josh gattis

Michigan heads out on the road for the final time in the 2023 season on Saturday, heading to College Park to take on the Maryland Terrapins. The crowd will presumably be filled with Michigan fans as the Terps haven't given their side a ton to cheer about this season. The team is 6-4 and bowl eligible, which is nice, but hopes for a 9 or even 10 win season (with an upset or bowl win) have crumbled to pieces due to disappointing losses against Illinois and Northwestern. Does Maryland's offense have much left in the tank to threaten the Wolverines this weekend? Let us find out: 

The Film: The two best defenses Maryland has played this season are Penn State and Ohio State. While the PSU game was more recent, I opted for OSU because 1) The Game is next week and we need to continue to compile advance scouting and 2) Maryland's showing was much better against the Buckeyes than the Nittany Lions and I am a firm believer in scouting teams at their best, not their worst.  

Personnel: Click for big.

Michigan will face Taulia Tagovailoa for the third straight season, the only opposing QB this season to accomplish that feat. Taulia is back and is more or less the same for the Terps, still capable of excellent, NFL-level throws and also terrible decisions. He's still scrambly and mobile, though he has seemed to regress back to his 2021 form somewhat, running backwards into more egregious sacks than he did last season. He is far from a perfect QB, but he's the best Michigan has seen this season by a country mile (not a high bar), which earns him the star. Last year we saw Tagovailoa come out of the game due to injury and that backup, Billy Edwards Jr., is still around. He has been used on wildcat short yardage packages this year, as an FYI. 

The running back position features the same characters as last year, with Roman Hemby still around as the starter and joined in the backfield by Antwain Littleton II and Colby McDonald in the rotation. I was a fan of Hemby's last year but I didn't see too much from him in this game to earn that status. He's not bad, just fine in my viewings this season. Blitz pickups have been an issue for him this season but he's still a speedy straight-line runner who also catches a fair number of balls out of the backfield. McDonald's 6.7 YPC clip is best on the team, though Littleton leads him in carries with 61. At 232, Littleton is the heavy back, while Hemby and McDonald are slimmer and quicker. 

After a few years of incredibly deep wide receiver rooms, this year's Maryland team is a bit thinner on the outside. They did return their statistical best receiver from last year, Jeshaun Jones, and have two other 500+ receiving yard receivers in Tai Felton and Kaiden Prather. The raw talent isn't as dynamic as years past when you had the likes of Rakim Jarrett and Dontay Demus, but these are three of the most prolific receivers in the conference, largely because Maryland is one of the only teams that attempts to throw the ball with regularity. I think Jones is the best of this group, not really a true star but pretty close to it. All three WRs are 6'1" or taller, so this week will give Michigan's pass defense some solid reps. Those three players get most of the snaps at wideout, but slot Octavian Smith and outside WR Tyrese Chambers mix in occasionally too. 

Maryland mostly plays with one TE, Corey Dyches. He has 42 catches, second on the team and only a nose behind Jones, acting as Tagovailoa's security blanket. Dyches is not a dynamic threat nor a leaper with size to be confused with Colston Loveland (Dyches is only 6'2), but he's rock solid at running a 5-10 yard route and sitting down in the zone for a quick completion. The other TE of note is Preston Howard, only 10 catches on the season as more of a blocking option. Most of his snaps come in Maryland's occasional 12 personnel sets. Neither Howard nor Dyches are particularly great blockers. 

My biggest concern with the Terrapin offense coming into the season was the offensive line after losing four starters off last year's squad and planning to fill them with low-level up transfers. Surprisingly, my fears have not quite come to pass. Let's be clear, the resulting OL has not been good, but it also hasn't been terrible, which was my baseline expectation. Delmar Glaze, last year's RT, is the lone returning starter and has shifted over to left. He's been alright, pretty good in the game I charted against OSU but very poor against the elite rush threats of PSU. 

The story of the Maryland OL has been rotation, as eight different linemen have played at least 290 snaps and started at least three games. Glaze at LT is the only player to start every game at the same spot, while the rest has been moving around. At C it's either Aric Harris or Teddy Purcell, but Harris is definitely the better of the two (Purcell started against OSU and was very poor). The RT is normally Gottleib Ayedze, a transfer from D2 Frostburg State who I had grave concerns about in the preseason. He's been better than I expected but is a long way from being good. Sometimes Ayedze slides to G when Andre Roye Jr. or Connor Fagan come in at tackle, both of whom are not ready for primetime.

