Welllllllll it's #HateWeek everybody and that means it's time to examine the most fearsome unit in America, the Ohio State offense. As it stands presently, the OSU offense is a mindboggling product that can rip a defense to shreds by having the best talent of any offense in the country, which is perfectly calibrated to fit its scheme. The numbers are staggering: 559.5 yards per game and 47.2 points per game. 7.9 yards per play, a full 0.7 yards better than the next best team. They just hung 56 points on the only team that Michigan has lost to this season, including seven touchdowns on their first seven possessions in that game. Three future first-round NFL receivers. Two probable first-round NFL offensive tackles. A Heisman candidate at QB. Two running backs who average >7 yards per carry. Their SP+ offensive rating is 47.2, a full 4.4 points better than #2 Alabama and starting to challenge 2019 LSU as perhaps the greatest offense of the analytics era. How the f*** do you beat these guys? 

Let's try our best to examine a path to keeping the offense in the yard, while also pointing out the many places this sociopathic grizzly bear wielding a flamethrower could completely incinerate your defense. 

The Film: There are some roadmaps to stopping OSU's offense, between Nebraska, Penn State, and Oregon, three teams that all kept OSU under 30 points on offense (the Buckeyes notched a defensive TD against PSU to get over 30). That said, it would also be wildly unfair to use just one of those games, because it would depict a more neutered Buckeye offense and not the one that has obliterated most opposing defenses it has faced. Normally I stick to just one game, but for this column, since it's in preparation for the biggest game of the season, I said "why not just go crazy with it?": 

So, while I only graded the PSU game, I'm going to draw upon tape from the Michigan State game as a way to show the Buckeye offense in much more dangerous light, while also incorporating clips from a number of other games. This will be the longest and most detailed FFFF of the season, but that's what a week with these stakes calls for, eh? 

Personnel:

[Seth note: I previously sent Alex a version of this with Turner starred and Ojabo shielded before I got too deep into the defensive UFR. Turner...did not make it. Ojabo is a 1st rounder on his potential but this game emphasized a major hole in his game currently, and I didn't feel it was right to put him on the level the other shields on this graphic are playing at right now.] 

PAIN. 

CJ Stroud has stepped into the QB job vacated by Justin Fields and has put together a dominant season, delivering very good balls to the wide receiver group that is almost always open. His utter obliteration of Michigan State last week (32/35 for 432 yards, 6 TD, 0 INT (!!!!!!!!!)) has made him the Vegas favorite for the Heisman, and we will certainly discuss him at length later in the piece. Stroud never comes off the field unless the game is over, but I still decided to include Kyle McCord on the chart because I was reminded that each of the last three Michigan-Ohio State meetings have featured the backup QB on the field for some (non-garbage time) stretch of the game for Ohio State. McCord is only a true freshman and he has looked like one this season. 

The Buckeyes entered the season with Miyan Williams and Master Teague III sharing the starting responsibilities but as your author predicted in August, true freshman TreVeyon Henderson ascended to the starting job rather quickly. He's been electric as the lead back, with 14 TDs and 1098 rushing yards on 7.3 YPC, taking the holes his offensive line gives him and turning them into home runs with the blazing speed that his 5* status conveys. Williams and Teague do not have Henderson's raw tools and that's why he's become the JK Dobbins to their Mike Weber. Henderson does play a role in the passing game, having hauled in 18 catches for 231 yards and three additional scores on the season. 

It will take years of hindsight and an examination of how these players end up in the NFL to really determine whether this is the best NCAA wide receiver group of all-time, but boy it feels like it has a chance. LSU's 2019 group of Ja'Marr Chase and Justin Jefferson were legendary, but this is a fully three-headed monster that also has impeccable depth. Chris Olave has been terrorizing the B1G for years and passed up a first round draft slot to return to Columbus so he could rescue his grandmother who was locked in Ryan Day's basement. Olave leads the receiving corps in TDs, but trails in the other statistical categories to Garrett Wilson, the lightning fast outside receiver who torched Michigan as a true freshman in 2019, as well as Jaxon Smith-Njigba, a sophomore slot type who Michigan has yet to see. Both Wilson and JSN were 5* recruits who have accented Olave to put together this unstoppable tank. Olave and Wilson will be first rounders in April (unless Day also abducts Wilson's grandma) and JSN seems to be a lock to be one in April 2023 already. 

