This Week's Obsession: How Harbaugh Will We Harbaugh? Comment Count

Seth

[For the new, this is our weekly roundtable that hasn't been weekly]

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Harbaugh, upon being asked if he's too Harbaugh to Harbaugh.

The question:

Ace: Given the current roster, the schedule, and Harbaugh, what are reasonable expectations for 2015?

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The answers:

Seth: If they do indeed hang on to everybody, particularly Mattison, I think we're looking at a season that starts rough and ends strong. The defense trades Frank Clark and Jake Ryan for another year on everyone else, plus Desmond Morgan and Jabrill Peppers back from injury.  They could be awesome. I'm a bit worried about staff gelling—Mattison is as close to a Hanlon assistant as you can get, but he's not going to take a Fred Jackson/emeritus role, and I won't be comfortable until I'm reading stuff about how he and Durkin are best buds having suds.

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Luck, yeah, but Harbaugh also was hot after RGIII as a recruit. Guy can spot 'em; can he make them is the more immediate question. [photo: getty via SF Examiner]

On offense I am biased against offensive line coaches who become OCs because DeBord/Terry Malone/Les Miles have convinced me that on the conceptual spectrum of cleverness to manliness they tend to be "execution and toughness" extremists. But as long as Harbaugh's there contributing his special brand of messing with defenses, Drevno can preach the Tao of ass-kicking to his heart's content.

Michigan's biggest question mark is whether their talented but heretofore totally lost quarterback can be fixed in an offseason. That I don't know the answer to, but Harbaugh's on any short list of quarterback gurus who might pull it off.

Harbaugh's offensive leaps are tough to track because he inherited horrible teams at Stanford and San Diego, then rebuilt with his dudes. So the one relevant data point, and indeed all hope for a speedy recovery, is San Francisco. Remember Harbaugh took over in the lockout season so he (and the rest of the league) had barely more than collegiate time to prepare their teams. He then took them to 13-3, in the process turning Alex Smith from a brooding disappointment, to a team leader and efficient guy who doesn't turn it over.

I was already starting to get bullish on the offensive line by OSU. Whether they keep the zone or just parts of it, Michigan has, and paid dearly for, six to seven guys with extensive starting experience, most of whom are due for that big So. to Jr. leap. There are enough bullets in the RB and WR chambers that somethings will hit the target.

Dave Brandon's lasting legacy will be the even-odd schedule dichotomy, but that works out for 2015 at least. With MSU and OSU at home and a manageable Big Ten road schedule there are a lot of ways for Michigan to finish strong next season. Oregon State and maybe Utah will have new coaches (the Utes at least lost their top staff) so who knows what shape any of those teams will be in. BYU should be decent; that offense scares me, especially since several freshmen displaced senior multi-year starters (and ripped Texas 41-7) this year. Expectations are centered on Gator, or whatever 4th place in the Big Ten is these days, but I'm optimistic for a rivalry win and a Citrus Bowl where we wipe some overrated SEC team.

[Jump for Dave Nasternak's long-winded debut]

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Ace: The schedule certainly sets up pretty nicely, though I've been a fan long enough to know a season-opening road game against a Pac-12 team is something to fear, bizarre Utah internal turmoil or no. Add in a transition to a new system and I'd expect at least one loss in non-conference play; BYU will also be a tough test.

Make no mistake, it will very much be a transition. For all Hoke's early MANBALL talk, Michigan was pretty much exclusively a zone run team by the end of his tenure. M wasn't exactly doing a lot pre-snap, either—that's rather difficult when you get to the line with five seconds on the play clock. Running this stuff with the efficacy of Stanford is going to take time:

The good news is the line is experienced and talented, even if that talent hasn't totally come to the forefront yet. By the end of the season, I expect the running game to be good, and for the first time in quite a while I don't feel like such a prediction will make me feel like an idiot down the road. At least one of the backs—whether it be Derrick Green, Ty Isaac, DeVeon Smith, Justice Hayes, a hopefully healthy Drake Johnson, or a true freshman—should get a feel for how to run power and the like. The bigger question will be whether M has enough tight ends who can block to pull off the full Stanford run game; Harbaugh might have to get creative in the early going.

