Unverified Voracity Is On The Verge Of Defeating Amateurism
The end of amateurism. Ol' Jeff Kessler's finally going to put a stake in the heart of the NCAA, it seems, with his latest lawsuit. This one is seeking vast amounts of damages for players who were denied their NIL opportunities. The prospect of a four billion dollar judgment has finally caused the administrator class to throw in the towel. Details are still scanty, but the general shape of it:
With the settlement expected to cost billions in back pay for former athletes, it would likely also require the NCAA and conferences to agree to a system for sharing more revenue with some of the players moving forward.
Sources indicated the top-end revenue share number per school -- once it's determined -- would be in the neighborhood of $20 million annually, although that's yet to be settled. Whatever number is set by the settlement, individual schools will be able to opt in to share revenue up to that number with their student athletes at their discretion.
This is being portrayed as "revenue sharing," as the NCAA hopes to dodge the fact that their athletes are employees. That might also let them dance around Title IX issues that will arise once football and men's basketball players are raking in money that few female athletes are.
As far as the local angle: the faster athletic departments are directly paying players the better. Michigan obviously has the capability to hit the max here, and I can't imagine that anyone has any illusions about the fact that they'll have to. I have no doubt that schools will continue to bring in outside money in an effort to win, and that Michigan won't be on the Kentucky/Memphis/OSU level there, but choosing between 200k and 250k is a lot different than nothing and 50k; the relative gaps will be smaller.
Speaking of NIL. Champions Circle has various autographed objects up for auction to support their NIL objectives:
Check it out as long as you do not bid on the thing I bid on.
[After THE JUMP: basketball speculation CONTINUES]
Saban on Sainristil. Game recognize game:
"I LOVE... there's a difference between love and LOVE... I LOVE this guy. This guy may be the best football player pound-for-pound in the draft." - Nick Saban on Michigan CB Mike Sainristil, selected by the Commanders at No. 50 ️ #NFLDraft pic.twitter.com/fzWiVQrvFY
— Awful Announcing (@awfulannouncing) April 27, 2024
Portal about to be less impactful. This is the last year there will be masses of players with a year of COVID eligibility, and I've long wondered just how much that extra year has inflated portal numbers. Kevin Sweeney has the answer:
429 of the 1,838 players in the portal are using their COVID year: 23.3%.
However, those players are concentrated at the top of the @EvanMiya rankings: Six of the top 10, 11 of top 25, 44 of top 100.
It’s going to get a lot harder to recruit the portal starting next year.— Kevin Sweeney (@CBB_Central) April 30, 2024
Now that Michigan has a basketball team I welcome this development. Fewer guys kicking around with an extra year of eligibility should mean slightly more stable rosters and less opportunity to create a good team out of air.
Meanwhile, Sweeney also highlights this tweet:
Outside of Saint Thomas, here are the transfers Eric Musselman has brought in so far at USC:
Josh Cohen (grad transfer)
Clark Slajchert (grad transfer)
Bryce Pope (grad)
Matt Knowling (grad)
Rashaun Agee (grad)
Chibuzo Agbo (grad)
Terrance Williams (grad)
Smell a trend?— Isaac Trotter (@Isaac__Trotter) April 30, 2024
Thomas isn't a grad transfer but he is a rising senior with one year of eligibility left. Everyone Musselman has gotten out of the portal will be gone next year. Contrast that with Dusty May, who has two one-and-done transfers, three guys with two years, and one with three. I much prefer May's approach.
Michigan has the top ranked Incoming Transfer Class at https://t.co/cegyfz96ax right now.
All six of their transfer additions are players inside the top 120 players in the portal, headlined by Vlad Goldin at #9. pic.twitter.com/UfxqY0Sl83— Evan Miyakawa (@EvanMiya) May 1, 2024
Not bad.