The G spots have most frequently been NC Central transfer Corey Bullock (has played both LG/RG) and Amelio Moran, the latter of whom has been a weak spot for the "starting line". Another G in the mix is Kyle Long, who got extensive work against OSU and was bad. In other words, this line is a hodgepodge, rotating quite a bit but the best five linemen can generally hang in there. The more the dig into the depth, the worse it gets. 

[AFTER THE JUMP: the clips]

Previously: Podcast 14.0A, 14.0B, 14.0C. The Story. Quarterback. Running Back. Wide Receiver. Tight End. Offensive Tackle. Interior OL. Defensive Interior. Edge. Linebacker. Cornerback. Safety. Special Teams.

1. We demand a quarterback prognostication.

Well, here's Harbaugh breaking it down:

The way I've been evaluating them is them being able to be a passer. By passer: arm talent, who can make all the throws. Both of them have the arm talent to make all the throws and it comes down to accuracy, timing, decision making, taking what the defense gives you as a passer. Cade is a little bit ahead there at this point.

Then the next category is playmaker. The guy that can turn water into wine, using his athleticism, his speed, arm talent. Runner, scrambler, plays smart, makes a play when there's no play to be made. Running ability, moves the chains as a runner. Augments the running game. Risk/reward, turn a one-yard loss into a positive play, but doesn't make the bad play worse, avoids the fumbles, the interceptions, the sacks. I have JJ ahead in that category.

And then field general — coach on the field, facilitator to the other playmakers and the offensive line. You trust them to handle the ball and every play. Is a ball protector, fix the calls, the formation, the protections, gets the checks right. Leads the unit drive-by-drive and points per possession really is what you're looking for. They're both pretty even there in that category. Maybe Cade the slight advantage there.

You can read this any way you want: McNamara wins 2/3 categories: McNamara. McCarthy is clearly ahead in playmaking while McNamara is only a "little bit ahead" or has a "slight advantage" in the other two. Meanwhile chatter from inside the program has been a muddle, with one guy ahead one day and the other ahead the next day. Alex's summary from early in camp:

What we're hearing: Right now Cade McNamara and JJ McCarthy are locked in an extremely tight duel, according to just about anyone who has offered insight. We've heard all kinds of phrases to describe it, "50-50", "a battle", "reps split down the middle". That appears to be the most factual description, while different insiders have consulted their own sources to try and interpret what it means, with Balas' source trotting out the ole "Cade will start the year, but JJ will pull through mid-season" theory ($). Those who have gone through the hassle of trying to describe individual practices are mostly rehashing what we know, that Cade has limitations with his arm and (occasionally) accuracy, while JJ makes the back-breaking naive error trying to do too much in between stretches of brilliance.

And from later in camp:

Let's start with McNamara. In his corner, we have an insider on the record flat out saying that Cade is the starter ($). Every update on the QB battle, no matter who the author is, has the same points about McNamara: 1.) he has made real improvements to his game, 2.) he protects the ball and has a good feel for the offense, and 3.) he "leads scoring drives" ($). Dependability and consistency also get brought up in reference to Cade.

As for JJ McCarthy, we hear a lot about the boom or bust moments. We hear that he's improved from last season and is on track to be an All-American during his Michigan career ($) but that right now he still has too many moments where he tries to do too much ($). Where Cade is talked about in reference to his consistency, JJ is described with the term "upside". This is all more of the same, but what is new in JJ's corner is a take from Sam Webb, claiming that McCarthy had an excellent scrimmage over the weekend, one that has left the QB room far from settled ($). Sam describes how McCarthy started fall camp with rust from his injured spring and has needed time to catch up.

In all my many years of trying to decipher camp chatter I don't think I've ever come across a situation like this where things are genuinely up in the air. I believe that the two quarterbacks are neck-and-neck to the point where nobody from Jim Harbaugh on down knows who the starting quarterback is going to be.

Our inside baseball says this is because both guys are doing well—really well. The main dynamic is that McCarthy continually threatens to push past McNamara by doing absurd things and then throws an interception. McNamara has "come very far" and the ball rarely hits the turf when either guy is throwing. So… I mean… I don't know. I genuinely do not have an assertion to make here. I put a gun to my own head for the Stupid Predictions below and ended up changing my prediction from one guy to the other, complete with explanations, four times.