Those three have combined for 73% of OSU's pass yardage this season, but the remaining 27% is scattered between a litany of other talented options, including the next wave of guys who will be gut-punching the B1G for the next several years. That includes Emeka Egbuka, a true freshman who was the nation's #10 overall recruit this spring (and is also the team's kick returner), Marvin Harrison Jr., son of that Marvin Harrison and a top 100 recruit himself, and Julian Fleming, who was the nation's #3 overall recruit last spring. The amount of weapons that Ohio State has at the skill positions is so disturbing that the FBI ought to have put the team on the terror watchlist by now. 

If there's one area that isn't quite up to snuff with the rest of the team, it's tight end. Jeremy Ruckert was *surprise* a top 50 recruit himself (and a Michigan target) once upon a time, but he's become only alright. A decent receiving option but nothing to write home about (I know that me saying that means he will have 200 yards on Saturday). The backup TEs include Cade Stover, who comes on as more of a blocker in two TE sets, and then half-TE, half-FB Mitch Rossi, who actually started his NCAA career as a linebacker. Rossi comes on in the situational moments when OSU goes under center. 

The offensive line is anchored by the tackle positions, where the Buckeyes could have both OTs get drafted in the top 45 picks this spring. That tandem is former 5* (and Michigan target) LT Nicholas Petit-Frere, as well as mountainous (6'8, 360) RT Dawand Jones, who both possess sparkling PFF grades and have provided clean pockets for Stroud all year long. The guards are not as highly thought of from an NFL standpoint but have been good too, 5* RG Paris Johnson Jr. and LG Thayer Munford. Munford is a name you probably remember, a multi-year starter at tackle who they shifted inside to make room for Jones at RT. The center spot is held by Luke Wypler, a highly touted recruit who has settled in as a starter this season. The OL has had a great bill of clean health this season, so swingman Matthew Jones is the only reserve worth discussing. Jones has been very good this season when called upon either at OT or OG. 

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Spread, pro-style, or hybrid: Just to reiterate what I said in the "The Film" section, these tables will be from the OSU/PSU game only. Ohio State is a modern passing offense which is to say it's a spread offense. Stroud is not the runner that JT Barrett was, so that version of the Urban Meyer Tebow-era QB run offense has been phased out and it's an offense centered around the pass and building the run off the threat of the pass. Here's our play distribution table: 

Down	Run	Pass
1st	16	13
2nd	9	13
3rd	6	10
4th	1	1

Pretty balanced all the way around, though I'll say that the distribution was more heavily skewed toward the pass until the fourth quarter, when Ohio State finally got some traction on the ground and also were trying to grind the clock down with a late lead in a close game. 

As for formation, you can see that this is predominantly a shotgun offense, although they go under center more than a number of teams Michigan has faced this season: 

Formation	Run	PA	Pass	Total
Shotgun	24	4	32	87%
Under Center	8	1		13%

About what you'd expect from a modern passing offense like this, utilizing under center formations at the goal lines and in short yardage, as well as when it's occasionally advantageous, but otherwise operating mostly out of the gun. 

Basketball on Grass or MANBALL: Basketball on Grass, quite obviously. The Ohio State offense is predicated on spreading their playmakers out to give them plenty of space, and then making you pick which ones you want to account for, allowing them to go to the ones you can't account for. The base package is standard 11 personnel, 1 RB, 1 TE, and 3 WRs, which are usually Henderson, Ruckert, and then Olave/Wilson/JSN. The base set looks like this: 

It's the base set, but it was only used marginally more often than the other way they like to line that personnel package up, which is to have Ruckert out wide as a receiver, with Henderson next to Stroud: 

That four wide alignment can morph into five wide because of Henderson's abilities as a receiver: 

When Ohio State chooses to deviate from that personnel package, it generally goes to 2 TEs. They don't have much of a 2 RB look anymore because the only thing this offense lacks is the shifty half-RB/half-WR piece they used to have in Curtis Samuel and Parris Campbell on OSU teams past. When they go with 2 TEs, it tends to look like this: 

The last wrinkle is the occasional use of Mitch Rossi the fullback, who did line up in an I-Formation a couple times against PSU. Don't expect to see this often, but if Ohio State happens to be in a high-leverage, 4th & 1 situation, there's a chance you could see this on the field: 

I included these last two images because I want to showcase all that could be coming, but those 3-4-5 wide alignments under 11 personnel is what OSU will be doing against Michigan on the vast majority of plays. 