What's left, basketball-wise. With Vlad Goldin officially in the boat, Nimari Burnett confirming that he remains in said boat, and George Washington III once again out of aforementioned boat, Michigan appears to be looking for one more rotation piece to complete Dusty May's first Michigan roster. (Yes, yes, maybe two, Jace Howard, etc.) The shape of that piece isn't too hard to figure out. Michigan has two centers, two forwards, and ~seven guards, depending on how you file Rubin Jones and Nimari Burnett.
If they have a hole it appears to be a 3/4 swingman. They do not have anyone between 6'6" and 6'9" except Tschetter, who's emphatically not a wing. I don't think this is a huge issue since Burnett and Jones are guys who can check wings, but the word on the street is that Michigan is still looking for the right dude.
So I poked around Torvik's portal tracker. Assumptions are that Michigan will be targeting someone who
- is between 6'6" and 6'9"
- played 20 MPG
- can shoot threes at least decently well (50 attempts, 30%+ 3P%)
- is not a true junior
- hasn't already cut their list down
The good news is that there's a bunch of guys who fit the bill here; the bad news is that when you order them by Torvik's PRPG! stat—basically an attempt to quantify the offensive contribution of a player—Terrance Williams is sixth, and second if you cut out guys who either aren't considering Michigan or can't. A meaningful upgrade on Williams isn't assured or even particularly likely, at least in the land of offensive counting stats. Vibes, sure.
This analysis only accounts for guys who played a bunch and misses out on the various Duke transfers who were five stars and then got locked on the bench. The (fun!) problem Michigan has with those guys is playing time. A guy like Sean Stewart, who is more or less making a starting spot a precondition on his transfer, probably isn't looking at Michigan's roster and seeing 30 MPG. I would imagine TJ Power is in the same boat, which is why he's visiting Boston College.
If we assume that Williams is gone and not coming back, it seems like Khani Rooths is by far Michigan's best and most likely option for the spot GWIII just opened up. If it's not him I think we're looking at an up-transfer who wants to shoot his shot on what suddenly looks like a tournament team. A few names:
- Anthony Dell'Orso, Campbell. 6'6" Aussie shot 52/39 on big usage for a hideously bad CAA team as a sophomore. Entered almost three weeks ago and there has been close to zero on his recruitment since.
- Matt Cross, UMass. 6'7" super-senior has already bounced from Miami to Louisville to UMass, where he had a breakout year (63/33/80 shooting) on 24% usage in the A10. Heavily interior-focused, with almost three-quarters of his attempts (or events resulting in FTAs) inside the line. Iowa just got a visit from him.
- DJ Burns (not that DJ Burns), Youngstown State. Monster rebounder at the Horizon level, and at Murray State (MVC) before that. 59/30/85 shooting. Burns is not getting a ton of high major interest, which means maybe he's not a gamechanger.
- Dusan Neskovic, Dartmouth. 6'8", shot 48/37/75, massive usage (34%). Will be a redshirt senior since he did not play during the COVID year. Almost complete radio silence on him since an initial contact list that did not include M.
- Sion James, Tulane. Massively efficient (60/39/68 shooting, rock-bottom TO rate) 6'6" wing; only question is low usage at the AAC level may not translate. On the other hand, 6'6".
- Chisom Okpara, Harvard. 6'8" PF was a 29% usage guy, shot 53/34/67 a year ago. Heavy interior focus, nice assist rate for a PF.
Michigan is not being mentioned for anyone as far as I can see; James and Okpara just got in and are thus more likely than the other four.
Etc.: How may put his staff together. Michigan is developing talent. Deion gonna flame out so hard. The CFP currently does not have a protocol to avoid first-round rematches.
"it would likely also require the NCAA and conferences to agree to a system for sharing more revenue with some of the players moving forward."
Harbaugh is always on the cutting edge, nice work Coach.
What I don't comprehend about the revenue proposal is how it deals with NIL money,
The proposal is about paying players with a maximum per school. However, if NIL is not limited, you still have a scenario where schools with generous boosters will have the ability to "buy" players to their heart's content. How I read the new proposal is that you start with a higher threshold depending on the whim of a given university.
