MGoPodcast 15.27: Your Ring Makes You Look Fat Comment Count

BlueBarron April 22nd, 2024 at 7:00 AM

2 hours and 6 minutes

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1. Spring Football Game - The Offense

Starts at 1:00

Brian has survived a science Olympiad and is ready to talk about the spring game. The number of takes we have are minimal, nobody really popped off. The offensive line wasn’t playing as a group and a couple starters didn’t play so it’s hard to project them. Kirk Campbell has said that they’re not looking for a quarterback in the portal. Alex Orji’s game would be to run a lot and he can’t do that in a spring game where you can’t tackle the quarterback. Denegal and Jadyn Davis aren’t ready for this offense, so it’ll be either Orji, Tuttle, or Warren starting. Maybe Michigan is creating a read option offense but isn’t putting it on film? Brian wants Orji to start but thinks it'll be Warren. Marlin Klein showed off a bit of what they were talking about. Gentry was either blowing a guy up or not knowing who to block so right tackle might be a problem spot. The running backs all looked great throughout the depth. All the snaps for Max Bredeson. Craig is banging the drum about Raheem Anderson. 

[The rest of the writeup and the player after THE JUMP]

2. Spring Football Game - The Defense

Starts at 36:03
Didn’t really see a defensive tackle stick out but part of that is because Wink Martendale blitzed a lot. TJ Guy might be a half step behind the starters but is going to be a contributor, the defensive end depth is great. The linebackers looked good, it was nice to see Rolder play well. Jyaire Hill looked fast and will be a star in time. You could begrudgingly be a cover-1 team this year. Zeke Berry was an excellent blitzer, much to Brian’s chagrin. McBurrows looked Mike Sainristil esque. The kicking was… at the point that they could potentially explore the portal. 

3. Basketball Roster - Part One

Starts at 59:35
Takes hotter than Michigan message boards when Kirk Campbell said they don't need a quarterback transfer. The best part about winning a national championship is reading rivals' tweets four months later. We have a semblance of a basketball roster! Tre Donaldson committed mid-recording. Assuming Vlad Goldin and Roddy Gayle transfer, we know pretty much all but one player in Michigan's rotation so let's go through them! Donaldson is your starting point guard, then you have three guards. Brian is very high on Rubin Jones out of North Texas. Guard will be night and day from what we've already had. Unexpected and welcomed center depth. 

4. Basketball Roster - Part Two

Starts at 1:35:39
Namari Burnett hasn't really announced anything so we're assuming he's back on the team. He should be a pretty good 20 minute per game backup. They should pick up Lorenzo Cason, an FAU decommit. Do they get another guard and what do the freshman minutes look like? What is going on at the 4? Will Tschetter is the only power forward. There's a basketball roster now and they're in a better spot than a lot of teams! Just got to fill it out now. This is a tournament team roster, can they gel together? What is their ceiling, maybe a four seed? In hindsight, Dusty May was the best coach available and Michigan hired him away from Louisville. 

MUSIC:

  • "Riverboat"—Jesse Roads
  • “Vacations"—Midwest
  • “Sinner”—The Last Dinner Party
  • “Across 110th Street”—JJ Johnson and his Orchestra
THE USUAL LINKS:

"As long as the Ohio State fans figure out which holes are for the legs then then they can put on a diaper, too."

Comments

jrock154

April 22nd, 2024 at 8:13 AM ^

When Denegal was in in a couple of blowouts last year he looked pretty good. I wonder if he's pressing.... He seemed to struggle more than the other QBs.

whidbeywolverine

April 22nd, 2024 at 8:40 AM ^

We can’t afford another Denard at Nebraska injury, so read option can’t be our primary offense with only one read option QB. Time to push our chips in with Warren and run Orji as the Tebow change of pace.

ShadowStorm33

April 22nd, 2024 at 10:24 AM ^

That may be true, but it misses the point. The point wasn't that Orji is more likely to get injured in a QB-run system. His point was that it's incredibly risky to switch to a QB-run system (e.g. read option) when Orji is the only QB we have that can effectively run it. If Orji gets hurt, we either have to scrap that offense and all the time spent on it (when practice time is limited to begin with), or try to continue running it with non-running QBs. Remember Threet and Sheridan trying to run the read option in 2008? I'd prefer not to have a repeat of that...

ca_prophet

April 22nd, 2024 at 3:48 PM ^

Everybody says that (QB-read offenses are risky because there's only 1 QB who can run it), but that doesn't stop people when circumstances warrant.  It's not like Meyer at OSU had a running QB backing up Barrett, etc.

