Fall Roster Overanalysis 2019 Comment Count

Seth August 5th, 2019 at 4:28 PM

THE PHONEBOOKS ARE HERE

This morning the football program updated the weights and heights of the official spring roster, which previously published measurements from last fall, and then at 3 today they published the rest. That gift gave me enough lead time to arrange my annual weight gain/loss chart, without all the "here's the new walk-ons and numbers" analysis the American Society of Completionists demands.

Remember the rules: All weight gain is muscle, all weight lost was fat, and all guys who remained the same did so by replacing fat with muscle. I'll highlight the changes worth talking about.

Freshmen Note: Early enrollees' spring weights, and fall enrollees' weights that were previously on MGoBlue are listed under 2018, since those are mostly from high school weigh-ins.

QUARTERBACK
Player Class GS Pos 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 15 to 16 16 to 17 17 to 18 18 to 19
Shea Patterson 2018* 13 QB   200 203 205 202   +3 +2 -3
Dylan McCaffrey 2017 0 QB     199 217 220     +18 +3
Joe Milton 2018 0 QB     220 234 245     +14 +11
Cade McNamara 2019   QB       206 205       -1
RUNNING BACK
Player Class GS Pos 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 15 to 16 16 to 17 17 to 18 18 to 19
Tru Wilson 2016 0 RB   190 200 202 200   +10 +2 -2
Christian Turner 2018 0 RB     185 200 200     +15 -
Hassan Haskins 2018 0 RB     207 212 220     +5 +8
Ben VanSumeren 2018 0 FB     232 236 236     +4 -
Zach Charbonnet 2019   RB       222 220       -2
RECEIVER
Player Class GS Pos 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 15 to 16 16 to 17 17 to 18 18 to 19
Nate Schoenle 2016 1 WR   185 192 202 206   +7 +10 +4
Donovan Peoples-Jones 2017 17 WR     199 208 208     +9 -
Nico Collins 2017 12 WR     206 218 222     +12 +4
Tarik Black 2017 4 WR     206 215 215     +9 -
Ronnie Bell 2018 0 WR     174 182 184     +8 +2
Cornelius Johnson 2019   WR       195 209       +14
Mike Sainristil 2019   SL       179 183       +4
Giles Jackson 2019   SL       183 188       +5
George Johnson 2019   SL       180 193       +13
TIGHT END
Player Class GS Pos 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 15 to 16 16 to 17 17 to 18 18 to 19
Sean McKeon 2016 16 TE   240 248 251 246   +8 +3 -5
Nick Eubanks 2016 5 TE   236 240 252 256   +4 +12 +4
Mustapha Muhammad 2018 0 TE     244 245 261     +1 +16
Luke Schoonmaker 2018 0 TE     229 231 242     +2 +11
Erick All 2019   TE       225 229       +4
OFFENSIVE LINE
Player Class GS Pos 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 15 to 16 16 to 17 17 to 18 18 to 19
Jon Runyan Jr. 2015 14 LT 275 304 298 310 321 +29 -6 +12 +11
Ben Bredeson 2016 33 LG   310 308 320 325   -2 +12 +5
Michael Onwenu 2016 22 RG   350 350 350 350   - - -
Stephen Spanellis 2016 0 C/G   335 307 300 295   -28 -7 -5
Andrew Vastardis 2016 0 G   305 311 317 319   +6 +6 +2
Cesar Ruiz 2017 18 C     316 319 319     +3 -
Andrew Stueber 2017 2 T     314 323 334     +9 +11
Jalen Mayfield 2018 0 T     275 296 319     +21 +23
