Michigan 86, LSU 78
I had an entire post written about how Michigan blew up the early narrative of this game, which was LSU's incredible shot-making being too much to overcome for a Wolverines team missing their most reliable bucket-getter. When I went to hit submit, my still-shaking hands hit the wrong button, and I blew up my own post. This feels apropos.
So let's do the short version because my brain is still going AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH after one of the more fun, and therefore partisan nerve-destroying, games of the entire tournament. For most of the first half and a decent chunk of the second, it appeared that Cam Thomas and Javonte Smart would hit pullup jumper after pullup jumper, no matter how difficult, and LSU would do just enough on defense to pull off the upset.
Michigan refused to allow that to happen, grinding away a nine-point first-half deficit at the line after LSU's seventh foul to take an improbable 43-42 halftime lead. After Thomas opened 6/7 from the field, he closed 4/16 as Juwan Howard unleashed Chaundee Brown on him. Brown added a season-high 21 points, 14 after the break, to tie for the team lead with an inspired Eli Brooks, who drained 5/9 three-pointers.
Franz Wagner put the game out of reach at the end, hitting a hook, resetting for a three-pointer, dunking off a Hunter Dickinson outlet pass to break a press, putting back a Dickinson miss in traffic, and smothering a Thomas drive on the final Tigers possession with a sliver of hope. Nine of Wagner's 15 points came after halftime. Hunter Dickinson, who battled foul trouble in a poorly officiated game on both sides, managed an efficient 12-point, 11-board double-double in 31 minutes and did his usual bending of LSU's defense to open up the perimeter.
My narrative didn't survive the publishing process, which is how I refer to misclicks. Thankfully, Michigan's basketball team is much less shaky in the clutch. The Wolverines move on to their fourth Sweet Sixteen in a row and sixth in the last eight NCAA Tournaments. They'll face Florida State, convincing winners over Colorado this evening. Enjoy it as best as your nerves allow and be careful operating machinery.
[Hit THE JUMP for the box score.]
March 22nd, 2021 at 10:56 PM ^
I'm rewatching the game now and the thing I noticed is that both Thomas and Smart chirp a lot for two really inefficient guys. Like, I know we're all about hitting "NBA shots" but when you take 30 of them to get your 30 points and don't record an assist, that's not going to fly in the NBA and shows some piss-poor coaching. They both sort of looked like two guys playing for paychecks.
Anyway, fantastic win by the team and FSU is next. FSU is tough but they feel beatable; I wouldn't consider them any better than LSU, just different.
March 22nd, 2021 at 11:08 PM ^
Thomas certainly didn't look inefficient at the start of the game but youre right LSU sure as hell fit the bill of a few elite scorers instead of a team.
March 22nd, 2021 at 11:18 PM ^
Yeah, he looked amazing in the beginning but those weren't super-efficient shots and, as we saw, he trailed off as the defense stiffened and the percentages came down.
March 23rd, 2021 at 10:09 AM ^
Well, and when your offense is predicated on one-on-one hoists of contested shots---and then your coach plays you 40 minutes after playing you ~38 in round one, and your legs go---that's easy to shut off.
March 22nd, 2021 at 11:09 PM ^
They ARE playing for paychecks ... currently.
March 22nd, 2021 at 11:33 PM ^
exactly, per their coach, they pay better than the G league
Smart is extremely efficient in general. Thomas is extremely efficient for the types of shots he takes.
...but when you take 30 of them to get your 30 points and don't record an assist, that's not going to fly in the NBA...
Russell Westbrook says hi. His entire career is chirping, taking 30 shots a game and losing.
Westbrook is 13th on the list in the nba for career assists.
March 23rd, 2021 at 10:32 AM ^
They both sort of looked like two guys playing for paychecks
Yep, playing for their next Will Wade money bag
March 22nd, 2021 at 10:56 PM ^
If you had told me we would lose the TO stat badly, lose in blocks, lose in steals, and offensive rebounds... I would have thought, well it was a great season while it lasted.
March 22nd, 2021 at 10:56 PM ^
I think this is the game where we figured out who we are without Livers.
March 22nd, 2021 at 10:58 PM ^
Great game and FSU will be super tough. Alabama is really good. If Michigan makes it through this regional then Gonzaga has played NOBODY in their regional.
March 22nd, 2021 at 11:09 PM ^
If we are fortunate enough to make it that far (I have significant doubts) I'll be terrified of them when we get there, but I'm trying not to be hyperbolic here: Gonzaga is really good, but I feel like the matchup they present, the way they play, is a better fit for us than FSU, LSU, or (to some extent) Bama.
March 22nd, 2021 at 11:47 PM ^
I'm curious what you see there in the match up. I haven't watched any Gonzaga. The only times I had to do so during the season, they were playing somebody pointless so I didn't bother. TIA.
