We are roundtabling our Big Ten basketball thoughts instead of doing a draftageddon thing.

Last time:

Seth: So, are we in Annually Overhyped About Iowa stage now?

Ace: [looks at Brian]

Alex: Penn State > Iowa, change my mind.

Iowa

[noises] [Patrick Barron]

Ace: To me, this is a downgrade from last year, when you had Bohannon/Cook/Moss/Baer. In their place they’ve got an extra McCaffrey, a not-that-productive Valpo transfer, and Jack Nunge. I have PSU eighth and Iowa ninth, so I’m not inclined to do that. One of those teams cares about defense. That’s the other thing about Iowa: they were 111th in adjusted defense last year and got less athletic.

Brian: Year two Weiskamp can overcome some of those things, and ... uh. Yeah losing Bohannon is probably doom.

Seth:

Fran McCaffery told reporters that he thinks Jordan Bohannon (hip) will play in Iowa's exhibition game on Monday. Significant Big Ten news.

— Jon Rothstein (@JonRothstein) October 30, 2019

Brian: BACK ON THE BANDWAGON

Ace: Prediction: This is gonna go like Spike's first senior year. Bohannon’s recent quotes have basically been “I’m gonna give it a shot, i guess.”

Brian: /kicks rocks

Ace: Maybe Luke Garza is no longer the worst defensive center this side of Joey Brunk? I have my doubts but that would help.

[After THE JUMP: All-Big Ten defensive team, etc.]

-------------------------------------------------

Brian: So the bottom half of the league... uh. Any takers?

Seth: Nebrasketba—hey where'd everybody go? It might be better to just talk about the few interesting players down here.

Brian: I'd like to pause for a second to note that nobody expects anything out of Indiana except the people who will probably be braying for blood as the Hoosiers lose at home to Northwestern at some point.

-------------------------------------------------

Indiana

Rob Phinisee is here to make sure Archie isn't the first IUBB coach to go tourneyless since IUFB went undefeated. [JD Scott]

Seth: Has Indiana ever had a coach who never made the tournament?

Ace: Not since Harry C. Good, around World War II.

Seth: So back when eight teams made the playoffs.

Ace: Wait, sorry, Jerry Oliver had a very short, disastrous tenure from 1969-71.

Seth: That was one season and one game. And I think he was expressly interim.

Ace: Indeed.

Oliver joined Indiana’s coaching staff in 1968 as an assistant to Lou Watson. Oliver served as acting head coach of the Hoosiers for the final 20 games of the 1969–70 season while Watson was recovering from surgery. Oliver served as acting head coach again the following season when Watson resigned before the final game of the season.

This is like the podcast but in written form.

Brian: You just look at that roster and... yikes. Langford gone, Juwan Morgan gone, they bring in the #30 recruit and #151. Miller isn't even recruiting well.

Ace: Yeah, that’s an unfair amount of pressure on Trayce Jackson-Davis to fill a center spot that they tried to plug with Morgan last year.

Brian: They either get That One Hilarious Justin Smith Against MSU all year or Jerome Hunter comes up big after missing last season, or... Rob Phinisee?

Ace: Morgan was very good, and also so not a center that Brandon Johns scored eight points in that game. If it’s not Hunter, I’m not sure they have a shot at the tournament.

Seth: Did they find a point guard or is Devonte Green going to have to pretend again?

Ace: Him or Phinisee. They did not add one. They did add Joey Brunk!

Brian: Oh man.

Ace: No games removed!

That is Joey Brunk’s performance at Butler, which some may note is in a worse conference than Indiana.

Seth: Maybe putting Joey Brunk on the court and then removing him magically makes one better at defense?

Brian: The truly incredible part is that the other two guys getting minutes at C were a 6'10" guy with a 1.4% block rate and a freshman.

Ace: Maybe we can give him the benefit of the doubt and assume he was throwing games and Archie Miller knows it?  I don’t want to besmirch the kid but, uh, 11-point dropoff in two-point defense.

Brian: And that guy's probably playing 15-20 MPG for Indiana. Next. Is there anyone else down here worth the time it takes to talk about them?

Ace: Uh.

Brian: Penn State?

-------------------------------------------------

Penn State

Lamar Stevens excels at making bad shots. [Marc-Grégor Campredon]

Seth:

Alex: Penn State > Iowa, change my mind.

Ace: They’re sort of the same? Which means they’re getting some NCAA tournament projections that I’m extremely skeptical about.

Brian: This was built on that late run they had where they went 7-3 down the stretch with wins over Michigan and Maryland and narrowly missed road upsets of OSU and Wisconsin. Pat Chambers saves his job, everyone but Reaves comes back, they look interesting, and then Rasir Bolton transfers outta nowhere.

