This Week's Obsession: Over/Under Stating Comment Count

Seth

15626485105_511c057365_k

For the first time in years Sparty's walking into this season without a single elite guy in their secondary, but Cook + that OL should more than compensate  [Eric Upchurch]

For those just joining us, this feature is the MGoBlog weekly roundtable. This week's question:

Who is Michigan's most underrated opponent? Who is the most overrated?

---------------------------------

The responses:

David:

Underrated: Penn State. I guess this counts? Penn State might be all-over-the-place rated. But for the purposes of this content, Penn State might be the team that I am most worried about after the two rivals. We've previewed and speculated at length about their defense, which was fantastic last year. And they have possibly one of the most intriguing defensive players in the league in Anthony Zettel...who's obviously from the heart of Michigan (argh!). The question mark in Happy Valley is on the opposite side of the ball. Their offense has been 'Michigan minus one year' for the past couple of seasons, so we could be in line for a Michigan 2014 offense...oh. However, IF their O-line progresses and Hackenberg is more ceiling than floor, they have a couple of skill dudes who could make that team rather formidable. Speaking of NOT formidable, glance at their schedule. Arguably, the toughest non-conference game will be playing at Temple. There is a definite argument that they COULD anter the game against Michigan at 9-1. Maybe.

Overrated: Maryland. I've seen multiple outlets predicting this game as a Maryland lean with a 50/50 at best for Michigan. I just don't buy it (Yes, Colin...'buy' not 'bye'). Maryland lost their starting QB who was their top rusher AND passer, 4 WRs -including their top 2-, 60% of their OL which wasn't that great to begin with, and six of their starting front seven. So, if Will Likely can clone himself (and enlarge those clones) and the nation's best kicker can...yeah, I don't even know. I don't think their defense will be very good. Or their offense. I think Maryland could very easily have a rough year. If Michigan can't play well in that game, that will be troublesome.

Ok, that's it! I'm off to Utah!! HARBAUGHHHHHHHHHH!!!

[After the jump: We're bullish on States and things from Utah, bearish on Gophers and stuff]

---------------------------------

Ace:

Underrated: I agree on Penn State. Draftageddon—yes, it's useful—helped us realize they have a lot of intriguing pieces if they can just figure out the O-line. That's a huge 'if', of course, but they at least bring back a lot of guys from that group. If the offense can even creep towards mediocre, their defense will carry them to a good number of wins. The combination of Anthony Zettel and Austin Johnson up front is frightening. Keep Hackenberg upright enough to start looking like the top NFL pick he's supposed to be and this team could make some noise.

15323645999_6a5ad8b2af_k 
PSU's defense returned a LOT, but really it
comes down to whether or not it's still open
season on Hack. [Upchurch]

Overrated: I want to say Michigan State, but their offense—especially their O-line—is reaching the level where it mitigates a lot of the questions they have on defense, especially in the secondary. Instead I'll go with Minnesota, who's only expected to compete in the Big Ten West because the Big Ten West is really, really bad. The Gophers lost almost the entirety of their pass offense in TE Maxx Williams, their workhorse running back in David Cobb, and the heart of their front seven in MIKE David Wilson. Other than perhaps at running back, they don't have replacements who can step in and replicate their production, and that bodes especially unwell for the offense, which threatens to be even more one-dimensional than it was last year.

---------------------------------

Adam:

Underrated: Michigan's fanbase is probably the least likely in the country to overlook a home non-conference game after the last seven years, yet I feel I'm more terrified than most of BYU. After a year cut short by injury, Taysom Hill returns to wreak havoc; he alone creates the run/pass conflicts that keep defensive coordinators up at night. Before his 2014 season was cut short by a knee injury, Hill was completing 66.7% of his passes, throwing for 7.4 YPA, and rushing for 5.38 YPC. With that kind of versatility it comes as no surprise that Hill committed to Stanford in 2009 before going on a mission trip and decomitting after Jim Harbaugh left. When Harbaugh's doing the blank-look shark stare thing he isn't processing what the person in front of him is asking, but rather trying to figure out how to make his QB more like Hill. In fact, Hill texted Harbaugh to tell him how excited he was to play against him at Michigan Stadium. Harbaugh's response? "I'm not looking forward to playing you, my friend."