I don't think we're really arguing about the facts, only our projections of how those facts will play out.  Orji is the only QB with an elite skill ... and it's not related to throwing the ball.  So work backwards:
- Can M win another championship without an elite-skill QB?
- Can they be playoff-eligible without one?
- Can they beat OSU without one?

If the "practical/reasonable" goal(1) is one of the above, and the answer is no, then Orji will start and they'll live with the results.  If the answer is yes, then we might see Tuttle/Warren start.  The outcome of the QB race might tell us more about Michigan's goals than about the QBs.

  1.  Yes, I know every program/team/player's goal is to win a title and anything else is unacceptable blah blah blah whatever.  Wishing does not make it so.

Fezzik

April 22nd, 2024 at 8:46 AM ^

The odds of Orgi staying healthy as a primary running threat in a run designed offense against the most difficult schedule Michigan may have ever had with a new OL is incredibly low. And if he does get injured, all the back ups are not running QBs. So then we would have to change our offense mid-season. All a logical recipe for disaster. Orgi is a sub-package QB who hopefully learns to throw well enough to become a great change of pass back up weapon. This is his realistic ceiling. 

Quailman

April 22nd, 2024 at 9:08 AM ^

Why does the MGoStaff want Orji to start so bad and why are they so sure about him as the starter? 

Is it just being enamored with his physical tools and thinking it would be cool if he was the guy, or do they really think that he's the best QB and best chance at winning.

I feel like i know the true answer, but it's different from what the answer is that is said. 

King Tot

April 22nd, 2024 at 9:47 AM ^

I do not think they want Orji to start badly/ feel certain. I think they have explained it regularly. Orji does something at an elite level whereas the other options do not. If we can establish that elite part of his game, combined with other elements of our team, we are a contender. 

jesse.knowsfoo…

April 22nd, 2024 at 9:09 AM ^

The QB breakdown was wild Orji hit 70% and Warren hit 69%. That is pretty much JJ. JJ had a high completion percentage, but also missed wide open receivers because he rocket balls almost ever throw. 

m83econ

April 22nd, 2024 at 9:36 AM ^

The amount of rationalization around Orji is stunning.  What coaching staff is going to build their entire offense around a capability that exists in 1 quarterback on your roster?  

bronxblue

April 22nd, 2024 at 11:03 AM ^

Jalen Milroe was a top-100 player in his class and was an accurate-ish HS passer (60% for his career) while Orji was a 3* kid who completed under 50% of his passes throughout HS, and even if you throw out his first year as a starter he only completed 51% of his passes as an upperclassman.  That's got Joe Milton stink on it, and while some people seemingly enjoyed that experienced it got old for me pretty quickly.  And Milroe just finished a season where he threw for 10 ypa at 66%, 23 TDs and 6 picks and had elite WRs he was throwing to.  Orji isn't anywhere close to that or has that type of WR talent on the team.

Listen, Orji is a top-level athlete and I can see the glimmers of ability there if he can put the passing part of it all together.  But he's also been on campus for 3 years now and still looks limited, and at some point you've got a ticking clock on how much realistic time you'd get out of him before eligibility ran out.  I suspect they'll give him a shot and create a sub-package for him but him as the team's starting QB has a realistic ceiling that is way lower than some are willing to admit unless we just assume he's been sandbagging for years and is in fact a top-level defense reader and accurate thrower.

dragonchild

April 22nd, 2024 at 10:22 AM ^

It's kind of a variant of "don't practice fucked".  Orji can't be a pure pocket passer, but he can open up the offense in a way the others can't.  Oversimplifying for the sake of brevity, we basically have two options:

  • Run an option offense with Orji and a chance to repeat as B1G champions, with an equal chance of going 6-6 if Orji goes down.
  • Shoot for 9-3 with a QB who can't do anything at an elite level.