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

About a month ago, I updated the 2023 recruiting board. It's a useful resource, but it is rather short on hard information about specific key recruitments, as well answers to some of the questions that readers ask in the comments. That's where football recruiting bits comes into play. Today we're going to scan the recruiting landscape for Michigan's 2023 class as we enter the most crucial portion of the cycle: the summer. Victors Weekend is less than a month away (weekend of June 17) and the Big House BBQ will be later in the summer. Many recruitments will enter their make it or break it stages and by the time the summer months are over, the class and the hunt for recruits will look very different than the present. 

Addressing the elephant in the room

When I updated the recruiting board, most of the comments were something like "WHY WE NO GET RECRUITS?????", which seems to be the mood of the Michigan Football fanbase right now. I get it. When Michigan defeated Ohio State in November and then clobbered Iowa a week later to qualify for the CFP, most believed that the Wolverines would quickly be rewarded with a top five recruiting class. Getting that 800 lb. Silverback Gorilla off Michigan's back was definitely important for the narrative, but it hasn't yet produced the sort of recruiting surge that many thought it would. Michigan currently has just six commits, not all of whom are totally locked in, and rank 22nd in the country. Meanwhile, Michigan State is making decent early progress on the class, Ohio State continues to recruit like Ohio State, and Notre Dame holds 12 commits and the #1 class in America (!!!). All of these truths has led many to mash the panic button like they're playing a video game. 

So what's going on here? First off, recruiting does not have a linear relationship with winning. They are correlated to some degree, but not exactly. For example, Mark Dantonio was never able to recruit at a high level at MSU despite ripping off 10-11 win seasons for a half-decade. On the flip side, Mel Tucker might be cobbling a better class than Dantonio ever had off a record at MSU of 13-7. Recruiting is about a lot more than winning. In many ways, it's about ~vibes~ more than anything else, which can be summed up as a combination of winning, the coaches/individual recruiters, $$$$, program history/brand, and more. You could go 12-0 every season and may not get the top class in the country if you don't have charismatic recruiters, aren't willing to play NIL, etc. 

In short, the reason Michigan has had a bumpy last five months on the recruiting trail despite the glories of 2021 is that the developments of the first six weeks of the year badly damaged the ~vibes~. Recruiting has a lot to do with individual relationships between positional coaches (who are the primary recruiters) and the players themselves (as well as the head coach), and when many of the positional coaches, coordinators, and coach all leave or threaten to leave, that does a lot of damage. It shouldn't be considered a surprise that one of the few positions that didn't see the coach switch jobs, running back, is also the only one where the class already has multiple commits. 

[Patrick Barron]

Michigan's WR, TE, DL, and S coaches all either switched positions or left the staff, in addition to both coordinators. And even guys who stayed like Matt Weiss at QB and Sherrone Moore at OL both have had to take on new responsibilities in the coordinating game with Josh Gattis gone. All this shuffling fractured relationships with recruits, as recruits had to get familiar with new positional coaches and essentially start the relationship-building stage all over again. For example, Michigan was in a great spot with 5* WR Jaylen Brown from the Miami area in early January, but since have fallen behind the pack after Josh Gattis, who was the primary recruiter, left the staff. Ron Bellamy, moving from S to WR, has been working from behind other suitors in rebuilding Brown's trust in Michigan. 

And of course, this doesn't even get into the Harbaugh --> NFL speculation. I do not blame recruits' families if they don't trust Harbaugh and his word right now, to be honest. If he says to you "I am done thinking about the NFL", he may be telling the truth, but it's hard to trust a guy who took an interview with an NFL team only a couple months ago and has coached in the NFL before. Those rumors were already powerful negative recruiting tools a few years ago, but actually interviewing with the Vikings and showing interest in that gig made it 100x worse.

Recruits and their parents want to know the man who will be coaching them. Legacy kids like Semaj Morgan were going to Michigan regardless of who the coach was, but for the many, many kids who didn't grow up with maize and blue bedsheets, it matters who the coach is. And when there is considerable doubt about who the coach will be over the next five years, it hurts recruiting. It hurt recruiting last summer when we went into 2021 wondering if Harbaugh's neck was on the block below the guillotine, and it hurts recruiting this summer after the NFL flirtation.

[AFTER THE JUMP: Big fish worth following]