Previously: Part One, Part Two

It's time to look into the distant future: April of this calendar year and beyond.

Running It Back, Part One

What would it take to keep top performing draft eligible underclassman on the roster next year? Is that just being greedy or are there good reasons for guys like Dickinson and Wagner to stick around another year or two?

— Jacob (@brusualsuspects) February 3, 2021

The selling point for Franz Wagner will have to be the opportunity to win a championship in college while he's still relatively young for an NBA prospect. He's shown more than enough this season for a team in the 12-25 range of the first round to pick him as a wing who should stick in the league a long time because of his offensive skill and defensive versatility. This was ESPN's Jonathan Givony on Wagner's prospects early last month:

A deep NCAA tournament run could easily solidify Wagner as a first-round pick, although it wouldn't be shocking if he decided to run it back for his junior year at Michigan (like his brother did) since he's younger than many freshmen such as Jalen Suggs and Evan Mobley. Michigan is slated to enroll the No. 1 recruiting class in college basketball, and could be viewed as early favorites for the national championship if Wagner (and Dickinson) return to the fold.

He was 30th on their board at that point. He's already moved up to 20th in the mock draft ESPN released last week. The Athletic's Sam Vecenie had Wagner at #36 in his mock draft last month; on his Game Theory podcast a couple weeks ago, Wagner had shot into the lottery. Yes, it'd help his stock to hit more three-pointers, but probably not enough for him to need to head back to school; his excellent marksmanship at the free throw line alleviates a lot of those concerns for NBA scouts.

That said, Wagner isn't a surefire top ten pick or anything, and his relative youth plays to M's advantage—he's not at risk of entering the league in his mid-20s. He fits a coveted role as the rare big wing who should be a plus on both offense and defense, so his stock can only drop so far barring the unexpected, and he can raise his profile by becoming a more consistent outside shooter. I could see Wagner's choice going either way, though I'm increasingly preparing myself for a departure this offseason.

Dickinson should be an easier sell. The value of a traditional center has plummeted in recent years; unless a big man projects as a dominant, switchable defender or a three-point threat, they're unlikely to go in the first round, as teams know they can find solid bigs—even young ones—on the free agent and trade market for relatively cheap.

Dickinson is projected in the early-to-mid second round at the highest and isn't on ESPN latest mock. While he transformed his body before getting to Michigan, he's still relatively paint-bound. Since his foot speed can only improve so much, developing an outside shot—even if it's rudimentary—would go a long way towards getting him late first-round looks. There's also the appeal of working directly with Juwan Howard for another year.

I'm almost always of the mind that players should jump to the NBA as soon as it's plausible if they're looking to operate purely out of self-interest; Dickinson might be an exception, and without any inside info I'd lean towards him being back next season.

[Hit THE JUMP for potential senior returns, four-year recruits, and what M should do with Juwan Howard's contract.]

Running It Back, Part Two

any double seniors pictured here? [Campredon]

Is it likely that either Brooks or Smith return next season? Which would you prefer and why? I'd assume Mikey, as Frankie would be our only true point otherwise, and that'd be a big ask for a freshman.

— Andrew Isom (@ajisom) February 3, 2021

I'm guessing a certain amount of each decision depends on how this season finishes out. A great end to a senior year makes it a lot easier to move on, whether these guys want to start playing careers overseas, coaching careers stateside, or life outside of basketball. If we get something resembling last year's sudden cancelation of the season (which thankfully seems unlikely), or an early flameout in the NCAA Tournament, there could be an increased desire to run it back one more time.

I wouldn't say Michigan is bereft at the point even if both seniors depart, though. Frankie Collins is an excellent prospect and I'm very far from ruling out Zeb Jackson as a potential lead guard. Meanwhile, much like Howard patched the point guard hole with Smith before this season, he could do the same with an immediately eligible transfer this coming offseason. There are always mid-major guards like Smith looking to up-transfer and prove they can play at the highest level of college ball, and Howard will be able to point at Smith's success—and the team's—as convincing reasons to come to Ann Arbor.

While I generally prefer to let the natural cycle of college hoops play itself out and hand the reins to young players, my preference is Michigan have a senior lead guard on the roster next season, whether it's one of Smith/Brooks using their free year of eligibility or the team taking a grad transfer as a replacement. Those guys aren't guaranteed to work out as well as Smith—Jaaron Simmons stands out as a recent example—so it's not an automatic fix, but even if it's just a 7th/8th-man type, that can be quite valuable. We've had some glimpses at life without a reliable backup point guard and it's not a fun way to live.

Recruiting The Long Game

Hi Ace,

Who do you see among Juwan’s recruits as having the type of Livers-style upside of being a player who can both draw NBA interest but also contribute at the college level for 4 years? It’s admittedly hard to predict given that guys can desire a paycheck, develop too slow, develop too fast, or transfer before their 4 years are done.

Thanks,
Andrew

Howard has done a great job of mixing potential one-and-done five-stars with four-stars who could stick in the program while still having NBA upside. Collins is a good example as a point guard who doesn't have prototypical size at 6'0-ish and isn't a knockdown shooter yet; he's going to have to develop over a protracted period of time before the NBA gives a serious look. Isaiah Barnes stands outside the top 100 but has the frame and upside to be an NBA wing down the line.

I also love the potential two-and-done types; Wagner and Dickinson fall under this category, Caleb Houstan might end up there, and it's how Matt sees Kobe Bufkin. Those are often the players who end up driving title-caliber teams—think Trey Burke and Nik Stauskas.

Coach For Life

seeing a lot of room to move up the list of top-paid coaches [Campredon]

When it is time to rip up Juwan Howard's contract and throw more money at him? Should he be the highest-paid coach in the conference?

— Matt Mossman (@mamossman) February 3, 2021

The short answer is JUMPING UP AND DOWN SCREAMING YES YES A THOUSAND TIMES YES JUST LOOK AT THIS:

The longer answer is that Michigan has an opportunity that's not going to come around again and they need to capitalize on it. How often does a former NBA All-Star who was an All-American for your team before becoming one of the top assistant coaches in the NBA fall into your lap and immediately show high-level schematic chops while landing top-five recruiting classes? Never, usually. Maybe once in a lifetime. This is that once, and this is how you get a coach who becomes an institution.

When the time is right, which should be shortly after this remarkably successful season, Michigan should be falling all over themselves to give Howard whatever he wants to stay for as long as he desires, which is hopefully forever. I hear the athletic department freed up some money from the football budget lately?