The passing game has a number of question marks, quarterback obviously being the biggest one. Beyond who's throwing the ball, though, we'll have to see if someone emerges as a true #1 target with Devin Funchess off to the NFL early. I'm really hoping Drake Harris can get through a year healthy, because just based on his incredible junior film he's got the biggest upside of any receiver on the roster. That group should at least be solid on the whole, however.

As for the defense, I'm confident the rumored Durkin/Mattison arrangement is going to produce a quality unit, especially since just about everyone is back. Finding a true pass-rushing threat is the top priority, and I think at least one of Charlton/Ojemudia/Marshall can be that guy. There's depth and experience at pretty much every spot, and transitions between coaching staffs rarely—if ever—affect the defense as much as the offense.

With the uncertainty at quarterback, I'd say eight wins—perhaps nine with a bowl win as the team sees steady improvement—is a reasonable expectation. That may not sound great, but I think the fashion in which they acquire those wins—and how close they come in the losses—will be much more encouraging than in years past. 2016 will hopefully be the year in which things really take off.

At the very least, the GIFs posts are going to be amazing.

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David (our back-end operations guy): So, this is super long and maybe not even of 'post-able' quality, but I wanted to push myself to think more and contribute more.  So, here are my shoot-from-the-hip thoughts:

It’s very hard for my initial response to not be “HARBAUGH” and only start predicting wins, successes, and various titles. But however possible that actually may be, it does seem rather premature –after all, we still are not certain of position coaches, potential transfers, the recruiting class, or even what devastating injuries will take place (2012: Countess and then Denard; 2013:Bellomy and Ryan; 2014: Butt, kinda…and how long will Drake Johnson be out??).

Starting defensively, it does seem that depth will be on our side at most positions. On top of that, there are many contributors returning, as well –from Henry, Glasgow, and Taco to Bolden, Morgan, and Ross. The corners still are stacked and seem primed to be the best we’ve had in a decade or more, featuring a red-shirted Jabrill Peppers and presumed starter Jourdan Lewis. The worry spot for me on the defense is still at safety. Michigan rotated through at least four starting safeties, last year, and none of them seemed very consistent whether due to injury, performance, or just inexperience.

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Shane's Minnesota debut was the most discouraging thing Michigan's seen at quarterback since Sheridan's first pass. Of course that was a "this guy just doesn't have the arm" problem, while Morris's was he looked 100% unprepared. If Harbaugh can turn him into something approximating his expectations before Minnesota 2014, it'll be Harbaugh for realz. [Upchurch]

If the safeties progress to a minimum of average to above average and Michigan can find a playmaker to replace Jake Ryan (possibly Peppers or maybe a Senior Leap from Joe Bolden?), I believe the defense has sky-high potential. If they can hit that mark, though…well, we’ll find out not soon enough.

Offensively speaking, Michigan actually does return a lot of depth (and talent, as well). Unfortunately, the spot where they do not return anything but question marks is at the most important position: quarterback. While plenty of people ripped on Gardner over the last couple of years, he did bring the majority of experience, athleticism, and play-making ability to the huddle –not to mention plenty of GAF. With all of that graduated (and finally some time to personally heal), Michigan is left with 2 starts from a rocket-armed rising Junior, a freshly red-shirted 2nd year Borges recruit, a 5th year backup with a career line of 4/23 for 46 yards and 4 INTs…and then a largely-hyped, yet, True Freshman. That is…not a lot. This, specifically, will be one of HARBAUGH’s most daunting challenges to date.

The rest of the offense has considerably less to worry about. Hoke’s vaunted O-Line recruiting is finally starting to take shape, even with some depth that hasn’t been completely publicly explored. All five starters return after a very solid end to the year with a look towards a bigger leap going into 2015. There are also some potential hidden gems that have only seen some garbage time—Kugler, Dawson, etc.

