jaxon smith-njigba

It's rivalry week. The biggest game you've waited all year for is finally here and it is a clash of the titans, 11-0 vs. 11-0. Michigan and Ohio State. To get things going we're starting on the offensive side of the ball, where the Buckeyes have a great unit and a number of familiar faces from last season. 

The Film: Ohio State has played a couple really good defenses this year and I wanted to focus in on the latter half of the season, which brings to mind Penn State and Iowa. Of the two, Iowa is definitely the better defense but unfortunately that game was a bit unusual, with Iowa's already-bad offense turning in an all-time horrible performance and gifting OSU exceptional field position on the majority of their drives. It is difficult to extrapolate much from a game in which the offense you're charting is starting every drive at the opponent's 25 yard line. So, I felt that Penn State was the more useful one to use, although I watched the extended highlights of the Iowa game as well as the most recent contest against Maryland and drew clips from both. In addition, I charted the Rutgers/OSU game back during Rutgers week and have some clips leftover. In other words, a lot of film went into this evaluation. 

The personnel: Click for big or here for PDF. 

The Buckeyes again sport one of the top offenses in the country, but the diagram is far less intimidating than last year's DEATH MACHINE diagram and the SP+ numbers back that up- their rating at the time of The Game last year on offense was 47.2, while this year's is 44.0. Last year they were 1st by a wide margin; this year they're fourth behind Tennessee, USC, and UCLA. 

At QB we see the return of CJ Stroud for what is all but certain to be his final home game in the scarlet and gray. Stroud has completed another very good season and is among the foremost contenders to win the Heisman Trophy in a couple weeks. He has completed 66.4% of his passes for 9.7 Y/A, 35 TD to 4 INT. When the season concludes, Stroud will most definitely enter the NFL Draft and should be picked in the top ten slots, possibly as high as 1st overall. 

The RB position is littered with question marks and injuries, as it is for Michigan. Miyan Williams has been their best back this season, a hefty bowling ball that requires several men to be brought down. The problem has been the injuries, which have limited him throughout the year. He missed the Michigan State game, returned to get 10 carries against Iowa, then got hurt again against PSU (2 carries). Williams returned the following weekend to shoulder a sizable load against Northwestern and Indiana, but then was carted off against the Hoosiers and did not suit up against Maryland. There is optimism he can go against Michigan, but we will largely be in the dark about him until there is further clarification. 

Last year's primary starter TreVeyon Henderson is back at RB, but his stock has fallen some, with injuries contributing to him losing his star. Henderson's YPC is down a full 1.5 from last season and after sustaining an injury at the end of October, has played just one of the past three games. That was last week against Maryland, where he put up a dismal first half effort on the ground (more of an impact in the receiving game) before exiting and being seen on the sideline in a walking boot. When healthy, he's a lightning fast north-south runner, but he is likely not healthy whether or not he plays in The Game. Your author is higher on Williams because of his ability to break tackles but it's reasonable to assume that, like Michigan, neither RB will be 100% even if both play. 

The injuries to both Henderson and Williams have forced Dallan Hayden into the limelight, a true freshman who was just outside the top 250 of the composite. Hayden has filled in a fair bit this year with the injuries but got his chance to shine against the Terps and took advantage of it. If Williams and Henderson cannot go, Hayden will be next man up to get a lot of the carries. 

[AFTER THE JUMP: Ohio State's next receiving MUTANT]

Previously: Quarterback, Running Backs 

We're back for Part #3 of the The Enemy, Ranked 2022 series and today will be an all-encompassing look at the receivers of the opponents on Michigan's schedule. For this piece, we're folding WRs and TEs into one, and will be taking into account the sorts of offenses the teams run. Teams like Maryland and Ohio State will have a greater focus on WRs, while teams like Iowa will have more attention given to the TE position. 

12. Connecticut 

The Huskies return to the cellar for receivers thanks to a depth chart with a lack of returning production at WR, as well as any degree of FBS-caliber talent. Keelan Marion, the returning leading receiver last season for UCONN, is back after hauling in 28 catches for 474 yards (16.9 average) and 5 TD. He's alright, but the problem lies with the players beneath him (as well as the general talent level of the roster). Cameron Ross had an excellent season in 2019 in Storrs, but the Huskies opted not to play in 2020 and he played just two games a year ago, meaning that it's been many years since Ross was an effective receiver.

Connecticut has added Nigel Fitzgerald as a transfer from Old Dominion and he is in a similar boat to Ross, with some production to speak of in 2019, but just one catch since then. Kylish Hays comes in as a true freshman at WR, but the problem with all these guys is their baseline talent level: none of these four players ranked in the top 1,500 overall players in their given recruiting classes. Brandon Niemenski returns at TE but he will be moving into the starter role for the first time, with just 12 catches last season. He was also #2,690 in the composite as a recruit, so that tells you where this group is at. Basically, this is a group without many returning starters from 2021 and due to a complete dearth of talent, it's hard to project much of anything positive here, hence the #12 ranking. 

[AFTER THE JUMP: the four teams with real WR/TE rooms]

Welllllllll it's #HateWeek everybody and that means it's time to examine the most fearsome unit in America, the Ohio State offense. As it stands presently, the OSU offense is a mindboggling product that can rip a defense to shreds by having the best talent of any offense in the country, which is perfectly calibrated to fit its scheme. The numbers are staggering: 559.5 yards per game and 47.2 points per game. 7.9 yards per play, a full 0.7 yards better than the next best team. They just hung 56 points on the only team that Michigan has lost to this season, including seven touchdowns on their first seven possessions in that game. Three future first-round NFL receivers. Two probable first-round NFL offensive tackles. A Heisman candidate at QB. Two running backs who average >7 yards per carry. Their SP+ offensive rating is 47.2, a full 4.4 points better than #2 Alabama and starting to challenge 2019 LSU as perhaps the greatest offense of the analytics era. How the f*** do you beat these guys? 

