With the season unceremoniously terminated there's nothing to do but look to the future.

2020 finally sorts itself out

This annual series spent a lot of time pointing out that Michigan had a hockey team worth of hockey players lined up for 2020 and that something had to give. Various somethings did and now it's time to regard the departed, in rough order of deletion:

• F Antonio Stranges: Michigan commitment was a placeholder so he would drop to the second round and go play for London in the OHL. Currently projected as a second-round pick.
• F Cole Perfetti: Same as Stranges except an OHL team called his bluff in the first round and signed him. Projected as a top ten pick. Evidently never really a commit so that blunts the pain a bit.
• D Mitchell Smith: Never likely to stick and did not, signing with his local OHL team. Does not appear draftable.
• F Austen Swankler: defected to OHL about 30 seconds after an article in his local paper in which he seemed set on Michigan. Might get drafted late. 45 points in 59 OHL games in draft year means he had a decent shot at being a scoring line forward.
• F Andrei Bakanov: Had a rough transition to the USHL, scoring 14 points in 51 games, and then left for the OHL after going high in their import draft. Not doing so hot there, either, but potential late-round selection in the upcoming draft. 23 points in 55 OHL games is pretty meh. Moffatt track.
• F Nicholas Zabaneh: decommitted in November; twitter bio now states he's headed to BU. Had a solid USHL year with 34 points in 48 games.
• D Nick Bochen: Flipped to Quinnipiac in December, almost certainly because QU would take him in this class and Michigan asked him to defer.
• F Patrick Guzzo: Flipped to Ohio State, again because OSU would take him immediately and M probably wanted him to defer.
• F Dylan Wendt: Has decommitted and is currently on the market.
• F Cassidy Bowes. Flipped to UConn.
• D Jake Harrison has a strikethrough on Chris Heisenberg's comprehensive list of college hockey recruits but is not currently listed as a commit elsewhere. I couldn't find anything explaining why.

That is eleven decommitments, five to the OHL and six to other college teams. One (Perfetti) is elite, a second (Stranges) would have been a super fun Hensick-ish college player, three others (Swankler, Guzzo, and Zabaneh) were/are solid bets to be productive college players but are more or less interchangeable with the last couple Fs in the class. The other guys are a bit marginal.

[After THE JUMP: Larkins abound]

So who's left?

After all that Michigan has a class of dudes. All of these gentlemen except the two Chicago Steel players (Power, Brisson) have announced they've signed letters of intent, which is not a guarantee but is a pretty good indicator of who Michigan intends to have on campus this fall. Power explicitly stated he was coming in this year during a podcast interview a couple months ago. Assuming Brisson is coming in is no longer much of an assumption since Michigan has five F spots and 5 2020 F commits now.

The class:

G Erik Portillo. Portillo is a giant Swede who got drafted by the Sabres in the third round last year. He moved to the USHL in anticipation of attending Michigan next year and put up a .915 with Dubuque, good for third in the league. Goalie scouting is usually ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ but Elite Prospects put out a detailed report after the draft that's worth checking out if you want to drill down.

One complicating factor: when Portillo committed Michigan was alternating two goalies with save percentages in the .800s. A year later Strauss Mann is among the national leaders in save percentage. Mann is undrafted, un-benchable, and has two more years of eligibility. Portillo will be 20 in September and might be eyeing greener pastures. This is entirely speculation on my part, but it's something to keep an eye on.

REMINDER - Owen is a defenseman, technically https://t.co/8ToVaC3e6Z pic.twitter.com/3H36f8Gz9Z

— x-Chicago Steel (@ChicagoSteel) March 7, 2020

D Owen Power. Michigan's lone holdout from their attempts to raid the top end of the OHL draft, but he's a doozy of a holdout. Power is the leading scorer amongst USHL defensemen in his draft –1 year with a 12-28-40 line in 45 games. He is also 6'5". Unsurprisingly, Power is projected at the top end of the 2021 draft. TSN's Craig Button ranked him second overall in his initial 2021 rankings…

shows outstanding sense and feel for the game, which allows him to dominate. When you combine his poise in all situations with his considerable size, you get a player who commands space and makes life very difficult for opponents.

