the whiff [Marc-Gregor Campredon]

Unverified Voracity Has A Box Score You Don't Want To See Comment Count

Brian September 10th, 2019 at 12:08 PM

Advanced box score. Bill Connelly has heard the college football internet's cries for box scores where sacks are counted against passing yardage and has posted various games from last week on twitter. Michigan-Army is one. The link has the big version. The bits that stood out other than three targets for Nico Collins are here:

image

That success rate is a full-on Lloydball turtle, and the explosiveness of Michigan's rushing game is horrendous, because Michigan spent the whole game playing 10 v 11. Michigan's rushing game was less explosive than a team that ran 29 fullback dives.

Also in this. PFF's weekly All Big Ten team has Mike Onwenu on the first team and Jalen Mayfield and Zach Charbonnet on the second team. So Michigan was less explosive on the ground than a team that ran 29 dives and half of their most important players on the ground (OL+RB) graded out at an All Big Ten level.

FWIW, Metellus, Hutchinson, and Kemp (second-team) made their defensive team.

[After THE JUMP: Don Brown things will make you feel better.]

Don Brown things. Don Brown's press conference probably has to be watched to be appreciated this week. Here he is going into detail on the goal-to-go stop:

Brown on Jordan Glasgow:

10 o’clock at night: ‘Coach, I’ll be available tomorrow morning at 7:20. I’d like to go over my plays.’ ‘Okay, I’ll see you tomorrow to go over your plays.’ ‘I specifically want to go over my nakeds.’ ‘Okay, we’ll go over the nakeds.’

“I mean, he’s a junkie. He might be one of the funnest guys in the world to coach, because he loves it. He eats it. He drinks it and he backs it up, because he smashes everybody that moves.”

Brown also said Ross's injury was a "stinger," so he should be back for Wisconsin.

Quit scheduling service academies, part one billion. All of this time could have been dedicated to OSU:

Michigan won't face an offense like that again, which is why preparing for Army was "very disruptive."

And the Wolverines allocated a lot of resources toward stopping the Black Knights. In at least 10 of 15 spring practices, one period was "donated to the triple option." From the third practice of fall camp through the week of the Middle Tennessee State game, Michigan practiced its triple option defense every day.

What are we doing dot gif.

Offense structure and Patterson health. Meanwhile, Gattis:

“No, nothing’s by design,” Gattis said of the Patterson holding onto the ball. “Everything we do has some level of a read, whether it’s an RPO read or quarterback read run. It’s a little bit complex when you look at it, as far as the reads, because you have to decide how they’re playing. Obviously, Army did some things on Saturday, jetting their guys up the field to be able to take the quarterback read away. But it gave us favorable matchups inside – six-man boxes and six-man blocking surfaces.

“One of the things they did a really good job of is continuing to pressure. I think they pressured 85-something percent of the time. It’s just cleaning up the little things. Every quarterback read run isn’t always going to be a pull. There was some that he should have pulled, and there was one he shouldn’t have pulled in two-minute (drill). That was one that he should have gave the ball."

The one he shouldn't have pulled was a corner blitz on which the RB was going to get crunched by the end, so that's an RPS issue by my reckoning, not a Patterson one. The ones he should have pulled are apparently going in the Patterson bin; he's going to have another mega-negative run grade.

Gattis also confirmed the oblique injury:

“He’s been banged up the past two weeks with oblique,” Gattis said. “Something that he’s struggled with since the first week of Middle Tennessee. That had no effect – I hope it had no effect on his decision-making from that standpoint."

I hope it did, though? Gattis then asserted that the rando in the stands is not equipped to say whether a pull was correct all the time and that Michigan had "favorable matchups inside – six-man boxes and six-man blocking surfaces." There is some of that, but pretty frequently in my charting the lack of a pull puts Michigan in a situation where there is a free hitter in the box. I think some of this is just covering for some extremely bad decisions.

Do you need video of a distressed anthropomorphic bagel? The alumni association is a font of bagels and coffee  for students every Wednesday, but construction has troubled our little town.