Ryan Hayes 2018 0 T     262 271 299     +9 +28
Chuck Filiaga 2017 0 G     345 341 341     -4 -
Joel Honigford 2017 0 G     275 295 284     +20 -11
Nolan Rumler 2019   C       290 321       +31
Zach Carpenter 2019   G       310 320       +10
Karsen Barnhart 2019   G/T       273 301       +28
Jack Stewart 2019   G       280 291       +11
Trente Jones 2019   T       282 294       +12
Trevor Keegan 2019   T       310 316       +6
DEFENSIVE TACKLE
Player Class GS Pos 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 15 to 16 16 to 17 17 to 18 18 to 19
Carlo Kemp 2016 12 NT   255 264 280 286   +9 +16 +6
Michael Dwumfour 2016 2 DT   300 290 285 282   -10 -5 -3
Ben Mason 2017 2 DT     251 254 270     +3 +16
Donovan Jeter 2017 0 DT     288 308 290     +20 -18
Phillip Paea 2017 0 NT     275 296 302     +21 +6
Mazi Smith 2019   DT       303 305       +2
Chris Hinton 2019   NT       265 303       +38
Michael Morris 2019   DT       260 262       +2
DEFENSIVE END
Player Class GS Pos 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 15 to 16 16 to 17 17 to 18 18 to 19
Mike Danna 2019* 16* WDE 238 250 250 257 261 +12  -  +7 +4
Josh Uche 2016 0 SAM   217 226 238 250   +9 +12 +12
Kwity Paye 2017 4 SDE     241 260 277     +19 +17
Aidan Hutchinson 2018 0 SDE     258 268 278     +10 +10
Luiji Vilain 2017 0 WDE     242 255 244     +13 -11
Julius Welschof 2018 0 SDE     253 253 278     - +25
Taylor Upshaw 2018 0 WDE     240 246 240     +6 -6
David Ojabo 2019   SDE       252 245       -7
Gabe Newburg 2019   SDE       237 250       +13
LINEBACKER
Player Class GS Pos 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 15 to 16 16 to 17 17 to 18 18 to 19
Jordan Glasgow 2015 2 VIP 200 210 210 223 226 +10 - +13 +3
Khaleke Hudson 2016 23 VIP   205 205 220 220   - +15 -
Devin Gil 2016 14 WLB   230 220 231 236   -10 +11 +5
Josh Ross 2017 1 MLB     229 225 232     -4 +7
Jordan Anthony 2017 0 MLB     236 245 245     +9 -
Cameron McGrone 2018 0 WLB     225 228 232     +3 +4
Michael Barrett 2018 0 WLB     215 224 227     +9 +3
Charles Thomas 2019   MLB       222 233       +11
Anthony Solomon 2019   VIP       190 205       +15
Joey Velazquez 2019   SAM       205 213       +8
SAFETY
Player Class GS Pos 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 15 to 16 16 to 17 17 to 18 18 to 19
Josh Metellus 2016 25 SS   204 199 204 218   -5 +5 +14
J'Marick Woods 2017 1 FS     203 210 213     +7 +3
Brad Hawkins 2017 1 NK     204 213 218     +9 +5
Sammy Faustin 2018 0 SS     190 187 195     -3 +8
German Green 2018 0 FS     178 175 180     -3 +5
Daxton Hill 2019   FS       186 190       +4
Quinten Johnson 2019   SS       190 198       +8
CORNERBACK
Player Class GS Pos 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 15 to 16 16 to 17 17 to 18 18 to 19
Lavert Hill 2016 25 CB   168 177 181 182   +9 +4 +1
Ambry Thomas 2017 0 CB     179 183 182     +4 -1
Jaylen Kelly-Powell 2017 0 CB     173 184 180     +11 -4
Vincent Gray 2018 0 CB     180 184 185     +4 +1
Gemon Green 2018 0 CB     175 174 180     -1 +6
Jalen Perry 2019   CB       185 190       +5
DJ Turner 2019   CB       165 180       +15