Despite Funchess now opting for Sunday Football and Drake Johnson potentially still on the mend, Michigan does have decent options at both sets of skill positions. Darboh, Chesson, and Canteen head the WR postion with red-shirted Drake Harris, Moe Ways, and possible WR/TE hybrid Ian Bunting providing more size and deep-threat options. Michigan should also have quite a stable of RB choices, even without Johnson. 5th year senior Justice Hayes should lead Juniors Green and Smith, while RS Soph USC transfer Ty Isaac joins the fold. The odds of 1+ of this group having a breakout season should be relatively high. Throw in TE Jake Butt (possibly Khalid Hill), FBs Joe Kerridge and Sione Houma and all-around Nuclear Weapon Dennis Norfleet, Michigan should have solid options at most non-QB positions.

The 2015 schedule also is somewhat favorable to Michigan. None of the five road games screams guaranteed loss. While Opening Night in Salt Lake City is probably not an ideal place to start the HARBAUGH Era, the Utes are an organizational mess, right now, and it is unclear who will even actually be on the coaching staff…or team for that matter. Perhaps the toughest road game will be in Minneapolis (?!?!?!). A trip to State College beckons, as well…many unfortunate events unfolded the last time Michigan ventured there. However, Michigan will host MSU and OSU for the first time since…I honestly don’t even know. BYU comes to town, too. Overall, I don’t think there is a “can’t win” game on the schedule, but with who-knows at QB, suspect safety play, and still many off-season unknowns and transitions ahead, I can’t see Michigan escaping without 3-4 losses. Perhaps, the ceiling is a little higher than that, but it would still be a big ask, even for HARBAUGH.

One thing I am very certain of, for the first time in a loooooooong time, I am confident that there will be very few things that this Michigan team won’t be well-prepared and well-coached to Harbaugh…er, handle.

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Brian:

FEBRUARY 2015: Braxton Miller transfers to Michigan.

MARCH: Cardale Jones and JT Barrett also transfer to Michigan.

APRIL: Urban Meyer retires citing strain, goes on to outstanding test cricket career.

MAY: Seventeen five stars commit to Michigan on one weekend. Also a kicker.

JUNE: Mark Dantonio is arrested after murdering a fifth journalist who asks him about Harbaugh.

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Dantonio avoided a life sentence when federal prosecutors were not prepared for his innovative "Quarters" defense. He was, however, given two months for contempt of court for not complying with the judge's orders to stop scowling at the witnesses. [photo: Fuller, from production of an upcoming episode of the History Channel's Prison Gangs]

JULY: Art Fair is hot again.

AUGUST: Dantonio released, immediately returns to practice.

SEPTEMBER: Michigan defeats its non-conference opponents by a cumulative score of 450-2. BYU and Oregon State disband their football teams.

OCTOBER: Michigan wins all games by forfeit.

NOVEMBER: With Ohio State the last thing standing between Michigan and total hegemony, all of the teams who forfeited band together behind the Buckeyes. Citing obscure Big Ten bylaws, Ohio State is allowed to play 22 people at a time as long as half of them are wearing silly hats. Michigan wins, 1000-0.

DECEMBER: A nation trembles in fear as Michigan begins bowl practices that can be heard from sea to shining sea. Most Michigan players have reached mythical proportions. Kicker Andrew David, the smallest remaining Wolverine, is eleven feet tall and five hundred pounds.

JANUARY 2016: A selection of all-star teams descends on the Michigan camp before the allotted start of the game, bearing a series of improvised explosive devices and several AK47s. They are utterly routed and never heard from again. In the distant future a sheet of glass containing the souls of several thousand football players is found in deep space. When accidentally released, they ask to go back in the glass.

FEBRUARY 2016: Michigan wins the Superbowl by staring down the entire NFL until they explode into flame and melt.

MARCH 2016: NFL reporters note the Raiders are still in play.

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Mathlete: I agree with all of this from Brian, but if Harbaugh can go back in time, let's go back to at least 2008.

happy_new_years_2015__back_to_the_future_2_style_by_nightshadekittentana-d8bisyv

Comments

PurpleStuff

January 1st, 2015 at 1:14 PM ^

The guys we have coming back have combined to throw for 0 TD and 9 INT so far in their UM careers.  One has completed less than 50% of his passes and the other less than 20%.  Neither has won a game as a starter.