Hurry it up, or Grind it out: Ohio State is a faster moving team, but still in the realm of what is pretty normal for a CFB team. Depending on the play, they may move more quickly or will take time off to check to the sideline, but you're still going to see them sitting in that 15-25 seconds on the playclock range that many teams operate in nowadays. I would assume they're going to pepper in plenty of tempo because OSU researches Michigan like Indiana Jones' dad researched the Holy Grail and the book is pretty well written about Michigan's defense and tempo, but this still shouldn't look like the peak Chip Kelly Oregon teams. I will note that I'd expect OSU to move a bit quicker than usual not just because of the tempo weakness, but also because they want this to be a fast game with many possessions. It's Michigan who will want to slow it down, shorten the game, and grind it out. 

Quarterback Dilithium Level (Scale: 1 [Navarre] to 10 [Denard]): Stroud is much more Dwayne Haskins than JT Barrett when it comes to running the ball, and compared to 2019, Fields was much more of a run threat than Stroud is. For reference, in 2019 Fields carried the ball 137 times (sacks included) in OSU's 14 games (10 carries per game), compared to Stroud carrying it 25 times in 10 games (2.5 carries per game) this season. OSU has allowed 13 sacks on the season (though not all of them were on Stroud), so we're really looking at something like 1-2 true carries per game for Stroud. Not much of a weapon. 

That isn't to say he's got Cade McNamara speed, though. Stroud can run and the threat is there, even if he doesn't do it all that much. I didn't see it at all in the PSU game, but there was one moment that caught my eye against MSU. Here, MSU drops everybody back in protection (no QB spy), pressure starts to come, and Stroud smartly steps up and scrambles for the first down: 

He can do that. In re-watching the 2018 highlights, I was reminded that Ryan Day called a QB run read for Haskins on OSU's first play from scrimmage, which, much like Stroud, was not something you felt like you needed to watch out for. That play is almost certainly still in the playbook and given the rivalry nature, you have to think it's coming out of the garage for this one at some point. All of this considered, let's give Stroud a 5. Not a feature of the offense, but it can hurt you if you don't remember it. 

Dangerman: This section feels rather superfluous when 10/11 offensive starters have stars and I could've picked between five different guys for this. And since much of the overview will just be dangerman sections for different players, this is mostly a formality, but I think it has to be Jaxon Smith-Njigba because he's the unique piece that Michigan is yet to see. Michigan has seen Olave and Wilson before, and though they haven't seen TreVeyon Henderson, they can conceptualize him with the sentence "imagine JK Dobbins, but one inch taller and a little lighter". But JSN or "Ninja" as some have called him, offers something that is a bit more unfamiliar. 

Smith-Njigba is the piece that really brings the offense together. Obviously, having game-breaking receivers on the outside, a fortified OL, and a home-run hitting RB are all great, but it's the addition of Smith-Njigba who makes it almost impossible to handle: an athletic, slippery slot piece who suctions up all the free yards you have to give him because you've sent your safeties deep to deal with Olave/Wilson, and your LB's are trying to fit the run to stop Henderson. If you play like most teams feel they have to against OSU, it leaves this layer of yardage between the line of scrimmage and the line to gain that Smith-Njigba feasts on: 

WR #11 in slot to bottom of the screen

What makes JSN really dangerous is his ability to run a routine route that your CBs are going to be hard pressed to stop, and then turn that reception into a HR: 

WR #11 in slot to bottom of screen

How many receivers in college football can turn a seven-yard comebacks route into a 50+ yard gain? And this is not the only time he's done it, of course: 

Again, that's a six yard route where JSN just sits down in the zone underneath, catches a pass, has DBs around him, and then is gone. The combination of agility and shiftiness + athleticism is lethal and incredibly rare. The fact you can pair that out of the slot with two of the best deep ball threats in the country is why this passing offense has taken it to another level even from when Fields was around in 2019. 

Most of the JSN targets look like the first clip I showed you, hoovering up the 5-8 yards underneath on crossing routes or quick comebacks, but the ability to turn a single into a homer is why tackling from the DBs is paramount. 

