Hello, fan of an NFL team. MGoBlog excruciatingly scouts every Michigan play, and scores them to inform our coverage. Since mi atleta es su atleta now, here we share what we're sharing.

QUICKLY: Bear-strong, non-fat, no frills nose tackle.

DRAFT PROJECTION: Late 1st to 2nd Round.

NFL COMP: Haloti Ngata. Huge, strong, freakishly athletic doubles-eater who could get low, and created a lot more sacks than he collected early in his career, but developed as a pass-rusher as he went along.

WHAT'S HIS STORY? Poke a Michigan fan in 2018-'20 and you'd get a lecture on (the history of Western warfare and) defensive tackle recruiting. Mo Hurst graduated after 2017, they recruited a couple of guys for 2019, and we sat around wringing our hands for a few years asking when the couple of the guys from 2019 would be ready. Mazi Smith was the lower ranked, and the one expected to be further from the field because he needed to slim down before building back up. The recruiting profile was essentially "Is Bear." Since the players on the field were getting clubbed with Duo, we got in this cycle through the curtailed 2020 season where we'd ask "Where Bear?" and the program would put fellow 2019 recruit Chris Hinton out there to demonstrate why young DTs shouldn't be playing. Insiders hinted the issue was conditioning.

Bear arrived in early 2021, and WMU promptly hit him with a slip screen that involved a ton of running afterwards. To our amazement, Smith stayed on the field. To our greater amazement, Washington decided to play into our slow and methodical hands, and were eaten alive. By a good measure, Mazi was the better of the 2019 pair; we were shocked when Hinton (undrafted) was the first to go pro.

Various strategies were tried to defeat this. Nebraska gave single-blocking him a shot. Iowa and Ohio State tried stretch zones. Rutgers had a good plan built around Belly and Bash to grind Bear down, but nobody else (with a prayer of an OL) had the running QB to do that.

The big question for 2022 was can Mazi have a Suh senior year? He was #1 on Bruce Feldman's freaks list because the strength and athleticism in a 340-pound dude is unreal. With Aidan Hutchinson and David Ojabo off to the pros, Michigan needed pass rush in the worst way. They didn't get it. Smith could get push, but usually he hung out at the line of scrimmage. He also let scrambles get past him. One of the enduring nightmares of the Fiesta Bowl was Smith turning down a free run at Max Duggan, then falling down and allowing an uncanny 3rd down conversion. Balanced against Smith's constant doubles-eating, around which the rest of the defensive structure relied, this only made him a star instead of a superstar. Michigan played with safeties back and clean linebackers, and his teammates routinely reminded the fans why that could be. Occasionally we'd come across a bad offensive line—CSU, UConn, Maryland, Indiana, MSU—and the fans wouldn't need a reminder. Both years The Big Ten Championship Game was decided in the first defensive series, when Smith announced there would be no running on Michigan today.

Deeper into the season though Smith started to look like he was wearing down; and teams that can run tempo especially were able to get movement. Extended drives cascaded into redzone shoving matches that Michigan fans, so used to the Good Bear, were unprepared to go against us. This can be overstated—Smith would also proverbially *Summon It*—many a 1st & Goal at the six resolved into tough 4th down decisions. It's not a "motor" thing. It's a 340-pound human seeing 30 double-teams a game thing.

POSITIVES: Freakishly strong, freakishly athletic, fantastic teammate, and warrior poet. Dominates single-blocking, flipping sides quickly enough to be trusted to two-gap. Insanely strong punch and low center of gravity allow him to routinely defeat doubles and clog up the LOS. Excellent push-pull technique, doesn't get locked onto blockers. Can drop into coverage—M loved to use him to take away mesh on 3rd downs.

NEGATIVES: Two things: Gets worn down, and Pass-rushing is way worse than it should be for his quick feet. Comes in from twists out of control to open scramble lanes, tends to panic when he's got a QB in his crosshairs, leading to bad results from sack-worthy rushes. Mostly stayed at the LOS as teammates rushed, but not agile enough to spy.

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WHAT OTHERS SAY:

The consensus here seems to be that Smith is far from a perfect prospect because of the two clear negatives outlined above, but he's one with very high upside who should thrive in the (relatively) low-tempo/high-rotation NFL, be a locker room plus, and most of all fill the extremely important role of run-pluggin' nose.

The Draft Network's Damian Parson gave Smith a 75 grade (the only one to put Mazi below DJ Turner), and started with all the greatest hits…

Smith is a heavy-handed puncher who can generate substantial knock-back power in the run game. He displays the ability to drive blockers into the backfield and create interior penetration. Smith is disruptive on downhill run attempts due to his ability to occupy multiple lanes and gaps. Michigan asks him to handle those two-gap assignments and potential double teams in the run game. Smith’s lateral agility is impressive for his size.