Kevin Hogan has thrown 48 TD compared to 21 INT.  He won a Pac-12 title last year and went to the Rose Bowl and he just won a bowl game this year.

If you can get him with just a one year commitment this is the definition of a no brainer.

Seth

January 1st, 2015 at 1:19 PM ^

I've seen that rumor but I'm very much waiting for some level of realness before taking it seriously. Reason being, it's notoriously difficult to get transfers past admissions at Michigan, and nobody has any idea right now whether our graduate school admissions process would consider a guy likely to come here for just one year.

The whole admissions-athletics relationship hasn't had to face that before, and the information we have on that operation is thus limited. The good news is so far the only transfers Michigan ever gets are really good students from Stanfords and the like. Here's the list:

  • Russell Shaw from El Camino, which is a preparatory feeder for USC and Notre Dame
  • Spencer Brinton from SDSU after a two-year Mormon mission
  • Grant Mason from Stanford
  • Austin Panter from Butler CC, which is an accredited pre-med where Panter was studying to be a chiropractor
  • Steven Threet from Georgia Tech

If he wasn't from Stanford I wouldn't even be countenancing it. But who knows if Michigan's academics would even consider his athletic value in his admissions. And if Michigan can't guarantee admission, would he just move on to the large list of schools who do?

UMaD

January 1st, 2015 at 1:17 PM ^

  • Mattison has worked with A LOT of different people and is going to fall in with the Carr, Moeller, Hackett old-guard in being Harbaugh-friendly.  There's no reason to worry about him getting along with the new staff, at least not anymore than anyone else.
  • Seth's Alex Smith to Shane Morris comparison is good reason to hope.
  • Oregon State is facing a lot of turnover.  Their fans are stoked about Anderson but don't have high expectations for 2015.
  • Utah seems to be in enormous turmoil, but that's a tough place to open regardless.
  • We don't need "a true #1" WR. Many of the best offenses in the country don't have one. Between Darboh, Canteen, Chesson, Norfleet, and Harris...we'll be fine. Though... 
  • Drake Harris's early career has a lot in common with Shane Morris'
  • He may not be Braxton Miller, but if Hogan comes that puts Michigan square into the Big10 championship conversation IMO.
  • Will have to see how the recruiting class and coaching staff fill out before making too many predictions.  For now, Brian's sound like a good placeholder.

PurpleStuff

January 1st, 2015 at 1:42 PM ^

I think people are overstating how big of a transformation took place there.  In 2009 he completed just over 60% of his passes, threw 18 TD and 12 INT.  In 2010 he just under 60% of his passes and threw 14 TD and 10 INT.  Both years he was dealing with injuries and getting yanked in and out of the lineup by a shitshow coaching staff.

In 2011 he completed 61.3% of his passes, threw 17 TD and 5 INT.  He got better and the team improved dramatically, but he didn't come as far as people seem to think (meaning he wasn't a total disaster before Harbaugh arrived, more a young QB playing on a shitty team).  He was making positive plays before Harbaugh arrived, he just cut back slightly on the mistakes and his career took off.

I don't know if expecting the same kind of transformation is fair when we're talking about a guy who has literally done nothing on the field so far.  Morris may be a late bloomer, but he also may just have been overrated coming out of high school, through no fault of his own. 

I also think you are underestimating the weakness at WR.  Darboh has looked like a decent possession receiver at best (nice production this year but only a long of 34 yards).  None of the other guys you mentioned have done anything of note on the field, and the young guys did not make an immediate impact nor are they can't miss type prospects.  Losing Gallon last year and Funchess this year leaves a big production void, especially if we no longer have a mobile QB to pad the rushing stats a'la OSU or Oregon.  We don't need one guy to carry the load, but we need playmakers.  Contrast what we have with what USC threw on the field in the Holiday Bowl (true freshman Adoree Jackson with a kickoff return TD and a 70+ yard catch and run, JuJu Smith with 700+ yards as a true freshman, Agholor with 1,300+ yards, and 5-star guys on the bench).  And they still lost 4 games this year.

teldar

January 1st, 2015 at 2:07 PM ^

I think misuse contributed to the lack of yards by a lot of the receivers. The miserable coaching thoughout the team and the terrible offensive management over the last few years may have had something to do with lack of production. I always got the feeling that there was a lot of talent and ability going to waste, first with a complete lack of an OL and then a complete lack of a reasonably efficient game plan. 

