11/23/2019 – Michigan 39, Indiana 14 – 9-2, 6-2 Big Ten

Indiana waltzing down the field for an opening-drive touchdown was an ominous sign that the trademark Indiana Stupid Game was about to transpire. That feeling was reinforced when Indiana scored again in short order. They kept throwing wide receiver screens to their tight end. Some goofy pass interference calls and Michigan's punter kicking a 24-yarder that was somehow not a shank buttressed the structure further.

By the time Giles Jackson, hearing no whistle after having literally every portion of his body hit the ground, got up to "score" the world's most emphatically overturned touchdown it was a lock. Michigan would be embroiled in another one of those games, the ones which Indiana should win 37% of the time and wins 0% of the time. A traditionally stupid Michigan-Indiana game. Michigan would find itself embroiled in a stupefying conflict until their center went the wrong way in overtime and Michigan scored anyway or Jeremy Gallon racked up receiving yard #369, and then they'd win. I spent much of the first quarter thinking about the one where Indiana went on 15-play touchdown drives, whereupon Denard Robinson would score in two plays and the cycle would repeat. I braced for the kind of win that makes you want to shower afterwards.

This didn't happen. What happened is Indiana stopped doing anything and Michigan scored over and over again. After Indiana's second touchdown the Hoosiers gained 49 yards on their next six drives; by the time they did anything of note Michigan had put up 32 unanswered.

This has been a rarity over the past decade. Since 2009 the only other Michigan-Indiana game that hasn't been in serious doubt in the fourth quarter was the 2014 edition. That was 34-10 because the Hoosiers had to start Zander Diamont (career YPA: 4.6) at QB. Every other IU game over the last decade has been somewhere between pretty uncomfortable and having your nose hairs plucked out one by one by an old man regaling you with tales of his various lesions.

This was the best of any of these Indiana teams, the one Michigan stuffed in a steamer trunk and mailed to Peru.

-------------------------------------------------------

And so here we are. A lot of people are coming out of the woodwork now to say they always believed. This is a lie unless the person in question has also been scammed out of money by a robocall. If you have lost money because a recorded message says They Have Been Trying To Reach You, I believe you. I believe you if you are Raj:

you in October: will Shea Patterson ever complete a pass

me in October: check out this Monte Carlo simulation I programmed showing Michigan having a 0.05% to make the playoff pic.twitter.com/mqdWfIFzXD

— playoff raj (@internetraj) November 25, 2019

Otherwise, no.

Six games ago Michigan was coming off:

• a six-game stretch dating back to last year's Indiana game where they failed to cover the spread by at least 17 points, including horrible blowouts against OSU, Florida, and Wisconsin and a three-point OT win over Army
• Rutger
• a 10-3 win over Iowa in which Michigan gained 267 yards

Michigan's offense sat in the 70s in SP+ a year after finishing 25th and returning pretty much everyone. Jim Harbaugh said something about how his offense was on the verge of clicking that everyone on the internet and off scoffed at. I deleted a sassy quote tweet instead of sending it, not because I disagreed with everyone else but because it was more trouble than it's worth.

Even a couple games later Michigan was coming off a blowout of Illinois that featured an Illini run from 28-0 down to 28-25 and a Penn State game in which Michigan's many, many errors outran a down-to-down pounding. This was progress. It was easy to see but hard to feel. Those games appear vastly different when they're at the tail end of the eight games mentioned above than when they are the start of the final six games of this season.

But it turned out Harbaugh was right: Michigan was close to clicking on offense. Since he said that Michigan's been held under 38 points once, by Penn State. That game featured one Michigan drive end on a blatant uncalled PI, a second go in the tank after Nico Collins had a 45-yard catch wiped out by a horrible OPI, and a drop in the endzone that would have tied it. That was a 417 yard performance that should have been closer to 500.

Every other game has been a hamblasting, culminating in a game where Shea Patterson was undeniably elite. The offense has climbed all the way to 26th in SP+, with legions of Michigan fans badgering Bill Connelly to run the numbers after Iowa to see where this version of Michigan lands.

The looming cliff this weekend looks like it has handholds for the first time. Not many, and perilously spaced. But Ohio State is no longer a blank, unscalable wall of steel.