This is posited as helping the bagel but really they're just going to slice it in half and feast on its corpse. Anyway, happy bageling!

Prompt service. Remember last year's scourge of yellow down and distance chyron? It took a few weeks before the appropriate person was thwapped upside the head and saner colors prevailed. This time around—how does this person keep getting hired?—the flag-impersonation chaos agent was in the NFL and didn't last for even one game:

ESPN pulled it at halftime and replaced it with a nice black logo that did not seem like a flag on every play. When this happens in the CFL next year you'll know this person has been fired and emigrated.

The fake punt. Harbaugh on Attack Each Day:

"Special teams, there’s the play of the game, Mike Barrett to Dax Hill, that was great to see," Harbaugh said. "The penalty was on us. We were called for a penalty. They were showing a corner pressure and Chris Partridge came up to me and asked if they could fake it, which was a pass from Barrett to Dax Hill. I said, yeah, let’s do it. That was fourth and 10. Mike made the throw to an open Dax and Dax had the wherewithal that he didn’t have the first down yet. He caught it after seven and had another three to get. Made an inside move and picked up about 10 more. It was great."

So that was not an option Barrett has whenever he sees it. 

The bill proceeds. Nancy Skinner's bill to restore name and image rights to athletes at California schools passed the full state assembly 72-0—one wonders if the NCAA got Rutger'd here—and now has just a reconciliation between the assembly and senate versions before it hits the governor's desk. The NCAA has threatened to ban California schools from post-season activity:

Scott and other leaders in college sports — including the N.C.A.A. president, Mark Emmert, in a letter to California legislators this summer — paint a doomsday scenario for the state’s athletic teams if the bill becomes law. They say that colleges in California could be prohibited from competing for N.C.A.A. championships because they would have an unfair recruiting advantage — being able to lure athletes with the possibility of cashing in on anything from jersey sales to sponsorship deals.

“It’s like you and I sit down to play Monopoly and I pull out a different rule book and every time I pass Go, I’m going to give myself $400 instead of $200,” said Andy Fee, the athletic director at Long Beach State. “I don’t imagine too many people are going to be willing to allow California schools to compete for N.C.A.A. championships.”

But relevant law-talking guys think this would be impossible under antitrust law, which bars trade organizations like the NCAA from having bylaws that violate state or federal law. Also:

…the NCAA's attempt to ban California colleges from postseason tournaments in retaliation for the State of California passing a bill to increase the financial rights and economic well-being of college athletes is likely to be deemed to violate the implied common law rights of good faith and fair dealing that exist in every contract. This is because the NCAA, as a monopolist trade association, is punishing several of its private members for doing exactly what their state law requires them to do.

There are nascent versions of Skinner's bill in various state houses that may get through before 2023, when the Skinner bill is set to take effect. (The delay is to allow the NCAA to adjust to the new reality.)

Etc.: More on Mike Danna. Glasgow got a real nice PFF grade last week.

Comments

RAH

September 10th, 2019 at 1:59 PM ^

Your statement assumes that Harbaugh is still developing the game plan and calling the plays. Isaiah Hole absolutely guaranties that Gattis is running his own offense. Gattis has unequivocally said he is running the offense. Harbaugh says Gattis is running the offense. Numerous other people with connections to the program say Gattis is running the offense. The only people I hear saying that Harbaugh is running this offense are anonymous commenters who have no actual information but are convinced they can sit in their basements and intuit the truth. 

Vinny The Microwave

September 10th, 2019 at 2:14 PM ^

What’s the more likely scenario 

Drevno, Pep, and now Gattis all call the exact same plays, in the same situations, and get the same results 

Or Jim wants it his way and the second the team is hit with a bit of adversity, he takes back over and calls what he wants called. 

EastCoast_Wolv…

September 10th, 2019 at 2:42 PM ^

I don't think Harbaugh is taking over play-calling, but I do think he is influencing the overall playcalling strategy.

He could certainly have said to Gattis and Patterson at half time that he wants more emphasis on time of possession and ball security, and they both interpreted that as "be more conservative with the ball". So Gattis calls a bunch of read option run plays to eat the clock, and Patterson goes conservative and hands it off most of the time to prevent any negative plays.