I guess MGoBlog's take is, Orji has the most potential, so why would you structure your offense around backups?

bronxblue

April 22nd, 2024 at 11:06 AM ^

  • Run an option offense with Orji and a chance to repeat as B1G champions, with an equal chance of going 6-6 if Orji goes down.

This feels like a massive projection based on virtually no actual evidence.  The "option offense" assumes Orji can run that complex system of reads well, all the backs figure out how to master those same intricacies, and the offensive line and TEs who were recruited and coached in one way of blocking seamlessly migrate to a different one with a first-time HC and OC who, AFAIK, haven't run it before.

On the other hand, Cade McNamara couldn't do anything at an elite level, and to some here was the worst possible QB UM has seen in forever, and won a conference crown and went to the playoffs.  So yeah, if they can get a Cade-level performance out of the QB spot then we have evidence of that working out pretty well.

bronxblue

April 22nd, 2024 at 2:46 PM ^

Ah yes, because apparently "hate" is pointing out that a guy who was a sub-50% passer in HS and who hasn't shown much ability throwing the ball at UM is going to flourish in year 1 with a completely new offensive system that the staff would have to install that is markedly different than the one they used to win a national title and go something like 30-3  the past 3 seasons.  

Your opinion is different than mine, and that's fair.  Nothing we say here actually matters; none of us will put even the slightest pressure on Moore and co. to pick a QB.  But saying "if they don't pick Orji they've conceded a year and will, at best, finish 9-3 without any meaningful accomplishments" I feel it's within the Message Board By-Laws of the Internet to push back with tangible examples of how, in fact, this team has won quite a bit with more limited QBs than the guy with questionable accuracy but a ton of raw ability.

Swayze Howell Sheen

April 22nd, 2024 at 9:38 AM ^

I am waiting for Brian to chime in on the NCAA stuff. Has he yet? Or really anyone on the staff. Did I miss some writing on the NCAA cheeseburger findings? (and perhaps any implications they might have for future signgate findings?)

maizenblue92

April 22nd, 2024 at 9:51 AM ^

There is not really anything to chime in on. They got probation and a fine and its closed from our perspective. There is not much you can draw for sign stuff because there isn't a NOA yet to compare to and that is before we get to the NCAA being an unpredictable organization. I mean we could be looking at a bunch of level 3 violations based on the letter of the law and get a sternly worded talking to or Blue-anon Buckeye/Spartan posters could be the blind squirrel that finds a nut and it's a bunch of level 1s. Won't know until the NOA.

Here2CWoodson

April 22nd, 2024 at 10:08 AM ^

Good takes as always. Maybe I missed it, but no mention of Fred Moore on it? I thought he looked good minus a drop at the beginning I believe? But showed some speed and quickness that was encouraging! I think we could be ok at WR, barring injuries. 

RockinLoud

April 22nd, 2024 at 10:18 AM ^

Idk man, at this point going into the fall I'm going to be pretty skeptical that QB play will be anything other than just ok, and very possibly kind-of-bad. I hope I'm pleasantly surprised.

bronxblue

April 22nd, 2024 at 10:18 AM ^

I just don't quite get the Orji love as a starting QB.  Maybe he figures it all out but he's entering his third year on campus and is going to be 21 midway through the season.  He's got some ability but if you switch the offense completely around to cater to his strengths (running, athleticism) then you're (a) limiting your upside elsewhere with the other QBs on the roster for this season, and (b) signalling that you should probably start recruiting QBs like him going forward because otherwise you're just going to be flipping around your offense in a year or two once he's not the starter and, I don't know, Davis is your preferred starter.  There's some overlap in terms of skillsets there but that's still a different style of QB (the Jalen Milroe-type guy who was a bruiser but could also throw decently if unrefined) versus what UM liked to get under Harbaugh (the JJ type who was really accurate as a passer and had enough athleticism to be a weapon with the ball in his hands).  OSU under Urban Meyer made the decision to go away from the JT types to the Haskins/Stroud types and didn't look back, and thats the type of buy-in Moore would similarly need to make.  He may very well do so, but that's the choice you'd need to make.