[After THE JUMP: thrown it to Nico]

AWARDS

[Barron]

Known Friends And Trusted Agents Of The Week

you're the man now, dog

#1 Shea Patterson. Bombs away. Patterson hit a half-dozen downfield shots en route to a 11.4 YPA day. No screens here—at least no successful ones. Only one incident of free yards. 3 DPIs not counted in those totals. A ton of pinpoint passes as Patterson returned to being a lethal passer when you put him in a clean pocket. PFF had him for six DOs.

#2 Nico Collins. Six catches for 156 yards. ~54 of these were free as an Indiana safety took a miserable angle to him on what should have been a 12-yard catch, but he was only targeted eight times. The two targets he didn't catch were what should have been a 51-yard TD that Patterson missed and our weekly panic DPI. Eight targets is good; next week he needs 12.

#3 Josh Uche. A sack-strip turned into a one-play Nico Collins TD drive and was the dagger. He also crushed an Indiana jet sweep on third and one to boot the Hoosiers off the field and registered two other QB hurries that do not do his presence justice.

Honorable mention: Mike Dwumfour drew a fourth-down holding call and had a few other nice plays besides. Whole Dang OL kept Patterson extremely clean and also paved some guys on the right side of the line. DPJ had a circus catch TD and various other participations. Paye and Hutchinson both dialed up sacks. Giles Jackson provided entertainment, if not yards, and then caught a 50-yard wheel route.

KFaTAotW Standings

NOTE: New scoring! HM: 1 point. #3: 3 points. #2: 5 points. #1: 8 points. Split winners awarded points at the sole discretion of a pygmy marmoset named Luke.

23: Shea Patterson(HM MTSU, #1 Rutgers. HM PSU, #2 MSU, #1 Indiana)
21: Josh Uche (#3 MTSU, #3 Army, T2 Rutgers, #2 Illinois, HM ND, T1 Maryland, HM MSU, #3 Indiana)
18: Nico Collins (HM Rutgers, HM Iowa, #1 PSU, #3 Maryland, HM MSU, #2 Indiana),  Aidan Hutchinson(#1 Army, HM Rutgers, T1 Iowa, HM Illinois, HM ND, T1 Maryland, HM Indiana)
15: Whole Dang OL(#2 PSU, #1 ND, HM Maryland, HM Indiana).
13: Zach Charbonnet (#2 MTSU, #2 Army, HM PSU, HM ND, HM Maryland)
12: Cam McGrone(HM Rutgers, T3 Iowa, HM Illinois, #3 PSU, #2 ND), Jordan Glasgow (HM MTSU, T3 Iowa, #1 Illinois, HM Maryland), Ronnie Bell (HM Army, T3 Rutgers, HM Illinois, #1 MSU)
10:  Ambry Thomas (#1 MTSU, HM Rutgers, HM Illinois), Kwity Paye (T2 Rutgers, T1 Iowa, HM PSU, T1 Maryland)
9: Khaleke Hudson (#2 Iowa, HM Illinois, HM ND, HM Maryland, HM MSU)
7: Josh Metellus (HM Army, HM Iowa, #2 Maryland), Hassan Haskins (#3 Illinois, #3 ND, HM Maryland)
6: Lavert Hill (HM Army, HM Iowa, HM ND, #3 MSU)
3: DPJ (T3 Rutgers, HM MSU), Mike Danna (T1 Maryland, HM MSU)
2: Dax Hill(HM Rutgers, HM Iowa), Tru Wilson (HM ND, HM Maryland), Will Hart (HM MTSU, HM Maryland), Carlo Kemp(HM MSU), Giles Jackson (HM Maryland, HM Indiana)
1:  Josh Ross (HM, MTSU), Sean McKeon (HM, MTSU),Brad Hawkins (HM Army), Christian Turner (HM Rutgers), Nick Eubanks (HM Illinois), Brad Hawkins (HM ND), Michael Barrett (HM Maryland).

Who's Got It Better Than Us(?) Of The Week

That RPO slant from Patterson to Collins meets not even token safety resistance; 76 yards later Michigan's up three scores and the threat of dumb is definitively receding.

