WTKA Roundtable 5/11/2023: I Like 'Em All
TCU After UFR:
- How disjoined was the offense? Lots because they weren't calling their run game on 3rd & 2, and they weren't calling their passing game on 2nd & long.
- Play-action was getting 25 yards per play because TCU was not going to leave their safeties back. They should have run the flea-flicker on the next play, and again after that, until the safety stayed back.
- RUN OUTSIDE! Frustrating that they didn't use the end-arounds and McCarthy's legs in the offense until very late in the game.
- Perspective: They still put up 45 points despite two turnovers inside the 2, a horrible touchdown-overturning review, and two pick-sixes.
- Constant wins against their nose didn't count because they'd throw another LB inside and bring down the safety. First Iso was fool's gold: Edwards beat a safety who came down at 3 yards.
- Michigan took way too long to figure out they could PA and attack on the edges.
- Passing game: haven't developed some of the things you do with a QB like JJ. Remember he was a young QB though. JJ's mechanics caused the first turnover, his lack of input contributed to the 2nd one.
- Guessing teams will use this strategy next year instead of sitting back like Iowa did. Teams are going to interpret Illinois/OSU/TCU as successes, and Kirk Campbell was part of the PSU Bombs Over Baghdad offense.
- QB run game? Michigan used a dumbed down version of the Ravens tricks with Lamar Jackson, but college players are too well trained and become free hitters. Find a medium between that and the way PSU beat the hell out of Trace McSorley and Sean Clifford.
Q&A Portion
- Breakout WR: Tyler Morris, then O'Leary, then Clemons is the order right now via Sam. Morris a chemistry with JJ, see him as a Ronnie Bell type. Seth notes Morris was on the field in high-leverage situations. O'Leary is a type they don't have with anyone else. Clemons is a year away; he's your next CJ.
- Mullings as a runner: They hadn't developed him for that situation. Seth: Fullbacks practice that dive play a million times because it's a high-rate fumble situation with how fast the snap comes. Appreciation for Khalid Hill: need a guy to spend time practicing that, and Mullings was practicing linebacker.
- Helow to Partridge? McNamara to McCarthy. LB is hard to coach, Barrett was a success story, Colson you wanted to see him further along after two years of starting. Helow did some work on the recruiting trail. Ernest Hausmann could be the best of them.
Portal Portal
- Spin from MSU is pathetic but they can't say the truth, which is outside of things every P5 school has (money, playing time) there's nothing to be loyal to.
- Hunter Dickinson: Tried the soft way, now he's speaking truth. Probably underrating what he got at Michigan because he's only talking about the real NIL versus projections—basketball, Dickinson excitement also came in well below projections. That's the NIL from the John Q. fans, which is our business too, and the amount of money you make in that business is correlated to success.
- NIL vs "NIL." The NIL from major donors is what he's getting from Kansas. When you sit down with these schools they tell you want the deal is, because they're used to operating that way. Michigan will get there, but even if the program is on board, their donors also need to be converted from old school thinking, and that's going to take time. Football donors are there; the basketball collective effort isn't there yet.
[Hit the JUMP for the player, and video and stuff]
You can catch the entire episode on Michigan Insider's podcast stream.
Segment two is here. You can watch the video here:
MGoBlog Roundtable https://t.co/0wTJltX4ON
— Sam Webb (@SamWebb77) May 11, 2023
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Twenty-five yards per play on play-action is too many.
So Michigan offensive coaching was the reason we lost to TCU. Exactly what I was thinking during the game.
As long as it's free to point fingers, what about the equipment manager? It was pretty clear from the beginning of the game that the field was an issue. I'm not sure what could have been done before or during the game to prepare for this (longer cleats?), but I turned to my son after the first few plays and said to him that the equipment manager might end up being the MVP of the game. Unfortunately, that didn't happen.
100p agree on the footing. We saw the same thing when the Super Bowl was played here, that field is incredibly slippery. And somehow it seemed to effect M's players far more often than TCU's. It wasn't limited to offense of course; when Mazi Smith whiffed on that sack, most of the issue (to me) seemed to be lack of traction.