Ace: Yeah, losing Bolton probably hurts more than Reaves—52nd percentile as a defender last season on Synergy, FWIW—and last year’s PSU team felt like it was somewhere in the middle of the 0-10 start and 7-3 finish in overall quality.

Brian: Yikes:

“At this point, I want to give Penn State a chance to respond. I can tell you it’s a non-basketball related issue. “Right now, we’re just trying to get through the process clean and move on to the next destination.”

Seth: Myles Dread was sticking in my mind as good for some reason but his Kenpom Page is Just a Shooter™. I remember the shooting.

Ace: I also hate to note this as a negative given the circumstances, which is mental health problems, but they really need center Mike Watkins and the guy’s minutes have gone down each season he’s played. Otherwise it’s John Harrar and a very out-of-position Lamar Stevens.

Brian: Yeah if they get sophomore Watkins, who shot 68% from the floor and was one of the league's better defensive Cs they've got a shot. Otherwise, NIT at best.

Ace: He’s really talented when he’s healthy. Here’s hoping that’s not what holds them back. I mostly don’t trust Pat Chambers to get the most out of his team. PSU’s halfcourt offense last year: ninth percentile.

Seth: They also relied on Lamar Stevens for everything on offense. It's not like he can soak up any more usage.

Ace: Yeah. He could become a slightly better outside shooter, I guess, but I doubt he breaks out there. He’s a career 28% three-point shooter and that’s been moving the wrong way as he takes on more shots. But he’s a good free-throw shooter so maybe that’s in there somewhere.

Brian: Anyone else worth mentioning?

Seth: Myreon Jones never saw a shot not worth taking. He is my hope of replacing Isaiah Washington (who transferred) as Most Interesting Big Ten Player.

Ace: I mean, Northwestern could be a truly special kind of terrible, which might fit in with your new way of watching football.

-------------------------------------------------

Northwestern

One thing the Wildcats have going for them: Killer Mopp is one the league's better spoonerisms. [Bryan Fuller]

Seth: Northwestern punts might even fit on a basketball court.

Ace: That might be their best hope of putting the ball in the hoop. They finished 204th(!!!) in adjusted offensive efficiency last year, or 52 spots below Rutgers.

Brian: Terrible basketball has no appeal to me.

-------------------------------------------------

Minnesota?

We too are impressed with Oturu. [Campredon]

Brian: I like Oturu and Kalscheur.

Ace: I like Kalscheur a lot and think he’s getting slept on in all-conference discussions. That said, losing Amir Coffey and Jordan Murphy from a borderline team is going to hurt, and Richard Pitino hasn’t been killing it as a strategist or recruiter.

Brian: Yeah. Moving on.

-------------------------------------------------

Awards

#1 and #2 in the conference are both ones: #5 and #3. [Campredon]

Ace: Is it time to get prematurely pissed off at writers and coaches who don’t value defense in postseason awards?

Seth: Including the defensive awards!

Ace: Sometimes. I actually forgot they gave Reaves DPOY over PICK ANY OF THREE MICHIGAN PLAYERS. Mad again.

Seth: Yuh huh.

Brian: Okay.

All Defensive Team

Reuvers is no longer in the background, or guarding 4s. Livers can no longer be ignored. [Campredon]

Ace: Well point guard and center is easy.

Brian: Tillman and Reuvers need not apply at C?

Seth: The Big Ten shoehorns guys into these so you can take Tillman and Teske.

Ace: Okay, I may have jumped the gun a bit, but I’d take Teske in a heartbeat over Reuvers, and Tillman isn’t quite dominant. My locks are Teske, Zavier Simpson, and Purdue’s Nojel Eastern.

Brian: No shoehorning.

Matt EM: If Jalen Smith is considered a C with Fernando out of the picture, he's definitely worth mention

Ace: Eastern is a wing. I wanted to shoehorn Smith in at PF but I guess we aren’t doing that.

Brian: Also there is Haarms. Lots of contenders.

Ace: MSU’s Aaron Henry graded out really, really well last year and is only going to get better. And he’s a wing, so that helps a lot here.

Brian: Sticks at the 5:

Matt EM: Henry moves well enough laterally in conjunction with strength and motor to make me a believer

Ace: Yeah, he’s gonna be good.

Brian: Promising, especially since he'll be 15 pounds heavier this year.

Ace: I’m ignoring Brian’s directive and/or pretending Maryland is going to stick with two bigs: PG Zavier Simpson, W Nojel Eastern, W Aaron Henry, PF Jalen Smith, C Jon Teske.

Brian: Shoehorn! That's a shoehorn!

Ace: I’m trying to avoid homering myself into three Wolverines here. Isaiah Livers does deserve consideration, though.

Brian: I was going to mention Livers. M saw no drop off when he was at the 3 instead of Matthews.