Overrated: I'm going to echo Ace and say Minnesota. As he mentioned, Draftageddon is a useful tool for figuring out team's strengths and weaknesses, and Minnesota got weaker in so many areas between 2014 and 2015. Minnesota spent the spring experimenting with a no-huddle offense, but they've since scrapped it; with it went my concern over matching up with their offense. Their secondary does feature two quality players in Eric Murray and Briean Boddy-Calhoun, but I don't think they'll be enough to counter losing the two cogs that kept Minnesota's offense moving in 2014.

---------------------------------

Seth:

Underrated: You guys have already beaten the PSU thing to death and Adam took BYU. I'm also worried about Utah. They're a tough team to pin down because last year they played in a super tough division (Colorado was the only unranked Pac12 South team) plus Oregon and Stanford, yet went 9-4. Their defense got manhandled by the uber spreads. On the other hand they lost at home to WSU. Travis Wilson has an annoying habit of being very good early in the season, then dramatically losing efficiency as the hits pile up. You want to face him the last game of the season, not the first.

Overrated: Minnesota is a middling team in a bad division, but Kill's program is back to that Glen Mason point where he's able to find new 2-stars to play like 3's and 3-stars who can scrape into the lower NFL draft rounds. A fully armed and operational Harbaugh machine should have no trouble snatching one of a Mason/Kill regime's four or five annual losses, but 2015 Michigan is certainly still vulnerable. Is it 50/50? No, but neither am I comfortable giving Michigan more than a 2-in-3 shot.

I'm with David that Maryland is not the 50/50 game it's made out to be. None of their quarterback options are good, their receivers were ravaged, and they are not good at blocking. I think they'll be easier to run on this year, and they have the kind of offense Michigan's defense was born to eat up. Defensively they are bendy until a safety does something stupid, the perfect kind of defense for Harbaugh's mind games to eviscerate. Ngakoue and Likely are problems; teams that go in hoping to test Likely's size end up throwing away drives until they learn their lesson, and Michigan was certainly guilty of that last year. This is a game where the coaching upgrade will make a huge difference. Even on the road, this Michigan matches up very well against them.

Comments

SpikeFan2016

September 3rd, 2015 at 12:14 PM ^

I don't think Penn State is underrated; if anything I don't understand why everyone seems to be picking them as the unanimous #3 in the East. (they went 2-6 in the Big Ten, lost to us, all with easier cross over games and playing OSU/MSU at home). 

 

I would pick Penn State to go 9-3, but with the easiest non-conference schedule in the Big Ten, and the easiest crossover games of the teams in the East, that's not saying much. 

Hannibal.

September 3rd, 2015 at 12:53 PM ^

Dude, I'm totally with you.  I don't get the Penn State love either.  Their offense last year  was worse than the 2013 Michigan offense.  They averaged 2.9 ypc versus our 2013 3.3 ypc.  Hackenberg was significantly worse than 2013 Gardner.  They went 6-6 against a cream puff schedule.  Their skill players are mediocre as hell.  Three years of probation era recruiting plus a crappy 2011 class have left the upperclass talent pretty thin.  They are replacing two great defensive ends and they are not replacing them with talented guys -- at least not talented guys who will have experience. 

I'm going to be very disappointed if we don't win that game.

NittanyFan

September 3rd, 2015 at 1:59 PM ^

much of this is anecdotal and maybe other peoples experiences differ: but I travel a good bit, talk with folk, read all kinds of stuff on college football --- and my sense is very few people (at a national level) are even paying attention to Penn State.  

The Buckeyes are the Buckeyes, of course, MSU everybody knows too, U-M is all over folks radars this summer for obvious reasons.  But mention PSU and the sense I get from most folk is "oh yeah, them.  Yeah, I forgot they are in that division too.  Middle-of-the-road last year, perhaps they get a little better, but they'll probably be middle-of-the-road again this year."

The offense has many question marks of course.  But PSU has (a) a possible top-10 national level defense (it was 9th in FEI in 2014), and (b) a still young former 5-star QB entering his 3rd year as signal caller.  Neither of the above are bad things.  Shoot, Hackenberg's first pass Saturday will also be his first collegiate pass as a non-teenager.

Anyway, a devil's advocate view.  We'll actually start getting some empirical data points VERY VERY SOON!!!