 

Honorable mention: Awesome defensive/special teams play (this time the Uche sack/strip) is immediately followed by an easy #buttzone Nico Collins TD for the second consecutive week. Dax Hill digs out a deflected interception that looks like Jabrill Peppers fielding a tough punt. DPJ makes a circus catch for a touchdown. Ronnie Bell scores!

​MARCUS HALL EPIC DOUBLE BIRD OF THE WEEK.

Indiana's second TD drive makes the first seem like a trend, not a fluke, and doubt once again blossoms.

Honorable mention: Many TE screens to Peyton Hendershot. Refereeing decisions related to Lavert Hill. Will Hart punts weird. Tom Allen's pregame speech is televised. TV doesn't bother to show a swinging gate two-point conversion. Michigan goes conservative at the end of the first half.

OFFENSE

demonic [Fuller]

Threw it to Nico. Michigan finally spent a game ruthlessly exploiting the massive advantages they had over the opposition secondary, and it felt good. Collins's game is detailed above. It landed him on the national PFF team of the week. (An objection: that includes Cody White on the second team; Rutgers games shouldn't count.)

This should have been Collins's season. Unless his competitors for most DPIs drawn scored this weekend he's now pulled into the national lead with 9, on 50-70% of the targets those guys get. And it's easy!

.@UMichFootball's WRs are playing on All-Star Mode today.

This time it's Nico Collins with the TD reception: pic.twitter.com/BEbUjsk52o

— Big Ten Network (@BigTenNetwork) November 23, 2019

The standout quality of most Nico Collins touchdowns is how easy they appear to be. The ball is placed high. The defensive back is already in bad position to do anything about it, and then the 6'4" guy climbs the ladder and sits on the DB's head.

If there's a path to an OSU upset it's Nico Collins sitting on a first-round NFL corner's head. And… I'm not saying that's going to happen. But there's a chance.

going for degree of difficulty I guess [Fuller]

The other guys ain't bad either. Peoples-Jones redeemed a couple of Patterson misses that felt real frustrating at the time and are a lot less so now. The above catch was against Tiawan Mullen and is probably going to be the extraordinarily rare combo of a DO throw and a circus catch in my grading. Mullen can't play that better and M still beat him.

On top of that, Black had a nice intermediate catch and suffered a couple of DPIs of his own. Bell had a less efficient day than his compatriots, in part because he suffered the bad end of a 60-40 DPI call and Patterson came to him late a couple times, but he did score his first touchdown of the year.

Also…

bonus points for Jackson as hype man [Fuller]

Little guys downfield. Two of Patterson's bombs went to Giles Jackson and Mike Sainristil. Sainristil's catch was more impressive as he had relatively tight coverage and was able to make an over the shoulder catch while slightly off-balance. Jackson blew past a linebacker on a wheel route and just had to bring in a pinpoint throw.

Still, we've seen a lot of exciting jitterbug types have their careers die on the vine when they can't take advantage of downfield opportunities. Even Steve Breaston, who went on to have a long NFL career, ended up dropping a lot of deep shots early in his senior year. For speed in space to be maximally effective the little guys have to pay off their open-field ability by getting over the top of DBs expecting something short. It's good to see both of Michigan's freshman slots get downfield chunks.

Jackson's wheel route was an RPS +3 on which he was in the backfield as a running back and participated in a token mesh point that looked a lot like Michigan's extensive RPO game. Linebacker sucked up and that was that. I'd expect Jackson to get some carries out of the backfield next year since that's something he's used to—he spent his junior year of high school as a running back—and for Michigan to have a dedicated RB/WR hybrid spot he shares with Chris Evans.

Another game of flawless pickups. Michigan's interior line can't have suffered more than a few pass pro minuses over the last half-season, as Michigan consistently puts up UFR protection lines where they grade out between 80 and 90 percent, with scattered minuses handed out to the tackles and then cameos from a tight end or a running back. Going into this week we discovered that Cesar Ruiz was the top-rated pass-pro center in the country…

Per @PFF_College, here are the highest-graded pass-blocking Centers in the nation (min. 200+ pass block snaps):

1. Cesar Ruiz (Michigan)
2. Junior Diaz (FAU)
3. Matt Hennessy (Temple)
4. Keith Ismael (San Diego State)
5. Tyler Biadasz (Wisconsin)

— Jarad Evans (@Jarad_Evans) November 22, 2019

…and the guys flanking him are right there with him:

In fact, Bredeson's pass-blocking grade is tops among all offensive linemen in the nation, regardless of position.

