[Marc-Gregor Campredon]

Unverified Voracity Had A Bad Night Comment Count

Brian January 29th, 2021 at 12:30 PM

About last niiiiiiiight. Lights out for MSU:

The Spartans lost 67-37 to Rutgers last night, putting up their worst points per possession in the Kenpom era. Notable statistics:

  • With more TOs than buckets, Michigan State suffered a basketball rutger against Rutgers!
  • MSU turned the ball over on 32% of their possessions!
  • Rutgers rebounded 43% of their misses!
  • Rocket Watts is shooting 29/24 in Big Ten play!
  • Rutgers had more blocked shots than FTAs allowed!
  • It was Rutgers's best defensive performance in a conference game since 1982! Their opponent in that game was St Bonaventure!
  • MSU is dead last in conference play in: 2P%, steals allowed, TO%, and offensive efficiency!
  • There are 12 Big Ten teams in the top 100 of the NET rankings. MSU is not one!
  • MSU has lost games in which their opponents shot 26%, 24%, and 13% from 3!

2021 bringing heat.

[After THE JUMP: Jeb! the AD]

Here's that logistical nightmare you ordered. Matt Norlander has a piece on the NCAA's plan for the tournament. It is going to be a tall order, to say the least. This is just a small component of the whole:

• From the NCAA's protocols document: "Each travel party will be assigned 34 rooms on an entire floor within the hotel. Individuals will be assigned their own room and will not be allowed to share rooms."
• Officials will also have a hotel to themselves. In a normal NCAA Tournament there are 100 officials assigned to 67 games. This year that number will dwindle to 60.
• All Tier 1 personnel connected to the NCAA Tournament will wear Kinexon tracking equipment to gather data that will inform contact-tracing protocols. This will be crucial when COVID-19 positives surface after Selection Sunday. More nuanced details about how this will work will be decided in the coming weeks.

I'm still baffled that the NCAA is looking at a March tournament when April looks like the inflection point where you could justify vaccinating some basketball players for entertainment's sake. There is a strong possibility the whole thing gets derailed, which would surely be more costly than having the NCAA tournament—which will dominate any sports programming opposite it—at a slightly weird time. It's not like anything important happens in May anyway.

Higher releases lead to less effective contests. There are some folks responding to this graph with objections but I think it's probably a real finding:

Lot of noise in there that may be randomness or indicate that deviating from the trend is a real skill.

A few years ago there was a study about NBA closeouts that found that there wasn't a distinct gap between "this is a closeout" and "this is not a closeout" but a fairly linear relation between distance from defender and eFG:

As the paper authors put it it, "it is not simply a matter of a shot being “contested” or not but ... there is significant marginal value in every foot of space between the shooter and the closest defender." I wouldn't necessarily have expected that.

I think this may be a factor in Franz Wagner's middling three point shooting, as he has more of a set shot than a Duncan-Robinson-esque shot from the top of his jump. I think I'm resigned to his ceiling from behind the arc topping out in the 34-35% range.

A lego creation. This is quite a project:

image

That is a 30,000+ piece lego recreation of the Diag from Adam Mael, who you might remember as @BakersAndBest on twitter.

Tennessee: projected to remain Tennessee. New UT athletic director is going the Champions of Life route:

Please clap. Meanwhile White hired Josh Heupel, whose resume is three years of UCF declining. White was hired away from… UCF.

Shots fired! Good God man.

panic (from Big Jon)

Ambry and Nico. Michigan's two opt-outs have a hugely important Senior Bowl coming up and have been performing in practices. Austin Meek and Nick Baumgardner have an in-depth discussion on both. On Collins:

Baumgardner: One thing Collins has to prove during the draft process — and that’ll continue once he gets to the league — is his ability to create separation underneath. That’s something he’s had issues with this week, depending on the corner he’s working against. Can you find room on intermediate routes and prove to teams that you can be more than a deep threat?

Deep threats are great. But one reason Collins is such an interesting prospect is how close he is to having it all. When he lines up against someone who can hang with him physically at the line of scrimmage, he has to really focus on his technique and make sure there is no wasted movement as he gets into his route. Because as you see here: If he separates over the top, you’re in real trouble.