March 23rd, 2021 at 12:13 AM ^
I’m far from an expert, but I watched them a bit when it became clear we were challenging for that tier, and have a “I read it on the internet” idea of how they work. Take it for what little it’s worth.
They shoot the three very well, of course. But I have hopes our 3 defense can work against them. They aren’t the physical matchup nightmare in the backcourt. They’ve got killers in guys like Kispert and Suggs and they move the ball exceptionally well... but they are the kind of strengths that I feel our assets can mitigate. Ball movement, meet Franz. Eli can frustrate his guy enough. Stuff like that.
And, crucially, they have an elite big in Drew Timme... that I really think Hunter can neutralize and even outplay (I was more confident in this three weeks ago). Timme hasn’t had to face a lot of elite big defense. And Hunter can defend anyone. He has faced up all comers.
March 23rd, 2021 at 12:41 AM ^
Thanks. Makes some sense. I really hope the matchup happens. Can you just imagine if this UM team could meet and take these guys out? It's got a 1989 UM/Illinois vibe. NO ONE would think it's possible. I watched that '89 game on a tiny little TV in a TDU while I was in the Navy. Everyone was for Illinois. Was one of the greatest times of my life.
I passively watched a couple of Gonzaga's games this season, but not closely enough to get a sense of their style of play. All I saw is that their opponent would be hanging close for the first few minutes of the game, I would check my phone for a bit, and then I would look up and Gonzaga would be suddenly be up by 20. They are scary.
March 22nd, 2021 at 10:59 PM ^
One team was getting good looks and assists most times down the court, the other team was playing hero ball. At times it looked hero ball was going win out, but generating open/good looks won out in the end.
March 22nd, 2021 at 11:08 PM ^
Box score checks out:
LSU: 8 assists on 27 made FGs
UM: 22 assists on 28 made FGs
March 22nd, 2021 at 11:30 PM ^
That's the thing about basketball; you can play great defense and force your opponent to take tough, hero ball shots... and if they make those shots, you can still lose.
March 22nd, 2021 at 11:39 PM ^
You can sure, but more often than not good looks will win out if it is a good team getting them.
March 22nd, 2021 at 10:59 PM ^
Good. I wasn't alone. Damn that was a stressful game. Just one I'd like to have an important game not involve a team -- or at least one of its players -- shooting the lights out against us. Maryland. Rocket Watts. Duane Washington Jr. Now these guys. My heartbeat *still* hasn't gone back to normal. Thank you, Eli and Chaundee, for having nerves of fucking steel. I sure didn't.
March 22nd, 2021 at 11:02 PM ^
The Game Preview on this site had me well prepared to see LSU's defensive rebounding to be equivalent to a SWAC-level team. The Game Preview on this site DID NOT prepare me to see LSU's uniform quality to also be SWAC-level. :vomitemoji:
March 22nd, 2021 at 11:05 PM ^
Definitely some times we miss Isaiah. Going to be hard to go all the way without him.
And there were times the offense scuffled, especially early.
But what a huge win. This is a 1-8 matchup that I don't care how the win happens as long as they win, and they won.
Took guts. Overcoming tough situations. Clutch offense. Getting production from unusual places. They needed all of it, they got it, and they're moving on.
Fun team to watch.
March 22nd, 2021 at 11:11 PM ^
Yeah, not only his offense, but his defense tonight was really missed. I think his length would have been a real asset on the defensive end.
And what'd you do to get the obscene point total? Did you get an annoying AD fired, too?
March 22nd, 2021 at 11:12 PM ^
Something of a glitch from a few years back, unearned.
March 22nd, 2021 at 11:24 PM ^
I always wonder if it's better to be seeded in the 2-3 range because you tend to have an easier matchup in the second and third rounds thank to upsets. If you're a #1 you know you're going to see a #8/9 team, and usually those teams are either so-so P5 teams or pretty good mid-majors. But you look at Alabama's bracket and they got a mediocre Maryland team in round 2 instead of a dangerous UConn and then will get an 11 seed UCLA. Illinois got LUC in the second round and Houston got Rutgers, then Syracuse. Whatever marginal benefit you get from playing a 16 vs a 15 in the first round doesn't seem worth it down the line. A minor thing but something I was thinking about as LSU shot 95% from contested 2s while Maryland stared blankly at the basketball for a half.
March 22nd, 2021 at 11:36 PM ^
The Buckeyes may disagree; lol.
March 23rd, 2021 at 12:49 AM ^
True. But had the Buckeyes won they would have faced a 9-7 Florida team, which feels like a better match-up than LSU this year.