Sure this is pure speculation, but it's otherwise hard to reconcile the success of the play-calling in the first half with the abrupt change in the second half.

matty blue

September 11th, 2019 at 5:49 AM ^

jesus, harbaugh could get hit by a bus tomorrow and be forced to listen to the wisconsin game in a darkened room in university hospital, and a 3rd-and-5 inside run in madison will make you lose your shit about his playcalling.  give it the hell up.

also - please, by all means, post your seat numbers for the next home game so we can all sit as far away from you as humanly possible.  you can have the entire section to yourself, where you can gnash your teeth and punch yourself in the forehead every time we call a play you don't like.

go the fuck away, turd.

Vinny The Microwave

September 11th, 2019 at 10:54 AM ^

Jim is the head coach and this is his team.  He doesn't get a pass on anything.  The buck stops with him.  The offense has been absolutely terrible this year and has been pretty bad for a lot of his tenure here. 


go the fuck away, turd.

That's cool.  I think I'll stay.

Vinny The Microwave

September 10th, 2019 at 2:11 PM ^

Yes - I am the stupid one that looks at the dog shit offense on the field and calls it dog shit and then puts the blame on the head coach, in his 5th year with no improvements to the same issues that have plagued his teams for half a decade now.

You are the intelligent one who sees what no one else does and actually Michigan is the best offense in the country.  Jim is just saving the good plays for Wisconsin and OSU. 

Pathetic ass fans like you make me laugh. 

AlbanyBlue

September 10th, 2019 at 2:47 PM ^

God, I love the internet. Ad hominem attacks whenever there's a deviation from groupthink.

Yes, Gattis, coming from a different system than Harbaugh has run at Michigan, just happens to run the offense in essentially the same way as Harbaugh and the other co-OCs have in the exact same situations from previous years.

The ass puckers once again in a tight, pressure-filled game and we have the brick wall again. Yes, I am sure Harbaugh has no say. C'mon. They can't tell you on camera that Gattis has had his wings clipped -- then the M braintrust would be acting like Dantonio.  

Benthom11

September 10th, 2019 at 3:13 PM ^

Oklahoma had the #1 offense in both points per game and yards per game last year.  They scored 21 against Army in regulation last year.  

 

Total yards vs Army for OU: 355

Total yards vs Army for UM: 340

 

That is despite UM having 2 more turnovers than OU and 5 more penalties than OU.

 

 

taistreetsmyhero

September 10th, 2019 at 8:23 PM ^

Would much prefer to see the advanced box score Brian posted here for OU to get a better apples-to-apples comparison. I have serious doubts that the OU offense was as woefully inefficient as Michigan against Army. I bet it more had to do with the OU defense failing to get off the field and giving the offense very few chances to score.

And even if OU performed similar to Michigan, you still have comical maize colored glasses if you predict this offense will come close to OU’s production for the rest of the year.

unWavering

September 10th, 2019 at 12:54 PM ^

The coaches are smart.  If people outside the program are saying they should do things differently, they're either wrong, or the coaches will decide they should do things differently as well.  

Obviously there were things about the offense that didn't work very well against Army.  I tend to think those things will be tweaked and corrected.  And I'm not sure how indicative the offensive performance against Army is anyway - the strategy seemed to be to play ball control in the 2nd half, which meant running into a basically stacked box.  Whether or not that was a good tactical approach can be debated - but we won the game.  And I don't think it tells us anything about how they'll attack other teams.

The offense will be fine, provided they can stop putting the ball on the goddamn turf.

unWavering

September 10th, 2019 at 1:12 PM ^

When we'd already fumbled the ball on dropbacks twice and potentially have an injured QB throwing it, there are higher chances of turning it over vs running the ball.

In the 2nd half, if we had another turnover, it could've easily cost us the game.  Seems like the coaches wanted to avoid that as much as possible.  Not saying that it was the correct approach, but I can see some reasoning to it.

Reggie Dunlop

September 10th, 2019 at 2:19 PM ^

All theories make a little bit of sense, but are also easily disproven.