…and while that is an outlier virtually no one venturing early guesses leaves him out of the top 15. Power gets talked up as the best of both worlds. He has a ton of offensive production and this was Steve Kournianos's take on the other half of his D pairing when that guy showed up at the WJAC:

Owen Power['s] smothering style and responsible play has allowed Reid to take chances deep into opposing territory, almost as if he were a fourth forward.

The Athletic's Scott Wheeler:

There aren’t a lot of 17-year-old 6-foot-5 defenders in recent memory — or ever — who’ve shown Powers’ consistent ability to make plays. He’s got the qualities you’d expect out of a player his size who is in the top-five debate in any draft class: he uses his length well to force players wide off the rush and cover a lot of ice in the defensive zone, plus he’s got a heavy shot. But he’s also got skills that aren’t typical for a player his size; he rarely mishandles the puck (at least relative to his length), he uses his stick more than his physicality to win battles and come out with possession to make a play and he’s mobile for a player who is still growing and already weighs over 200 pounds. How dynamic can he be? Will he be a true PP1 guy at the NHL level? Those are tougher questions to answer but we have a full year ahead to figure it out!

Power's numbers may be a tad inflated by the surrounding talent on the Steel; he does not seem to be on the same level as a Werenski or a Hughes when it comes to sheer talent with the puck. But if he's a notch or two removed from that and also a 6'5" eraser… uh yes please.

Truscott is this year's most dramatically lit recruit

D Jacob Truscott. Truscott is an NTDP defenseman in the mold of most Michigan D commits: puck moving is mandatory, and if you've got size it's a bonus. Truscott looks like he'll get drafted somewhere late. When I saw him in the NTDP exhibition he didn't stand out either way. He was calm but unspectacular with the puck; aside from one defensive error there wasn't much to say.

Take that with a grain of salt. I am not a hockey scout so the niceties of what makes one relatively quiet defenseman good and another bad aren't instantly identifiable; I need a fair chunk of a season before I form opinions about guys who aren't whizbang assassins or dudes who insist on firing the puck into the opposition's shin pads no matter how obvious the pending blocked shot is about to be.

FWIW, "subtle and not astounding" is the consensus opinion. Kournianos:

pained me to drop [him] in my latest rankings …does so many things at a high level while often serving as a safety net for his offensive-inclined partner Owen Gallatin. He has good size and excellent mobility; not only for his straight-line speed but also for his balance and agility in tight spaces; or when handling pressure from the forecheck. … made a perfect 100-foot feed to Dylan Peterson that led to Landon Slaggert’s goal that made the score 4-1, and his impressive skate-to-stick transition on his wrister that handcuffed Logan Stein capped the scoring in the third. … smart player who seems to leave it all out on the ice.

Chris Dilks:

"Extremely steady and reliable. … looked the most comfortable of the defensemen against the faster competition"

A close NTDP observer on Hockey's Future:

…puck-moving defenseman with very good skating and a high hockey IQ at around 6'1. He's not that flashy, but does have good offensive ability, and also does well in his own zone. … increased his stock a lot this season, in my opinion. I don't know how high his upside is, but there aren't any real weaknesses to how he plays the game.

He was the NTDP's second leading D scorer with 21 points and did get second PP unit time for them in the exhibition. He should be a solid option next year and evolve into a top second pairing option over the course of his career.

F Thomas Bordeleau. The NTDP's top scorer with 46 points in 47 games, 16 of them against D-I college competition, and a likely second-round pick in the upcoming draft.

Bordeleau jumped out to me when the NTDP visited Yost for their annual exhibition. He assisted on three of the NTDP's four goals and was the first guy out on the penalty kill. He's a playmaking center who has a preternatural ability to know where his teammates are and has a hockey IQ befitting his last name.