HenneChart: How did Heisman-favorite CJ Stroud hold up in this game? Let's stake a look: 

OSU vs. PSU	Good				Neutral			Bad					Ovr
Quarterback	DO	CA	SCR		PR	MA		BA	TA	IN	BR		DSR	PFF
CJ Stroud	2	17	-		1	3		-	2	7	-		68%	-

Pretty good. Was not his best outing of the season, as Penn State did plenty of things to give him trouble, but he also didn't turn the ball over and made mostly good passes, delivering catchable balls more than 2/3 of the time while dealing with more pressure than he's faced all season (not saying much, but still). One thing you have to note about Stroud, of course, is that he throws to wide open receivers on almost every play because this team has the best WR group in America by a substantial margin. But there's something to be said for throwing perfect balls that hit those open receivers in stride to allow them to make plays. Stroud does that on a regular basis: 

(not gif'd because my torrent copy of this game inconveniently didn't have this drive on it)

That's a tighter window than Stroud normally throws into, and with more pressure than he normally faces, but he still beams a laser right down the slot to hit Ruckert over the outrstetched defender, in stride so that the TE can rumble for a big YAC gain too. 

Here's another really nice throw he made, again to Ruckert: 

For me, the telling part of this throw is how Stroud hits Ruckert so he's able to turn upfield and get five extra yards. Most college quarterbacks are hitting that and then the receiver goes laterally out of bounds at around the 40. Instead, Ruckert is able to turn the shoulder and go out at the 36, some of those hidden yards a really good QB can deliver to his receivers by making a dead-on throw instead of a marginal one. 

Stroud throws a lot of short routes and he's very consistent at hitting them, whether it's to JSN or Henderson: 

That's a six yard pick up off the backs of a good route and a catchable ball. Easy money.

Stroud's deep ball, as you may expect, is very good. He hits Olave here despite pressure for the deep bomb: 

That's probably not even one of his best throws of the year when it comes to targeting receivers down the field, as it's a tiny bit ahead of Olave. Here's a better one against MSU: 

And another one to Wilson where he hits the open receiver more or less in stride, allowing him to break free: 

Wilson has to do the tiniest little gallop to adjust but it doesn't affect the route and one of the fastest WRs in the country is gone. 

It's pretty obvious that those clips cannot happen if you're an opposing defense. You can't let the WRs get behind the last line of your defense, and you also can't give Stroud the time to throw that accurate of balls. One thing that is topical to note about Stroud is that while I think his deep ball is substantially better than Haskins', there is a bit of Haskins in him in the way he deals with pressure. There were a couple of throws in this game that he normally makes if he didn't start to feel a bit of heat: 

That's a corner blitz that causes Stroud to rush just the slightest amount and throw it incomplete. Another example is one I had clipped previously when I was doing this game for PSU's defense, where pressure forces a Stroud miss on what was a target to either Olave or Wilson, both of whom were open deep: 

Some teams have gotten Stroud to make a couple bad decisions. Nebraska forced him into two INTs, including this howler, which was also the result of pressure:

That's not a good throw, and it's also a terrible decision, considering the receiver is not open. These last couple of clips are the kind of plays that will decide the game. When given time, Stroud will destroy you, making accurate throws to the most dangerous playmakers in America and generally reading the defenses quite well. But if you can get a little bit of pressure on him, you may be able to come up with a couple of the stops that you need to win a game like this. How do you get that pressure? Well, that's what part of this next section is for. 

 

Overall 

How should we break down the OSU offense overall then? I think the best way to go about it is the following structure: 

1. Showcase the remaining un-discussed weapons on offense 
2. Talk about some of the main plays and strategies that they like to run 
3. Discuss what strategies have worked/how to contain this offense 

As for the weapons we have not blathered about, let's tackle the other two receivers, Olave and Wilson. We don't really need to go into detail on Chris Olave because most Michigan fans probably have the name "OLAVE" burned into the front of their brains after 2018 and 2019, and we've already shown off some of his clips. He's still a fast receiver with immense deep ball ability, just as he was back then, but I do want to throw this clip out there: 

WR #2 to the bottom of screen

I toss this out because it both demonstrates how everything was going right for Ohio State against the Spartans last week, but also because it's a great example of the finer points of being a receiver that Olave has mastered: the body control, the coordination, being able to locate it over his shoulder and toe tap the feet. NFL scouts will love that clip, because it shows more than just the athletic gifts. 