Bredeson has allowed just 5 total pressures in 366 pass blocking snaps. Zero of these pressures have resulted in a QB hit or sack.

— Jarad Evans (@Jarad_Evans) November 21, 2019

We don't have data that recent on Onwenu but as of a month ago he was at six pressures in 225 snaps as he made the PFF midseason All-America team. I know I've asserted that Ruiz hasn't been quite the Rimington-level guy we were hoping for this year but that's largely based on some middling stuff on the ground. He and the guards have been lights out otherwise.

Remember the MSU double-A gap blitz? MSU ran it once, ran a double-A-gap-with-extra-safety, got clunked both times, and gave up.

This is not a Patterson complaint. Michigan settled for a field goal after an attempted dumpoff to Charbonnet fell incomplete. Afterward Todd Blackledge, former QB, provided color commentary on a replay where this was the situation:

This coverage was judged to have "forced Shea Patterson to look to the other side." Ban QBs from color commentary. Linebackers only. Chris Spielman's open disgust at football players doing things that are not good football things is badly missed. This is a complaint about QBs doing color commentary.

DEFENSE

going at Dax Hill worked early [Barron]

The script. The opposition comes in with one. It works for a bit. Michigan adjusts, and the opponent's offense goes away. Here Indiana had a bunch of frustrating perimeter screens, particularly to their tight end, and some ways to slice up Michigan's zone for 6-8 yards at a time. They added a couple of chunks, one a slot corner route right at Dax Hill on the first snap of his first start, one the 2012 Nebraska rub wheel also right at Hill.

The latter saw Nebraska check, pull their WRs tight, and adopt a tactic that's been around the block. It looked like Michigan had a way to deal with it because as Ambry Thomas got cut off by one of the outside receivers he started yelling and pointing at Hill to cover the wheel; Hill was too late making the swap.

Once Hill settled in the Indiana offense struggled. The tone was set on Indiana's first attempt to go down the field. Carlo Kemp and Aidan Hutchison met at the quarterback, with Hutchinson hitting Ramsey's arm on what turned into a Hill interception. From that point on any time Indiana got in long, or even medium, yardage Michigan threw on the jetpack DL and Indiana swiftly exited the field. They had no ability to recover from a negative play.

Except for that one. The main exception to this was the third and twenty conversion on which Ramsey had absolutely forever and managed to hit a guy who was on a fly route when the WR turned his route into the world's longest improvised comeback route. Both of the DBs bracketing him stopped running, because they could not compute a play against this defense that would still be live at that point. I was watching it and could not compute that play.

grade: present [Fuller]

The shape of a game in a box score. Michigan's starting ILBs combined for 2 solo tackles and 3 assisted ones. Glasgow got a QB hurry; there were no other stats for those two. Glasgow is Michigan's #2 tackler and McGrone would certainly be #3 or better if he'd started the whole year (he's four tackles behind Josh Metellus for the #3 spot). Indiana made them the guy arriving to help up the tackler.

Indiana's dink attack goes through iterations depending on who's running it but it's always the same thing. For middle linebackers it's a lot of running to the sideline without statistical reward.

must have been thrilled to be on the field for a pass [Barron]

Dwumfour had a day. Mike Dwumfour had one of the plays of the game when he beat the Indiana LT and drew a holding call on fourth and one; that was a no-doubter as it prevented him from whacking Stevie Scott in the backfield. Scott may have toughed out that first down anyway. Dwumfour was going to have a good shot at forcing a turnover on downs, which he effectively did anyway.

In addition to that Dwumfour batted a ball at the line of scrimmage and had two or three other impactful instances of run D on which he didn't get a box score attaboy. 4-5 impact plays when the opposition is hardly running at all and you're playing under half the snaps is an excellent day.

One of the weirder Don Brown subplots. Michigan almost never takes its starting defense off the field. Everyone reading this column had a woozy moment when Josh Uche went down late and spent the rest of the game wincing at any contact. This emphasized the fact that Michigan doesn't take their back seven starters off the field until it's way deeper into blowout time than you'd think.