Seth: The only guys I sheriff badged last year whom we haven't discussed are Luther Muhammad and Brad Davidson. I could see the Big Ten giving it to the latter out of spite for everybody.

Matt EM: Livers effectiveness may hinge on whether he's defending 3/4 off-ball wings or 2/3 on-ball guards

Ace: For what it’s worth, Davison graded out as one of Wisconsin’s worst defenders. 40th percentile on Synergy. He’s all try-hard.

Matt EM: Definitely buying Luther defensive stock, he's a ball hawk

Brian: Darryl Morsell for Maryland is another wing candidate. Sure wasn't out there for his offense.

Alex: I’d go X, Eastern, Muhammad, Tillman, Teske. I think the Other X will play a fair amount of 4 especially if Hauser doesn’t get his waiver granted.

Seth: Yeah, if we were forced to stick with a SG instead of making a pile of wings I've got Muhammad on the list.

Luther Muhammad has Charles Matthews game. [Campredon]

Ace: I could see Aleem Ford being good for Wisconsin in a bigger role but that’s taking a fair amount of projection.

Alex: Good call on Morsell—can guard 1-3 and some less traditional 4s and they definitely view him as their stopper.

Seth: I've got Alex's list.

Matt EM: Aaron Wiggins from Maryland has the physical profile to be a legit perimeter defender but don't know if I saw enough from him on that end last season to project an all-conference type impact

Brian: I've got X, Eastern, Morsell, Livers, Tillman. No shoehorn.

Ace: If we’re counting Tillman at the four I’m keeping my shoehorn.

Brian: We're not! Everyone is ignoring the shoehorn directive! Except me!

Ace: Otherwise: X, Eastern, Henry, Livers, Teske. Michigan had the #2 defense in the country last year, you’re a homer.

Brian: And there was a giant gap back to #3. 2 -> 3 gap was as big as 3 -> 11.

Ace: I was going between X and Teske as my pick for DPOY in the last preview post.

Seth: Simpson, Muhammad, Eastern, Livers, Teske. Tillman is special; Teske is special and doesn't commit fouls and is a sasquatch.

All-Defensive Team
	Point Guard	Shooting Guard	Small Forward	Power Forward	Center
Brian	Zavier Simpson (UM)	Nojel Eastern (PU)	Darryl Morsell (MD)	Isaiah Livers (UM)	Xavier Tillman (MSU)
Ace	Zavier Simpson (UM)	Nojel Eastern (PU)	Aaron Henry (MSU)	Isaiah Livers (UM)	Jon Teske (UM)
Seth	Zavier Simpson (UM)	Nojel Eastern (PU)	Luther Muhammad (OSU)	Isaiah Livers (UM)	Jon Teske (UM)
Alex	Zavier Simpson (UM)	Nojel Eastern (PU)	Luther Muhammad (OSU)	Isaiah Livers (UM)	Jon Teske (UM)

Top three breakout players.

Eric Ayala is one of several expected one-and-dones who came back for a sophomore leap, but does that ever happen in College Park? [Paul Sherman]

Seth: Has Ayo broken out already?

Brian: If you want to project a 10+ ORTG bump he's valid. But he was already a 25% usage starter.

Ace: Kalscheur is the first player that came to mind for me. Had a tiny usage last year but clearly got more comfortable as the season went on and started hitting some impressive shots off the bounce in the postseason.

Matt EM: Eric Ayala seems likely to double production this season.

Brian: Ayala's problem is that Cowan is still around.

Ace: Maryland has some candidates. There’s still offense available with Fernando gone. I like Aaron Wiggins a lot too.

Seth: I was just thinking Wiggins but his problem is Ayala is still around.

Brian: The guy on a historically pretty good offense with the most shots to eat is Joe Weiskamp. Cook, Moss, Baer gone, Bohannon maybe in the Spike Hip Injury zone.

Ace: Oh, yeah, if we’re including Wieskamp as guys who haven’t broken out yet, he should be in there.

Brian: 122 ORTG last year; gonna have to up his usage a ton but might be able to approach that.

Ace: I think I’ve just assumed he already had his breakout year.

Brian: 18% usage last year, can still definitely break out.

Ace: I tipped this pick in the all-defense section but I expect Aaron Henry to be a really good two-way player for State.

Brian: A breakout can be 1) guy getting a lot more minutes, 2) a guy getting a lot more efficient, or 3) a guy upping his usage dramatically and still being good.

Ace: Livers has a chance to fit 1 and 3. He looked very comfortable with the fire at will directive.

Brian: Maybe; I kind of feel like Livers has a usage cap because he's not going to get to the bucket much. I'd pick either of Purdue's centers if there was only one of them.