Also, the Rich Rod offense we all remember isn't really the one you'd love to run in 2024 football IMO.  He runs it at places like Jax St. because it works with the talent he's got available to him and the relative competition (the CUSA is pretty mediocre outside of Liberty, which is itself sort of a mediocre program that just outspends the other schools).  But there was an article I read a couple years ago where they asked coaches what part of "dual threat" they liked more in their QBs and all said arm talent and accuracy.  Most guys can move enough now that they aren't John Navarre types back there, and you can scheme a couple of runs a game for QBs if you need them.  But guys like Milroe, Daniels, Lamar Jackson in the NFL as well as college, etc. work because they are decent passers and can make teams pay even when they don't bite on the run, and I'm not seeing that with Orji yet.  Warren is closer to that type of QB, and if the rumors about his injuries last year are true then he's the better option, along with Tuttle, for this season with Orji coming in as a package asset until/if he becomes a more complete passer.

As for the basketball roster discussion, I'm not sold they're a top-4 in the conference type of team but they have a floor that is .500 in the conference and a bubble contender.  That's a reasonable expectation given the fact we're still talking about a lot of transfers and most of the guys needing to learn a new offensive and defensive system.  

AC1997

April 22nd, 2024 at 10:58 AM ^

I have never been a believer in Orji as QB1 and have been shocked at Brian/Seth being comfortable with that.  I feel even more strongly after the spring game.  Orji has a long way to go in order to be "competent" as a passer.  I think the plan should be a Tebow-style part time guy with Tuttle/Warren/Portal as the primary.  Some supporting thoughts....

  • How many programs in the top-25 are running QB-run as their focus these days?  
  • We can talk about "the RichRod offense" on this podcast....but who on this staff knows those tricks?  
  • Who on this staff is comfortable learning, teaching, and using those tricks as the primary strategy?  
  • What happens when (not if) Orji gets dinged up?
  • Are we sure Orji is really as dynamic a runner as we're suggesting?  I see a good runner....I don't see Denard.  I see power and change of pace, not dynamic elusiveness.  
  • Would we rather the program spend all off-season learning a QB-Read Option offense....or teaching Orji better passing mechanics and reads?  

I think we're in a bit of a bind because Tuttle/Warren project as nice back-ups while Orji projects as a change-of-pace guy.  Barring a portal add, I think they're going to go with the Cade offense 65% of the time and the Tebow offense the rest as a change of pace.

ca_prophet

April 22nd, 2024 at 3:57 PM ^

To be contrarian for a minute ...
- It doesn't matter how many other programs have a QB-first run game.  It only matters whether M has the talent/coaching for it, and whether that's the best use of the resources at hand.
- The "RichRod QB game" is not really a special scheme at this point - the best parts have been picked up, refined and incorporated into a zillion other schemes/plays.
- If Kirk Campbell isn't comfortable teaching/running QB-run plays, they won't be running them, but I'm confident Moore/Campbell had that talk already when they were laying out the plan for the year.
- Who did Meyer have backing up Barrett?
- Orji is not Denard, but he might be their JT Barrett.
- Why not both?

The short answer here is likely a variation on what dragonchild posted above.  If they need a QB with an elite skill - any elite skill! - to meet our goals, then Orji is the only choice, they'll make it and live with the results.  If they don't think they need that to beat OSU, then Tuttle/Warren would get the nod.

Geddes87

April 22nd, 2024 at 11:59 AM ^

Warren and Moore were both on the move, in opposite directions, and he hit him right on the “3” for that TD pass.  Looked like a starter to me.

Swayze Howell Sheen

April 22nd, 2024 at 2:16 PM ^

I think negativity around QB relates a bit to our recent levels of success. It will be a step down no matter what, and thus people come across as a little less than optimistic. I think it's natural.

ThadMattasagoblin

April 22nd, 2024 at 6:19 PM ^

I feel like a "game manager" qb like Tuttle can get us back into the playoffs while Orji seems like the kind of qb that could toss 3 back breaking interception in a crucial game. Nobody is saying that Orji can't play significant minutes just that he isn't the starter.

WalmartWolve

April 23rd, 2024 at 6:02 PM ^

Folks, isn’t time we drop “Across 110th Street”

From the Music bullet points?

The program has exercised some of those demons that wouldn’t let them free over the past few years.