I'm also at a loss as to how conferences are going to limit liability for past players who weren't paid. What would Denard have been worth when he was a player?
Why would Michigan and OSU, with their viewership and stadium capacities, want to be limited to the same maximum as Rutgers and Northwestern?
Exactly. I've said this on here many times before. You can't put the toothpaste back in the tube with this issue. The minute you try to put a threshold on any compensation is when the Alabama's and OSU's of the world go back under the table with it. The only chance at a level playing field is to have no restrictions.
Moreover, I don’t see how the courts would restrict NIL when it’s perfectly legal for pro athletes to make money off the field. Any direct compensation from the schools is going to be in addition to NIL - not a replacement for it.
There is a way but it would require the players to have a union and a CBA between the players' union and the NCAA/conference, etc. Pro sports have restrictions on making money off the field. They can get legit sponsorships, but an owner (i.e. booster) of a pro team can't pay someone the league minimum then give them a phony sponsorship to basically pay them under the table/skirt the salary cap rules.
The only chance at a level playing field is to have no restrictions.
This isn't about having a level playing field. It's simply a way for athletes to get compensated by the schools for the money the schools make off the athletes.
NIL is a completely separate issue. Schools won't be going "back under the table with it" because it won't be limited. Athletes will get direct compensation from the school that will be limited, and they will also get whatever NIL collectives want to pay them. Any attempt to limit NIL compensation will be hammered down by the courts.
It is also my understanding that NIL will not go away and there will still be collectives. That said I wonder how many donors are going to be willing to continue to fill the collective coffers with the millions they have for the last 3-4 years. It's one thing for collectives to be the only source of funds vs. the individual AD's/Universities providing funds themselves.
We keep hearing about "donor fatigue", now we may find out If that's true. If nothing else it will be interesting...
Aren't the insiders saying May is looking for an "impact guard"? Or maybe there are two spots, and we just don't know it yet.
I think I kind of disagree that Tschetter emphatically could not play in the mold of a wing, at least on offense. In fact, his best fit offensively is in kind of in a 3 and shaky-D role with some rebounds here and there, ala college Duncan Robinson. He played the role that he did last because that was a complete perversion of a basketball roster, but I see him more as a wing-ish substance than a "big man."
could not play in the mold of a wing, at least on offense
Yes, exactly . The positions are more important on defense, on offense there's nothing stopping you from having a 7'0 player run the point if he has the ball handling skills.
On defense, you can't play someone at a position they can't guard, the offense will easily find the mismatch.
It's a good point. Although I will say that I don't think Tschetter is incapable of developing a method of defending wings. He would certainly be a footspeed disadvantage but he is long. He could mold himself into "disruptive" at a minimum I think.
I don't think Tschetter is incapable of developing a method of defending wings.
Yes, the method is called "how long does it take to get 5 fouls".
I wonder if football's transfer portal will go the same way, or if it will continue to increase as people take the bag as freshman and then bug out for greener pastures?
Who are the 4 5* transfers coming in?
It's behind a paywall, but I am guessing Goldin, Gayle, Wolf, and Donaldson?
Voracity, verified or not, it's been a while.
Or if not a while but recent, I still missed you.
One might say I was voracious for you. OR one might say I was veracitified for you.
Get a room.
Ew.
Seeing as we only had 1.5 gaurds last year, I welcome how many we have now. Thank the good lord
Here's a new name in the portal that fits most of the above criteria. JT Toppin from New Mexico. 6'9" 205lbs. Just finished his true freshman year.
https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/player/_/id/5143604/jt-toppin
Toppin would be a nice pick up. He's a very good defender and rebounder. He didn't factor a ton in UNM's offense (not sure why; maybe it's just Dick Pitino Jr's offense) but he seemed solid in the mid range and in (eye test only; haven't looked at numbers).