Ace: There’s still going to be a significant volume increase because of the change in Michigan’s tempo.

Seth: Nate Reuvers is replacing a galaxy and is coming up from 56% minutes and 20% usage. That's my third if Wieskamp is eligible, and yeah I see more offense for Dosunmu to explore as well as all-around basketballness.

Matt EM: Trevion Williams also a possibility.

Brian: Haarms went from benched midseason to playing 30 MPG and is still in the rapid improvement phase. Also he is a windmill.

Ace: My picks: Wieskamp, Kalscheur, Reuvers.

Brian: If Purdue can feed him shots, I mean: 68% from the floor, 70% FTs, 12 block rate, 17 TO rate that dropped to 12 in Big Ten play.

Brian: Haarms, Wieskamp, Ayala.

Top Three Breakout Players
Brian	Joe Wieskamp (IA)	Eric Ayala (MD)	Matt Haarms (PU)
Ace	Joe Wieskamp (IA)	Gabe Kalscheur (MN)	Nate Reuvers (UW)
Seth	Joe Wieskamp (IA)	Ayo Dosunmu (UI)	Nate Reuvers (UW)

All Big Ten First Team

Well does defense matter? [Campredon]

Brian: I assume Winston is unanimous.

Ace: Indeed.

Seth: Stupid NBA.

Ace: I already posted my picks, though Brian’s gonna accuse me of shoehorning:

• G Cassius Winston, MSU
• G Zavier Simpson, U-M
• F Lamar Stevens, PSU
• F Xavier Tillman, MSU
• C Jon Teske, U-M

Seth: Your all-conference team can't be unplayable.

Matt EM: Wesson at C.

Brian: Really! I'm a Wesson skeptic, as we all know.

Seth: And it's not like there aren't a lot of good centers to choose from.

Brian: Ace's team is sort of shoehorning. You could easily play Winston and X together but the frontcourt is rough.

Matt EM: The three-ball in conjunction with Teske's lack of development in that area seal the deal for me.

Ace: Wesson is easily the best offensive center in the conference, though. I’m picking the best players at positions, not the most coherent team, nobody else picks all-conference teams this way. You’re not leaving Zavier Simpson out because Lamar Stevens produced too much or vice versa.

Brian: It should really be PG, C, whatever.

Matt EM: Also think Livers may be in the conversation with the emphasis on pace, may see him get to 14-15 ppg.

Ace: Oh yeah, pretty easily.

Brian: I am going Winston, Simpson, Donsunmu, Wieskamp, Haarms.

Seth: Given the need for shooting on this team and his familiarity with this level of basketball for a freshman, it wouldn't be crazy for Franz to make all-conference.

Brian: I can't get behind Lamar Stevens, I know he's in a bad situation but he shot 46/22 last year and attempted 91 threes.

Ace: He’s asked to do everything. He does a lot of it quite well. It’s insanely hard to play for long stretches while carrying that kind of load. At that point you throw out the efficiency and are just impressed he keeps them in games.

Brian: If he was at Happ/Edwards usage levels maybe but 30% isn't a level at which it seems too impressive that you have a 99 ORTG.

Ace: Dude.

They have nothing else.

Seth: Yeah, all Big Ten teams are for dudes who are doing work for their teams not who comes away with the fanciest stats.

Ace: Also, I remember having this same argument about Carsen Edwards.

Regarding efficiency and context, obviously different players.

Brian: Edwards is on another planet in that regard.

Ace: So is Purdue’s supporting cast.

Brian: They were similar inside the line; Edwards took 380 threes last year and hit 36% of them; different planet. There have been plenty of bad-shot makers who played for similar PSU teams and did as well or better.

But we'll just go in circles on this again.

Ace: And I’ll end by pointing out you were the one arguing against Edwards’s inclusion on last year’s all-conference team. Which was insane.

Seth: Winston, Simpson, Dosunmu, Stevens, Tillman because I'm going by MVPism.

All Big Ten Team
	Point Guard	Shooting Guard	Small Forward	Power Forward	Center
Brian	Cassius Winston (MSU)	Zavier Simpson (UM)	Ayo Dosunmu (UI)	Joe Wieskamp (IA)	Matt Haarms (PU)
Ace	Cassius Winston (MSU)	Zavier Simpson (UM)	Lamar Stevens (PSU)	Xavier Tillman (MSU)	Jon Teske (UM)
Seth	Cassius Winston (MSU)	Zavier Simpson (UM)	Ayo Dosunmu (UI)	Lamar Stevens (PSU)	Xavier Tillman (MSU)
Matt EM	Cassius Winston (MSU)	Ayo Dosunmu (UI)	?	Isaiah Livers (UM)	Kaleb Wesson (OSU)

Brian: All right, there you have it. Open wide for some basketball.