Garrett Wilson is also still the deep ball threat with lightning speed he was back in 2019, but I think it's worth pointing out the ways that they use Wilson as a screen option. All three receivers get screens thrown their way, but Wilson was the one who got the most of them in the PSU game: 

WR #5 to the top of the screen

That clip should highlight how Wilson isn't just fast, he's also got some of the shiftiness that Smith-Njigba possesses in making a man mass on the catch-and-run. They also use Wilson's speed as a jet sweep option: 

The jet sweep is a perfect complement to TreVeyon Henderson's ability to light a defense up. Here he gets a hole from his offensive line, and then does the rest himself: 

On that play it's C Luke Wypler and RG Paris Johnson Jr. who help open the hole, despite an iffy play from RT Dawand Jones, and then once Henderson has the window, he is leaping right through it. The PSU safety #16 does not take a terrible angle, but with a player who possesses the lethal speed of TreVeyon Henderson, it doesn't really matter. Ohio State's entire offense is based around the fact that one mistake from your defense at any time can and will lead to six points, because every one of their playmakers can go from 0 to 60 in the blink of an eye. 

As previously stated, Henderson can catch it and run too: 

Yup. That's this offense. 

My reaction too, Woody. 

While they don't count as "weapons" in a skill position sense, the offensive line is dominant. You saw a hole open up on that Henderson run and have seen generally clean pockets for many of Stroud's completions. The tackles of Jones and Nicholas Petit-Frere keep Stroud protected and the interior paves the way for Henderson to go to work.  

From a conceptual standpoint, we've seen a lot of what Ohio State is wanting to do already, and all of the strategy blends together. In this example, watch what happens to the MSU CB at the top of the screen: 

OSU has one receivers plus two TEs to the right side of the field, which means most of the DBs and the deep safety are already weighted towards that side. Then, because OSU uses the Wilson jet sweep often as a viable play, when Wilson begins in motion, the corner at the top of the screen has to move across the field, and one safety rolls down farther. The result is that you went from this pre-play: 

To this by the time the ball is handed off: 

The threat of the jet sweep cleared the defenders out from that side of the field, requiring only your left side OL to win their single blocks to create a chunk gain for Henderson, which they got.  

Those are the tactics that opponents have to watch out for. Ohio State loves pre snap motion, and it's really all about spreading the players out to create open space, and then running a playmaker into that space. If we go back to the Garrett Wilson TD, it's the result of the deep safety being shifted to the opposite side of the field, because that's the side that Ruckert, JSN, and Olave are all on, which was picked up on by Ross Fulton of Buckeye Scoop (and a friend of MGoBlog):  

OSU taking advantage of C3 weak to the rotation (and C3 against tight trips). Know that the C3 MOFC S has to push to the trips side, buzz S held by the deep over. pic.twitter.com/t5mDlpSRut

— Ross Fulton (@RossRFulton) November 22, 2021

That leaves the other safety, who is playing much more shallow, as the one in the area. He's caught watching Stroud a little too long, the corner is beaten clean by Wilson, and the deep safety has way too far to run considering he was starting on the opposite side of the field. That creates a window, and Stroud drops it in.  

Deception is another consistent wrinkle, which we saw with the Wilson fake jet sweep earlier. They often run a naked bootleg where they get the crossers coming to Stroud's side, which is also easy money: 

OSU Pistol wide zone naked boot v Tampa 2. OSU continues to have success hitting the opposite side crosser. pic.twitter.com/MUQ2Z8VzB6

— Ross Fulton (@RossRFulton) November 22, 2021

It's a pretty difficult battle when the weapons are so plentiful. Key in on the run, and they can hit you with the deep ball. Drop everyone back to protect against the deep ball while still maintaining a front, and they can get it to Jaxon Smith-Njigba or Ruckert over the middle. Drop 8 in coverage, and they can hit you with Henderson and the OL.

 

So how in the world do you stop this offense? 

The fact of the matter is you can't stop it. You can try and contain it. As stated earlier, Penn State and Nebraska both had varying levels of success against the OSU offense, as did Minnesota. All three held the Buckeyes to under 500 yards, and the PSU performance was the best showing anyone's put up against Ohio State. If Michigan's defense can do what PSU's could, I think there's a very good chance Michigan wins this game. But that's a tall order. Some of the things Penn State did are notable. 