On Thomas:

He’s physical enough to bang with a receiver like Surratt in tight spaces. He’s fast enough to not lose ground. But as you said: He’s got to be better about not only locating this ball faster, but also making sure his body is under control while he’s doing it. Thomas found the ball a bit late. But he still found it. His hand gets into the receiver’s chest, but he’s still in a good position without it. It’s not necessary and it really doesn’t “interfere” with the receiver’s ability to catch the ball — my opinion. But, it’s going to get called down the sideline like that in front of an official. That’s the piece about the NFL that Michigan corners who played in Don Brown’s system have to make sure they’re careful with. You cannot grab in the league. They’re going to call it. Even when they don’t need to.

I expected no less. No more? We're two months from the NCAA hockey tourney—another thing that should be delayed a month—and there has still been no indication how the hell this is going to work:

"I was on an American Hockey Coaches Association call yesterday and there was some discussion but there was no certainty on that topic from the NCAA," Berry said. "There was supposed to be somebody from the NCAA on the call but they weren't, so obviously we didn't get any clarity on that side of it.

The one thing they're dead-set on? Keeping the regionals in the same places they currently are. Because of course.

Etc.: The soccer ball that went to space on its second try. Bizarre USMNT twitter catfishing thing. D1Baseball previews the Big Ten($). Eric Bieniemy didn't get hired again.

Comments

AC1997

January 29th, 2021 at 1:11 PM ^

I enjoy seeing MSU struggle in basketball more than I probably should.  But I'm tempering my dancing on their grave because they've been so good for so long and we're in the midst of the opposite situation in football.  

What does interest me, however, is trying to understand why they are historically bad right now.  Their roster has a collection of good players on it.  I know that Duke, UNC, and UK are going through something similar....but it surprises me that MSU hasn't figured out how to do something well this season - like defense or rebounding even.  

In some ways this mirrors our problems with football - having a collection of good players can't overcome some massive issues with roster construction.  Henry is a good player....he can't carry a team.  Watts has some talent....he can't be your best player.  Having neither a true PG to initiate the offense or a true big to play through the post (which Izzo used to prefer) means that all of the talented wings aren't enough.  

Watching MSU (among others) struggle so much is a reason why we REALLY need to find a veteran guard next year to stabilize the backcourt that will be full of youth. 

Sambojangles

January 29th, 2021 at 1:41 PM ^

I suppose the question is then, how did they end up in that situation? Much like with our football program, MSU basketball has all the advantages you need to be a top program in the B1G, and easy tournament team. The have always recruited well enough and should be able to have a point guard, legit bigs, and players who can shoot. So the fact that they don't is shocking.

Maybe the COVID season is just weird after all, and missing the practices and going through all the extra work that is required this season is harder than we thought, and hits some programs harder than others, for various reasons. Also, remember that MSU just came off a 2 week pause, maybe we shouldn't read too much into a 30 point loss on the road, they were clearly set up to fail in this game.

Michigan4Life

January 29th, 2021 at 2:23 PM ^

Izzo recruited the wrong type of players at PG and C. Loyer ain't it. Hoggard is meh at best. I can see why Izzo went after Bingham bc he's athletic and can block shots but he hasn't filled out his frame and that's after 3 years into the program. Sissoko is a true freshman and isn't ready for primetime. Kithier isn't P5 worthy and is a body on the floor.

They really missed Winston carrying the load and Tillman being great on defense with his athleticism yet have the strength to bang with the bigs.

Jaden Akins would rectify the PG issue. I liked him bc he has potential to be a good one. He is athletic, can create his own shots and can pass. As for the bigs, Izzo better hope that Sissoko can develop. Bingham is who he is at this point.

AC1997

January 29th, 2021 at 2:47 PM ^

I think you're generally correct about PG.  I don't think Izzo ever thought Loyer was going to be a primary PG for him and I also think he expected Watts to be able to play some PG too.  The Watts fall back to earth is really the issue.  Frankly, it isn't much different than the situation Michigan found itself in with DDJ/Brooks/Jackson hypothetically competing this year and none of them being ideally suited for the primary role.  Smith saved us big time there.  

I disagree a little at center.  Cissoko was #39 (ahead of Dickinson).  Hauser should have been playing some small-ball center from day-1.  Marble was a project, but exists and was Brendon Quinn's pre-season pick to break out at center from what MSU was telling him.  Bingham was #66 and there are plenty of skinny centers having success.  Kithier for all of his Austin-Davis-like traits as a try-hard program guy was #161 as a recruit.  That's five guys who should be able to generate a rotation of 3 guys and instead are all rotating and playing poorly.