Good 3pt percentage but averaged less than 1 attempt per game. Bit their starting backcourt attempted 309 between them, and had another player attempt 108.
I watched some of UNM games near the end of the season, and Toppin seemed like he was in the doghouse or something. Like it wasn't an injury, but emotional maturity issues. I'm sure Coach May will make a good assessment, but when he was on the court playing you could see the skill & athleticism.
Feels like a guy like that is gonna go to a bigger name school to get starter minutes then go the draft
Related to Obi? ESPN is blocked on work computer so I haven't read the articles.
With the settlement expected to cost billions in back pay for former athletes, it would likely also require the NCAA and conferences to agree to a system for sharing more revenue with some of the players moving forward.
How on earth are you gonna figure out back pay for former athletes? This seems slightly absurd. What was a RB on USC worth in 1999? 1980? 1967? How about a backup OG on Florida from 20 years ago? A kicker on MTSU from 1992? An additional complication is obviously that all that money has been spent long ago so where's it coming from now? You're talking about going from effectively no pay to all of a sudden paying every living current and former player all at once in some capacity. Seems like another instance of everyone cheering on the NCAA's demise without a clear plan for what happens to the sport next
Thankfully this is where lawyers can step in and come up with a plan that a judge may determine is equitable. And those lawyers will only take a measly 30% of the total to provide those numbers.
Works for everyone!
This one is seeking vast amounts of damages for players who were denied their NIL opportunities.
Seems like the NCAA is caving when they should be protected by Article I, Section 9, Clause 3 of the US Constitution. But I'm not a lawyer.
...that is evident from the irrelevant reference.
Article I, Section 9, Clause 3:
No Bill of Attainder or ex post facto Law shall be passed.
It is irrelevant - damages are awarded for past actions all the time, and settlement of civil suit != bill-of-attainder or new-law.
At least the word salad pointed somewhere interesting.
The players entered into an agreement with the schools to play football in return for a scholarship. What law was broken by denying the players NIL rights that they gave up in exchange for a scholarship? What is being argued is that a new law (granting NIL rights) should be retroactively applied to address a past wrongdoing. That’s the very definition of ex post facto. Sorry that you’re on the wrong side of the Constitution.
Which new law is this, exactly, that granted NIL rights?
(You already knew you were wrong when you posted it. Why are you doubling down now?)
The only correct thing you said is “I’m not a lawyer.”
I am a lawyer. Nothing you said makes any sense. There’s no new law granting NIL rights. Players have always had rights to their own name, image and likeness. Just as you do. The NCAA took away rights that players had. Now the courts are saying they had no right to do that. So these lawsuits are correcting a past wrong which happens all the time. No new laws have been passed to make that happen. So there’s no ex post facto issue.
I am not going to cry over the end of amateurism, but what I will say is this whole college athletics things is barreling top speed toward a cliff with no brakes. Who are the leaders in the room thinking 3,5, 10 years ahead? We keep building round holes to fit square pegs, and when something doesnt fit the solution is just to pound harder.
Is no one else a bit turned off by the fact that colleges will now be subsidizing professional sport leagues? is that the mission of University of Michigan? The sport has gotten too big for it's own good - keeping the univeristy/student athlete charade just doesn't seem tenable anymore.
There is no one planning ahead. We’re talking about a rentier class milking college athletics for all it’s worth, at whatever deteriment to athletics itself. They’ll burn the whole thing down to preserve the status quo for one hour, and to avoid sharing a single penny.
The really scary thing isn’t what football is about to become. If it actually collapses, these psychopaths will just move their ill-gotten gains to something that might actually matter, like infrastructure. Then you’ll start seeing people die.
You mean, like building airplanes?
If you're really in the mood for the darkest of dark humor, ask yourself who killed more people - the CEO of Boeing, or the 9/11 terrorists?
Yes, they're looking ten years ahead. In ten years they will make a lot more money. They're not dumb they know exactly what they're doing.