So: Hill, Hudson, and Josh Metellus did not come off the field. McGrone only did on some dime snaps. The starting CB rotation was out there with eight minutes left in the game. This is a consistent theme. Only in the most dire blowouts (Rutgers) does Michigan go to a full second-team D.

My only hypothesis is that Brown loathes giving up yards and points in Kenpom time. Which fair enough, so do I.

[Barron]

Speaking of Uche. Unblockable on the edge again, no doubt adding to his nation-leading pass-rush win rate. He gets his main competitor in that department next week, and I have to wonder if the gap in their respective draft statuses is going to hold up. Young is a no-doubt #1 overall pick. They showed a graphic in this game containing Todd McShay's ranking for Uche: #105.

I know Uche's a weird piece on a college defense but isn't he a much cleaner one in various NFL defenses, particularly 3-4s? Just stick him at your most pass-rush oriented OLB spot and call it a day. It's possible I don't know anything about NFL 3-4 defenses, because Green Bay apparently thinks Rashan Gary is a 3-4 OLB. But I have a dollar saying Uche doesn't get out of the second round.

Hill penalty evals. There were three:

1. Pass interference on route Hill has won over the top on an uncatchable ball. Hot garbage.
2. Holding on a tunnel screen on which the ball is out a half-second after Hill makes contact, which you almost never see called; a similarly early Indiana player didn't get flagged when he hit Bell on a potential chunk play. Regular garbage.
3. Hill is beaten over the top and has a subtle but also obvious hold of the jersey. Legitimate.

SPECIAL TEAMS

[Fuller]

The pre-tackle portion of the kickoff returns also went well. Jackson's "touchdown" ended up getting called back but only to the 37 since he'd slalomed through some gates and nearly broke it; a second return ended up down at the 20 when the last guy between Jackson and 20-80 yards got in a diving ankle tackle. It's not too hard to imagine Jackson blowing up as a return specialist next year if DPJ goes and Jackson gets the punt return job, which you'd think he would.

Wonky puntery. Will Hart's been a forgotten man since Michigan's offense kicked into high gear, and then he put up 31 and 24 yard punts that landed in the field of play. This seems hard to do. (Source: watching Iowa punt from the +35 for 20 years.) I'm content with Hart as a bomber with no short game, and then in this game he has two accidental pooches and then pins Indiana inside their five right before halftime. Okay.

[Barron]

A replay would have been nice. Michigan converted a two point conversion on a swinging gate that the director only cut to halfway through the play and then never came back to. As far as I can tell, Michigan put McCaffrey out there as the holder, had the kicker do one of those hands-up-I'm-open fakes with the line, and then ran McCaffrey into a ton of wide open space for an easy conversion.

After the game someone asked Tom Allen whether he was mad about this, which was ridiculous. It was the third quarter and Michigan had just scored to go up 16. Nothing that happens in the third quarter is running up the score. Allen more or less said as much. Weird Q.

Almost. Khaleke Hudson was about a foot from another couple punt blocks. I don't think I've ever been expecting a punt block before.

MISCELLANEOUS

What it feels like to score your first touchdown as your team's leading receiver in week 11. What it says on the tin.

[Barron]

You gotta go. Michigan faced third and four at the Indiana 44 with a minute left in the first half. They ran with Tru Wilson, which is defensible as long as you're prepared to follow through on a potential fourth down. Wilson got a yard, Indian called timeout with 54 seconds left, and Michigan punted. Hart pinned Indiana deep and they ran a couple times to get to halftime.

I think you can make a case for both of these moves. Indiana's time out prevented Michigan running it down to ~15 seconds and then going for it in a much lower downside situation. It did induce a punt.

The case in favor of the punt is that Indiana's offense isn't explosive and isn't likely to drive into field goal range given the parameters set. That's probably not a good case—everything I've seen suggests that 4th and 3 on the +43 is deep into go-for-it territory, especially in a game tilted towards offense. Thumbs down.