As for next year, I like Akins and think he's going to be a good player. But I'm pretty sure he's more of a combo guard than a pure PG.  They have too many combo guards already.  I think they need to have Hoggard, Watts, and Akins go to PG camp together in the offseason where they all learn to be facilitators.   

Michigan4Life

January 29th, 2021 at 3:22 PM ^

That's why I said Izzo better hope that Sissoko can develop because he's JAG at this point. The silver lining is he's only a true freshman so he can get better. The big problem is pretty much everyone is playing poorly and the PG issue exacerbated the rest of the issues.

I do agree with you that Mike Smith saved Michigan with the PG issue and I hope he would use that extra year to stay on to groom Zeb and Frankie. I wouldn't blame him if he wants to play oversea professional basketball.

MH20

January 29th, 2021 at 3:55 PM ^

I don't understand this take. Zeb Jackson is a true freshman who hardly played as a senior in HS because IMG was crazy stacked. Frankie Collins is still in high school. You're saying that at any point in their college careers they won't be viable starting PG options? Please explain your reasoning.

Richard75

January 29th, 2021 at 4:57 PM ^

Regarding Loyer: I do think he was supposed to be the primary PG. He verbally committed back in fall 2016. They didn't take a guard in 2017; he was the only PG in their 2018 class, and Watts was the only guard they took in 2019.

Maybe by 2019 they thought Watts had them covered if need be. But at the very least, taking only one plausible PG over a two-year span (three years if you don't count Watts) means you intend for that guy to run the show.

Michigan4Life

January 29th, 2021 at 5:28 PM ^

That seems very strange that Izzo didn't continue to recruit a PG and he should've known when he saw him on campus practicing and playing games that he isn't a viable P5 PG. He's too small and not athletic enough to see time on the court. If you're going to be small, you better be athletic to make up for it and Loyer ain't one.

WormWould

January 30th, 2021 at 8:13 AM ^

Either Mikey or Eli could return next season. Both of which would be a boon to the team. Hard to say which would be the most beneficial, but I would suspect that Mikey would be the priority. Though Eli is our best on-ball defender, Mikey is our best true point, and has proven to be suprisingly solid on D. Keeping him at the 1, with Frankie spelling him, and having a year to step into the starting role would make for a pretty smooth transition.

My Name is LEGIONS

January 29th, 2021 at 2:08 PM ^

I believe that Izzo was insecure about Howard...ever since we beat them last year theyve faded.  And he knows what he's up against and knows it is futile, and this is influencing the team.   The end is near for them and their program. Thanks Juwan !

JR3410

January 29th, 2021 at 2:26 PM ^

Myles Johnson is a good shot blocker and rim protector.  That about sums up his game.  He is not a very skilled player.  If he is having a monster game against you, your post plays sucks.  Hunter Dickinson is going to cause a lot of problems for Michigan State, and I can't wait to see it.

Shop Smart Sho…

January 29th, 2021 at 2:29 PM ^

May in Indianapolis hosting the entire tournament and the 500 would be interesting. Especially because I can't see Penske not forcing the issue and ensuring he gets at least 50% capacity since his first race in charge was such a bust.

Needs

January 29th, 2021 at 4:54 PM ^

#30 for state is moving laterally in an effort to chase the rebound and doesn't have position, so it's not over the back. #15 does move him a bit with the elbow, but it's a contested rebound, the contact isn't particularly forceful. It would be a pretty soft call, especially because the State player is not going hard after the ball.

Bakers and Best

January 29th, 2021 at 3:06 PM ^

Thanks for sharing the Diag Lego project! Proud to have been recognized on here for my main hobbies of the last decade, playing with Lego and photoshopping bread into Michigan athletics photos.

Bakers and Best

January 29th, 2021 at 6:31 PM ^

Yeah Lego can be a very expensive hobby. I would guess it’s about $2,500 in value of the pieces. Maybe slightly higher but probably somewhere around 8 cents a piece on average. 

As for what I spent, I’d guess less but still probably around $2,000 over the course of three years. A significant number of the basic bricks I already had, but obviously those had to have been purchased from somewhere (a lot of bulk lots from Goodwill mostly). In the last year I placed a lot of orders on BrickLink, especially for the pieces used in the landscaping.