Jake Sanderson makes the entry and gives to Thomas Bordeleau, who finds Eamon Powell with a gorgeous cross ice pass for the finish. #NTDP #WeAreBC #GoBlue #UNDproud pic.twitter.com/WyrwJoaBkx

— Stars n’ Stripes Hockey (@StarsStripesHKY) February 28, 2020

At Yost, Bordeleau had the primary assist on a shorthanded goal where he delayed his zone entry on a two on one to give himself a passing angle that the defender had a hard time dealing with; he also threaded several seeing-eye passes through traffic. The video embedded to start this section is another example of Bordeleau manipulating space to give himself passing angles.

Predators blog On The Forecheck has an extensive scouting report on Bordeleau worth checking out:

He did have a couple of defensive blips in the Yost exhibition, and the On The Forecheck scouting report goes over a couple of potential concerns there. Nobody mentions his gritty grit toughness; he is pretty small.

From Michigan's perspective the latter is an asset since it'll keep him on campus a bit longer. Bordeleau will center one of Michigan's top two lines and should instantly improve the power play. I look forward to seeing a cross ice pass on a two-on-one successfully completed for the first time* since Hensick left.

*[approximately]

the hockey equivalent of killing a million flunkies with your pinky finger

F Kent Johnson. The BCHL's top scorer by a million miles with a 41-60-101(!) line in 52 games. Johnson is flair embodied:

A jersey-flapping forward with a tremendous amount if flair and pizzazz on or off the puck … shifted over to wing rather than play his natural center position, but it didn’t matter — he dominated the puck and showed incredible agility, balance, and edgework while controlling it cleanly in full flight. It only takes a few shifts to realize that Johnson certainly isn’t lacking in the confidence department, and it’s not common to see a forward of his size combine power and grace into his skating stride.

This was the year the Mike Legg goal became a thing people did semi-regularly; Johnson scored it twice.

Wheeler:

He’s dynamic in the offensive zone (more so than off the rush), where he’s able to make plays through traffic, beat defenders one-on-one with his puck protection skill and score from tough angles.

Kent Johnson has hit 100 points in the BCHL at 17. An electrifying talent, Johnson has a ridiculous skill and IQ level that outclasses all of the BCHL. He’ll be off to the Univ of Michigan for his draft year next season.

52GP 41G 60A 101TP

Johnson is my #6 for the #2021NHLDraft pic.twitter.com/x3vCC61mG5

— TPEHockey (@TPEHockey) February 18, 2020

There is a very recent comparable to Johnson's outlandish BCHL scoring numbers: Alex Newhook. Newhook put up 102 points with the Victoria Grizzlies last year, got drafted 16th overall, and immediately became a PPG scorer at Boston College. More than a PPG, actually, with a 19-23-42 line in 34 games. That tied for the team lead. Johnson may have even more upside: he's eight months younger than Newhook was during his final BCHL season.

Johnson will walk onto a scoring line and is a pretty decent bet to lead the team—and maybe the conference—in scoring. He should go in the top half of the first round in 2021; hopefully Michigan gets two years out of him.

F Brendan Brisson. Brisson is the son of NHL superagent Pat Brisson and finished his rookie USHL season a hair behind his teammate Sam Colangelo for the per game scoring title. Context is important: this year's Chicago Steel were probably the greatest team in USHL history. The league's top five PPG scorers are Steel players. 2021 Michigan commit Mackie Samoskevich is being touted as a fringe first round pick in 2021 and he got stuck on 34 points because he couldn't get any power play time.