If Michigan went into a 10-consecutive run shell to reduce risk, they did so immediately following an 11-play drive where Patterson was 4-for-5 passing for 37 yards (7.4 ypa) while the 6 runs netted 8 yards (1.33 ypc) and killed the drive by getting obliterated on 4th and 2.

In that drive, in the same tie game, the pass worked and run was shit.

The drive before that was the only scoring drive of the half for either team, an 12 play, 78 yarder where Patterson threw 5 times for 59 yards (including a 15 yard penalty - a result from throwing), while they ran 7 times for 19 yards (2.7 ypc).

After those two drives in the same uncomfortably tight game where passing worked and running was useless, Michigan then ran the 8 remaining plays of regulation. Say whatever you want about clock management. In a tie game with 5 minutes left, they needed three points. They tried to run for it even though the run game sucked and the passing game was at least moderately effective. If they were afraid of risk, they developed it after two successful drives where they didn't care... and then threw it again 5 of the 8 plays they ran in overtime. Risk aversion doesn't hold up.

I understand optimism. Believe it or not, I'm an optimist. I'm hoping this is fixed fast. What happened Saturday made absolutely no sense.

Pants McPants

September 10th, 2019 at 2:17 PM ^

I literally have no idea what your coaches are doing. Even if you want to run the ball, you don't have to run up the middle every play. Jet sweep? Reverse? End Around? Imagine Charbonnet taking one of those fifty straight handoffs and tossing it back to Shea. He'd probably be looking at a WR or TE standing by himself downfield, facing him waving his arms. Too risky? For a 10th year senior QB or whatever Shea is? Why is that? Who's coaching him? Was he too injured? Why was he out there? Other guy not ready? Why? Who is coach...etc...

 

GoBlue96

September 10th, 2019 at 1:01 PM ^

There won't be any injury excuses in 2 weeks against Wisconsin.  Time to go out and play like we are the better coached team.  They've been severely out coached in 3 of the last 4 games on one or both sides of the ball.

LKLIII

September 10th, 2019 at 3:36 PM ^

Agree they need to come out less sloppy.  I respectfully disagree about the injury assertion.  I  *hope* we are substantially healthier & that excuse will be off the table, but that assumes the 2 weeks will be enough time to get the key injured players significantly more healthy & that no key player gets injured or aggravates an existing injury between now & the Wisconsin game.

I don't think we know enough about the nature of the injuries to Shea, Dwumfor, Runyan, and DPJ to know that for sure.

itauditbill

September 10th, 2019 at 1:06 PM ^

So Coach Brown says that there was a lot of prep for the triple option then Coach Brown says Army runs triple option 4%... I think I must be misunderstanding something there. (See video at the :29 mark). 

Reggie Dunlop

September 10th, 2019 at 2:54 PM ^

They don't actually run an option play very often. That's where (and a coach could put it better) you read the interior, if its open you give to the fullback. If it's not, you pull it and run to the perimeter, and if they're taking you, you pitch to the back. Three options, dive, QB, or pitch man. Triple option. It's a play. Army doesn't actually run that play much. They mostly decide pre-snap who's getting the ball and then run dive or outside depending.

Something like that. It has the same flexbone look. It's the "triple option" offense, but they don't run the option play much.

itauditbill

September 10th, 2019 at 1:10 PM ^

As to banning California schools from NCAA Championships.. sure one year too late... if it had been last year U of M could have gotten that Director's Cup they always wanted!

DCGrad

September 10th, 2019 at 1:28 PM ^

The NCAA has 2 options if this California bill becomes law: 

1.  They allow all players NIL rights and get paid, more or less ending amateurism; or

2. They kick all the CA schools out of the NCAA for all D1, D2, D3 sports. 

I can’t imagine the NCAA waiving goodbye to Stanford, USC, and UCLA, but who knows.  They could ask for a carve out, but that will defeat the purpose of the bill.

If CA is kicked out of the NCAA, what are the odds that other schools will voluntarily leave in order to allow NIL rights to their players as well? I would think it would be pretty likely.