Maybe it's just my hyper-fandom and PTSD kicking in, but I feel like this happens to Michigan way more often than it should on away/bowl games, and I feel like I spend the entire game watching the opponent plant a foot in the ground and cut effectively while we slide around like we're on ice skates.
I said in the article, in the writeup, during the show multiple times: Put this all in perspective. Brian also says "put this in perspective." And what do you do? Remove all perspective. They scored 45 points that was really 52. The point of doing this isn't to make blanket statements about who "lost" the game. It's to understand all the parts that went into the game, and yes, focus on things they can improve. But perspective is really important to that.
This was probably our worst offensive game and defensive game of the year (maybe excepting Illinois for offense), and we scored 45 points. Had the offense changed 4 plays it's 55-38. Had TCU got 3 of their TOs back tho, and it's 38-38. We played poorly and lost a tight game against a team that we, and frankly everyone other than Georgia, underrated. And so we finished #3 in the country
Offense still scored but they didn't exploit the safety not staying back, and that was the difference. Brian was right when he said to run the flea flicker again and again until they leave the safety back. Hard to believe we lost that game.
I agree with Seth -- we do fail to put things in perspective; we're fans -- that's what we do.
At the same time, this isn't the first time we've seen these issues. I think our concerns are that the failures many of us have written about are a feature of the Harbaugh offense and not a bug. And our (over)reactions are out of desperation. We're just looking for some signs of hope that the offense will take more of what the defense gives them.
In perspective -- yes, it was a great year offensively and the offense scored a lot against TCU. But that doesn't excuse the bad play calls in the first half. Good year, good talent, good coaching for the most part. But we lost that one game for a reason...
I mean yes and no. Some of the things that happened were just straight up chance. We played our worst game of the whole season by far. 1 or 2 of those mistakes goes the other way and we win
Haven't listened yet, but will this afternoon. But based on this summary and Seth's UFR from the TCU game, I'm a bit worried about Moore's play calling. I think he's a great OL coach, but is there anything to give us confidence that we'll punish teams early and often for overplaying the run like TCU did? Hopefully the TCU game was a good learning experience.
Moore & Harbaugh better be very clear on the IL/TCU/OSU approach to defending Michigan and be ready to punish it hard. I expect they will see versions of it from a lot of teams this year, especially OSU’s Big 12 coordinator.
I think that some of Michigan’s issues 2015-2020 were that we wanted to be the team that could run it down the throat of everyone that we played but we never quite good enough to do so for a variety of reasons. Now, we are that team (Georgia and Bama non-withstanding) and have to expect teams are going to take hyper-aggressive measures to deal with it.
Michigan needs to be comfortable passing to opening up the running game. There’s no other way to put it. I hope Harbaugh and company aren’t too stubborn to accept this but on a positive note we did beat OSU with this strategy in 2022, although it was probably out of necessity with Edwards being banged up and Corum out.
"Took too long" for the play calling to adjust to TCU selling out on the run. Translation: We will stubbornly continue to do what we do because it will work.
I certainly hope that having one OC helps this coming year, but was it having two OC's vs. TCU that led to the difficulty adapting to what their D was giving us? Or was it Harbaugh stubbornly sticking with his game plan which had worked all year?
Inquiring minds want to know. If we make the CFP again this coming season the answer may determine if we win a playoff game or two or if we do not.
Am I wrong in saying we DID shift the game plan against OSU tho? I think against both TCU and OSU we showed an explosive counterpunch when teams sell out against the run. In TCU we made way too many mistakes - 3 trips inside the TCU 3 with just 3 points, 2x pick sixes - and lost the game by 6. Illinois was the only one that had the DBs that could really pull that off - altho I imagine Iowa and Penn State would be capable of it.
Not to say we should ignore it - we'll need to be better to be a 13 win team next year, let alone our first ever 14 win team - but I also don't know that I'd see OSU and TCU as "successful" in doing that. Hopefully a more mature JJ really does blow the top off of this offense.
Looking forward to '23, I'm guessing we'll be tested in this very regard by Rutgers. They've played us tough the last couple of years and will come ready to stop the run, Schiano is no fool and watched the Fiesta Bowl, and has ok DBs. If we want to punish teams for it, if we want our offense to adapt, we will find out before September is done.
