Ohio State, and most of the G5 schools who aren't providing high-value educations for their athletes (even if the school itself is a good degree). Michigan, Penn State, Notre Dame, and a lot of high-academic schools that recruit on education have been fighting this at the NCAA level for years.

dragonchild

May 2nd, 2024 at 1:00 PM ^

There's the rub though:  wrt employment agreements, treating them as such would be nice, because something like signing contracts would go a long way toward providing stability.  But I consider that a different approach than going, "NCAA, fix this," because the very reason programs can't offer contracts is the NCAA's insistence that players aren't employees.  Putting the fox in charge of henhouse security doesn't go well.

I also don't think it's a controversial take to say that Derrick Harmon isn't made of the same stuff as Michael Barrett.

Seth

May 2nd, 2024 at 1:09 PM ^

"NCAA fix this" is a strawman. Today's conversation was about how negotiations over a settlement in the House case are an opportunity that the NCAA hasn't had yet to be sitting across from somebody at the other end of the table who is representing player interests. They can't just get out of the lawsuit without presenting a plan, so they can actually create a plan! The problem before was they couldn't negotiate because there wasn't a negotiating partner, and won't be until the players have a union capable of collective bargaining on their behalf.

dragonchild

May 2nd, 2024 at 1:55 PM ^

Sorry, I think I'm being misunderstood a bit here.  The conversation upthread is focused on program-player negotiations, but I'm not on that.  I was replying to bluebyyou on this:

Regarding Brian's comment that the single transfer rule was correct, I would agree that the rule would significantly reduce movement in and out of the portal.

I'm specifically focused on Brian's rant (starting about 29:50) about portal abuse, and him saying the NCAA should use loss of eligibility to restrict that.  I'm opposed to using the NCAA for anything, but also against restricting horizontal movement in general.  The courts ruled against it for a reason.  (But I'm also saying Brian should be able to point a finger at someone like Derrick Harmon and laugh.)

bluebyyou

May 2nd, 2024 at 3:45 PM ^

Seth, employment agreements, particularly with companies having strong balance sheets, are not bound by a  salary cap of $20 million divided by N although NIL changes things a bit.

I used to put much more stock in the education component than I do now.  For a player with the skill set that would permit playing in the NFL or NBA, MLB, etc., the amount of money generated by a typical education is of secondary importance.  A guarantee of a four year scholarship should pro sports not work out is an incentive that could be added to a contract. Didn't Michigan once guarantee the four years even if a player left for the pros?

M Vader

May 2nd, 2024 at 1:01 PM ^

How about when it's not the first thing you do?   If a player is sitting on the bench for a year and then recruited over, wouldn't it make sense to leave?  The vast majority of players in college sports are not "fragile snowflakes" but instead serious student athletes.   Leaving a school sometimes is more if a risk than staying as well.   I think all college football players dream of the NFL.   If the only realistic chance of realizing that dream is to transfer then I say do it.   Do you hold transferring against players that transferred to Michigan and helped us win a title?

UWSBlue

May 2nd, 2024 at 12:09 PM ^

The Colson thing makes sense because I was seemingly more emotional than he was when he got "the call." The pick was made on the evening of January 8th. 

Wallaby Court

May 2nd, 2024 at 12:32 PM ^

I want to know more about the timing of that conversation between Junior Colson and Jesse Minter. I did not like how Michigan handled Jim Harbaugh's departure. I can accept that Harbaugh was determined to leave for the NFL. But from my perspective, Michigan did not try to make that decision as hard as possible for Harbaugh. Weeks passed with quibbling about salary, bonus pools, NIL support, and the effects of a hypothetical NCAA suspension only for an unqualified offer to materialize at five minutes to midnight. It feels like Michigan negotiated Harbaugh into leaving for the NFL and only made its last offer as a way to save face.

But if Minter was telling Colson that he was going to join Harbaugh in the NFL in January, that completely changes my perspective. I would redirect my frustration from Michigan to Harbaugh. The tables will have turned; Harbaugh, not Michigan, was stringing everyone along by pretending to entertain contract offers. Plans can change and the right NFL offer might not have materialized, but Harbaugh could have told Michigan that he intended to leave. That could have given Michigan time to start its hiring process and avoid the "will he or won't he" stall that interrupted any post-championship recruiting momentum.

Seth

May 2nd, 2024 at 12:56 PM ^

You're making this more dramatic than it is. Yes, I think Warde only half-assedly tried to keep Harbaugh, and that some of the regents were very frustrated by this. But that was happening before Jan 8. After Warde made him sign a cheap deal in 2020 Harbaugh was going to be looking to get back to the NFL. I said as much in HTTV last year. He was more likely to stick around for a NC, but after he won one, the only thing that made it possible for him to return was that the NCAA and Big Ten were doing everything they could to push him out the door.