For one, they actually got pressure. Arnold Ebiketie, who you may recall from him brutalizing Ryan Hayes in the Michigan game, got several clean pass rush wins against projected first round LT Petit-Frere. Here's one: 

Here's an instance where a PSU stunt managed to push the line back towards Stroud and with good coverage, forced a throwaway on a crucial third down: 

Those two plays were the "stops" needed on third down to end drives. Michigan is going to need a few of those, and luckily that is a potential area for mismatch, if one exists. If Aidan Hutchinson and David Ojabo can get consistent pressure, Michigan's defense stands much more of a real shot at getting off the field and actually slowing this offense down. I know that both Jones and Petit-Frere are excellent, NFL-caliber offensive tackles, but Ojabo and Hutchinson are excellent, NFL-caliber pass rushers. If Michigan wants to win this game, they're gonna need some of their talent to outclass OSU's, and that's the most obvious position where it could happen (because it probably ain't happening in the secondary vs. WRs battle). 

Moreover, Penn State did a great job slowing the run by consistently winning the battle at the line of scrimmage in the run game until very late in the contest. This was rather shocking considering we were one week removed from when Penn State couldn't stop an interior run to save their lives against Illinois, post-Mustipher injury. Yet they managed to have their run defense, which often included the backside end looping around, grind the Buckeye run game to a halt on 3rd & short situations. This is just a clean win for the DTs against OSU's interior OL: 

Even when the Buckeyes got to the goal line, it was a slog getting into the end zone against this run defense: 

A lot of times it required a LB or a S making the right play to identify the gap and make a big tackle, which Penn State often got: 

The common thread between both PSU and Nebraska when facing OSU is that they did not let the run game have much success. OSU rushed for 4.7 YPC against the Nittany Lions (but 2.9 YPC if you remove the one long Henderson run) and just 3.0 YPC (including sacks) against Nebraska. Those were two good defensive fronts and they managed to get it done, forcing OSU to pass more often, generating some pressure, and throwing the Buckeyes off their game. The result? Only 26 points scored on offense against both teams. If Michigan could somehow do that, with the way the Wolverines' offense has been chugging along, they would be in very good position to win the game. 

 

Tying this all together 

Can Michigan do that? This is going to be a test for everyone on the defense, no question. Ojabo and Hutchinson have to lead the way, because if they aren't getting much pressure, the game is over before it starts. Whereas if they could regularly get pass rush wins vs. Jones or Petit-Frere/command extra OSU resources to stop, then the game could get interesting. But it's not just about Ojabo and Hutchinson. You need a level of play from Junior Colson, Josh Ross, and Nikhai Hill-Green that you've only gotten intermittently this season in terms of coverage and recognizing what's going on in the run game.

Michigan will also need DJ Turner II to continue being himself, but on top of that, sterling execution is needed from everyone in the secondary, because one mistake is fatal. I think it's quite obvious that Mike Macdonald will pull every trick out of the bag that he has, disguising and switching coverages often to try and confuse Stroud and induce a mistake or two. It will take the best game plan of Macdonald's career, but being an upgrade in terms of tailoring Michigan's defense to stop Ohio State is what Macdonald was hired to do.

Winning the game on the defensive side probably looks something like this: holding OSU to between 450 and 500 yards of offense, which then only translates to between 25-35 points. Anything better than that is an unreasonable expectation. There are way too many weapons and way too much talent. You're not going to shut this team out. And at some point, either one of the receivers or one of the backs is going to bust a 50-60 yard TD. It's inevitable. But limiting it to just one is huge. And making sure that the drives don't end in TDs is the biggest key to the game. 

Every team that kept Ohio State's offense in the yard did a good job getting off the field, even if it was in the red zone and meant conceding points. Nebraska forced five FGA to just two TDs, in addition to forcing two turnovers AND a turnover on downs. Penn State forced four FGA to just two TDs, in addition to a turnover AND a turnover on downs. Oregon didn't do well yardage-wise (612 yards) but managed to force three turnovers on downs, and got an INT of Stroud. That's the formula. Some combination of slamming the door in the red zone, a turnover or two, and then just a couple punts forced. If you can do that, and your offense (which we'll talk about on Friday) is able to grind the clock and limit OSU's offense to only ~9-10 total possessions, then you're probably in fighting shape. 

The one thing that is certain death is 7 TDs on 7 possessions to start the game. Just ask Mel Tucker.