…but noted Mazi doesn't fire quickly enough off the snap (timing issue not a body one) and says his arm length is a reason for concern, which is a bit weird because Smith's measurements were really good. The NFL's Lance Zierlein matched my list of positives, but I'm pretty sure he caught a specific sample of 2022 film that gave him a false impression that Smith can't hang with stretch zone teams:

Smith’s blend of size and quickness is rare. He can punch and control a base block with relative ease. However, he struggles to match the initial movement of move blockers, which diminishes his effectiveness. He has space-eating potential but needs to become more consistent at taking on double teams and securing his gap. Smith’s size and testing could give his draft slotting some juice but he’s more of a Day 2 talent with exciting upside than a plug-and-play starter.

Tell me you saw the Iowa, OSU, and TCU games without telling me you saw just those three games. Zierlein lists as weaknesses the lack of plays behind the LOS, the running out of gas, three more things that were running out of gas, and another thing that was not making plays behind the line of scrimmage. Also…

Weaknesses

• Struggled against Iowa’s zone scheme attack.

In 2022 as Iowa kept him on the field, yeah. I'd really like to know what he'd say if he saw Mazi's 2021 OSU and Iowa performances. Walter Football's Charlie Campbell shared the Dontari Poe comparison (I don't like it) but also ran away from it by specifying the pass-rushing thing is specifically about finishing. DraftKings also noticed the pass-rushing.

If you’re looking for cons, it’s just like many other defensive tackles at his size. He is unlikely to be relied upon during obvious passing-down situations with limitations as a pass rusher.

Ian Cummings of Pro Football Network is high on Smith because he sees someone who can develop as a pass-rusher while bringing the nose tacklin' that teams crave immediately.

There will always be a place for edge defenders in the NFL, but the nose tackle is an even more elusive and niche player type. And when you can find a nose tackle with independent pass-rushing upside, you don’t shy away from that player. Smith has that kind of potential.

… massive, naturally well-leveraged frame. With his size, he can shrug off chip blocks and absorb double-teams. He also has exceptional proportional length and a wide span that helps him engulf blockers. … All the numbers say Smith is a rare physical specimen, and the tape corroborates that belief. Smith flashes a quick first step as a pass rusher, and he has great explosive capacity off the line. He channels good foot speed into contact, and he uses this foot speed to accelerate quickly off the line and supplement lateral moves. Furthermore, Smith has good long-track explosiveness heading into contact on surefire passing downs, and he can accelerate quickly into gaps after stunting to find space.

…and he found The Bear.

Smith has a powerful build and great raw power that comes with his frame. The Michigan DT can quickly generate power after displacing blockers, using leg drive to shove blockers back into the pocket. He’s shown he can knock back blockers with full extensions, and he carries great force into contact with his mass and burst. With his high-level raw power, Smith can plow blockers upright off the snap and break into the backfield. He also showcases the necessary rotational strength and upper-body torque to throw blockers aside when properly leveraged.

But far and away, his best trait is his functional strength. Smith has elite raw strength, controlling gaps easily with properly applied strength. He has the strength to long-arm guards and prevent displacement while clogging lanes. Additionally, with his strength, Smith can quickly rip down anchors while running with blocks and deconstruct before entering pursuit mode.

He also references The Freaks List, of course.

The 6-foot-3, 337-pound senior has rare power and agility. So rare, in fact, it’s hard to find the right superlative to begin with. But let’s start with this: Smith does 22 reps on the bench press, but that’s with 325 (not 225). He close-grip benched 550 pounds. He vertical-jumps 33 inches. He broad-jumped 9-4 1/2. Smith, who had 37 tackles last season, has clocked a 4.41 shuttle time, which would’ve tied the best by any defensive tackle at this year’s NFL Scouting Combine, and it would’ve been better than any defensive tackle weighing 310 pounds or more in the past decade. His 6.95 3-cone time would’ve been by far the fastest among defensive tackles in Indianapolis. The fastest was 7.33. Smith’s 60-yard shuttle time is 11.90.

You should know that Michigan cultivates Bruce Feldman a bit—there's a reason the Michigan guys on his list come with internal practice videos of eye-popping feats. Dane Brugler of The Athletic usually has a good handle on teams' thoughts that he phrases as draft needs, and pegs Smith for the bottom of the 1st round as the Saints look to plug their interior run defense. Mel Kiper also has Mazi going to the Saints.

Smith is getting some first-round buzz because he's the best run-stuffer in this class. At 6-foot-3, 323 pounds, he can plug a hole. Teams don't always prefer tackles with limited pass-rushing upside, but he'd fill a need in New Orleans. I moved Smith to No. 30 overall on my Big Board.