Let's try our best to examine a path to keeping the offense in the yard, while also pointing out the many places this sociopathic grizzly bear wielding a flamethrower could completely incinerate your defense. 

The Film: There are some roadmaps to stopping OSU's offense, between Nebraska, Penn State, and Oregon, three teams that all kept OSU under 30 points on offense (the Buckeyes notched a defensive TD against PSU to get over 30). That said, it would also be wildly unfair to use just one of those games, because it would depict a more neutered Buckeye offense and not the one that has obliterated most opposing defenses it has faced. Normally I stick to just one game, but for this column, since it's in preparation for the biggest game of the season, I said "why not just go crazy with it?": 

So, while I only graded the PSU game, I'm going to draw upon tape from the Michigan State game as a way to show the Buckeye offense in much more dangerous light, while also incorporating clips from a number of other games. This will be the longest and most detailed FFFF of the season, but that's what a week with these stakes calls for, eh? 

Personnel:

[Seth note: I previously sent Alex a version of this with Turner starred and Ojabo shielded before I got too deep into the defensive UFR. Turner...did not make it. Ojabo is a 1st rounder on his potential but this game emphasized a major hole in his game currently, and I didn't feel it was right to put him on the level the other shields on this graphic are playing at right now.] 

PAIN. 

CJ Stroud has stepped into the QB job vacated by Justin Fields and has put together a dominant season, delivering very good balls to the wide receiver group that is almost always open. His utter obliteration of Michigan State last week (32/35 for 432 yards, 6 TD, 0 INT (!!!!!!!!!)) has made him the Vegas favorite for the Heisman, and we will certainly discuss him at length later in the piece. Stroud never comes off the field unless the game is over, but I still decided to include Kyle McCord on the chart because I was reminded that each of the last three Michigan-Ohio State meetings have featured the backup QB on the field for some (non-garbage time) stretch of the game for Ohio State. McCord is only a true freshman and he has looked like one this season. 

The Buckeyes entered the season with Miyan Williams and Master Teague III sharing the starting responsibilities but as your author predicted in August, true freshman TreVeyon Henderson ascended to the starting job rather quickly. He's been electric as the lead back, with 14 TDs and 1098 rushing yards on 7.3 YPC, taking the holes his offensive line gives him and turning them into home runs with the blazing speed that his 5* status conveys. Williams and Teague do not have Henderson's raw tools and that's why he's become the JK Dobbins to their Mike Weber. Henderson does play a role in the passing game, having hauled in 18 catches for 231 yards and three additional scores on the season. 

It will take years of hindsight and an examination of how these players end up in the NFL to really determine whether this is the best NCAA wide receiver group of all-time, but boy it feels like it has a chance. LSU's 2019 group of Ja'Marr Chase and Justin Jefferson were legendary, but this is a fully three-headed monster that also has impeccable depth. Chris Olave has been terrorizing the B1G for years and passed up a first round draft slot to return to Columbus so he could rescue his grandmother who was locked in Ryan Day's basement. Olave leads the receiving corps in TDs, but trails in the other statistical categories to Garrett Wilson, the lightning fast outside receiver who torched Michigan as a true freshman in 2019, as well as Jaxon Smith-Njigba, a sophomore slot type who Michigan has yet to see. Both Wilson and JSN were 5* recruits who have accented Olave to put together this unstoppable tank. Olave and Wilson will be first rounders in April (unless Day also abducts Wilson's grandma) and JSN seems to be a lock to be one in April 2023 already. 

Those three have combined for 73% of OSU's pass yardage this season, but the remaining 27% is scattered between a litany of other talented options, including the next wave of guys who will be gut-punching the B1G for the next several years. That includes Emeka Egbuka, a true freshman who was the nation's #10 overall recruit this spring (and is also the team's kick returner), Marvin Harrison Jr., son of that Marvin Harrison and a top 100 recruit himself, and Julian Fleming, who was the nation's #3 overall recruit last spring. The amount of weapons that Ohio State has at the skill positions is so disturbing that the FBI ought to have put the team on the terror watchlist by now. 

If there's one area that isn't quite up to snuff with the rest of the team, it's tight end. Jeremy Ruckert was *surprise* a top 50 recruit himself (and a Michigan target) once upon a time, but he's become only alright. A decent receiving option but nothing to write home about (I know that me saying that means he will have 200 yards on Saturday). The backup TEs include Cade Stover, who comes on as more of a blocker in two TE sets, and then half-TE, half-FB Mitch Rossi, who actually started his NCAA career as a linebacker. Rossi comes on in the situational moments when OSU goes under center. 

The offensive line is anchored by the tackle positions, where the Buckeyes could have both OTs get drafted in the top 45 picks this spring. That tandem is former 5* (and Michigan target) LT Nicholas Petit-Frere, as well as mountainous (6'8, 360) RT Dawand Jones, who both possess sparkling PFF grades and have provided clean pockets for Stroud all year long. The guards are not as highly thought of from an NFL standpoint but have been good too, 5* RG Paris Johnson Jr. and LG Thayer Munford. Munford is a name you probably remember, a multi-year starter at tackle who they shifted inside to make room for Jones at RT. The center spot is held by Luke Wypler, a highly touted recruit who has settled in as a starter this season. The OL has had a great bill of clean health this season, so swingman Matthew Jones is the only reserve worth discussing. Jones has been very good this season when called upon either at OT or OG. 

[AFTER THE JUMP: why can't there be any cyans?????]