I don’t think UM would be first on the wagon out of the NCAA unless the B1G voted unanimously to leave. And the NIL are protecting schools like Maryland and MSU who can occasionally get high profile athletes, but who couldn’t pay them UM, OSU, PSU money.  I don’t think the B1G would unanimously vote to leave.  I’m really interested in watching it all unfold.  

LKLIII

September 10th, 2019 at 2:51 PM ^

  1. I can't see the NCAA granting exceptions to schools wholesale, but I could see them *maybe* allowing a bizarre hybrid system where possibly entire schools or (more likely) certain TEAMS can stay in the NCAA, so long as no player on a current roster is getting compensated for NIL.  

    To illustrate, it's possible that in many of the DIII or DII schools--or in non-revenue sports in the DI schools--an entire team might not have any player with a NIL contract.  Not because the schools prohibit it (so they're still complying with the new CA law), but rather, there just isn't any interest from would-be NIL sponsors in sponsoring certain athletes such that an entire roster could be "clean" for that entire season. E.G., no athletes on the Stanford women's soccer team has a NIL deal, so--for that season--they are compliant with NCAA rules.

    Of course, what complicates things is what happens if a new NIL deal crops mid-season or during the off-season, or secretly a contract is made when the athlete is on the team, but the payouts don't happen until after they leave the squad.  Plus, the NCAA could argue that even having the ability to dangle *possible* NIL deals is an unfair advantage in recruiting, even if such NIL deals never come to fruition.
     
  2. Interestingly, the NCAA does not own or directly control the College Football Playoffs (unlike the playoff/championship systems for all the other football divisions FCS & lower).  All the NCAA does is recognize the champion that is crowed by the CFP as the de facto champion of the NCAA FBS Division.  In reality, the CFP is owned & directly controlled by "BCS Properties, LLC" & the member owners are the 10 FBS conferences and the University of Notre Dame.  If push ever came to shove, I'm sure the NCAA could split with various FBS schools or entire FBS conferences, and the NCAA would refuse to acknowledge the legitimacy of any champion crowned by the CFP and set up a competing system. 

    However, if enough of the member owners of BCS Properties, LLC (Notre Dame & the 10 BCS conferences) voted to side with the CFP rather than the NCAA, they'd already have an existing turn-key playoff infrastructure in place ready to go.  Yes, they may have to set up a new governing body for the schools/football teams for the regular season.  They could also join some currently existing small-fry competitor to the NCAA who might be thrilled at the windfall of money/attenton & allow BCS Properties, LLC to dictate major amendments to their bylaws and rules.  Either way, if the major football powers ever decided to split from the NCAA, they wouldn't have to start from scratch. 
     
  3. Of course, if/when/how the NCAA ever splits up & who the primary movers are largely depends on whether there is a critical mass of schools that are convinced that their relative strength/power will be materially enhanced by making a bold break away from the NCAA.  We all know that the major football powers likely would NEVER leave the NCAA in it's current form, as by definition, they are benefiting from the status quo.  Namely, NCAA rules prohibiting payment of athletes (thus artificially depressing the overhead labor costs of the schools/Athletic Departments), but at the same time adopting a policy of willfull blindness & towards flagarant violations of certain rules & inconsistent enforcement across the NCAA that allows the elite schools who have become masters of that enviornment (off book bagman networks, institutional steroid use, institutional violation of the 20 hour per week limit on required activities in-season, etc) to continue to flourish. 

    A more likely scenario would be either the federal government/SCOTUS forcing the NCAA & any other student athlete organization to allow players to enter NIL deals, or if the status quo continues, some critical mass of current NCAA schools NOT in the elite strata breaking off to form/join a new athletic association.  That associaton would either:
  • Have a substantially different set of rules (i.e. clearly sanctioning payment of athletes--schools obligated to allow NIL like those in California may join, along with schools with "big money" donor networks who are ABLE to pay players, but who are unwilling to do it if not officialy sanctioned by the governing body--Michigan, Notre Dame, etc.), or
     