[Hit THE JUMP for the position-by-position excessively optimistic obsessiveness]

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Quarterback: At 245 Joe Milton is a…I really don't like to say this word guys…unit. While Ninja Shea and his gazelle of a backup are in the way for now, that redshirt freshman behind them remains quite an intriguing prospect down the road. I seem to recall another team that had a rocket-armed giant third string QB who worked out sorta well.

Running Back: I'm a little disappointed that Christian Turner isn't a bit heavier since he looked scrawny last year, but really there's no change here and there wasn't expected to be.

Receiver: Ditto. And like Turner I wanted to see a few more pounds on Ronnie Bell going into his second year. It's nice to see that Cornelius Johnson came in at 209, which is sized to play immediately. If it looks like they won't get at least two guys back from this year's trio, I'd expect them to work Johnson in.

Tight End: One of the offseason notes in my first Football Bits draft of the fall is the staff is really happy with McKeon, who really did drop fat and build muscle to come back at what they think his ideal playing weight should be.

Both redshirt freshmen really progressed. Mustapha Muhammad looked a year away from competing last year. Now he's up to 261 on the roster. If he's still a top passing threat, that's getting into Kaiju territory. Luke Schoonmaker was up 11 pounds, but at 242 he's still on the long-term plan.

Offensive Tackle: Collectively, the current OT two-deep has added 124 pounds  in two years.

  • Starting left tackle Jon Runyan Jr. isn't any taller but he's up 33 pounds since Herbert got here.
  • Andrew Steuber is now 334—in case you were worried Onwenu wouldn't have a bash brother now that Juwann Bushell-Beatty's gone.
  • But Not So Fast My Friend: Redshirt freshman Jalen Mayfield is 319, up 44(!) pounds from when he arrived, and another 20 pounds from his junior to senior years of high school. The transformation is complete.
  • Redshirt freshman Ryan Hayes is 1 pound short of 300. He was 250 pounds and listed as a tight end when he got here a year ago.

A reminder that Hayes and Mayfield were "Frey types" and the question with those is usually whether they can gain the weight. Ben Herbert and Abigail O'Connor, come out and take a bow. Frey-type true freshman Trente Jones (294) arrived 12 pounds heavier than expected, and could be ready to compete as early as next year.

Guard and Center: Onwenu has finally completed his long journey from Jennifer Lawrence Okay dot gif "350" to 350.

image

There was a lot of same over the rest of the two-deep. I don't know what to make of Chuck Filiaga staying at exactly 341 because he came in a break-down-then-build-up guy. Reading Joel Honigford is down to 284 is a disappointment because he came in one of those super-flexy prospects to hang muscle on. He was 295 last year, and seemed poised to pass 300 and be in the first group competing to replace Bredeson and Onwenu next year. This is a A LOT to read into a silly weight metric, but I was burned by following Lloyd Carr's OG recruiting back when that entailed buying magazines to do it, and recall all too many guys who came in at 270 and got stuck at 285. It'll be interesting to see him on the field this year, or if someone else gets on the field before him.

Speaking of that competition: wow the freshmen reported big. Nolan Rumler is already 321(!!) to go with the chatter he looks ready to see the field immediately. The other guy they said will definitely get his four was Zach Carpenter, who arrived at 320. Karsen Barnhart was supposed to be a Frey-type but already Herberted up past 300. Even Jack Stewart came in near plausible playing weight. That sound you hear is Michigan State's ultra-light line looking at the pile of sandwiches we had prepared like "you gonna finish that?"

Say the words and I'll give you a piece.

Defensive Tackle: The three-tech spot saw the most movement. Michael Dwumfour was working back from injury so it's not surprising he wasn't able to add much—282 is still a bit light. I'm also worried about Carlo Kemp, who once played linebacker for a few snaps, because I thought the plan was to have him bulk up more to take nose tackle. He maxed out at 286. That's bigger than a Bo middle guard, but pretty dang small for even a Renes-style modern nose. Reminder that his YMRMFSPA was Jibreel Black, who played DT his senior year, and was really too small to be doing so, because Michigan oddly wasn't willing to play Quintin Washington.

The spring hype winners both shifted dramatically, though in opposite directions. Donovan Jeter dropped 16 pounds after popping above 300 last year. That could be a good thing since they're expecting him to play 3-tech and try to get some pass rush. BEN MASON is still listed at DT and is up 16 pounds, which suggests he's been preparing. At 270 he's still not an every-down DT, and my guess is that move is a specialty thing that doesn't pull ol' Murder Face away from fullbackian things permanently.

The good news: Chris Hinton arrived over 300 pounds, which is LET'S GO weight. [Remembers when sites wouldn't re-rank him as a DT until the very end].