Wallaby Court

May 2nd, 2024 at 1:24 PM ^

I appreciate the apparent inevitability of Harbaugh's return to the NFL. Before the revelation about Colson's conversation with Minter, I maintained that Michigan may not have been able to keep Harbaugh from the NFL, but it seems like it could have made his decision a lot harder.

I intended my earlier post mostly an updated attempt to reapportion my internal frustration at Michigan's apparent inability to convert the momentum from three wildly successful seasons into some offseason victories* between Harbaugh and Michigan.

*Feel free to unload of your jibes about offseason championships here. 

Oldadguy

May 2nd, 2024 at 1:32 PM ^

Jim was always clear he wanted one more shot at the league. I don't care how much of a "bag" Michigan was going to throw at him, he was gone. We got a national championship and the infrastructure (roster, coaches) to chase another one sooner vs. later. Jim accomplished all we wanted. Godspeed and stop the hand wringing

GoBlueZ06

May 2nd, 2024 at 2:30 PM ^

I cannot stand this kind of take.

It wasn't about a bag, it was about recognizing the coach's value and doing everything at your disposal to keep him at U of M; to suggest that Warde et al handled this well or that whatever they did was not going to impact Harbaugh's decision is just completely disingenuous.

If that stat didn't leap out at you today, this was a coach who sent SIXTY PERCENT of his players to the league, he was worth every possible effort to hold on to and it beggars belief that anyone believe that kind of effort was made. 

AlbanyBlue

May 3rd, 2024 at 2:41 PM ^

This is the correct answer. Both main points, or sets of points, are true. Warde and Harbaugh did not have a great working relationship. Harbaugh also wanted to go back to the NFL. Whether or not Harbaugh was being completely honest when he said "all I wanted was for Michigan to show me the love" is something I doubt we'll ever know.

My position stays the same -- this all happened, fine, but fundamentally I don't care, because we won a title. Under the most difficult circumstances possible, we won the National Title. Michigan Team 144 might be the pinnacle of team football, bar none. 

bhinrichs

May 3rd, 2024 at 1:31 AM ^

Take it for what it's worth - I have a friend who was a grad-student field manager (is that the right title? - it's a volunteer position) for this past 2023-24 season, and he started Jan 2023.  When I directly asked this friend in June 2023, he said even in the Spring of 2023 that JH gave off a pretty strong vibe that this was going to be his last year.

blueheron

May 2nd, 2024 at 12:24 PM ^

Look at RichRod's lousy numbers. Sure, the sample size was small, and Lloyd's last few recruiting classes were mediocre, but he'd later prove (at Arizona) that he was bad at recruiting, player development, or both. Schools with recruiting classes in his range (like Iowa) had way more guys get close to NFL rosters.

Seth

May 2nd, 2024 at 12:59 PM ^

In RR's slight defense, Hoke's staff didn't do a great job developing guys that Rich Rod and his staff only got through their freshman and sophomore years (he arrived too late in 2008 to build much of a class). And Practicegate and 3-9 and all of that also dampened recruiting, so the bottom of his classes were a lot lower. RR also had a few more guys I might classify as good college player who weren't as valuable to the NFL. Like, we'd recruit Craig Roh, Roy Roundtree, Devin Gardner, and Kevin Koger again, but those guys never made an NFL roster.

But he still had a lot of whiffs. Draft picks:

Name

Round

Taylor Lewan

1st

Mike Martin

3rd

Michael Schofield

3rd

Jake Ryan

4th

Denard Robinson

5th

William Campbell

6th

Mike Cox

7th

Josh Furman

7th

Jeremy Gallon

7th

Jordan Kovacs

UDFA+

Kenny Demens

UDFA

Patrick Omameh

UDFA+

Richard Ash

UDFA+

Fitzgerald Toussaint

UDFA+

4+-stars who weren't drafted:

Devin Gardner
Darryl Stonum
Dann O'Neill
Craig Roh
Justin Turner
Demar Dorsey
Je'Ron Stokes
Boubacar Cissoko
Cullen Christian
J.B. Fitzgerald
Tate Forcier
Anthony LaLota
Quinton Washington
Sam McGuffie
Marcus Witherspoon
Brandon Smith
Ricky Barnum
Terrence Robinson
Brandon Moore
Michael Shaw
Kevin Koger
Marvin Robinson
Ricardo Miller

Seth

May 3rd, 2024 at 12:01 AM ^

The list is the list. Jeremiah Beasley is going to count against Sherrone, Harbaugh will get credit for Evan Link, etc. I wasn't going to start taking guys off for editorial reasons. "Development" is only one part of what's going on here. They found talent, found self-motivators, figured out ways to project guys better (e.g. if their dad played in the NFL), and probably most effectively, they made it a program goal to prepare their players for the NFL. Harbaugh also likely used his connections in the NFL to help his guys. Development is in there somewhere too, but that's not really what we're able to measure. What we can say is Harbaugh-recruited players whose college careers are over were far more likely to be in the NFL than players recruited by former coaches.