Disclaimer: I could be wrong.

 

teldar

January 1st, 2015 at 2:36 PM ^

The 2012 Wolverines and the 2011 Wolverines. Maybe the 2010 Wolverines as well.

If you aren't interested in continuity, you could maybe have added the 2009 Wolverines, But I don't blame that staff as much for being a tire fire, at least not on both sides of the ball.

UMaD

January 1st, 2015 at 2:10 PM ^

You are right that it wasn't completely unexpected for Smith to improve but he did make a significant leap that can't JUST be chalked up to reducing mistakes.

At age 25 and 26, Smith had QBRs of 38.6 in both 2009 and 2010.  Under Harbaugh, at age 27 and 28 his QBRs went up to 47 and 69.  We're not talking about a very young player here.

So, you are right that Harbaugh didn't turn Smith into an all-pro.  For some perspective, a 38 QBR would be 5th worst in the NFL this season and a 47 QBR wouldn't be that much better (2 or 3 spots).  A 69 QBR would be 8th in the league though.

To put it another way, the 49ers QB (ranked by QBR) between 2010-2012 went from 25 to 20 to 7th.  In 2012 Smith and Kaepernick split QB duties but each had a similar QBR between 69 and 72.

Harbaugh made Smith not only a winner, but a far more effective QB.

 

PurpleStuff

January 1st, 2015 at 2:46 PM ^

Chris Owusu ran a 4.36 at the combine and was a stud at Stanford.  Had injuries so he didn't get drafted and his numbers weren't what they could have been, but he's still on an active roster in the NFL.  In 2009 he ran back three kickoffs for TD (how long do you have to go back in Michigan history to get 3 return TD?).

Doug Baldwin had over 800 yards on the 2010 team that won the Orange Bowl.  He plays for the Seahawks and has nearly 3,000 career yards in the NFL.

Ryan Whalen also got drafted and put up over 900 yards on the 2009 Stanford team.

Canteen maybe becomes as good as those guys, but that is it with respect to our current roster, IMO, and that is totally based on hope rather than production.

Stanford also had Zac Ertz and Coby Fleener drafted highly as TE as additional weapons in the passing game.  Both of those guys put up over 700 yards this year in the NFL.  Levin Toilolo put up over 200 this year with the Falcons, another TE draft pick recruited by Harbaugh.

The difference is pretty stark.  I'm excited about what he'll build, but acting like this current Michigan squad looks like what he left behind at Stanford is very wishful thinking, IMO.

 

UMaD

January 1st, 2015 at 4:58 PM ^

Instead of NFL production (which our guys by definition can't have), lets compare apples to apples. How do the recruiting profiles stack up to our guys?

Baldwin was a 2-star JH grabbed one month into getting the Stanfard job. Whalen was...a walk-on.  Owusu was a 4 star.

Let's flip the script a bit and consider what JH did with 2-stars and walk-ons -- turned kids like this into NFL players -- this speaks volumes. Maybe Bo Dever should start talking to agents...

Canteen is legit and the fact that he immediately leap-frogged a bunch of older players despite Hoke's preference for big WR is telling.  Chesson and Darboh aren't superstars but they can absolutely be Baldwin/Whalen caliber players.  Good blockers, good hands, reliable. Harris is track kid with a more impressive profile than Owusu.

I have been as vocal and critical as anyone of Hoke's recruiting approach at WR (who needs speed, I want to win a pickup basketball game) but this Michigan team is going to live or die with the OL play and the run game.  Yeah, we're going to be better with Desmond Howard at WR than Jon Kolesar or Greg McMurtry, but it doesn't make or break the offense.