Big Brown Jug

September 3rd, 2015 at 12:25 PM ^

I just don't get the Minnesota hype.  Pencil in losses to OSU and TCU.  Michigan, Wisconsin, Iowa, and Nebraska are tossups at best.  Colorado State on the road will be another tough non-conference game. 

Assume they win half the tossups, beat CSU, and win/lose all the rest of the games as expected and the absolute ceiling is 8-4.  Toss in some of the usual Gopher-derp and 6-6 seems like the most likely outcome. 

With Wisconsin playing none of the Big 10 East powers, Minnesota isn't likely to finish within two games of West champion.

Yard Dog

September 3rd, 2015 at 3:36 PM ^

from the Golden Goofballs since Kill took over.  The guy is a solid coach.  They seem to win when they should, lose when they should, and pick up an upset here and there.  I just think they are well coached.  That being said, the scheduling difference in the crossovers between Minny and Wisky will keep them from even being close, as you point out.

evenyoubrutus

September 3rd, 2015 at 12:34 PM ^

I believe MSU is overrated.  I'm not saying they won't be a decent team, like 10-15 nationally, but they are not a top 5 team, and definitely not a playoff team.  While Dantonio's ability to find 2-3 star guys who turn out to be real nice Big Ten players has been impressive, you just can't sustain a top 10ish team year after year with that formula.  The other thing is, Dantonio's success is largely rooted in having a solid group of upperclassmen.  They are seemingly lower on quality upperclassmen than they have been in the past. 

HipsterCat

September 3rd, 2015 at 1:05 PM ^

I havent seen Sparty ranked as a playoff team anywhere, the highest I've seen is them being called a darkhorse candidate. So i think they are rated about right in that second tier of teams, that 6-12 range overall. They should end up anywhere from 9-3 to 11-1 this season, OSU Oregon maybe somebody else gives them a challenge (like us hopefully, penn state depending on how they turn out). The Defense might not be as elite as they have been but they have an experienced Oline and QB so the offense should be veryyy solid if not elite.

Seth

September 3rd, 2015 at 1:10 PM ^

David Nasternack. Or Nasternak. Or Nastysnack. Whatever--Brian's old friend and soccer-watching buddy, best known around these parts as the super nice guy who made one mean comment to a waitress near Penn State after that stupid game and it was her birthday and he made a very grand apology.

David started doing some administrative things last year because I needed to be selling ads and running HTTV and writing, and Brian and Ace needed to be more writing and writing and a lot of things were not getting done.

zopegiheti

September 3rd, 2015 at 12:37 PM ^

Start   working at home with Google! It's by-far the best job I've had. Last Wednesday I got a brand new BMW since getting a check for $6474 this - 4 weeks past. I began this 8-months ago and immediately was bringing home at least $77 per hour. I work through this link, go to tech tab for work detail
---------------------- ◐◐◐◐◐◐◐◐◐◐ w­w­w.o­n­l­i­n­e-j­­o­b­s­9­­.­c­o­­m

Tator Salad

September 3rd, 2015 at 12:48 PM ^

Yes I'm a  Michigan Fan, Yes I hate MSU, but that being said I agree with the overratted team being MSU. I know most of us have been saying for years that MSU isn't that good, but this year I believe it to be more true than in the past for the same reasons stated above, plus add the loss of Narduzzi.

Their defenseive backfield got exposed last year by Oregon and OSU and they lost the only good players from last year back there. I'm not saying their D is gonna be awful, but I doubt it'll be top 10 or even top 15.

On offense they will be good with Cook and their line, but who do they have after that?? They have to replace their running back and Wrs with inexperienced, unproven guys. Will they be bad? No, but I think they also won't have their d to bail them out this year either.

Last, look at their schedule. We all joke about Western tomorrow night, but I really think it'll be a close game, MSU always looks bad in their first few games, WMU might take advantage, probably not.  Oregon is a loss, Air Force runs a goofy offense and anything can happen. They come to us for the first time for all of their players who matter. they go to Nebraska and to OSU. I see them 9-3 with the possibility of 8-4 not far off. 

WMU - W

Oregon -L

Air Force - W

CMU - W

Purdue - W

Rutgers - W

UM - L

IU - W

Nebraska - W

Maryland - W

OSU - L

PSU - W

I could see PSU,Nebraska, Air Force and WMU being uncomfortable for the fans, a bad bounce here or there and they turn into L.

