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THE ESSENTIALS

WHAT	#15 Michigan (19-2, 10-10 Big Ten) vs #27 Rutgers (20-11, 11-9 Big Ten)
WHERE	Ann Arbor Elder Law Fieldhouse Indianapolis, IN
WHEN	Noon Thursday
THE LINE	Michigan –2,  Michigan W 56% (KenPom) Michigan –2, Michigan W 58% (Torvik)
TELEVISION	BTN

THE US

Seth's graphic:

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Michigan reaches the sanctuary of a neutral court, where they're 4-0 this season and 31-5 the past four years. Is that a largely fake stat? Yes! Does it make you feel a bit better? Probably! Also in stats of low utility, Michigan hasn't lost its opener at the Big Ten tournament since 2006.

Note that for now the Big Ten intends to allow fans at the tournament. What the environment will be like is anyone's guess.

[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the preview.]

THE THEM

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After a torrid start, Rutgers was drifting towards the bubble during a 2-6 stretch in which one of the wins was at home in OT over Northwestern. Then they clonked Maryland by 11 as the Terrapins shot 19% from three and got their first road win of the season against Not Nebraska when they slid by Purdue in an OT game. That'll do for Rutgers's first NCAA bid since 1991, a fact I memorized some years ago when Northwestern was vying for its first bid in program history and Rutgers was next on the list of major-conference tourney droughts.

Steve Pikiell was robbed of coach of the year. 29 years! 29 YEARS.

Anyway: Michigan is 2-0 against Rutgers this year and probably feels pretty good about this matchup. They were the only team to breach the fortress that was the RAC and Michigan's "home" game came in front of a 60-40 Rutgers crowd at Madison Square Garden; that win came without Isaiah Livers. Rutgers palpably lacks the stretch five that has blistered Michigan's defense in their last three losses.

PERSONNEL

a fairly typical Rutgers shot [Campredon]

You're probably familiar with the shape of Rutgers after the first two games. For more detail visit Ace's preview before the first matchup. A brief recap with updates follows.

PG Geo Baker remains the valiant chucker he's always been. Yeah, his efficiency numbers are questionable. (45/30 shooting in Big Ten play.) But Baker takes more bad shots than anyone in the country out of necessity, and Rutgers needs those shots badly:

Those defensive numbers give a little pause.

Baker's hitting a stellar 45% on midrange twos this season despite taking virtually all of those shots off the dribble; he's barely more efficient at the rim. He provides the Rutgers offense a high floor since he's one of the best Good At Bad Shots guys in the league; not much Michigan can do here except force him into 0.9 PPP shots and hope he doesn't get hot. He's also developed into a bonafide playmaker with the #11 assist rate in the league and a solid TO rate.

SG Montez Mathis has been rough in Big Ten play hitting 37/35. He comes with an excellent TO rate and is one of the peskier defenders on the Cable Subscribers; if Michigan can force him into taking twos they'll be fine. He shot 24% from three last year and has some ugly FT numbers so his performance outside the line might be a little anomalous; it's built on just 62 shots, with almost triple that number inside the line.

SF Akwasi Yeboah transferred from Stony Brook, Pikiell's old program, and has been a box-score filler with good efficiency. He's not quite as tall but he's got a Wagner-esque ability to get his hands on balls while on defense and he's been effective in Rutgers's toughest games, shooting 54/36 in Tier A outings with a rock bottom TO rate. He also gets after it on the defensive boards.

PF Ron Harper Jr is a very close statistical analogue of Yeboah, less effective inside the line and a tad better outside of it; he also has a Beilein-esque TO rate. He's capable of straight line drives off closeouts but at 245 he's not a particularly agile player; Michigan did a good job of bottling him up this season. He's 3/11 from two and 2/8 from three in two outings.

[Campredon]

C Myles Johnson is a B+ rim protector and a monster offensive rebounder. He's mostly a finisher on offense but does have some back to the basket game. Not enough to do much against Teske; he's 2/10 from the floor against Michigan this year with 4 TOs and no assists. He is also an abominable FT shooter at 35%.

The Rutgers bench:

• PG JACOB YOUNG(!!!), who is Rutgers's highest usage player in 20 MPG despite an ORTG ten points lower than any other Cable Subscriber. Against Michigan Young has four perimeter steals that led to fast break buckets the other way; he is 3/23 on all other attempts to put the ball in the basket. The Leeroy Jenkins of college basketball.
• SF Caleb McConnell, a relatively turnover-prone wing who can be sagged off of (29% from three, 5/27 in Big Ten play).
• SF Paul Mulcahy, the headband-wearing freshman with near-invisible usage. He's efficient inside the line because he only takes obvious opportunities; he is not a shooter. TO rate way too high for what he does.
• C Shaq Carter, a low usage big with a little back to the basket game and zero assists on the season. Carter is functional but a big downgrade from Johnson as an OREB guy and a rim protector.
• C Mamadou Doucoure. Emergency C who only gets minutes if there's foul trouble.

THE RELEVANT NUMBERS

Rutgers is dead last in conference play in number of threes attempted and assist rate; they're 13th in FT%. They take a ton of midrange jumpers and try to work around their limitations.

On defense there's a bit of an anomaly: Rutgers gives up a lot of threes (second worst in the league) but is second-best at preventing them from going down. This is a real feature of zone defenses, but Rutgers is a man to man team. They're also third in 2P% D, which is way more sustainable, and have the second-best block rate in the conference. That's an indicator they're forcing misses.

THE KEYS

Rebound and win. Rutgers had 26 offensive rebounds in the first game and 14 in the second one. They shot 36/25 and 42/18 in those games. Without any stretch from their five position and amongst the fewest attempted threes in the league there's not a ton they can do to resurrect what looks like a really bad defensive matchup for them. Shot parity should be a comfortable win even if Michigan continues to scuffle from three.

Speaking of…

HIT A DANG THREE. Michigan has not cracked 30% in six consecutive games. Maybe the trident isn't cursed at neutral sites?

Limit easy buckets. Young kept Rutgers vaguely in the MSG game with three pick-six steals. Against a steal-heavy team that struggles in the half court every easy bucket is a major missed opportunity to D-up.

Austin Davis burst. Davis is 5/5 against Rutgers this year and this is the kind of game where his defensive issues are less of a problem. If Michigan can get an efficient chunk of points from him in 10-15 minutes that margin might be difficult for Rutgers to make up.

THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES

Michigan by 2.