 

 

Glennsta

January 1st, 2015 at 1:42 PM ^

... but I am willing to be that the Utes are not exactly thrilled about opening THEIR season against 1) a team with Michigan's talent 2) with a new, improved coaching staff and 3) no game film with which to prepare.

lastofthedogmen

January 1st, 2015 at 1:19 PM ^

I apologize if it's already in here and I've skipped over it, but it seems to me that the biggest immediate improvement, and the one that would immediately get us at least 3 wins, is winning the turnover and penalties areas.  These have always, prior to 2008, been areas that UM has been able to be better than the other team, and I see our failures of the past several years being corrected immediately under a Harbaugh-led team.  There will be consequences to those who commit turnovers and stupid penalites.

teldar

January 1st, 2015 at 2:10 PM ^

Is any of this due to the stone age punt formations and inability to have 11 men on the field? Fleet definitely had some elusiveness and I don't think he was being helped a whole lot by the other 10 guys on the field (or 9 guys). I think if there had been SOME coaching that went on during special teams, maybe Fleet would have been a little better.

 

pearlw

January 1st, 2015 at 3:31 PM ^

Remember that Norfleet was not the starting punt returner when season started - Peppers was. So there is a good chance that Peppers will be back there instead next year.



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raleighwood

January 1st, 2015 at 1:56 PM ^

I'm very optimistic (maybe overly) regarding the O-Line next year.  They seemed to get better this year and the rushing game was a bright spot at times.  The top 6 linemen from 2014 return and that's before we're start looking at the 2013 class......all 4* or better via Scout (Samuelson, Bosch, Dawson, LTT, Fox and Kugler).  Lots of depth.  Lots of competition.

Michigan also has three Top 11 RB's from 2013 (Green, Smith and Isaac) who provide a combination of youth and experience (all have played extensively....all have at least two years of eligibility remaining).

The defensive returns just about everybody.  Yes, Clark and JMFR were the two best defensive players but there's enought depth to fill those voids.

I've already bet a buddy that Michigan will finish with a better B1G record than MSU in 2015.  That's partly because I believe in Harbaugh and partly because MSU magic can't last forever.  

I think that Michigan might stumble in a couple of early games but goes 6-2 (at worst) in the B1G with at least one win over MSU or OSU.  8-4 is the floor.  11-1 is the ceiling.

Let Harbaugh begin!

uminks

January 1st, 2015 at 2:02 PM ^

I really don't care if Harbaugh wins only 6 games, all I know is we will be the best 6 win team out there. Harbaugh will go with who ever is the best QB during summer practice. I see a big leap coming in our OL and RBs! The defense will improve under JH. Overall, I can see anywhere from 7 to 11 wins. It would not surprise me if JH is able to win all his games! But realistically an 8 or 9 win season would be great for  his first season. By year 3 Harbaugh will win the B1G and Michigan will be in the playoffs and back to excellence! Yeah!

Reader71

January 1st, 2015 at 2:08 PM ^

"[T]ransitions between coaching staffs rarely—if ever—affect the defense as much as the offense." Our recent past suggest otherwise. The 2008 defense was much worse than the 2007 unit, despite a lot of returning experience. And the 2011 defense was aeons better than the 2010 outfit, while the offense was affected to a much lower degree as far as production. I know offense is a lot more fun to discuss, and the differences are more easy to see, but defensive transitions can, and often do, have just as large of an effect as offensive ones. I dont think this one will, but its not like we don't have precedent here.

WallyWallace

January 1st, 2015 at 2:28 PM ^

JH will get it right but the said potential of tension between Mattison and Durkin is troubling. Mattison > GERG but we gave up 400 yards to Gary Nova and long drives that lost games (PSU with O'Brien) and almost lost games (NU) to offensively inept teams. Everett Golson was a Heisman candidate after playing us.

I hope Mattison is a position coach/recruiter and no more. 

 

pearlw

January 1st, 2015 at 3:33 PM ^

Why would there be any tension? Mattison and Durkin are extremely close as durkin has worked for him before amd Mattison recommended him to Harbaugh at Stanford. If Mattison stays, there is no doubt that this issue was at keast discussed and that Durkin must have given it the OK given their past relationship.



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