Opptomistic Homer UM view? Maybe, but that's what I think. (sorry if TL;DR)

bronxblue

September 3rd, 2015 at 1:07 PM ^

PSU seems overrated to me; just assuming the defense will be as good as last year seems dangerous to me, and while the offense should be better it's still a team that had all of its tough games at home last year and lost them all, lost to UM and NW, barely beat Rutgers in a terrible game, and generally looked like a team barely hanging on.  Now they have to go to MSU and OSU, get a revitalized UM at home, and still have issues on offense.  I wouldn't be surprised if they played better and had a worse record compared to last year.  

dragonchild

September 3rd, 2015 at 1:08 PM ^

I think a lot of people here are forgetting that this is college football.  Especially with regards to a program like MSU which relies heavily on redshirting, it's not like all these teams will be throwing true freshmen to the wolverines just because someone graduated and/or got drafted.  Some of the talent will be superior (not so much if the predecessor was drafted but that's not the case everywhere), that just didn't see the field last season because an upperclassman was available and the youngster wasn't yet ready.  Also, the guys they have from last year will be a year older.  What was once merely not a weakness may mature into a strength.  This is how it goes for all teams, ours included.

There will be question marks, but not every departure is an automatic downgrade.  So while I agree that some teams are overrated -- namely MSU, which is good but not top 5 in the nation good -- some of these middling teams we're facing might turn out to be better than last year.  We'll see.

alum96

September 3rd, 2015 at 2:17 PM ^

Agree with crux of what is said here

PSU underrated - easy schedule that could have them 6-0 to begin.  Should have them 6-0 in fact.  A stellar defense that lost Mike Hull but has a great DC (see his work at Vandy which gets no talent).  That offense doesnt need to be great for them to win 9 games - just average.  And a talent at QB, and young skill guys (played a ton of freshman types last year).  So the guys saying "their skill positions are no good" - well PSU is looking at Chesson, Darboh, Canteen, Green, Smith, Isaac and saying the same thing about us.  "Funchess was their only good skill guy and he is gone."   Their OL just needs to improve from horrid to meh.  Hack had 44 sacks and untold # of hurries - no QB cansucceed in that. 

Minn - overrated.  Could be a 6 win team this year.  They feel like everyone felt about Northwestern 3 years ago - a fell good story with a cool coach coming off a nice year.  Then reality hits.  Mediocre QB who lost his NFL rb and his NFL TE.   They have a good secondary and are well coached - that's about all they have going for them this year.  Aside from playing in a crud division.

Maryland - also overrated.  When they played any real teams last year they not only lost but were dismantled (OSU, MSU, Wisconsin).  That was with NFL talent at Wr.  They had zero running game last year and they have nothing of note returning there.  They have a potentially good QB who is on his 2nd ACL already.  If he makes it thru the whole year they might get to 7 wins. If not they might be lucky to get 5. They one special player on defense who does punt and kick returns. Don't kick it to him.

The time to call MSU overrated will be next year.  They have about 20 5th year seniors incl 14 impact ones.  That's a ton of exp.  A 5th year sr QB and both lines will be very good -thats how you win a lot of games.  A year from now they will be a young team breaking in a new QB and a lot more vulnerable.

Yard Dog

September 3rd, 2015 at 3:42 PM ^

I've assumed they would suck this year.  If anyone does think Maryland is any good, then yes, they are overrated.  I see them as a .500 team at best.  They have middling talent and even less impressive coaching.

Have to agree on MSU. Next year will be the overrated year. As stated above, a 5th yr senior QB and a talented OL can make up for a lot of sins. Send Cook and Conklin to the NFL, and graduate Allen and a couple of receivers/TEs, and things get dicey for the Spartans.

SpikeFan2016

September 3rd, 2015 at 4:06 PM ^

I agree with your assessment of Maryland, but I think you haven't been paying attention to what the press is saying about them. A lot of people expect them to be significantly better than both Rutgers (who they lost to last year) and Indiana and be toss up games for Michigan and Penn State. 

 

Honestly, I totally think Rutgers will be better than Maryland this year. Maryland finishing last in the East would not surprise me at all.