Brisson helped bolster his place by being the top forward at the WJAC:

A slick playmaker with excellent speed and a high compete level, Brisson was one of the leading threats for the Americans in terms of getting the puck through center and entering the zone cleanly, and providing his linemates with chances to score. He opened the scoring early in the second period with a one-timer from the right circle and remained incredibly active for the rest of the contest. Every aspect of Brisson’s skating is on the plus side, specifically his quick first step and edges as he’s leaned on. He is a decisive and confident center who understands his role and displays advanced hockey sense. Brisson never once seemed deterred by traffic near the line, and on several occasions simply powered past defensemen who normally are quite good at breaking up entries up high.

Scoring a zillion one timers also didn't hurt. Brisson has some Kyle Connor in his game.

#WJAC: A little @ChicagoSteel chemistry on display -- Gunnarwolfe Fontaine with a perfect cross-ice feed to Brendan Brisson, who absolutely hammers it top shelf. Pro-level stuff right there. Team USA leads Russia 3-1 after 40. pic.twitter.com/iPCUFAcukc

— Steve Kournianos (@TheDraftAnalyst) December 13, 2019

@YostBuilt noted Brisson scored a ton of these goals this season.

Brisson's shot up draft boards over the course of the season and is solidly in the first round on about half of them. Elite Prospects has Brisson and Bordeleau back to back at 18 and 19; Craig Button had Brisson 17th in late January; Kournianos had him 28th.

Brisson might have a slightly tough transition because he's a smaller player but his one timer should immediately feature as a prime weapon on the power play and I'd be surprised if he didn't quickly get slotted on the second line (at worst).

F Philippe Lapointe. Lapointe is former Red Wing Martin Lapointe's son. He's the oldest guy in the class as it currently stands, having turned 20 a month ago. Lapointe had 39 points in 60 USHL games split between two different teams in his draft year, and then he blew up any potential evaluations about how he'd progressed by changing leagues, getting hurt for a chunk of the season, and playing with Kent Johnson. Lapointe put up 55 points in 36 games to finish second in the BCHL in PPG.

That's real good. How much of that did Johnson drive? Probably a whole hell of a lot. What does it mean for a 19 year old to put up gaudy BCHL numbers? It varies but the answer is usually "not that much." PSU's Kevin Wall put up 64 points in 49 games a year younger than Lapointe and got drafted in the sixth round. His freshman year at PSU: 26 games, 7 points. The BCHL is a very offensive league. Are Lapointe's numbers gaudy enough to expect they mean something? Eh… maybe.

Lapointe got ranked by the CSB last year but he was at the tail end and didn't actually get drafted, and it doesn't look like his BCHL season has changed minds there. Still, that level of production does move expectations a bit. Jeff Tambellini installed him as the Trail Smoke Eaters' captain immediately on his arrival, which also helps his case a bit. He also impressed in the USHL's annual prospects game. Neutral Zone:

…not a huge player but he is heavy on the forecheck and uses his strong core to win pucks. Gets to shooting spots and moved his body well to receive passes. Has a game that will translate to the next level as he has some grit/strength with vision and a quick stick. College: Michigan Grade: A

Lapointe could be somewhere between Jake Slaker (who'd be a third liner on a team with buckets of talent) and Andrew Copp. He isn't a holy lock to rip it up but his baseline expectation is several notches above the "recruit 'em all and let God sort 'em out" guys Michigan has had to take over the last couple seasons.

F Josh Groll. Like Lapointe, Groll was vaguely draftable last year, did not get drafted, and had a breakout season that probably still won't get him drafted. Groll went from 18 USHL points in 53 games to a PPG pace this year (in 41 games; he got hurt on and off). That was good for 14th in the league.

Groll appears to be in the range of guys who will be productive long term college players. He made the Hlinka team that takes the best U18 non-NTDP players to an international tournament last year and was on the World Junior A Challenge team that Brisson was on. He didn't pop out enough to warrant mention from guys who covered the tournament for NHL draft purposes; he got a B from Neutral Zone and a lunchbucket appraisal ("two-way grinding style … working hard in his own end and a cycling game in the offensive zone …laid the body on the forecheck, won pucks and started the grind to wear down the opposition"). That'll help him as he spends a year or two on a checking line.

