Basketball: M v MSU 2020-21 starting 5 comparison.
Let's compare a projected starting five.
PG: Watts v Brooks. Watts has more untapped ability but Brooks is experienced and a bit underrated. I could favor either one for this season. Most project Watts as an NBA player which Brooks is not likely to be. So edge to Watts.
SG: Langford v. Brown. Who knows for sure what either player will bring to the table this year but assuming Brown plays I will give him the edge here given Langford coming off injury and in any case I don't think Langford met his 5* rating even when he was playing. Edge to Brown
SF: Henry v Livers. Depends on the development of Henry. Most have him pegged as an NBA player but has been a bit raw and inconsistent so far. Another interesting matchup but will give the edge to Livers
PF: Hauser v Wagner. I think here we have a clear edge to Wagner. Wagner is a potential player of the year in the NBA and a likely 1st round draft pick. Hauser may or may not meet Sparty expectations but even in the best case will not match Wagner. Clear edge to Wagner
C: Davis v Bingham. Tough call here. I was not that impressed with Bingham in our games last year against Sparty. Probably has more upside than Davis but Davis surprised us at the end of last year. Then again Davis is coming off surgery so slight edge to Bingham.
So starting 5 v starting 5 I go 3-2 for the good guys. Obviously I am doing something wrong as pundits are picking MSU as Big 10 title contenders and put M in the next group.
August 4th, 2020 at 10:02 AM ^
Obviously for Wagner I meant potential POY in the Big10
August 4th, 2020 at 10:07 AM ^
I have decided that you are a brilliant prognosticor.
August 4th, 2020 at 10:40 AM ^
Good analysis. I think the key will be the PG play. Rocket Watts is not a natural point guard, but is very talented. How we replace Z will be everything to our season - going to miss watching "The General" run the offense and pump up the defense...
August 4th, 2020 at 10:45 AM ^
Yeah, I doubt Watts & Brooks will be the starting PG on both their teams by the end of the year. At least one of them will likely be starting at SG, but they are not point guards.
I think Watts will be the starting PG for MSU. If Watts doesn't end up as the starting PG, it'll be because Hoggard is good enough to play PG, not because Watts isn't. And I'm not expecting Hoggard to come in and be a starting Big Ten point guard right off the bat.
August 4th, 2020 at 10:43 AM ^
Really hard to project both teams. Lots of changes with new players and players taking on larger roles. Even Hauser v Wagner, Wagner projects as the better NBA prospect, but Hauser is 2 years removed from a promising freshman year. Who knows how both will progressed? Brooks v Watts: Watts was not very good last year and Brooks has steadily improved every year. I wouldn't be entirely comfortable with either as the starting PG, but I have more confidence Brooks.
August 4th, 2020 at 10:49 AM ^
These types of pointless comparisons are fun, so I appreciate you starting the dialog. With that being said, I have some disagreements with your list:
- I think Smith is starting at PG and Brooks at SG. I actually think that may be true even if Brown gets his waiver. I think he's the perfect 6th man who can come in off the bench and replace anyone in the 1-4 spots (shifting people around). Your starting lineup proposal does not have one sure ball-handler in it - with Brooks being average.
- You allude to this, but I'm not sure Brown or Langford will play this year, which makes it hard to project right now.
- Livers is our PF and Wagner is our SF. Not sure why you flipped them. They actually match up better with their MSU counterparts that way too.
- I don't think Davis is our starting center given that he's out until October with his shoulder and is best suited as a 12-15mpg guy. I think it will be Johns in game #1. Same for MSU, most people think Marble is the likely starter.
What makes both teams interesting this year is that they are both trying to figure out the PG and C positions while banking on consistent performance from their PF and hope for an NBA leap from their SF. I think Watts has a higher ceiling than Smith/Brooks but I'm less clear on what happens with MSU if Langford is still hurt or they need to go to the bench at either guard spot.
August 4th, 2020 at 11:09 AM ^
I see Dickinson starting at Center eventually this coming season. He is too big and too good.
August 4th, 2020 at 11:16 AM ^
MSU has some massive backcourt depth issues if Langford can't go.
PG - Watts/Loyer/Hoggard (true frosh)
SG - Langford/Watts
SF - Henry/Brown
Take Langford out of there and you can move a SF to SG or Watts to SG and start Loyer - and have basically no back-ups. They need Langford to be healthy more than anything.
August 4th, 2020 at 11:22 AM ^
MSU needs to see big improvements from both Watts and Loyer to be competitive. Loyer in particular struggled to give competitive minutes in Big Ten play.
Hoggard could be the wildcard. Is he expected to compete for time?