  • Largely having similar rules to the NCAA, but just with a culture of genuine, uniform, and rigorous rule enforcement against bagmen, steroids, etc. (i.e., if SCOTUS doesn't require the allowance of NIL deals, the smaller/high academic schools in the current BCS breaking off becasue they are sick of being the sparring dummies for the chronic cheaters at the top of the NCAA heap).

lhglrkwg

September 10th, 2019 at 6:11 PM ^

I'm gonna say 0% chance the NCAA moves to kick out the CA schools. I don't think the rest of the P5 wants to pay athletes either because it's complex and messes with the cash flow, but I also don't think the P5 is going to support the NCAA banning a single state just because I don't think they'll be ok with the NCAA wielding that type of power.

What I do think will happen is multiple states will pass similar laws, and then the NCAA will fight it all in court for a few years before caving and trying to come up with some type of compensation model or at least a model that allows athletes to benefit from their likeness. I can't imagine this current system will hold up in court

JJJ

September 10th, 2019 at 2:22 PM ^

Gattis is in way over his head. No where do analytics support going for it on 4th down in a close game that your team struggles to move the ball. Take the points and stop acting like you’re an expert.

Mongo

September 10th, 2019 at 2:32 PM ^

You have to realize Army takes 35+ seconds to run each play - they have no up tempo.  Change of possession plus gaining the 7 yard differential is like 140 seconds ... that is 2.20 off the game clock.  I thought the risk / reward trade-off made it a brilliant call given the opponent.  Reward if you pick it up = end the game on your terms.  Risk if you don't = not much as burning that 2.20 in "Army time" means they can't run their base offense to beat you.  They would need to throw the ball which we were confident in defending. 

Durham Blue

September 10th, 2019 at 11:46 PM ^

I had no analysts barking into my ear on that 4th down play but my gut sense after watching 35 years of Michigan football was GO FOR IT.  In lockstep with Gattis my thought was to end the game on Michigan's terms.  So, I liked the decision but hated the play call.  I only felt partial regret when we didn't pick up the first down because I knew the game would fall into Don Brown's hands.  That's not a bad situation.

LKLIII

September 10th, 2019 at 3:10 PM ^

Maybe I'm reading too much into it, but when the staff used the word "analytics" in answering the questions about the 4th down decisions, I interpreted it as either snark or a subtle dig on all the media's dicussion before & during the game of how Army always relies on "analytics" to make in-game decisions while gushing about the Army coaching staff. 

Although contradictory, I read it as our staff either saying, "In the end, "analytics" didn't get Army the damned win...NERDS!" or alternatively, "Stop gushing about "analytics" as if it's something unique to Army.  We do it too."

Mongo

September 10th, 2019 at 2:23 PM ^

This State of California versus the NCAA is a dynamite development.  Should be fun to see the legal battle and NCAA finally getting slapped around.

andrewgr

September 10th, 2019 at 6:15 PM ^

I had a multi-paragraph reply typed up in which I argued that this could be the death of college football as we know it, since it would essentially create a two-tiered system similar to the one that existed before scholarship limits, where no top player would consider anything but the very top schools that could guarantee paychecks.

Then, in support of that argument, I went through the 247sports Top 100 players for 2018, to find the ones that went to teams that weren't perenially in the top 10, to use in support of my point.

However, the data actually shows that I'm full of crap, and the two-tiered system already exists.  It's unreal how few top players sign with anyone other than the very top schools.  

You need to go down to #36 to find a player that went to a school that is not universally acknowedged as being a football factory-- he signed with UCLA.  (Yes, I know USC isn't great right now, and Miami hasn't been great in a while, but they're still schools that emphasize football and have a history that includes championships and dominant runs, and that most fans would put in the top 10 of all time and all fans would put in the top 20.)  

Out of the top 100 players, 85 of them signed with undisputed football royalty.  If you count the University of Washington, who I don't think quite reach that level but are at least close, that number goes up to 88.

TL;DR The top programs are already getting all the top players, and with limits on team size, and great players not wanting to sit on the bench their entire career, I don't think paying players would actually make much of an impact on the distribution of talent.