As we saw with Emil Ohrvall this year, overage USHL production is not a guarantee. But Groll is an entirely different ballgame than Ohrvall. Groll is a couple months away from this being his draft year. Ohrvall was 25 months older during his PPG USHL season.

So how good is this class?

It is bonkers. To translate into football rankings:

• Johnson, Power, Bordeleau, and Brisson would all be five stars even if you restrict the five star pool to ~20 kids.
• Portillo would probably be a four star ranked around 50th.
• Truscott would be a solid four star ranked around 150th.
• Lapointe and Groll would be guys hovering on the 3/4 star borderline.

Bordeleau, Johnson, and Brisson all project as first-liners and should walk onto scoring lines the instant they hit the ice this fall. Lapointe should be a productive long-term player who's something less than a star; Groll projects at about that level as well.

Is there another spot?

Michigan can fit in all the above recruits without attrition since they lose five forwards (Lockwood, Hayhurst, Slaker, Pastujov, and Winborg), a goalie (Lavigne), and two D (Luce, Martin). They may not have money available for full rides for everyone since Winborg probably wasn't on a full ride but everyone else likely was.

There might be a D spot since Michigan also lost grad transfer Shane Switzer. Switzer got two games last year and was probably paying his own way. Michigan could replace him; they could also suffer attrition if Cam York decides to sign with the Flyers. So there might be a walk-on spot; there might be a full ride. There might be both.

Michigan still has three committed D who are in a state of limbo. They are Steve Holtz, Ethan Szmagaj, and Cole McWard.

Holtz is a Michigan native who is out of junior eligibility. He's coming off a decently productive (and healthy) BCHL season; he missed about half of each of his previous two years in the USHL. He fits the profile of a guy you'd bring in on light money and might be the guy for the Switzer spot.

Szmagaj probably isn't getting drafted but did get a C ranking in the CSB's preliminary rankings and shows up in "on the radar" sections of the internet's most insanely comprehensive draft rankings. He's less of an offensive defenseman than you'd expect from a 5'10" guy in 2020 but he was a main component of a Waterloo Black Hawks defensive corps that was the USHL's second-best defensive unit despite getting .908 goaltending.

Szmagaj's reputation has fallen a bit since his commitment—he was a potential NTDP guy at the time—because his offensive game has been stuck in neutral. He's still without a USHL goal and a paywalled scouting piece on him from Hockey Prospect Dot Com is a little testy about his lack of progress in certain areas:

Pretty quiet game from the increasingly quieter Szmagaj. His shot has improved and he’s shooting the puck more it seems. His hands and dynamically ability have not.

Neutral Zone:

Ethan Szmagaj (4.25 Star Amateur Rating, NHL Grade — C+) Defense

Ethan is an excellent skater with strong edges who is trending in the right direction. He plays with his head up looking to make quick tape to tape outlets, yet still has the poise and confidence to look for the stretch pass in transition. We feel his vision and brain are his best assets. He can run a power play, but we would like to see him get stronger and become more of a threat to shoot as he matures. Again, Ethan is trending in the right direction and is a player who will look dramatically different after 4 years at Michigan. We feel his brain and vision make him worthy of a 6th round look in Montreal.

That was from October; the more skeptical take is more recent and seems in line with the broader consensus. A guy who's barely the wrong side of draftable can be a sweet spot for college hockey, like college basketball, because you have the prospect of having a four year player who's excellent for the level. But he could easily get deferred.

Speaking of deferred, that's what happened to Cole McWard last year. Current takes on Ward are nonexistent. His numbers did pop up this year as he went from 6 points to 18 in the same number of games (48). The level of McWard discussion is such that I'd imagine he either defers or flips.

Michigan also has D Ethan Edwards, who is currently scheduled for 2021 but is going to go in the middle rounds of the 2020 draft and could get bumped up if there is attrition. He's discussed in the next post.