March 22nd, 2021 at 11:37 PM ^
be curious what the stats would say on that point, cuz as a 1 you get a free game whereas any other seed you're going to get someone who could beat you in the first round....But yeah, obviously worst you get is a 9 seed in the second round and it's often someone decent, but I would guess that the stats would say 1 is the better spot, though how you'd control that (1's may do better, but is it just because of superior talent and they'd be better off as a 2 seed with that same talent) in analyzing the numbers for that is far beyond me
March 23rd, 2021 at 12:09 AM ^
Most 8s and 9s arent that scary to a 1 seed. But we are without one of our best players and LSU is one of those Kentucky style all talent no coaching teams that is better than their seed because they suck early in the year and scarier than their seed because the talent can just beat anyone.
March 23rd, 2021 at 12:52 AM ^
Yeah. And maybe it's just this year that seems particularly scary, as you had a handful of top-15 KenPom teams slotted in on the 8/9 line.
March 23rd, 2021 at 12:50 AM ^
I assume it's not a huge difference and if you're a top-2 seed you're likely more talented than the teams you'd wind up playing. But for whatever reason I've always wondered if it winds up mattering in the end.
March 22nd, 2021 at 11:37 PM ^
Depends on how things go. Some years it lines up for you (18 for us, for example). Some years it's a gauntlet.
This year we have the chalkiest region in the country, so it's a bit rough. But this has been one of the most upset-filled tournaments in history, so that's how it goes.
March 23rd, 2021 at 12:08 AM ^
Great points. LSU being an 8 was almost as absurd as Kentucky in 2014. They weren’t that good of course, but they looked it in the first 15 minutes.
March 23rd, 2021 at 11:39 AM ^
Interestingly the 1 seed is statistically much better. I think this largely has to do with usually having at least a few one seeds that are head and shoulders better than the field.
https://bracketodds.cs.illinois.edu/seedadv.html
March 22nd, 2021 at 11:10 PM ^
Two guys with 57 of 78 points. Those guys are so good. Have a great NBA career. Glad we got through that matchup.
March 23rd, 2021 at 12:14 AM ^
And one other had 11. So the whole rest of the team had 10 points.
March 22nd, 2021 at 11:13 PM ^
By the way props to Franz. I would like to see him a little more aggressive early but he is always there down the stretch.
Side comment-Mike Smith is taking too many shots now. He is or has been told to fill the Livers scoring hole but I would like to see him stick with his year long role
March 23rd, 2021 at 12:11 AM ^
I thought Smith passed on some good looks from 3 that I would have liked him to take. The year long role is out the window with Livers out. Need to adjust and win however you can at this point.
March 23rd, 2021 at 12:18 AM ^
His shots were off early and Brooks then Chaudee were hot. I can't criticize him for not forcing it then. But when he did start going he rode it.
March 23rd, 2021 at 12:57 AM ^
The only thing I've noticed with Smith is some of the magical pocket passes and making everyone else better haven't been there quite as much in the last three games. A couple silly turnovers and rangy guards are going to shoot over him. Otherwise, I don't have any problems with his game.
March 23rd, 2021 at 10:36 AM ^
Franz definitely wasn't mentally there for most of the game last night. He was making mental errors, was hesitant to shoot, and being passive. I think when that happens, Juwan needs to just pull him aside and tell him to drive to the hoop and be aggressive because as soon as he hit that driving hook shot / runner, that's when he came back to life. He's such a mental and emotional player that Juwan needs to activate that in a positive way
March 22nd, 2021 at 11:14 PM ^
Why wouldn’t you type up your column on word or google docs instead of directly into this site?
Especially THIS site. Goodbye. I have to go to the final comment now after hitting save.
March 22nd, 2021 at 11:14 PM ^
That's a lot of emotions in one game. So many times we'd get momentum and then LSU would hit an insane 3 pointer. Felt like my head was going to explode. 2 of Dickinson's fouls were so absurd they might as well have been called by Ted Valentine.
And Michigan gets called for a travel because the player's foot slid on the condensation on the floor that was immediately mopped up after the whistle. Of course that would happen in this game.
Outcome will make me sleep good tonight. They survived a ton of punches from both LSU's insane shooting and incompetence of the refs, never letting it get too out of hand and then coming up pretty much clutch the last several minutes...despite a few bad turnovers by Smith.
At least they missed when Chaundee put all 5 toes (and part of his arch) on the line under the basket!
I had to text my brother and ask him if this was Phil Luckett's crew doing this game. That crew, whoever it was, was not fit to ref at the high school level. They clearly wanted to make the game more about them. So many just absurd calls and calls made by officials that were well out of position to make said calls. I'm not being biased either - they were equally bad both ways.
March 22nd, 2021 at 11:18 PM ^
What a heavyweight bout. This team is just rock-solid. The season couldn't end tonight. Incredible year.
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