Redshirts. With one exception it's definitive at this point:

• Not redshirting: Chris Hinton, Giles Jackson, Mike Sainristil, Cornelius Johnson, Zach Charbonnet, Erick All, Dax Hill, Anthony Solomon.
• Probably redshirting: DJ Turner II (has three games).
• Redshirting: Cade McNamara, George Johnson III, all OL, Mazi Smith, Mike Morris, Gabe Newburg, David Ojabo, Joey Velazquez, Charles Thomas, Jalen Perry, Quinten Johnson

Also Josh Ross is redshirting after getting Wally Pipped by McGrone. Ross can play either against OSU or in the bowl.

All of these make sense except for Solomon, who's played exclusively on special teams and probably could have been replaced by a walk-on to cover kickoffs for a few games or whatever. You could argue that Johnson should have redshirted but he's gotten in a reasonable number of important snaps and the uncertainty at WR next year means he could be thrust in to a major role.

Did he have to watch it all the way to the ground? It's not the end of Eight Mile, sir.

The sassiest delayed intentional grounding call I have ever seen pic.twitter.com/qWQIpZ391P

— Jacob Gase (@JacobGase) November 23, 2019

TURNOVER LAWN CHAIR. I think we already knew this but Patrick got confirmation that Indiana is still running around with a totemic lawn chair:

HAIL TO CHAAAAAAIR [Barron]

With the demise of the turnover trash can this may be the funniest sideline totem in the game. I need a 30 for 30 on this thing.

HERE

Best and Worst:

Best/Worst: Enjoy It While You Can

Nico Collins finally had his breakout statistical game against IU, picking up 3 TDs as part of a 6-catch, 165-yard performance. He showcased the full repertoire, skying over defenders, blocking them out in the endzone, racing them to the pylon in the open field, and even picking up a DPI when IU's defenders gave up. It's been part of a larger effort these past 4-5 games to establish him as the unstoppable downfield threat we've all been hearing about. And this is how he should be used; not so much as a pure jump-ball guy (like how ND sometimes uses Claypool), but as part of a coherent offensive system that tests teams with guys like Bell, DPJ, Black and McKeon in addition to Collins. He poses a mismatch against any defender you can throw at him, and that's an athletic advantage Michigan has to take advantage of.

Sadly, my guess is this is the last season for Collins at Michigan. He's a prototypical NFL receiver, and while I could make a colorable argument for why guys like DPJ and Black need to return, it's hard to apply the same logic to Collins. It would obviously be great if he comes back, but if not hopefully these last couple of games serve as highlight reels for him.

ELSEWHERE

Collins and Patterson on PFF's team of the week:

Shea Patterson, Michigan

It didn't matter the direction, depth or type of coverage that Patterson was throwing into against Indiana on Saturday, he was simply lights out after falling behind 7-14 against a much better Hoosiers team than most give credit for. Patterson threw for 371 yards and five touchdowns, hitting all five touchdowns on throws targeted at least 10 yards past the line of scrimmage. He has his Wolverines team rolling into their annual showdown with Ohio State, reaching highs that we haven't seen from him this year at the very right time.

Uche was second team.

Polls!

lol pic.twitter.com/glKvwTUS4c

— Matt Hinton (@MattRHinton) November 24, 2019

Advanced box score from Connelly.

Maize and Blue Nation:

For pretty much the whole season, I've been dreading this week. Like most of you, I feel this game. I feel this rivalry. Ever since the Army game, when Michigan's offense seemed lost in the woods all the while Ohio State's entire team seemingly hadn't missed a beat since waiving so long to Urban Meyer, the greatest coach in their storied history...I've been dreading this week.

But that was then.

Max Marcovitch:

Moments like these are the reason Michigan went out and got Shea Patterson in the first place. Why they brought him to the Big House to toss around snowballs two winters ago and why his visit to a basketball game was treated like a parade.

He is not, never was and never will be the savior of this program — and those who expected as such placed an unattainable burden on his shoulders. Those people set themselves up for failure before Patterson even took a snap.

But they nabbed Patterson, a blue-chip, five-star recruit, from the transfer market because he is the most talented player to play quarterback at Michigan since Denard Robinson, and it’s not particularly close. By certain traits, his talents even supercede those of Robinson. He’s the most natural passer Michigan’s had since Chad Henne; he’ll finish this year with the most efficient two-season stint at quarterback since Henne in the mid-2000s. None of that is hyperbole.

Hoover Street Rag. TTB. Ufer Cries Treason. Sap's Decals.