OUR SCHEME/BEST SCHEME: Michigan's front, whether in the nickel they used as a base against spread teams, or the 5-2 they went to when opponents presented multiple tight ends, was all about forcing you back into the bear. You're probably familiar with Aidan Hutchinson—we had another even heavier guy playing outside the tackles last year and I do mean outside of the tackles. Zones get condensed against those walls and power running is just asking to get your puller knocked back into the lane. Your only way out is behind the double on Mazi Smith and his fellow two or three(!) DTs, with Smith in the middle, thus involved regardless. Irresponsible linebacker play was an issue throughout the season, but part of that was because Smith was free to pick a different side of his blocks if he saw a better opportunity, and it was up to the LBs to make him right. Whenever college people talk about that front they call it "NFL" or "Pro" while Michigan calls it "Multiple."

Behind Smith, we do a lot of Ravens—Mike Macdonald was literally the guy who installed it in his one year before becoming the Baltimore DC. That means zone blitzes, stunts, and the LB/DT relationship I described above. Tactically, Mac's successor Jesse Minter turned up the blitzing to try to get his starters off the field. The defense was most vulnerable when a tempo team got the DTs locked on the field for 10+ plays, because that whole "Go see the meat grinder" approach loses its efficacy if you can't keep it sharp.

None of this is going to be news for nose tacklin' in the NFL. The Vince Wilfork era is over, but if you want that go get Wisconsin's Keeanu Benton, wind the clock back to 1992, and have fun with that. He doesn't have the linebacker speed of Jalen Carter, but Smith is pretty much your modern NFL nose: biglargehuge and athletic, needs to rotate, and is better at making quarterbacks nervous than dead. In other words: Pro.

GRADING

Our grading system captures a lot of line play and wants a DT to be grading out significantly in the positive, so a zero isn't average. Figure a point either way is worth five yards on 1st and 10, so like a stuff at the LOS would be a +2, occupying a double-team while getting moved back just a yard is +0.5, and getting out of your lane to allow a 3rd and long scramble for the 1st down is a –3.

Also note there aren't many pass-rushing negatives, which only get applied to players (versus counted as a team metric) when they're stoned on 1-on-1 rushes. That's partly how we grade but also mostly an effect of Smith being the guy occupying a guard and center on the line of scrimmage while his teammates head upfield. 

By Play Type:

The above is what you want to see from a nose tackle in our grading. Smith's job against the run was to eat a double-team, and when he kept that double at the line of scrimmage he earned a point. He was excellent at staying off those blocks and working his way to the ball. The word "maul" appears

By Game:

Note how teams tried different strategies and none really worked. Smith never had a negative day once he became the starter. Terrible offensive lines (MSU, IU, Purdue, UConn, CSU) just got chewed to bits. I noted that Illinois was able to pile up -0.5s on him that other teams never could—Brett Bielema's Illini have a weird OL built of run blockers who can't pass protect for shit. The more worrisome performances were the times Smith was getting worn down.

Also note that Smith turned it up as a pass-rusher against Ohio State both times. The potential is there—but even the best motor can't run that hot forever, especially when it's carrying a whole Mazi Smith around.

VIDEO OF ALL VARIETIES: (Collection)

Doubles eater who eats doubles

The strength is insane:

Uses it to rip past blockers:

And to drive to the basket:

And for two-gapping:

And escorting people backwards:

We told you about the agility but you should see it with his swim move:

And when they try to stretch him:

The system is all about forcing you back into Smith's kitchen. It's okay if you don't wanna go.

PAAAAD LEVEELLLLLLL:

Impressive feet for stunting (also don't draft CJ Stroud):

Good awareness vs screens:

Can drop into coverage:

Can Summon It.

Not a good finisher when he gets into the backfield:

Not a good support rusher either.SUMMARY AND PROJECTION

Michigan went into the 2022 season believing Mazi Smith was their best defensive player, and needed to be for them to have a shot at returning to the Playoff. He was their best defensive player, and they returned to the Playoff. If he'd been as good against TCU they'd have gone a step further, but the issues against TCU (that still couldn't offset his positive impact) were baked in.

Smith's role was central to making Michigan a stout run defense while playing light in the box, and if he used up his energy on that instead of pass-rushing, it was a tradeoff. As a senior and captain, Smith wasn't going to let himself come off the field. As a 340-pound doubles-eater, he probably should have more often. There are a few games early in his career where we were clamoring for more Mazi, a sign of how effective he can be when they keep him relatively fresh.

Like Turner, this is another high floor with a higher ceiling. Because that's even harder to come by at DT than at cornerback, Smith has a chance of going in the 1st round. Every NFL team could use him as depth at nose, and he'd start for half of them as a two-down guy right now.

That third down has potential too—it may well be he was just too gassed by the time he was breaking into the backfield to be chasing little quarterbacks around on top of it. Like any DT his size, you can't get more than two-thirds of a game out of him without sacrificing effectiveness, and Michigan just lived with it. Fortunately for him and what should be an excellent NFL career, that's not how they do it in the pros.

A MOMENT OF ZEN