I think we did shift the game plan against OSU--bc we respected them from the get go. IMHO we did not show TCU the same level of respect--and when we hit the long run on the first play of the game we assumed that they couldn't stop us. As we all know that play was an anomaly--as Sam said in the roundtable it was "fool's gold." So in sum, my question is really about the TCU game and not relevant to the OSU game.
Our offense is good, but it's what the defense does, that determines how far we go.
"Michigan took way too long to figure out they could ..."
That jumped out at me, too. It's a UM tradition dating back to Schembechler.
Shifting topics, here's another winner IMO:
When you sit down with these schools they tell you want the deal is, because they're used to operating that way.
"Bag" schools would be expected to do better in the early NIL days.
Exactly--as one who grew up during the Schembechler era I think Harbaugh's stubbornness is very similar to Bo's--to a point. Harbaugh really looked himself in the mirror after the 2020 season and made significant changes to his staff and his approach, which may bode well for this coming season in relation to both the passing game and strategically using JJ as a runner.
JBL -- this it what gives me hope. Harbaugh has shown that he is willing and able to recognize issues and take steps to improve his own coaching. It's clear how he needs to talk the next step(s), and I hope he's willing and able to do that.
I have hope about this too. It may in fact be the difference between us and OSU at this point. It remains to be seen if after getting manhandled by us two years in a row, Ryan Day is willing to look himself in the mirror and make changes in his approach to playing Michigan.
If he brushes it off and assumes that it can't/won't happen again (e.g. his existing approach works--see his fantastic overall W-L record and the fact that he almost beat UGA in last year's CFP), and then we beat them up again this coming season, Day's job will be in jeopardy even if Michigan is his only loss.
Harbaugh has indeed shown the ability to honestly assess what's working and what needs to be changed. The big caveat there is that Biff Poggi is no longer on staff and he was apparently the consigliere who encouraged Harbaugh to make that honest assessment and adjust accordingly. Only time will tell but personally I feel optimistic.
Astute comments. If OSU adjusts based on the TCU game, then Harbaugh needs to be willing to switch up the game plan. This flexibility is what would put us firmly in the national title conversation. Without it, we are still Big Ten Champion - level, but we won't be able to take the next step.
I believe Harbaugh CAN develop this, and I hope he does.
Can someone explain that quote. Did lloyd say it?
Lloyd said, "I like 'em both," during the days Brady and Henson were battling for the starting QB job.
I wish you well, Hunter
Thanks for pointing out the outside run game (or lack of it). That was something that I noticed and irritated me greatly, because there were gains to be had running to the boundaries. Georgia did it to great effect when they played them. M's run game calling made life much easier for their average LBs.
Unless I misunderstood Seth, I thought he said that Hausmann might be our best LB overall... and not just among the backups, but ahead of Colson and Barrett. If I did hear it correctly, then that is interesting.
I said he could become the best of the bunch. Probably not this year, but when their Michigan careers are over, I wouldn't be against it right now.
The perpetual playcalling issues on offense are frustrating, but they scored 45 points which should've been 52 so they did their job. The only part of the team which definitely failed against TCU was the run defense. Could've easily still won if we hadn't given up 9 yards a carry to a backup.
Hmm I wonder what po$$ibly could be getting M$U back on track with ba$ketball recruiting...
They definitely don't have a former walk on billionaire financing their whole basketball program or anything
Ok. Can we have a discussion about Brian's flexibility? I mean, holy shit he's stretching his arms behind his back (beginning at 29:05) and you can't even see his shoulders. Is he a yoga master or something?
Perspective, yes. BUT, it's pretty clear now that a number of the issues the Michigan offense had in the game are systemic. That's a problem if we want to get to the next level and challenge for national titles.
It's a nice problem to have, since even with the offensive philosophy the way it is, we are a CFP-level team. That being said however, the frustrating thing is it's not necessary to have the problem.
Put another way....yes, we scored 45, but with a better offensive philosophy / game plan, we could have scored in the 60s.
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