Defensive End: Here now we've got some interesting gains, because Brown has been stockpiling guys for the Rashan Gary/Chris Wormley position of Anchor, which is more of a DE/DT tweener job that lines up inside a TE than an MSU or OSU-style DE who lines up outside tight ends and does the most pass rushing. Kwity Paye (+17) and Aidan Hutchinson (+10) are now both in that 277-280 range where they could plausibly play inside, and certainly can handle B gaps from the Anchor position. Neither are weakside ends anymore. Behind them, our German mogulist Julius Welschof added 25(!!!) pounds to get into the same range as those guys. It's possible any of these guys could grow into 3-techs, or be used as such now against lighter/spread-er teams. Another 13 pounds on Gabe Newburg since he enrolled in spring are a good sign for a similar reason: his best self is a zone-murdering DT with some pass rush.

We've lost some girth on the Winovich side. Taylor Upshaw is down 6 pounds when he was hoped to grow into an anchor or tackle—at 240 he doesn't seem ready for much more than spot snaps as a pass rusher. Luigi Vilain is down 11 pounds, to 244. That's more of a mystery because he wasn't able to work out much last year, but 244 for him sounds more like a Uche role than the every-down player Winovich became.

Speaking of Josh Uche, he's past the 250 mark (up 12 pounds) that I mentally consider the beginning of the curve for guys who can stand to TE/T double-teams. Uche was 217 when he first stepped on campus so he's come a very long way. With Danna around Uche doesn't have to be on the field every down, but it's no longer a certainty that our best pass rusher has to wait for passing downs to ply his trade.

Linebacker: Not a lot of movement here, and not a lot expected after last year, when Hudson (+15), Glasgow (+13), Gil (+11) and Anthony (+9) were all growing from tweeners into the right size for regular work. Josh Ross (+7) is up to 232, a smallish MLB, but then that's the style these days. Cam McGrone didn't have far to go but he's also past the 230 mark. Michael Barrett is close at 227 to go with his official move from viper to the inside linebacker depth chart. All three freshmen arrived well larger than expected, with Charles Thomas already playing weight (233) for MLB, Anthony Solomon at least at big safety size and into the Viper range, and Joey Velazquez the same size as Uche when he got here.

Safety: Similar story to linebacker, except the senior Josh Metellus (+14) is now a very buff 218, echoing the (arguably unhelpful) transformation of last year's defensive co-captain Tyree Kinnel from normal-sized junior to rocked up senior. It's good to see Sammy Faustin, a member of 2017's Team Long and Lanky, who's up 8 pounds to 195, though the question with him is more one of whether he's got the speed and agility to play man against slots.

Cornerback: The good news is Ambry Thomas is listed at 182, just one pound below where he was last year and the same weight as Lavert Hill. The bad news is I had a report he was in the upper 190s by the bowl season last year, so he's down perhaps as much as 17 pounds from the mysterious stomach ailment. Also Jaylen Kelly-Powell lost four pounds, putting him at just 180. In fact the heaviest cornerback on the roster right now is 190-pound true freshman Jalen Perry. It's not that they're not climbing—Gemon Green leads the group at +6—and you don't expect corners to grow that much. But I was hoping one of the tall guys would fill out more. The last bullet here is DJ Turner II, who at least isn't the 165 his profile used to show.

The New Numbers

Not counting walk-ons, here are the fall enrollees' numbers for your rostering enjoyment:

OFFENSE:

  • 6 –Cornelius Johnson (other than Je'Ron Stokes I can't think of another #6 WR)
  • 15 – Giles Jackson (Breaston)
  • 22 – George Johnson, who's listed at WR. (Bo-era wingback number: Glenn Doughty, Ralph Clayton, also Darryl Stonum)
  • 52 – Karsen Barnhart (Mason Cole, Rod Payne, Steve Schilling, Ricky Barnum, Jim Czirr, Chris Ziemann)
  • 53 – Trente Jones (Tom Cecchini, Jerry Goebel, Jim Hackett, Guy Murdock)
  • 55 – Nolan Rumler (Andy Christopfel, David Dawson)
  • 58 – Zach Carpenter (John Ghindia, Bill Muir, John Padjen, Chris Bryant,
  • 70 – Jack Stewart (Arnie Simkus, Nolan Ulizio, George Genyk, James D. Hall, Jeremy Ciulla, Mark Erhardt)
  • 77 – Trevor Keegan (Long, Lewan, Jansen, Art Walker, Guy Curtis, Trezelle, Grant Newsome, Will Ohlenroth, Tony Pape)

DEFENSE:

  • 4 – Mike Danna (Reuben Jones)
  • 5 – DJ Turner II (Peppers, Courtney Avery, Charles Stewart, James Whitley)
  • 9 – Joey Velazquez (McCray, Marrell Evans)
  • 10 – Anthony Solomon (Devin Bush, Derek Howard was the HSP of his day)
  • 13 – Charles Thomas (Larry Stevens but he moved to DE. Keith Bostic but he moved to DB)
  • 15 – Chris Hinton (Chase Winovich)
  • 23 – Quinten Johnson (Tyree Kinnel, Dave Bedsun, John Zingales, Woody Hankins, Louis Kovacs, father of Jordan)
  • 30 – Daxton Hill (Brad Cochran, Freddy Baer, Thomas "Prison Abs" Gordon, Markus Curry, Andre Weathers, Stevie Brown for a year)
  • 80 – Michael Morris (Alan Branch)

Comments

Grampy

August 5th, 2019 at 4:59 PM ^

Moody's up 20?  That seems like a lot for a kicker, but he did have better distance at the spring game.  Wonder when Nordin is going to grow up?

Double-D

August 5th, 2019 at 5:28 PM ^

Aubrey Solomon with a good attitude would be looking really nice on this roster right about now. 

I think Mazi is going to play right away and be a leader on the line as the season progresses.   Hinton’s weight gain is great news.  He is going to play a key role as well. 

We may be watching the beginning of the best interior duo I can recall.  I am excited for these two kids. 

Double-D

August 6th, 2019 at 11:34 PM ^

We will see.  I get the challenge for Freshman at that position.

He is physically ready right now by size and strength.   He has really good quickness and plays low.  He already weighs more than Kemp, Jeter, and Dwumfour and didn’t have to bulk up to get there.   He came in early and and enters camp with six months of UofMs weight training under his belt.

He is going to get an opportunity because we need the snaps.  

WindyCityBlue

August 5th, 2019 at 5:40 PM ^

Has someone already done the weights of the starting OL for Wisconsin, ND, MSU, PSU and OSU? 

I gotta say, I’m loving the weight of our OL (assuming this is good weight). We’ve been called out by opponents regarding how small our line was in the past. (I believe Cris Carter said this). You can say this now. 

ShadowStorm33

August 5th, 2019 at 5:53 PM ^

Vilain and Metellus jump out as concerning. I was hoping Vilain could get past his injury issues and show off his potential. Maybe he put on bad weight while he was hurt that he’s shedding, but dropping into SAM-tweener range is not the direction you want to see him going his junior year. 

With Metellus, I hope he didn’t bulk up too much and lose speed and explosiveness. He was already a big hitter, and the Kinnel worries are apt.

iMBlue2

August 5th, 2019 at 6:29 PM ^

Anyone else getting the sense that when all is said and done Shea is going to have been the weakest of the Patterson, Mcaffery, Milton triumvirate?  And that can only be a positive thing.

Joby

August 5th, 2019 at 10:32 PM ^

He didn't run much in HS, but he looked good running last year in a limited sample. I hope Milton becomes another excellent Michigan QB, and I believe he will. However, if he does gets passed by a younger QB, I'd love for Jay Riemersma to give him a call and tell him about his story. At that size, and with a QB knowledge base, it would be worth considering.

CalifExile

August 6th, 2019 at 3:16 PM ^

1. I didn't say you will never see them again.

2. Gentry switched before a) the Mississippi players were given immediate eligibility because the poor innocents didn't realize Freeze was lying to them; b) Justin Fields was given immediate eligibility because someone called him a bad name (never mind that the individual who said it was immediately kicked off the Georgia baseball team); and c) Tate Martell was given immediate eligibility because his coaches liked a new player better than they liked him.

3. Gentry was advised by a coach who is regarded as a straight shooter who knows what it takes to play QB in the NFL and is a good judge whether someone is likely to excel as a TE.

Mongo

August 5th, 2019 at 9:06 PM ^

Seth - you have f-ing killed it.  This is by far the best UM roster content on the entire freaking internet universe ... even the pay sites like ESPN, Rivals, etc are just slow dumb and [generally] happy ... your work here is the Leaders and Best.  Go Blue !!!