NonAlumFan

May 2nd, 2024 at 1:15 PM ^

The 60% stat is insane! Is that measured by scholarship players or all roster spots?

I'm curious what the percent of players in the NFL Day, Urban, Saban, Dabo, Smart, etc. have sent and how Harbaugh compares. It feels like he's been top 3.

FatGuyTouchdown

May 2nd, 2024 at 1:52 PM ^

No, you don’t trade Jared Goff for JJ McCarthy. Jared Goff is much, much better than JJ and JJ will be lucky to scrape goffs ceiling even if he’s going to be cheaper

colonel

May 2nd, 2024 at 10:15 PM ^

I think “mediocre” is a bit harsh. The guy has made a Super Bowl and nearly made another last season. The epic collapse in the NFC title game was hardly his fault (a fumble and certain drops by other skill position players come to mind). For my money, he’s top-ten. One would take Mahomes, Allen, Jackson, Herbert, healthy Rogers, Prescott, Hurts, Stroud, and maybe Lawrence ahead of Goff, but that would be it, as far as I can tell. His leadership has low-key been an important piece of the Lions turn-around. The “Ja-red Goff” chants are happening for a reason.

AlbanyBlue

May 3rd, 2024 at 2:45 PM ^

This has to be qualified. Goff is worse under pressure than most NFL starters. But he's also better than most when kept clean. Behind a top-flight OL, Goff will win the Lions many games. 
But that's the conundrum with re-signing him, especially long-term. You have to maintain the OL at a very high level as well, or else there's trouble.

[EDITED: Apparently, my statement is categorically wrong. But I'll leave it up so the response correcting what I said doesn't look silly. My bad, though.....]

MichiganiaMan

May 2nd, 2024 at 2:04 PM ^

As I ponder what Title IX means for a “paying the players” future, I wonder if we begin to see sports being treated like academic departments, where everyone on the team is “hired” under the same structure as TA’s and Grad researchers, and then that justifies the much larger payouts to football (same way that sciences TAs ended up paid better than TAs in humanities). 

In theory, that wouldn’t run afoul of requirements to offer equal opportunity.

dragonchild

May 2nd, 2024 at 2:17 PM ^

Title IX is a red herring, and a particularly odious one at that, because a lot of bad people are extremely eager to get rid of it.  Not saying you are, I'm just saying, be skeptical of vocal opinions about Title IX when they say, "This could be a potential problem," because that's usually a dogwhistle for, "I want this to be a problem, for want of an excuse to repeal it."

Fact is, even before we get to Title IX, we're gonna have an extremely heated debate about players on the same team.  The starting QB is naturally going to demand more money than the third-string linebacker, and the latter is going to naturally argue for equal payment for all.  As far as precedent goes, no one expects all employees at any workplace to make the same money, and this status quo coasts along fine next to equal opportunity laws.  Equal opportunity =/= equal pay.  So, once they're considered employees, I see the starting QB winning this battle.

Which means pay is going to be unequal before female athletes factor in the conversation.  And since women's athletics don't bring in nearly as much revenue, that they won't get paid as much will inevitably result in a slew of Title IX lawsuits that I predict with confidence won't get very far, excepting special cases like Caitlin Clark (who single-handedly raised basketball ratings during her time in college).

Carpetbagger

May 2nd, 2024 at 4:20 PM ^

Title IX or not, with the courts and government becoming much more interested in equal outcomes rather than equal opportunity there will be lawsuits. And no guarantee those lawsuits don't put things right back to being paid under the table, because that's what works best to pay those who are worth being paid.

PopeLando

May 2nd, 2024 at 2:18 PM ^

VERY interesting note about Junior Colson.

Does this answer the UFR question of “hey, is he being COACHED to ‘cover grass’??”? It seems to indicate that his college coaches have been very happy with his performance.

It’s gotta either be that, or maybe the coaches believe he’s THIS close to putting it all together and that when he does he’ll be the steal of the draft