Vibes. Fer sure. But "not Michigan material." Someone go pound that doofus for me one more time.
Saban retired, Deon heading going to have a... 3-9??? Season in 2024?
Is it time for a couple new coaches in the Aflac commercial? If so who should they be? Ryan Day won't fit, he's too tough to ever get injured.
CGI Bo and Woodie?
If we assume that Williams is gone and not coming back
Is he not the Terrence Williams that is mentioned as committed to USC in the tweet mentioned in this post?
Wow.
On the morning of April 23, their group text blew up. Players were called into exit meetings with Sanders and told they couldn’t play at CU. One described the experience as going to see the Grim Reaper. Sowell’s meeting was his first one-on-one conversation with the head coach.
The following morning, Sowell said, players were locked out of Colorado’s football facility. They couldn’t grab their things from the locker room. They couldn’t grab a meal at the training table.
Shame on Colorado for allowing student-athletes in good standing to be treated like that.
No pretense of it being anything other than a business. Alas they may just be ahead of the times...
What business doesn’t at least let you box up your crap and walk out? I’ve had to deal with a couple layoffs, and this is just straight up cruel.
While the media celebrated Sanders. Forgive me, oh lordy, I was excited, too. Count me FIRMLY among those who hope to see him fail, now, at CU.
Listening to Saban talk about Mike ... pure Gold. Saban knows football.
Saban’s a pundit now, and he’s always had good business sense. He has to show he’s more than a Tide homer to broaden his appeal, so praising Sainristil is a smart move because he was on the team that ended his coaching career.
Saban knows football, but that feelingsball gushing was over-the-top for him. Sounds like he’s polishing his act, which TBF is what a professional entertainer would do, but if that’s how he’s rolling then I wouldn’t take much of what he says seriously.
Feelingsball? His team prepped for weeks to play U-M (and surely studied Sainristil quite a bit). How is that feelingsball?
The courts have made it clear that the concept of paying universities to televise athletic events makes athletes employees of a sort. The concept of "amateur" is meaningless. That was even conveniently discarded long ago in the U.S. for the Olympics when the basketball people complained that they weren't winning enough.
The conferences are playing catch-up here. And they might trap themselves if they continue to grant rights as an umbrella encompassing all sports, aside from the playoff/NCAA tournament.
If revenue sharing cascades down to the notion that rights fees must be shared with all sports (and that will be litigated, undoubtedly), then only a handful of universities will be able to afford sports. Some might try to hang on, but they will fall further and further behind.
Caitlin Clark arrived at the worst possible time for this. She generated enormous value for the handful of telecasts that drew millions - culminating in, what was it, 19 million viewers for the championship game? ABC must have made a bundle having those rights. Clark signed a shoe deal for about $28 million, and she's probably worth it.
What now? Women's basketball surely got a bump, but what kind of bump? The bidding process won't be based on an assumption that the Clark phenomenon is permanent - the difference in ratings from the games she played in to ratings in other games is huge. However, as comments from sportswriters and others indicate, there's a perception out there that women's basketball players deserve huge contracts.
I mention all this because if revenue sharing in the Big Ten, for example, requires half the television rights revenue and that is spread out among all the athletes at a university and scholarships aren't considered payment, non-revenue sports suddenly cost maybe $20 million per year more than they did. Michigan can absorb that, but most Big Ten schools can't. Non-majors that offer athletic scholarships fund their programs from donations, student and government fees. Even football. Akron concluded a few years ago that it should discontinue football, but didn't because it would have required leaving the MAC and a one-time fee that they simply couldn't afford.
We say that players should earn a good portion of the money they bring in. I agree. It's fair. But I think it would surprise sportswriters and most people out there to realize that for at least 99% of scholarship athletes, their scholarship is worth a lot more than the revenue they bring in.
I hope all of this doesn't end up destroying college athletics in order to give that 1% their deserved payday.
Deion flaming out? Where's my popcorn?
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