August 4th, 2020 at 11:47 AM ^
I honestly don't know much about him other than he's a freshman point guard in an Izzo system, so expectations should probably be pretty moderate. Unless he can play Big Ten-level defense out of the gate.
It probably wouldn't take much for him to pass Loyer (in a normal year).
August 4th, 2020 at 11:57 AM ^
While Watts did struggle a lot the first few weeks of the season (and may never be an efficient shooter), he had a great finish to the season and I think will thrive with the ball in his hands rather than playing off Winston.
I do agree that depth at PG/SG is going to be a challenge since Loyer was barely playable last year, Hoggard is a true-freshman (with lots of potential), Landford has chronic injury issues, Brown hasn't been consistent and may be more of a 3, and Watts is more of a combo guard than a true PG.
Backcourt depth is definitely an issue. I wouldn't be surprised to see Hoggard and Loyer get minutes at the shooting guard spot, especially if Brown or Henry get in foul trouble or banged up. In an emergency, Malik Hall might be able to slide over and play on the wing, but that's definitely not ideal
August 4th, 2020 at 11:55 AM ^
In terms of talent, no question that Watts is far superior to Brooks. Whether that translates to more production in a Tom Izzo system remains to be seen.
Other than that, I think you're really underselling Hauser. He's a superior offensive player to Wagner in nearly every skill facet. Probably relatively even impact from both next year.
In terms of our team next year, we have tons of questions at the PG spot and can we be adequate defensively at the C spot.
August 4th, 2020 at 12:39 PM ^
Matt - I think Hauser is going to be key for MSU this season and likely will be a focal point of their offense. I also agree that his shooting numbers are impressive so far. But I'm surprised you say he's a superior offensive player to Wagner in nearly every skill facet.
- Hauser will play the 4 and match-up against Livers, not Wagner. (irrelevant for this conversation, but still thought it worth clarifying that he and Wagner play different positions/roles)
- Hauser didn't even crack 10ppg in his one season for Marquette. I know there were other good players on that team, but he was 2ppg less than Franz in more minutes.
- His 3pt shooting is great, but his overall shooting numbers are less than Franz.
- Despite being bigger and playing more in the front court, he averaged fewer rebounds.
I haven't seen him play and I have no doubt that he will be good - just felt like it was a strong statement to say he's clearly better than Wagner.
August 4th, 2020 at 12:53 PM ^
Never said Hauser is clearly better than Franz as a payer, but I did say that he’s superior offensively in most skill facets. There’s no question Hauser is a vastly superior shooter and passer.
Reb% are virtually identical.
I like Franz more as a defender and that’s why I think net impact is likely to be relatively even.
Thanks for clarifying....though I'm surprised a player that's as good of a shooter as him only averaged 9.6ppg while playing over 30mpg. Will be interesting to see how his skills translate into MSU this year. He could have been a star with Winston passing to him on the wing.
Playing with Markus Howard can do that. He was third on the team in scoring behind Howard and the elder Hauser
I see Wagner Gained 15 lbs and up to 220 . Is it true he has got even taller ? The player nobody is talking about is Terrance Williams ! 6-7 240 and high upside
<brooks
langford>
livers>
Hauser=wagner
Bingham>
If anything im leaning towards Hauser>Wagner. Also i think theres no way Davis starts the whole year. He has improved a lot but will get exposed by Garza, Cockburn , whoever starts at C for wisconsin (maybe Reuvers). Its going to be a big problem if Dickinson or maybe Johns is not good enough to start over Davis imo. I hope we have a good year against MSU because its not going to be pretty when Emoni Bates and the other 5 stars arrive ): .
I struggle not to laugh at the thought of Eli Brooks even being in the conversation with Rocket Watts. I don't know if Watts is necessarily an NBA player, but is there anyone that wouldn't trade Brooks for Watts if such a thing was possible?
PG: Watts > Brooks. I actually like Brooks, but Watts played a huge role in MSU's late-season charge, and he actually played several possessions at point guard during that run and did pretty well. I'm expecting a big year from Watts.
SG: ? = ?. As the OP noted, we don't yet know what players will be starting here or how good they will be. Neither team has the advantage here.
SF: Henry >= Wagner. This one is close, but I'd give the slight edge to Henry, mainly because he's a better defender and passer. Henry also had a slightly better 3-pt percentage, but it's close enough to call outside shooting a wash.
PF: Hauser < Livers. Hauser has a lot of potential, but Livers has already established himself as one of the better players in the conference.
C: ? = ?. Similar to the SG position, we don't know what these positions will look like.
August 6th, 2020 at 11:39 AM ^
Bench will be huge.